Upside case
Bull case
$587-8.2%
The bull case prices RBC at 48x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
RBC Bearings Incorporated (RBC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
26
analysts
15 bullish · 1 bearish · 26 covering RBC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
15
Hold
10
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$598
-6.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$281 – $587
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
26
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
52.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $20.2B
RBC price targets
Three scenarios for where RBC stock could go
Current
~$639
Confidence
47 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $639
Bear
$281
Base
$445
Bull
$587
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$445-30.3%
At 37x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$281-56.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 29x multiple contraction could push RBC down roughly 56% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
RBC Bearings Incorporated
RBC · NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesMarch year-end
RBC Bearings is a manufacturer of high-precision engineered bearings and components for demanding aerospace, defense, and industrial applications. It generates revenue primarily from its Aerospace/Defense segment — which accounts for roughly 70% of sales — and its Industrial segment, which serves machinery, energy, and transportation markets. The company's competitive moat lies in its deep engineering expertise, proprietary designs for mission-critical applications, and long-standing relationships with aerospace and defense OEMs where qualification barriers are extremely high.
Market Cap
$20.2B
Revenue TTM
$1.9B
Net Income TTM
$288M
Net Margin
15.4%
RBC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.84/$2.74
Revenue
$436M/$439M
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.88/$2.73
Revenue
$455M/$450M
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.04/$2.85
Revenue
$462M/$460M
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.62/$3.33
Revenue
$518M/$506M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.84/$2.74 | +3.6% | $436M/$439M | -0.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.88/$2.73 | +5.5% | $455M/$450M | +1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.04/$2.85 | +6.7% | $462M/$460M | +0.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.62/$3.33 | +8.7% | $518M/$506M | +2.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$2.0B
+7.9% YoY
FY2
$2.1B
+5.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$9.60
+5.8% YoY
FY2
$9.90
+3.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$343M
FCF Margin: 18.3%
Next Earnings
July 31, 2026
Expected EPS
$3.38
Expected Revenue
$508M
RBC beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
RBC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2026
Total disclosed revenue $1.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Industrial Member
57.9%
+3.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
100.0%
+15.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Industrial Member is the largest disclosed segment at 57.9% of FY 2026 revenue, up 3.8% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 100.0%, up 15.1% YoY.
RBC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $297 — implies -53.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
53.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
RBC
70.3x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+188% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
RBC
70.3x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
+175% premium
vs RBC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
70.3x
vs
5Y Average
62.9x
+12% premium
Forward PE
52.5x
S&P 500
18.8x
+179%
Industrials
21.2x
+148%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
70.3x
S&P 500
24.4x
+188%
Industrials
25.6x
+175%
5Y Avg
62.9x
+12%
PEG Ratio
3.43x
S&P 500
1.66x
+107%
Industrials
1.65x
+108%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
50.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
+230%
Industrials
13.9x
+262%
5Y Avg
28.2x
+78%
Price/FCF
59.0x
S&P 500
20.7x
+185%
Industrials
20.0x
+194%
5Y Avg
39.1x
+51%
Price/Sales
10.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+250%
Industrials
1.6x
+592%
5Y Avg
6.1x
+78%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Industrials
1.21%
—
5Y Avg
0.23%
—
| Metric | RBC | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg RBC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 52.5x | 18.8x+179% | 21.2x+148% | — |
| Trailing PE | 70.3x | 24.4x+188% | 25.6x+175% | 62.9x+12% |
| PEG Ratio | 3.43x | 1.66x+107% | 1.65x+108% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 50.2x | 15.2x+230% | 13.9x+262% | 28.2x+78% |
| Price/FCF | 59.0x | 20.7x+185% | 20.0x+194% | 39.1x+51% |
| Price/Sales | 10.8x | 3.1x+250% | 1.6x+592% | 6.1x+78% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.21% | 0.23% |
RBC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolRBC Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
RBC generates $343M in free cash flow at a 18.3% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+14.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
44.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
22.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
15.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.07
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$343M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
18.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$57M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$934M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.7× FCF
~2.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
8.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
32M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageRBC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Operational Bottlenecks
Management notes that 70% of A&D revenue faces demand significantly over capacity, with hiring, shift additions, and CapEx efficiency being critical bottlenecks.
Medium
Backlog Conversion Risks
Despite beating Q4 revenue estimates, the company's ability to convert backlog is constrained by operational inefficiencies.
Medium
Market Demand Volatility
Aerospace & Defense and Industrial markets may face demand fluctuations, impacting revenue stability.
Lower
Forward-Looking Uncertainty
Cautionary statements highlight risks in forward-looking projections, though specific threats are not detailed.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why RBC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong Aerospace and Defense Performance
RBC Bearings reported strong year-over-year revenue and net income growth, driven by exceptional performance in its Aerospace and Defense segment and continued order momentum.
Diversified Customer Base
RBC's diversified customer base and long-term contracts with defense primes mitigate risks and provide stability.
Strategic Acquisitions
The acquisition of VACCO and strong Q1 2026 results present a compelling case for long-term growth and margin expansion.
Investor Day Insights
Key insights from RBC Investor Day 2025 highlight strategic priorities, financial performance, and a long-term vision, reinforcing growth potential.
Bullish Market Sentiment
A bullish thesis on RBC Bearings emphasizes its growth potential, supported by recent performance and strategic initiatives.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
RBC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$639.18
52W Range Position
100%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$363.05
+76.1% from the low
52-Week High
$640.02
-0.1% from the high
1 Month
+15.98%
3 Month
+16.68%
YTD
+39.3%
1 Year
+71.9%
3Y CAGR
+45.3%
5Y CAGR
+38.4%
10Y CAGR
+27.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
RBC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
52.5x
vs 27.5x median
+91% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.9%
vs +8.7% median
-9% below peer median
Net Margin
15.4%
vs -0.6% median
+2524% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RBC RBC RBC Bearings Incorporated | $20.2B | 52.5x | +7.9% | 15.4% | Buy | -6.4% |
TKR TKR The Timken Company | $9.9B | 23.1x | +2.3% | 6.8% | Buy | -2.8% |
NN NN NextNav Inc. | $2.5B | — | +12.8% | -3506.9% | Buy | +90.7% |
NNB NNBR NN, Inc. | $147M | 39.9x | +0.7% | -8.0% | Buy | — |
ITT ITT ITT Inc. | $17.6B | 25.1x | +10.0% | 10.8% | Buy | +23.6% |
GTL GTLS Chart Industries, Inc. | $10.0B | 29.9x | +8.7% | -0.6% | Buy | -6.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
RBC Dividend and Capital Return
RBC does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
32M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $0.35 | — | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 2014 | $2.00 | — | 0.1% | 0.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsRBC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is RBC Bearings Incorporated (RBC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
RBC Bearings Incorporated (RBC) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 26 analysts covering the stock, 15 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $598, implying -6.4% from the current price of $639. The bear case scenario is $281 and the bull case is $587.
02What is the RBC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for RBC is $598 based on 26 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $640 (+0.1% from today), and the low-end target is $542 (-15.2%). The base case model target is $445.
03Is RBC Bearings Incorporated (RBC) stock overvalued in 2026?
RBC trades at 52.5x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for RBC Bearings Incorporated (RBC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for RBC in 2026 are: (1) Operational Bottlenecks — Management notes that 70% of A&D revenue faces demand significantly over capacity, with hiring, shift additions, and CapEx efficiency being critical bottlenecks. (2) Backlog Conversion Risks — Despite beating Q4 revenue estimates, the company's ability to convert backlog is constrained by operational inefficiencies. (3) Market Demand Volatility — Aerospace & Defense and Industrial markets may face demand fluctuations, impacting revenue stability. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is RBC Bearings Incorporated's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates RBC will report consensus revenue of $2.0B (+7.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $9.60 (+5.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $2.1B in revenue.
06When does RBC Bearings Incorporated (RBC) report its next earnings?
RBC Bearings Incorporated is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-31. Consensus expects EPS of $3.38 and revenue of $508M. Over recent quarters, RBC has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does RBC Bearings Incorporated generate?
RBC Bearings Incorporated (RBC) generated $343M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 18.3%. RBC returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).