Upside case
Bull case
$393+38.5%
MCD would need investors to value it at roughly 30x earnings — about 8x more generous than today's 22x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
McDonald's Corporation (MCD) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
62
analysts
36 bullish · 1 bearish · 62 covering MCD
Strong Buy
0
Buy
36
Hold
25
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$352
+24.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$157 – $393
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
62
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
21.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $202.3B
MCD price targets
Three scenarios for where MCD stock could go
Current
~$284
Confidence
60 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $284
Bear
$157
Base
$340
Bull
$393
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$340+19.6%
At 26x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$157-44.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 10x multiple contraction could push MCD down roughly 45% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
McDonald's Corporation
MCD · NYSEConsumer CyclicalRestaurantsDecember year-end
McDonald's is a global fast-food restaurant chain serving burgers, fries, chicken items, breakfast foods, and beverages. It generates revenue primarily through franchise royalties and fees (about 60% of revenue) and company-operated restaurant sales (about 40%), with real estate income from leasing properties to franchisees being a significant profit driver. Its competitive moat lies in its unparalleled global brand recognition, massive scale, and sophisticated real estate strategy that creates a durable income stream.
Market Cap
$202.3B
Revenue TTM
$26.3B
Net Income TTM
$8.4B
Net Margin
32.0%
MCD Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$2.67/$2.66
Revenue
$6.0B/$6.1B
Q3 2025
EPS
$3.19/$3.14
Revenue
$6.8B/$6.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.22/$3.33
Revenue
$7.1B/$7.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.12/$3.05
Revenue
$7.0B/$6.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $2.67/$2.66 | +0.4% | $6.0B/$6.1B | -2.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.19/$3.14 | +1.6% | $6.8B/$6.7B | +2.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.22/$3.33 | -3.3% | $7.1B/$7.1B | -0.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.12/$3.05 | +2.3% | $7.0B/$6.8B | +2.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$28.1B
+7.0% YoY
FY2
$29.1B
+3.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$12.87
+9.5% YoY
FY2
$13.62
+5.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$7.4B
FCF Margin: 28.1%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.75
Expected Revenue
$6.5B
MCD beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
MCD Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $25.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
High-Growth Markets
48.7%
+2.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
International Operated Markets
48.7%
+2.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
High-Growth Markets is the largest disclosed segment at 48.7% of FY 2024 revenue, up 2.0% YoY.
International Operated Markets is the largest reported region at 48.7%, up 2.0% YoY.
MCD Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $270 — implies -5.7% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
5.7%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MCD
24.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
In line with benchmark
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
MCD
24.9x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+27% premium
vs MCD 5Y Avg P/E
Today
24.9x
vs
5Y Average
28.7x
13% discount
Forward PE
21.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
+13%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
+42%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
24.9x
S&P 500
25.2x
-1%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+27%
5Y Avg
28.7x
-13%
PEG Ratio
3.26x
S&P 500
1.75x
+87%
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
+242%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
18.3x
S&P 500
15.3x
+20%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
+61%
5Y Avg
20.6x
-11%
Price/FCF
30.3x
S&P 500
21.3x
+42%
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
+102%
5Y Avg
32.0x
-5%
Price/Sales
7.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+149%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+997%
5Y Avg
8.4x
-7%
Dividend Yield
2.37%
S&P 500
1.88%
+26%
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
+11%
5Y Avg
2.16%
+10%
| Metric | MCD | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg MCD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 21.5x | 19.1x+13% | 15.2x+42% | — |
| Trailing PE | 24.9x | 25.2x | 19.6x+27% | 28.7x-13% |
| PEG Ratio | 3.26x | 1.75x+87% | 0.95x+242% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.3x | 15.3x+20% | 11.4x+61% | 20.6x-11% |
| Price/FCF | 30.3x | 21.3x+42% | 15.0x+102% | 32.0x |
| Price/Sales | 7.8x | 3.1x+149% | 0.7x+997% | 8.4x |
| Dividend Yield | 2.37% | 1.88% | 2.15% | 2.16% |
MCD trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMCD Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
MCD generates $7.4B in free cash flow at a 28.1% margin — 19.3% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 3.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$26.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+1.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
57.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
46.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
32.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$11.75
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$7.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
28.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
19.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
13.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.1B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$50.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
6.9× FCF
~6.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.8%
Dividend
2.4%
Buyback
1.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.8B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$6.75
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
59.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
722M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageMCD Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Debt Burden
McDonald's long‑term debt stands at ~$39.97 B as of 2025, which, while covered by earnings, heightens sensitivity to rising interest rates. A sharp increase in borrowing costs could compress net income and limit capital‑allocation flexibility.
High Risk
Supply Chain Disruptions
Interruptions from shortages, price spikes, geopolitical tensions, or natural disasters can raise ingredient costs and delay store openings. Such disruptions could erode operating margins and delay franchise expansion plans.
High Risk
Interest Rate & Currency Fluctuations
With more than 50% of sales generated abroad, McDonald's earnings are exposed to foreign‑exchange swings and global interest‑rate moves. Adverse currency movements could reduce reported earnings and increase hedging costs.
Medium
Pricing Wars
Intense competition and aggressive promotions among fast‑food chains raise the risk of price wars, which could erode gross margins. Sustained margin pressure would compress profitability and impact dividend sustainability.
Medium
Food Safety Concerns
Outbreaks such as E. coli discoveries can damage consumer trust, trigger recalls, and lead to regulatory fines. A single high‑profile incident could depress sales and harm brand equity.
Medium
Cybersecurity Threats
Cyberattacks from third parties could compromise customer data, disrupt operations, and expose McDonald's to legal liabilities. A significant breach could result in costly remediation and reputational damage.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MCD Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
72% Free Cash Flow Conversion
McDonald’s converts 72% of operating cash into free cash flow, enabling aggressive share buybacks and a consistent dividend program that boosts total shareholder returns.
Emerging Market Expansion
The company’s focus on global growth in emerging markets drives long‑term international revenue growth; McDonald’s dominates these markets and consistently outperforms the S&P 500.
Digital Adoption Drives Margins
Investments in digital ordering, loyalty programs, and in‑restaurant technology are expected to lift operating margins and free cash flow, supporting higher profitability.
Under‑$3 Menu Value Strategy
The “Under $3 Menu” and other value deals target budget‑conscious consumers, stabilizing U.S. traffic—especially among lower‑income guests—and defending market share amid competition.
Resilient Operating Margins
McDonald’s absorbs rising input and labor costs while maintaining a high, stable operating margin that is well above competitors, preserving profitability.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MCD Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$284.10
52W Range Position
3%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$282.40
+0.6% from the low
52-Week High
$341.75
-16.9% from the high
1 Month
-8.28%
3 Month
-13.16%
YTD
-6.3%
1 Year
-10.3%
3Y CAGR
-1.4%
5Y CAGR
+3.9%
10Y CAGR
+8.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MCD vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
21.5x
vs 19.0x median
+13% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.0%
vs +7.8% median
-10% below peer median
Net Margin
32.0%
vs 8.4% median
+280% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MCD MCD McDonald's Corporation | $202.3B | 21.5x | +7.0% | 32.0% | Buy | +24.0% |
YUM YUM Yum! Brands, Inc. | $43.1B | 23.1x | +7.8% | 20.5% | Hold | +11.8% |
QSR QSR Restaurant Brands International Inc. | $26.7B | 19.0x | +10.7% | 10.0% | Buy | +8.5% |
WEN WEN The Wendy's Company | $1.3B | 11.5x | +1.9% | 8.4% | Hold | +16.2% |
JAC JACK Jack in the Box Inc. | $261M | 4.0x | -7.0% | -5.2% | Hold | +46.1% |
SHA SHAK Shake Shack Inc. | $3.9B | 70.0x | +15.8% | 3.2% | Hold | +25.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MCD Dividend and Capital Return
MCD returns 3.8% total yield, led by a 2.37% dividend, raised 36 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 1.4%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
3.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.4%
Dividend Yield
2.37%
Payout Ratio
59.2%
How MCD Splits Its Return
Div 2.37%
Buyback 1.4%
Dividend 2.37%Buybacks 1.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$6.75
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
36Y
3Y Div CAGR
8.2%
5Y Div CAGR
7.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.8B
Estimated Shares Retired
10M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
722M
At 1.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.86 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $7.17 | +5.8% | — | — |
| 2024 | $6.78 | +8.8% | 1.3% | 3.7% |
| 2023 | $6.23 | +10.1% | 1.4% | 3.5% |
| 2022 | $5.66 | +7.8% | 2.0% | 4.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsMCD Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is McDonald's Corporation (MCD) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
McDonald's Corporation (MCD) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 62 analysts covering the stock, 36 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 25 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $352, implying +24.0% from the current price of $284. The bear case scenario is $157 and the bull case is $393.
02What is the MCD stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MCD is $352 based on 62 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $385 (+35.5% from today), and the low-end target is $306 (+7.7%). The base case model target is $340.
03Is McDonald's Corporation (MCD) stock overvalued in 2026?
MCD trades at 21.5x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for McDonald's Corporation (MCD) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MCD in 2026 are: (1) Debt Burden — McDonald's long‑term debt stands at ~$39. (2) Supply Chain Disruptions — Interruptions from shortages, price spikes, geopolitical tensions, or natural disasters can raise ingredient costs and delay store openings. (3) Interest Rate & Currency Fluctuations — With more than 50% of sales generated abroad, McDonald's earnings are exposed to foreign‑exchange swings and global interest‑rate moves. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is McDonald's Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MCD will report consensus revenue of $28.1B (+7.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $12.87 (+9.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $29.1B in revenue.
06When does McDonald's Corporation (MCD) report its next earnings?
McDonald's Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $2.75 and revenue of $6.5B. Over recent quarters, MCD has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does McDonald's Corporation generate?
McDonald's Corporation (MCD) generated $7.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 28.1%. MCD returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.4% yield) and share repurchases ($2.8B TTM).