Upside case
Bull case
$271+36.1%
XPO would need investors to value it at roughly 55x earnings — about 15x more generous than today's 41x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
32
analysts
21 bullish · 1 bearish · 32 covering XPO
Strong Buy
0
Buy
21
Hold
10
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$220
+10.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$130 – $271
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
32
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
40.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $23.4B
XPO price targets
Three scenarios for where XPO stock could go
Current
~$200
Confidence
51 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $200
Bear
$130
Base
$206
Bull
$271
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$206+3.3%
This is close to how the market is already pricing XPO — at roughly 42x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$130-34.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 14x multiple contraction could push XPO down roughly 35% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
XPO Logistics, Inc.
XPO · NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsDecember year-end
XPO Logistics is a freight transportation company specializing in less-than-truckload shipping and logistics services across North America and Europe. It generates revenue primarily from its North American LTL segment — which contributes roughly 80% of total revenue — and its brokerage and other services segment handling last-mile logistics for heavy goods. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive North American LTL network density, which creates significant operating leverage and cost advantages in regional freight markets.
Market Cap
$23.4B
Revenue TTM
$8.3B
Net Income TTM
$348M
Net Margin
4.2%
XPO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+17.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.05/$0.99
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.07/$1.02
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.88/$0.76
Revenue
$2.0B/$2.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.01/$0.88
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.05/$0.99 | +6.1% | $2.1B/$2.1B | -0.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.07/$1.02 | +4.9% | $2.1B/$2.1B | +1.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.88/$0.76 | +15.2% | $2.0B/$2.0B | +2.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.01/$0.88 | +14.9% | $2.1B/$2.0B | +2.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$8.9B
+7.4% YoY
FY2
$9.3B
+4.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.98
+36.0% YoY
FY2
$4.58
+15.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$457M
FCF Margin: 5.5%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.43
Expected Revenue
$2.3B
XPO beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
XPO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $8.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
57.9%
-1.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 57.9%, down 1.4% YoY.
XPO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $134 — implies -32.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
32.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
XPO
75.6x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+209% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
XPO
75.6x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
+195% premium
vs XPO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
75.6x
vs
5Y Average
33.6x
+125% premium
Forward PE
40.5x
S&P 500
18.8x
+115%
Industrials
21.2x
+91%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
75.6x
S&P 500
24.4x
+209%
Industrials
25.6x
+195%
5Y Avg
33.6x
+125%
PEG Ratio
2.74x
S&P 500
1.66x
+65%
Industrials
1.65x
+66%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
22.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
+46%
Industrials
13.9x
+60%
5Y Avg
14.3x
+55%
Price/FCF
71.2x
S&P 500
20.7x
+244%
Industrials
20.0x
+255%
5Y Avg
24.4x
+192%
Price/Sales
2.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-7%
Industrials
1.6x
+84%
5Y Avg
1.3x
+121%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Industrials
1.21%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | XPO | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg XPO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 40.5x | 18.8x+115% | 21.2x+91% | — |
| Trailing PE | 75.6x | 24.4x+209% | 25.6x+195% | 33.6x+125% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.74x | 1.66x+65% | 1.65x+66% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.3x | 15.2x+46% | 13.9x+60% | 14.3x+55% |
| Price/FCF | 71.2x | 20.7x+244% | 20.0x+255% | 24.4x+192% |
| Price/Sales | 2.9x | 3.1x | 1.6x+84% | 1.3x+121% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.21% | — |
XPO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolXPO Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
Key financial metrics for XPO are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$8.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+3.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
12.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
4.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.92
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$457M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
5.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$310M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$4.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
9.6× FCF
~9.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
19.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.5%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$125M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
117M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageXPO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Earnings Downgrade
Wolfe Research lowered its 2026 EPS estimate by 5% to $4.30, which is 3% below consensus expectations.
High Risk
Valuation Risk
XPO is considered severely overvalued with a P/E of 68.14x and significant downside risk.
Medium
Freight Volume Decline
The company reported a 2.8% decrease in weight per shipment in Q1 due to strategic mix shifts.
Medium
Market Sentiment
Bear case price target of $235 suggests limited upside potential compared to base and bull scenarios.
Lower
Operational Focus
Strategic shift toward local customers and premium services may impact short-term profitability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why XPO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong LTL Market Position
XPO is one of the largest providers of asset-based less-than-truckload (LTL) freight transportation in North America, offering optimized shipping with fast transit times.
Institutional Investor Confidence
Recent institutional activity, including selling $115 strike puts expiring in 2026, indicates strong confidence with a ~22% margin of safety at current stock prices.
Compelling Valuation Opportunity
The stock presents a bullish opportunity due to strong fundamentals and a significant margin of safety, as highlighted by recent trades and market analysis.
Geographic Diversification
XPO operates across the United States, North America, and Europe, providing diversified revenue streams and reducing regional risks.
Efficient Freight Solutions
XPO's LTL capabilities are trusted for maximizing shipping efforts with the fastest transit times, enhancing customer satisfaction and operational efficiency.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
XPO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$199.50
52W Range Position
72%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$116.68
+71.0% from the low
52-Week High
$232.05
-14.0% from the high
1 Month
-0.48%
3 Month
+5.16%
YTD
+43.7%
1 Year
+65.4%
3Y CAGR
+57.2%
5Y CAGR
+32.8%
10Y CAGR
+35.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
XPO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
40.5x
vs 27.3x median
+49% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.4%
vs +3.4% median
+115% above peer median
Net Margin
4.2%
vs 5.9% median
-29% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XPO XPO XPO Logistics, Inc. | $23.4B | 40.5x | +7.4% | 4.2% | Buy | +10.3% |
ODF ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. | $46.1B | 40.5x | +3.4% | 18.6% | Hold | -1.6% |
SAI SAIA Saia, Inc. | $11.6B | 38.3x | +7.2% | 7.8% | Buy | +3.1% |
ARC ARCB ArcBest Corporation | $3.2B | 24.4x | +1.8% | 1.4% | Buy | -12.5% |
TFI TFII TFI International Inc. | $11.9B | 27.3x | +5.7% | 3.9% | Buy | +1.3% |
UPS UPS United Parcel Service, Inc. | $89.2B | 14.8x | +1.1% | 5.9% | Hold | +9.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
XPO Dividend and Capital Return
XPO returns 0.5% annually — null% through dividends and 0.5% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.5%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$125M
Estimated Shares Retired
626.6K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
117M
At 0.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsXPO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 32 analysts covering the stock, 21 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $220, implying +10.3% from the current price of $200. The bear case scenario is $130 and the bull case is $271.
02What is the XPO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for XPO is $220 based on 32 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $250 (+25.3% from today), and the low-end target is $105 (-47.4%). The base case model target is $206.
03Is XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO) stock overvalued in 2026?
XPO trades at 40.5x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for XPO in 2026 are: (1) Earnings Downgrade — Wolfe Research lowered its 2026 EPS estimate by 5% to $4. (2) Valuation Risk — XPO is considered severely overvalued with a P/E of 68. (3) Freight Volume Decline — The company reported a 2. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is XPO Logistics, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates XPO will report consensus revenue of $8.9B (+7.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.98 (+36.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $9.3B in revenue.
06When does XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO) report its next earnings?
XPO Logistics, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $1.43 and revenue of $2.3B. Over recent quarters, XPO has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does XPO Logistics, Inc. generate?
XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO) generated $457M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 5.5%. XPO returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($125M TTM).