Upside case
Bull case
$1889+95.9%
URI would need investors to value it at roughly 40x earnings — about 20x more generous than today's 21x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
United Rentals, Inc. (URI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
40
analysts
28 bullish · 5 bearish · 40 covering URI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
28
Hold
7
Sell
5
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$1037
+7.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$935 – $1889
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
40
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
20.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $60.4B
URI price targets
Three scenarios for where URI stock could go
Current
~$965
Confidence
69 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $965
Bear
$935
Base
$1311
Bull
$1889
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$1311+35.9%
At 28x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$935-3.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push URI down roughly 3% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
United Rentals, Inc.
URI · NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesDecember year-end
United Rentals is the world's largest equipment rental company, providing construction and industrial equipment to contractors, manufacturers, utilities, and government entities. It generates revenue primarily through equipment rentals — with general rentals (about 70% of revenue) and specialty rentals (about 30%) — plus equipment sales and service fees. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive scale, extensive North American footprint with over 1,400 locations, and the largest rental fleet in the industry, which creates significant purchasing power and operational efficiencies.
Market Cap
$60.4B
Revenue TTM
$16.4B
Net Income TTM
$2.5B
Net Margin
15.3%
URI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+1.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$10.47/$10.51
Revenue
$3.9B/$3.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$11.70/$12.29
Revenue
$4.2B/$4.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$11.09/$11.79
Revenue
$4.2B/$4.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$9.71/$8.95
Revenue
$4.0B/$3.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $10.47/$10.51 | -0.4% | $3.9B/$3.9B | +1.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.70/$12.29 | -4.8% | $4.2B/$4.2B | +1.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.09/$11.79 | -5.9% | $4.2B/$4.2B | -0.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $9.71/$8.95 | +8.5% | $4.0B/$3.9B | +2.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$17.5B
+7.0% YoY
FY2
$19.0B
+8.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$46.23
+17.3% YoY
FY2
$52.48
+13.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.5B
FCF Margin: 9.1%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
URI beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
URI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $16.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Owned Equipment Rentals
68.6%
+4.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
91.1%
+4.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Owned Equipment Rentals is the largest disclosed segment at 68.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 4.6% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 91.1%, up 4.9% YoY.
URI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $823 — implies -13.4% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
13.4%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
URI
25.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
In line with benchmark
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
URI
25.0x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
In line with benchmark
vs URI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
25.0x
vs
5Y Average
17.0x
+47% premium
Forward PE
20.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
+8%
Industrials
20.8x
-1%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
25.0x
S&P 500
25.2x
-1%
Industrials
25.9x
-3%
5Y Avg
17.0x
+47%
PEG Ratio
0.96x
S&P 500
1.75x
-45%
Industrials
1.59x
-39%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.8x
S&P 500
15.3x
-29%
Industrials
13.9x
-22%
5Y Avg
8.2x
+31%
Price/FCF
91.3x
S&P 500
21.3x
+328%
Industrials
20.6x
+342%
5Y Avg
67.3x
+36%
Price/Sales
3.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+20%
Industrials
1.6x
+136%
5Y Avg
2.7x
+37%
Dividend Yield
0.74%
S&P 500
1.88%
-60%
Industrials
1.24%
-40%
5Y Avg
0.95%
-21%
| Metric | URI | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg URI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 20.6x | 19.1x | 20.8x | — |
| Trailing PE | 25.0x | 25.2x | 25.9x | 17.0x+47% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.96x | 1.75x-45% | 1.59x-39% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.8x | 15.3x-29% | 13.9x-22% | 8.2x+31% |
| Price/FCF | 91.3x | 21.3x+328% | 20.6x+342% | 67.3x+36% |
| Price/Sales | 3.8x | 3.1x+20% | 1.6x+136% | 2.7x+37% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.74% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 0.95% |
URI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolURI Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
URI generates $1.5B in free cash flow at a 9.1% margin — 12.4% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 4.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$16.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+5.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
36.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
24.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
15.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$39.42
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
9.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
12.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$459M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$16.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
10.7× FCF
~10.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
27.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.0%
Dividend
0.7%
Buyback
3.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.0B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$7.18
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
18.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
63M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageURI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Market Cyclicality
United Rentals' revenue, earnings, and cash flow are heavily tied to infrastructure, construction, and data center spending. A slowdown in these sectors, driven by macroeconomic factors, can materially reduce rental demand and lower rates, potentially eroding profitability.
High Risk
Fleet Cost Pressure
As the rental fleet ages, operating costs for maintenance rise, and the cost of acquiring new equipment is increasing. If these costs cannot be fully passed to customers, earnings margins could be compressed.
High Risk
Economic Sensitivity
Under Armour's sales and profitability are highly sensitive to economic conditions such as recessions, inflation, and shifts in discretionary spending. A downturn could sharply reduce demand for athletic apparel and footwear, impacting revenue and margins.
Medium
Capital Investment
Maintaining and expanding a large rental fleet requires substantial ongoing capital investment, which can strain cash flows, especially during periods of economic uncertainty. High CapEx may limit the company's ability to invest in growth initiatives.
Medium
Customer Concentration
A significant portion of Under Armour's sales comes from large wholesale customers. A decline in their financial condition or the loss of key customers could materially harm sales and growth prospects.
Medium
Trade Risk
New tariffs can significantly increase the cost of goods sold, leading to gross margin pressure. Mitigation efforts may take time to deliver meaningful offsets, potentially impacting profitability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why URI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Market Leadership & Scale
United Rentals' fleet size and network exceed peers, driving higher utilization and pricing power. The company's scale translates into a competitive advantage in securing contracts and maintaining market share.
Specialty Rentals Expansion
Growth in specialty rentals, supported by long‑term customer agreements and cross‑selling, is a key future driver. The company is actively expanding this segment to capture higher‑margin opportunities.
Consistent Financial Growth
Since 2020, United Rentals has posted steady revenue and net income increases, with recent quarters exceeding revenue forecasts. Operating costs have pressured earnings, but the trend remains upward.
Strategic Telematics Investment
Ongoing investment in telematics technology boosts customer productivity and deepens partnerships. These tech enhancements support service differentiation and operational efficiency.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
URI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$964.50
52W Range Position
85%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$645.18
+49.5% from the low
52-Week High
$1021.47
-5.6% from the high
1 Month
+30.96%
3 Month
+7.22%
YTD
+14.1%
1 Year
+48.0%
3Y CAGR
+41.4%
5Y CAGR
+23.0%
10Y CAGR
+31.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
URI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
20.6x
vs 19.8x median
+4% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.0%
vs -0.3% median
+2547% above peer median
Net Margin
15.3%
vs 2.0% median
+679% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
URI URI United Rentals, Inc. | $60.4B | 20.6x | +7.0% | 15.3% | Buy | +7.5% |
KFR KFRC Kforce Inc. | $769M | 17.5x | -4.1% | 2.6% | Hold | +68.9% |
BRT BRT BRT Apartments Corp. | $272M | — | +8.7% | -12.3% | Buy | +45.1% |
TRE TREX Trex Company, Inc. | $4.2B | 24.4x | +2.9% | 16.2% | Hold | +11.5% |
BLD BLDR Builders FirstSource, Inc. | $8.9B | 14.2x | -3.3% | 2.0% | Buy | +37.3% |
WSC WSC WillScot Holdings Corporation | $4.2B | 22.2x | -0.3% | -2.3% | Buy | +1.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
URI Dividend and Capital Return
URI returns capital mainly through $2.0B/year in buybacks (3.3% buyback yield), with a modest 0.74% dividend — combining for 4.0% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
4.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.3%
Dividend Yield
0.74%
Payout Ratio
18.6%
How URI Splits Its Return
Div 0.74%
Buyback 3.3%
Dividend 0.74%Buybacks 3.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$7.18
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.0B
Estimated Shares Retired
2M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
63M
At 3.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $3.94 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $7.16 | +9.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% |
| 2024 | $6.52 | +10.1% | 3.4% | 4.3% |
| 2023 | $5.92 | — | 2.7% | 3.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsURI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is United Rentals, Inc. (URI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
United Rentals, Inc. (URI) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 40 analysts covering the stock, 28 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 7 rate it Hold, and 5 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $1037, implying +7.5% from the current price of $965. The bear case scenario is $935 and the bull case is $1889.
02What is the URI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for URI is $1037 based on 40 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $1209 (+25.3% from today), and the low-end target is $715 (-25.9%). The base case model target is $1311.
03Is United Rentals, Inc. (URI) stock overvalued in 2026?
URI trades at 20.6x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for United Rentals, Inc. (URI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for URI in 2026 are: (1) Market Cyclicality — United Rentals' revenue, earnings, and cash flow are heavily tied to infrastructure, construction, and data center spending. (2) Fleet Cost Pressure — As the rental fleet ages, operating costs for maintenance rise, and the cost of acquiring new equipment is increasing. (3) Economic Sensitivity — Under Armour's sales and profitability are highly sensitive to economic conditions such as recessions, inflation, and shifts in discretionary spending. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is United Rentals, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates URI will report consensus revenue of $17.5B (+7.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $46.23 (+17.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $19.0B in revenue.
06When does United Rentals, Inc. (URI) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for URI is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does United Rentals, Inc. generate?
United Rentals, Inc. (URI) generated $1.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 9.1%. URI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.7% yield) and share repurchases ($2.0B TTM).