Upside case
Bull case
$376+35.1%
MCD would need investors to value it at roughly 29x earnings — about 8x more generous than today's 21x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
McDonald's Corporation (MCD) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
62
analysts
36 bullish · 1 bearish · 62 covering MCD
Strong Buy
0
Buy
36
Hold
25
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$347
+24.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$180 – $376
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
62
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
21.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $198.0B
MCD price targets
Three scenarios for where MCD stock could go
Current
~$279
Confidence
54 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $279
Bear
$180
Base
$286
Bull
$376
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$286+2.5%
This is close to how the market is already pricing MCD — at roughly 22x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$180-35.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 8x multiple contraction could push MCD down roughly 35% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
McDonald's Corporation
MCD · NYSEConsumer CyclicalRestaurantsDecember year-end
McDonald's is a global fast-food restaurant chain serving burgers, fries, chicken items, breakfast foods, and beverages. It generates revenue primarily through franchise royalties and fees (about 60% of revenue) and company-operated restaurant sales (about 40%), with real estate income from leasing properties to franchisees being a significant profit driver. Its competitive moat lies in its unparalleled global brand recognition, massive scale, and sophisticated real estate strategy that creates a durable income stream.
Market Cap
$198.0B
Revenue TTM
$27.4B
Net Income TTM
$8.7B
Net Margin
31.6%
MCD Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.19/$3.14
Revenue
$6.8B/$6.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.22/$3.33
Revenue
$7.1B/$7.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.12/$3.05
Revenue
$7.0B/$6.8B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.83/$2.74
Revenue
$6.5B/$6.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.19/$3.14 | +1.6% | $6.8B/$6.7B | +2.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.22/$3.33 | -3.3% | $7.1B/$7.1B | -0.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.12/$3.05 | +2.3% | $7.0B/$6.8B | +2.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.83/$2.74 | +3.3% | $6.5B/$6.5B | +0.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$28.6B
+4.2% YoY
FY2
$29.9B
+4.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$11.36
-6.6% YoY
FY2
$11.98
+5.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$7.0B
FCF Margin: 25.6%
Next Earnings
August 5, 2026
Expected EPS
$3.34
Expected Revenue
$7.1B
MCD beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
MCD Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $26.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
High-Growth Markets
50.7%
+8.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
International Operated Markets
50.7%
+8.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
High-Growth Markets is the largest disclosed segment at 50.7% of FY 2025 revenue, up 8.0% YoY.
International Operated Markets is the largest reported region at 50.7%, up 8.0% YoY.
MCD Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fair versus peers
Fair value est. $277 — implies -0.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
0.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MCD
23.3x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
In line with benchmark
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
MCD
23.3x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+10% premium
vs MCD 5Y Avg P/E
Today
23.3x
vs
5Y Average
27.0x
14% discount
Forward PE
21.5x
S&P 500
18.8x
+14%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
+31%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
23.3x
S&P 500
24.4x
-5%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+10%
5Y Avg
27.0x
-14%
PEG Ratio
1.71x
S&P 500
1.66x
+3%
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
+85%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
17.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
+14%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
+42%
5Y Avg
19.7x
-12%
Price/FCF
27.5x
S&P 500
20.7x
+33%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
+77%
5Y Avg
31.1x
-12%
Price/Sales
7.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+138%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+955%
5Y Avg
8.4x
-12%
Dividend Yield
2.56%
S&P 500
1.91%
+34%
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
+18%
5Y Avg
2.17%
+18%
| Metric | MCD | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg MCD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 21.5x | 18.8x+14% | 16.3x+31% | — |
| Trailing PE | 23.3x | 24.4x | 21.2x+10% | 27.0x-14% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.71x | 1.66x | 0.92x+85% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.3x | 15.2x+14% | 12.2x+42% | 19.7x-12% |
| Price/FCF | 27.5x | 20.7x+33% | 15.6x+77% | 31.1x-12% |
| Price/Sales | 7.4x | 3.1x+138% | 0.7x+955% | 8.4x-12% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.56% | 1.91% | 2.17% | 2.17% |
MCD trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMCD Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
MCD generates $7.0B in free cash flow at a 25.6% margin — 18.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 3.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$27.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+6.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
57.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
46.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
31.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$12.16
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$7.0B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
25.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
18.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
14.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$774M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$54.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
7.7× FCF
~7.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.6%
Dividend
2.6%
Buyback
1.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.1B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$7.14
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
59.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
711M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageMCD Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Medium
Limited upside participation
Low beta of 0.41 suggests McDonald's may not fully benefit from bull markets, limiting investor returns.
High Risk
Financial conditions impact
Tighter financial conditions can affect capital allocation, balance-sheet flexibility, and future borrowing attractiveness.
Medium
Food quality criticism
McDonald's has faced criticism for the nutritional quality of its menu items, potentially impacting brand reputation.
Lower
Valuation risk
DCF models show a bear case intrinsic value of $260, indicating potential downside risk at current prices.
High Risk
Multiple risk factors
McDonald's disclosed 33 risk factors in its recent earnings report, indicating a broad range of potential challenges.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MCD Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Strong free cash flow
McDonald's generates robust free cash flow, supporting its financial stability and ability to invest in growth initiatives.
Disciplined share repurchases
The company consistently buys back shares, reducing outstanding shares and enhancing shareholder value.
Steady dividend policy
McDonald's maintains a reliable dividend policy, providing consistent income to long-term investors.
Iconic menu offerings
Popular items like the Big Mac and french fries drive strong sales and customer loyalty.
Shareholder value creation
McDonald's focus on financial discipline and growth has led to stock price appreciation and long-term value for investors.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MCD Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$278.61
52W Range Position
10%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$271.85
+2.5% from the low
52-Week High
$341.75
-18.5% from the high
1 Month
-1.37%
3 Month
-11.76%
YTD
-8.1%
1 Year
-3.8%
3Y CAGR
-1.7%
5Y CAGR
+3.9%
10Y CAGR
+8.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MCD vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
21.5x
vs 18.1x median
+19% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.2%
vs +6.4% median
-35% below peer median
Net Margin
31.6%
vs 7.8% median
+305% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MCD MCD McDonald's Corporation | $198.0B | 21.5x | +4.2% | 31.6% | Buy | +24.7% |
YUM YUM Yum! Brands, Inc. | $42.0B | 22.4x | +6.4% | 20.5% | Hold | +17.1% |
QSR QSR Restaurant Brands International Inc. | $25.4B | 18.1x | +7.3% | 10.0% | Buy | +14.0% |
WEN WEN The Wendy's Company | $1.3B | 11.8x | +0.5% | 7.8% | Hold | +17.6% |
JAC JACK Jack in the Box Inc. | $244M | 3.8x | -1.2% | 2.8% | Hold | +26.8% |
SHA SHAK Shake Shack Inc. | $2.4B | 51.5x | +11.6% | 2.8% | Buy | +53.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MCD Dividend and Capital Return
MCD returns 3.6% total yield, led by a 2.56% dividend, raised 36 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 1.0%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
3.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.0%
Dividend Yield
2.56%
Payout Ratio
59.7%
How MCD Splits Its Return
Div 2.56%
Buyback 1.0%
Dividend 2.56%Buybacks 1.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$7.14
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
36Y
3Y Div CAGR
8.2%
5Y Div CAGR
7.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.1B
Estimated Shares Retired
7M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
711M
At 1.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $3.72 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $7.17 | +5.8% | 0.9% | 3.3% |
| 2024 | $6.78 | +8.8% | 1.3% | 3.7% |
| 2023 | $6.23 | +10.1% | 1.4% | 3.5% |
| 2022 | $5.66 | +7.8% | 2.0% | 4.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsMCD Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is McDonald's Corporation (MCD) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
McDonald's Corporation (MCD) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 62 analysts covering the stock, 36 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 25 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $347, implying +24.7% from the current price of $279. The bear case scenario is $180 and the bull case is $376.
02What is the MCD stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MCD is $347 based on 62 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $385 (+38.2% from today), and the low-end target is $305 (+9.5%). The base case model target is $286.
03Is McDonald's Corporation (MCD) stock overvalued in 2026?
MCD trades at 21.5x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fair versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for McDonald's Corporation (MCD) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MCD in 2026 are: (1) Financial conditions impact — Tighter financial conditions can affect capital allocation, balance-sheet flexibility, and future borrowing attractiveness. (2) Multiple risk factors — McDonald's disclosed 33 risk factors in its recent earnings report, indicating a broad range of potential challenges. (3) Limited upside participation — Low beta of 0. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is McDonald's Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MCD will report consensus revenue of $28.6B (+4.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $11.36 (-6.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $29.9B in revenue.
06When does McDonald's Corporation (MCD) report its next earnings?
McDonald's Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-05. Consensus expects EPS of $3.34 and revenue of $7.1B. Over recent quarters, MCD has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does McDonald's Corporation generate?
McDonald's Corporation (MCD) generated $7.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 25.6%. MCD returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.6% yield) and share repurchases ($2.1B TTM).