Upside case
Bull case
$318+71.6%
CHRW would need investors to value it at roughly 52x earnings — about 22x more generous than today's 30x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
46
analysts
20 bullish · 4 bearish · 46 covering CHRW
Strong Buy
0
Buy
20
Hold
22
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$192
+3.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$152 – $318
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
46
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
30.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $21.9B
CHRW price targets
Three scenarios for where CHRW stock could go
Current
~$185
Confidence
52 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $185
Bear
$152
Base
$241
Bull
$318
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$241+30.3%
At 39x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$152-17.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 5x multiple contraction could push CHRW down roughly 18% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.
CHRW · NASDAQIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsDecember year-end
C.H. Robinson Worldwide is a global third-party logistics provider that connects shippers with carriers through its extensive transportation network. The company generates revenue primarily from freight brokerage services — earning margins on the spread between what shippers pay and what carriers charge — with its North American Surface Transportation segment contributing roughly 70% of total revenue. Its key competitive advantage is its massive network of approximately 85,000 transportation partners and sophisticated technology platform that optimizes freight matching and logistics management.
Market Cap
$21.9B
Revenue TTM
$16.2B
Net Income TTM
$599M
Net Margin
3.7%
CHRW Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
17%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.29/$1.16
Revenue
$4.1B/$4.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.40/$1.30
Revenue
$4.1B/$4.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.23/$1.12
Revenue
$3.9B/$4.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.35/$1.23
Revenue
$4.0B/$4.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.29/$1.16 | +11.2% | $4.1B/$4.2B | -0.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.40/$1.30 | +7.7% | $4.1B/$4.2B | -2.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.23/$1.12 | +9.8% | $3.9B/$4.0B | -1.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.35/$1.23 | +9.8% | $4.0B/$4.0B | -0.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$16.4B
+1.4% YoY
FY2
$17.3B
+5.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.45
+10.1% YoY
FY2
$6.01
+10.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$858M
FCF Margin: 5.3%
Next Earnings
July 29, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.49
Expected Revenue
$4.3B
CHRW beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CHRW Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $16.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Transportation Customer’s Freight
91.3%
-9.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
88.3%
-3.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Transportation Customer’s Freight is the largest disclosed segment at 91.3% of FY 2025 revenue, down 9.4% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 88.3%, down 3.6% YoY.
CHRW Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $217 — implies +17.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
17.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CHRW
38.3x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+57% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
CHRW
38.3x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
+50% premium
vs CHRW 5Y Avg P/E
Today
38.3x
vs
5Y Average
24.2x
+58% premium
Forward PE
30.0x
S&P 500
18.8x
+60%
Industrials
21.2x
+42%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
38.3x
S&P 500
24.4x
+57%
Industrials
25.6x
+50%
5Y Avg
24.2x
+58%
PEG Ratio
7.15x
S&P 500
1.66x
+331%
Industrials
1.65x
+334%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
26.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
+71%
Industrials
13.9x
+88%
5Y Avg
17.1x
+52%
Price/FCF
24.5x
S&P 500
20.7x
+19%
Industrials
20.0x
+22%
5Y Avg
17.8x
+38%
Price/Sales
1.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
-56%
Industrials
1.6x
-13%
5Y Avg
0.7x
+88%
Dividend Yield
1.34%
S&P 500
1.91%
-30%
Industrials
1.21%
+10%
5Y Avg
2.22%
-40%
| Metric | CHRW | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg CHRW |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 30.0x | 18.8x+60% | 21.2x+42% | — |
| Trailing PE | 38.3x | 24.4x+57% | 25.6x+50% | 24.2x+58% |
| PEG Ratio | 7.15x | 1.66x+331% | 1.65x+334% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.1x | 15.2x+71% | 13.9x+88% | 17.1x+52% |
| Price/FCF | 24.5x | 20.7x+19% | 20.0x+22% | 17.8x+38% |
| Price/Sales | 1.4x | 3.1x-56% | 1.6x-13% | 0.7x+88% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.34% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 2.22% |
CHRW trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCHRW Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
CHRW 18.0% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 3.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$16.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-6.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
8.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
4.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
3.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.95
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$858M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
5.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
18.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$161M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.7× FCF
~1.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
33.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.0%
Dividend
1.3%
Buyback
1.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$355M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.48
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
51.3%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
119M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCHRW Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Stagnant freight volumes
The company is facing challenges due to stagnant freight volumes, impacting its core logistics business.
High Risk
Technological disruption
Aggressive technological disruption in the logistics sector poses a significant threat to CHRW's traditional business model.
Medium
Volatile logistics landscape
The global logistics landscape is undergoing profound transformation, creating uncertainty for CHRW's operations.
Medium
Financial health concerns
Deep dive analyses highlight potential concerns about CHRW's financial health and fundamental performance.
Lower
Market sentiment shifts
Bearish factors and technical signals indicate potential shifts in market sentiment towards CHRW.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CHRW Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong financial performance
C.H. Robinson Worldwide reported solid first-quarter 2026 results with revenue of US$4,012.93 million and net income of US$147.23 million, indicating robust financial health.
Share buyback completion
The company completed a long-running buyback program, which can enhance shareholder value and signal confidence in future growth.
Improved earnings guidance
C.H. Robinson Worldwide raised its 2026 earnings guidance and announced an increased regular quarterly dividend, reflecting a positive outlook.
Market share gains
The company has been taking market share and improving adjusted profitability despite a weak freight environment, demonstrating resilience and competitive strength.
Lean AI and cost discipline
Lean AI initiatives and cost discipline are proving to be sustainable earnings levers, as evidenced by recent performance.
Bullish long-term projections
Optimistic analysts project revenue near US$19.6 billion and earnings of about US$770 million by 2028, suggesting significant growth potential.
Dividend increase
The announcement of an increased regular quarterly dividend of US$0.63 per share highlights the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CHRW Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$185.04
52W Range Position
84%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$92.36
+100.3% from the low
52-Week High
$203.34
-9.0% from the high
1 Month
+9.03%
3 Month
+8.44%
YTD
+13.0%
1 Year
+98.1%
3Y CAGR
+25.9%
5Y CAGR
+14.8%
10Y CAGR
+9.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CHRW vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
30.0x
vs 32.1x median
-7% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.4%
vs +7.3% median
-80% below peer median
Net Margin
3.7%
vs 4.2% median
-12% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CHR CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | $21.9B | 30.0x | +1.4% | 3.7% | Hold | +3.9% |
EXP EXPD Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. | $21.5B | 23.8x | +3.1% | 7.5% | Hold | -6.0% |
XPO XPO XPO Logistics, Inc. | $23.4B | 40.5x | +7.4% | 4.2% | Buy | +10.3% |
FWR FWRD Forward Air Corporation | $431M | — | +7.3% | -3.7% | Hold | +28.5% |
RXO RXO RXO, Inc. | $4.2B | 568.0x | +8.3% | -1.8% | Hold | -19.7% |
UPS UPS United Parcel Service, Inc. | $89.2B | 14.8x | +1.1% | 5.9% | Hold | +9.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CHRW Dividend and Capital Return
CHRW returns 3.0% annually — 1.34% through dividends and 1.6% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.6%
Dividend Yield
1.34%
Payout Ratio
51.3%
How CHRW Splits Its Return
Div 1.34%
Buyback 1.6%
Dividend 1.34%Buybacks 1.6%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.48
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
29Y
3Y Div CAGR
3.3%
5Y Div CAGR
4.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$355M
Estimated Shares Retired
2M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
119M
At 1.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.26 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.49 | +1.2% | 1.8% | 3.4% |
| 2024 | $2.46 | +0.8% | 0.0% | 2.4% |
| 2023 | $2.44 | +8.0% | 0.6% | 3.4% |
| 2022 | $2.26 | +8.7% | 12.5% | 15.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsCHRW Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 46 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 22 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $192, implying +3.9% from the current price of $185. The bear case scenario is $152 and the bull case is $318.
02What is the CHRW stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CHRW is $192 based on 46 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $230 (+24.3% from today), and the low-end target is $90 (-51.4%). The base case model target is $241.
03Is C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW) stock overvalued in 2026?
CHRW trades at 30.0x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CHRW in 2026 are: (1) Stagnant freight volumes — The company is facing challenges due to stagnant freight volumes, impacting its core logistics business. (2) Technological disruption — Aggressive technological disruption in the logistics sector poses a significant threat to CHRW's traditional business model. (3) Volatile logistics landscape — The global logistics landscape is undergoing profound transformation, creating uncertainty for CHRW's operations. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CHRW will report consensus revenue of $16.4B (+1.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.45 (+10.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $17.3B in revenue.
06When does C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW) report its next earnings?
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-29. Consensus expects EPS of $1.49 and revenue of $4.3B. Over recent quarters, CHRW has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. generate?
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW) generated $858M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 5.3%. CHRW returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.3% yield) and share repurchases ($355M TTM).