Upside case
Bull case
$289+71.5%
CHRW would need investors to value it at roughly 47x earnings — about 20x more generous than today's 27x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
46
analysts
19 bullish · 4 bearish · 46 covering CHRW
Strong Buy
0
Buy
19
Hold
23
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$187
+11.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$76 – $289
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
46
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
27.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $20.0B
CHRW price targets
Three scenarios for where CHRW stock could go
Current
~$169
Confidence
63 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $169
Bear
$76
Base
$182
Bull
$289
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$182+8.1%
This is close to how the market is already pricing CHRW — at roughly 30x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$76-55.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 15x multiple contraction could push CHRW down roughly 55% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.
CHRW · NASDAQIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsDecember year-end
C.H. Robinson Worldwide is a global third-party logistics provider that connects shippers with carriers through its extensive transportation network. The company generates revenue primarily from freight brokerage services — earning margins on the spread between what shippers pay and what carriers charge — with its North American Surface Transportation segment contributing roughly 70% of total revenue. Its key competitive advantage is its massive network of approximately 85,000 transportation partners and sophisticated technology platform that optimizes freight matching and logistics management.
Market Cap
$20.0B
Revenue TTM
$16.2B
Net Income TTM
$599M
Net Margin
3.7%
CHRW Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
17%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.17/$1.05
Revenue
$4.0B/$4.3B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.29/$1.16
Revenue
$4.1B/$4.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.40/$1.30
Revenue
$4.1B/$4.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.23/$1.12
Revenue
$3.9B/$4.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.17/$1.05 | +11.4% | $4.0B/$4.3B | -4.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.29/$1.16 | +11.2% | $4.1B/$4.2B | -0.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.40/$1.30 | +7.7% | $4.1B/$4.2B | -2.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.23/$1.12 | +9.8% | $3.9B/$4.0B | -1.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$15.9B
-2.1% YoY
FY2
$15.3B
-3.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.27
+6.4% YoY
FY2
$5.22
-0.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$858M
FCF Margin: 5.3%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
CHRW beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CHRW Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $16.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Transportation Customer’s Freight
91.3%
-9.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
88.3%
-3.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Transportation Customer’s Freight is the largest disclosed segment at 91.3% of FY 2025 revenue, down 9.4% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 88.3%, down 3.6% YoY.
CHRW Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $189 — implies +6.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
6.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CHRW
34.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+38% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
CHRW
34.9x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
+35% premium
vs CHRW 5Y Avg P/E
Today
34.9x
vs
5Y Average
24.2x
+44% premium
Forward PE
27.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
+44%
Industrials
20.8x
+32%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
34.9x
S&P 500
25.2x
+38%
Industrials
25.9x
+35%
5Y Avg
24.2x
+44%
PEG Ratio
6.51x
S&P 500
1.75x
+273%
Industrials
1.59x
+310%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
23.9x
S&P 500
15.3x
+57%
Industrials
13.9x
+72%
5Y Avg
17.1x
+40%
Price/FCF
22.3x
S&P 500
21.3x
+5%
Industrials
20.6x
+8%
5Y Avg
17.8x
+26%
Price/Sales
1.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
-61%
Industrials
1.6x
-22%
5Y Avg
0.7x
+72%
Dividend Yield
1.47%
S&P 500
1.88%
-22%
Industrials
1.24%
+19%
5Y Avg
2.22%
-34%
| Metric | CHRW | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg CHRW |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 27.4x | 19.1x+44% | 20.8x+32% | — |
| Trailing PE | 34.9x | 25.2x+38% | 25.9x+35% | 24.2x+44% |
| PEG Ratio | 6.51x | 1.75x+273% | 1.59x+310% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.9x | 15.3x+57% | 13.9x+72% | 17.1x+40% |
| Price/FCF | 22.3x | 21.3x | 20.6x | 17.8x+26% |
| Price/Sales | 1.2x | 3.1x-61% | 1.6x-22% | 0.7x+72% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.47% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 2.22% |
CHRW trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCHRW Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
CHRW 18.0% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 3.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$16.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-6.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
8.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
4.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
3.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.95
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$858M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
5.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
18.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$161M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.7× FCF
~1.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
33.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.2%
Dividend
1.5%
Buyback
1.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$355M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.48
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
51.3%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
119M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCHRW Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Revenue Growth and Profitability
C.H. Robinson has faced stagnant long-term revenue growth, with recent sales figures nearly matching those from five years ago. The company operates with low gross margins of approximately 7.4%, indicating significant competition and pressure on profitability.
High Risk
Valuation and Market Position
CHRW's current P/E ratio exceeds 33x, which is considered high relative to its growth prospects and margins. Increasing competition raises concerns about the company's ability to maintain market share and operating margins.
Medium
Operational and Economic Factors
The company is exposed to global macroeconomic risks, including foreign exchange fluctuations and disruptions in the transportation industry. Changes in fuel prices and the availability of truck capacity could also impact operational efficiency.
Medium
Technological and Cybersecurity Risks
While CHRW is investing in technology, including AI-driven platforms, there are inherent risks related to cybersecurity. The responsible development and deployment of AI technologies pose additional challenges.
Lower
Divestitures and Segment Performance
The divestiture of its Europe Surface Transportation business has negatively affected total revenues and adjusted gross profits. Although the North American Surface Transportation segment has shown growth, the Global Forwarding segment is struggling with declining ocean rates.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CHRW Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Dominant Market Position and Trends
CHRW is a leading player in freight transportation and logistics, benefiting from long-term trends of outsourcing in supply chains. Its established global network of carriers and technology platforms makes it a go-to provider for shippers.
Technological Innovation (Navisphere and Lean AI)
The company's investment in technology, particularly its Navisphere platform and 'Lean AI' initiatives, is seen as a key differentiator. These advancements are improving operational efficiency, productivity, and margins, leading to deeper customer reliance and higher-margin services.
Freight Cycle Turnaround
Analysts and traders are optimistic about an impending rebound in the freight industry. Data suggests the freight downturn is ending, which should lead to a meaningful recovery in CHRW's earnings.
Margin Improvement and Shareholder Returns
Management is focused on operational efficiency to protect service levels and expand margins, even in a challenging freight environment. CHRW has also highlighted shareholder returns through a significant share repurchase program, which can support the stock price.
Financial Health and Growth Prospects
Despite some valuation concerns, CHRW has demonstrated strong financial performance, with a high return on equity and manageable debt. Earnings are projected to grow significantly in the coming year.
Dividend Growth
CHRW has a history of increasing its dividend for 27 years, offering a meaningful dividend yield that is sustainable.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CHRW Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$168.59
52W Range Position
70%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$86.58
+94.7% from the low
52-Week High
$203.34
-17.1% from the high
1 Month
-0.25%
3 Month
-15.95%
YTD
+3.0%
1 Year
+90.9%
3Y CAGR
+17.9%
5Y CAGR
+11.5%
10Y CAGR
+8.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CHRW vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
27.4x
vs 25.0x median
+10% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-2.1%
vs +3.3% median
-164% below peer median
Net Margin
3.7%
vs 4.2% median
-12% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CHR CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | $20.0B | 27.4x | -2.1% | 3.7% | Hold | +11.1% |
EXP EXPD Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. | $20.1B | 25.0x | -0.7% | 7.5% | Hold | -7.3% |
XPO XPO XPO Logistics, Inc. | $24.8B | 44.9x | +3.3% | 4.2% | Buy | -1.2% |
FWR FWRD Forward Air Corporation | $573M | — | +7.0% | -4.3% | Hold | +101.5% |
RXO RXO RXO, Inc. | $3.2B | — | +10.8% | -1.7% | Hold | -18.5% |
UPS UPS United Parcel Service, Inc. | $84.9B | 14.1x | +0.0% | 5.9% | Hold | +15.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CHRW Dividend and Capital Return
CHRW returns 3.2% annually — 1.47% through dividends and 1.8% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.8%
Dividend Yield
1.47%
Payout Ratio
51.3%
How CHRW Splits Its Return
Div 1.47%
Buyback 1.8%
Dividend 1.47%Buybacks 1.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.48
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
14Y
3Y Div CAGR
3.3%
5Y Div CAGR
4.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$355M
Estimated Shares Retired
2M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
119M
At 1.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.63 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.49 | +1.2% | 1.8% | 3.4% |
| 2024 | $2.46 | +0.8% | 0.0% | 2.4% |
| 2023 | $2.44 | +8.0% | 0.6% | 3.4% |
| 2022 | $2.26 | +8.7% | 12.5% | 15.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsCHRW Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 46 analysts covering the stock, 19 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 23 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $187, implying +11.1% from the current price of $169. The bear case scenario is $76 and the bull case is $289.
02What is the CHRW stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CHRW is $187 based on 46 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $230 (+36.4% from today), and the low-end target is $90 (-46.6%). The base case model target is $182.
03Is C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW) stock overvalued in 2026?
CHRW trades at 27.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CHRW in 2026 are: (1) Revenue Growth and Profitability — C. (2) Valuation and Market Position — CHRW's current P/E ratio exceeds 33x, which is considered high relative to its growth prospects and margins. (3) Operational and Economic Factors — The company is exposed to global macroeconomic risks, including foreign exchange fluctuations and disruptions in the transportation industry. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CHRW will report consensus revenue of $15.9B (-2.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.27 (+6.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $15.3B in revenue.
06When does C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for CHRW is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. generate?
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW) generated $858M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 5.3%. CHRW returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.5% yield) and share repurchases ($355M TTM).