Upside case
Bull case
$553+128.9%
R would need investors to value it at roughly 38x earnings — about 21x more generous than today's 17x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Ryder System, Inc. (R) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
35
analysts
22 bullish · 0 bearish · 35 covering R
Strong Buy
1
Buy
21
Hold
13
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$247
+2.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$135 – $553
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
35
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
16.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $9.5B
R price targets
Three scenarios for where R stock could go
Current
~$242
Confidence
62 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $242
Bear
$135
Base
$306
Bull
$553
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$306+26.8%
At 21x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$135-44.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 7x multiple contraction could push R down roughly 44% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Ryder System, Inc.
R · NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesDecember year-end
Ryder System is a comprehensive transportation and logistics company that provides fleet management, supply chain, and dedicated transportation solutions. It generates revenue primarily through Fleet Management Solutions (full-service leasing, rentals, and maintenance — roughly 70% of revenue), Supply Chain Solutions (warehousing and distribution), and Dedicated Transportation Solutions (outsourced trucking operations). The company's competitive advantage lies in its integrated service model — combining vehicles, maintenance, drivers, and logistics technology — which creates high switching costs for customers who rely on Ryder's end-to-end transportation ecosystem.
Market Cap
$9.5B
Revenue TTM
$12.7B
Net Income TTM
$495M
Net Margin
3.9%
R Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
17%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.32/$3.11
Revenue
$3.2B/$3.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.57/$3.56
Revenue
$3.2B/$3.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.59/$3.66
Revenue
$3.2B/$3.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.54/$2.29
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.32/$3.11 | +6.8% | $3.2B/$3.2B | +0.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.57/$3.56 | +0.3% | $3.2B/$3.2B | -1.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.59/$3.66 | -1.9% | $3.2B/$3.2B | -0.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.54/$2.29 | +10.9% | $3.1B/$3.1B | -0.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$13.0B
+2.5% YoY
FY2
$13.3B
+2.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$13.80
+10.4% YoY
FY2
$15.20
+10.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$478M
FCF Margin: 3.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
R beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
R Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $13.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Fleet Management Solutions
42.8%
-0.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
93.0%
+0.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Fleet Management Solutions is the largest disclosed segment at 42.8% of FY 2025 revenue, down 0.7% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 93.0%, up 0.1% YoY.
R Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $495 — implies +98.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
98.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
R
20.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
20% discount
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
R
20.1x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
22% discount
vs R 5Y Avg P/E
Today
20.1x
vs
5Y Average
11.4x
+77% premium
Forward PE
16.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
-13%
Industrials
20.8x
-20%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
20.1x
S&P 500
25.2x
-20%
Industrials
25.9x
-22%
5Y Avg
11.4x
+77%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Industrials
1.59x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
5.4x
S&P 500
15.3x
-65%
Industrials
13.9x
-61%
5Y Avg
4.7x
+14%
Price/FCF
20.7x
S&P 500
21.3x
-3%
Industrials
20.6x
+1%
5Y Avg
18.1x
+14%
Price/Sales
0.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-76%
Industrials
1.6x
-53%
5Y Avg
0.5x
+54%
Dividend Yield
1.44%
S&P 500
1.88%
-24%
Industrials
1.24%
+16%
5Y Avg
2.36%
-39%
| Metric | R | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 16.6x | 19.1x-13% | 20.8x-20% | — |
| Trailing PE | 20.1x | 25.2x-20% | 25.9x-22% | 11.4x+77% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.59x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.4x | 15.3x-65% | 13.9x-61% | 4.7x+14% |
| Price/FCF | 20.7x | 21.3x | 20.6x | 18.1x+14% |
| Price/Sales | 0.8x | 3.1x-76% | 1.6x-53% | 0.5x+54% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.44% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 2.36% |
R trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolR Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
R returns 6.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$12.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-0.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
26.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
7.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
3.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$12.50
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$478M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
3.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$198M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$8.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
17.7× FCF
~17.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
39.5%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (7.0%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.9%
Dividend
1.4%
Buyback
5.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$519M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.47
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
29.1%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
39M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Market Risk
The overall market decline poses a significant risk, potentially affecting most stocks. This risk can be modeled using techniques like Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) in R.
High Risk
Volatility Risk
Fluctuations in stock prices present a high risk, even for stable companies. R can be utilized to analyze and model these price fluctuations effectively.
Medium
Inflation Risk
Inflation risk threatens to erode the purchasing power of returns, impacting investor returns significantly. This risk is particularly relevant in periods of high inflation.
Medium
Interest Rate Risk
Changes in interest rates can adversely affect the value of investments, especially bonds. This risk is heightened in a fluctuating interest rate environment.
Medium
Liquidity Risk
Liquidity risk arises when an investment cannot be easily bought or sold, potentially leading to significant losses. This is a critical concern for investors in less liquid markets.
Lower
Credit Risk
Credit risk, or default risk, is the possibility that a borrower will fail to repay debt. This is particularly relevant for bond investments and can impact overall portfolio performance.
Lower
Business Risk
Business risk pertains to the operational risks associated with a company's ability to sustain its business. Factors such as management decisions and market competition contribute to this risk.
Lower
Political & Currency Risk
Political risk and currency risk are particularly relevant for international investments. Changes in government policies or currency fluctuations can adversely affect investment returns.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why R Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Analyst Sentiment
A strong majority of analysts recommend 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy' for Ryder System (R) stock, indicating confidence in its future performance.
Positive Earnings and Revenue Growth
Analysts forecast earnings growth of around 9.4% per year and revenue growth of approximately 4.9% per year, suggesting a robust financial outlook.
Favorable Industry Position
Ryder System is viewed favorably compared to its competitors in the transportation sector, holding a consensus rating of 'Moderate Buy' versus a general 'Hold' for the industry.
Strong Operational Metrics
The company is recognized for its strong operational metrics and effective cash flow management, which enhance its competitive edge in the logistics industry.
Long-Term Contract Growth Potential
There is an expectation of long-term growth driven by contract-based logistics and supply chain services, positioning Ryder for sustained success.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
R Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$241.56
52W Range Position
86%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$139.77
+72.8% from the low
52-Week High
$258.49
-6.5% from the high
1 Month
+17.02%
3 Month
+11.06%
YTD
+24.4%
1 Year
+70.0%
3Y CAGR
+42.8%
5Y CAGR
+22.6%
10Y CAGR
+13.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
R vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
16.6x
vs 20.6x median
-20% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.5%
vs +7.0% median
-65% below peer median
Net Margin
3.9%
vs 15.3% median
-74% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
R R Ryder System, Inc. | $9.5B | 16.6x | +2.5% | 3.9% | Buy | +2.4% |
GAT GATX GATX Corporation | $7.1B | 19.9x | +14.6% | 18.3% | Buy | +6.2% |
AL AL Air Lease Corporation | $7.3B | 12.8x | +8.6% | 36.1% | Buy | 0.0% |
URI URI United Rentals, Inc. | $60.4B | 20.6x | +7.0% | 15.3% | Buy | +7.5% |
XPO XPO XPO Logistics, Inc. | $24.8B | 44.9x | +3.3% | 4.2% | Buy | -1.2% |
CHR CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | $20.0B | 27.4x | -2.1% | 3.7% | Hold | +11.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
R Dividend and Capital Return
R returns capital mainly through $519M/year in buybacks (5.4% buyback yield), with a modest 1.44% dividend — combining for 6.9% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 21 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
6.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
5.4%
Dividend Yield
1.44%
Payout Ratio
29.1%
How R Splits Its Return
Div 1.44%
Buyback 5.4%
Dividend 1.44%Buybacks 5.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.47
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
21Y
3Y Div CAGR
12.7%
5Y Div CAGR
9.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$519M
Estimated Shares Retired
2M
Approx. Share Reduction
5.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
39M
At 5.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.91 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.44 | +13.2% | 6.5% | 8.3% |
| 2024 | $3.04 | +14.3% | 4.6% | 6.6% |
| 2023 | $2.66 | +10.8% | 6.3% | 8.7% |
| 2022 | $2.40 | +5.3% | 13.1% | 16.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Ryder System, Inc. (R) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Ryder System, Inc. (R) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 35 analysts covering the stock, 22 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $247, implying +2.4% from the current price of $242. The bear case scenario is $135 and the bull case is $553.
02What is the R stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for R is $247 based on 35 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $253 (+4.7% from today), and the low-end target is $236 (-2.3%). The base case model target is $306.
03Is Ryder System, Inc. (R) stock overvalued in 2026?
R trades at 16.6x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Ryder System, Inc. (R) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for R in 2026 are: (1) Market Risk — The overall market decline poses a significant risk, potentially affecting most stocks. (2) Volatility Risk — Fluctuations in stock prices present a high risk, even for stable companies. (3) Inflation Risk — Inflation risk threatens to erode the purchasing power of returns, impacting investor returns significantly. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Ryder System, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates R will report consensus revenue of $13.0B (+2.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $13.80 (+10.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $13.3B in revenue.
06When does Ryder System, Inc. (R) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for R is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Ryder System, Inc. generate?
Ryder System, Inc. (R) generated $478M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 3.8%. R returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.4% yield) and share repurchases ($519M TTM).