Upside case
Bull case
$819+31.5%
RBC would need investors to value it at roughly 67x earnings — about 16x more generous than today's 51x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
RBC Bearings Incorporated (RBC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
26
analysts
15 bullish · 1 bearish · 26 covering RBC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
15
Hold
10
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$573
-8.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$346 – $819
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
26
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
51.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $20.4B
RBC price targets
Three scenarios for where RBC stock could go
Current
~$623
Confidence
61 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $623
Bear
$346
Base
$890
Bull
$819
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$890+42.9%
At 73x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$346-44.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 23x multiple contraction could push RBC down roughly 44% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
RBC Bearings Incorporated
RBC · NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesMarch year-end
RBC Bearings is a manufacturer of high-precision engineered bearings and components for demanding aerospace, defense, and industrial applications. It generates revenue primarily from its Aerospace/Defense segment — which accounts for roughly 70% of sales — and its Industrial segment, which serves machinery, energy, and transportation markets. The company's competitive moat lies in its deep engineering expertise, proprietary designs for mission-critical applications, and long-standing relationships with aerospace and defense OEMs where qualification barriers are extremely high.
Market Cap
$20.4B
Revenue TTM
$1.8B
Net Income TTM
$269M
Net Margin
15.0%
RBC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$2.83/$2.71
Revenue
$438M/$439M
Q3 2025
EPS
$2.84/$2.74
Revenue
$436M/$439M
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.88/$2.73
Revenue
$455M/$450M
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.04/$2.85
Revenue
$462M/$460M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $2.83/$2.71 | +4.4% | $438M/$439M | -0.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.84/$2.74 | +3.6% | $436M/$439M | -0.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.88/$2.73 | +5.5% | $455M/$450M | +1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.04/$2.85 | +6.7% | $462M/$460M | +0.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$2.0B
+10.1% YoY
FY2
$2.2B
+12.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$10.17
+19.8% YoY
FY2
$11.00
+8.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$330M
FCF Margin: 18.4%
Next Earnings
May 15, 2026
Expected EPS
$3.31
Expected Revenue
$507M
RBC beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
RBC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $1.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Industrial Member
100.0%
+0.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
88.6%
+5.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Industrial Member is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 0.2% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 88.6%, up 5.4% YoY.
RBC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $247 — implies -58.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
58.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
RBC
80.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+221% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
RBC
80.9x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
+213% premium
vs RBC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
80.9x
vs
5Y Average
59.1x
+37% premium
Forward PE
51.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
+169%
Industrials
20.8x
+146%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
80.9x
S&P 500
25.2x
+221%
Industrials
25.9x
+213%
5Y Avg
59.1x
+37%
PEG Ratio
9.24x
S&P 500
1.75x
+429%
Industrials
1.59x
+482%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
43.6x
S&P 500
15.3x
+186%
Industrials
13.9x
+214%
5Y Avg
24.5x
+78%
Price/FCF
83.6x
S&P 500
21.3x
+292%
Industrials
20.6x
+305%
5Y Avg
34.3x
+143%
Price/Sales
12.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+298%
Industrials
1.6x
+683%
5Y Avg
5.4x
+129%
Dividend Yield
0.09%
S&P 500
1.88%
-95%
Industrials
1.24%
-93%
5Y Avg
0.23%
-61%
| Metric | RBC | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg RBC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 51.3x | 19.1x+169% | 20.8x+146% | — |
| Trailing PE | 80.9x | 25.2x+221% | 25.9x+213% | 59.1x+37% |
| PEG Ratio | 9.24x | 1.75x+429% | 1.59x+482% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 43.6x | 15.3x+186% | 13.9x+214% | 24.5x+78% |
| Price/FCF | 83.6x | 21.3x+292% | 20.6x+305% | 34.3x+143% |
| Price/Sales | 12.5x | 3.1x+298% | 1.6x+683% | 5.4x+129% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.09% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 0.23% |
RBC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolRBC Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
RBC generates $330M in free cash flow at a 18.4% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+11.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
44.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
23.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
15.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$8.49
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$330M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
18.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$37M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$992M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.0× FCF
~3.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
8.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.1%
Dividend
0.1%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$10M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.57
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
30M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageRBC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Credit Risk
RBC faces significant credit risk, particularly related to mortgage renewals for Canadians who secured loans during the low-rate period from 2020 to 2022. As interest rates rise, the likelihood of borrower defaults increases, which could adversely affect the bank's financial performance.
High Risk
Geopolitical Uncertainty
Geopolitical instability and escalating trade tensions pose a high risk to RBC's operations. Such uncertainties can lead to market volatility and impact global economic conditions, which are critical for the bank's performance.
High Risk
Interest Rate Fluctuations
Rising interest rates can significantly decrease the value of RBC's existing interest-bearing investments. This risk is exacerbated by the current economic environment, where interest rates are expected to remain volatile.
Medium
Stagflation Risks
The potential for a 'stagflation light' scenario presents a medium risk to RBC, characterized by resilient growth coupled with moderated inflation. This could lead to increased loan defaults and a flight to cash among investors.
Medium
Regulatory Changes
Evolving regulations and potential increases in capital buffer requirements pose a medium risk to RBC. Changes in regulatory frameworks can impact the bank's operational flexibility and financial metrics.
Medium
Digital Disruption
The rapid pace of technological change presents both opportunities and risks for RBC. Failure to adapt to digital innovations could hinder the bank's competitive position in the financial services market.
Lower
Environmental and Social Risks
Growing awareness of environmental and social factors presents a lower risk to RBC. While these issues are increasingly important to investors, their immediate financial impact on the bank remains limited.
Lower
Reputational Risk
Maintaining a strong reputation is crucial for RBC, especially in the financial sector. Any missteps in governance or customer service could lead to reputational damage, although the immediate financial implications are considered lower.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why RBC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Financial Performance
RBC has demonstrated a significant year-over-year revenue increase, driven by strong backlog growth and operational efficiencies. The company has also reported a substantial increase in EPS, surpassing analyst estimates, indicating strong financial performance.
Diversified Revenue Streams
RBC operates across various sectors including personal and commercial banking, wealth management, insurance, and capital markets, providing a diversified and stable revenue base. This diversification helps mitigate risks and supports consistent revenue growth.
Aerospace and Defense Growth
RBC Bearings is well-positioned for growth due to the recovery in commercial aerospace demand, having secured new contracts with price increases. This segment is expected to benefit significantly from the ongoing recovery in the aerospace sector.
Wealth Management and U.S. Expansion
Higher-margin drivers in wealth management and U.S. operations are contributing to improved net margins. The focus on these areas is expected to enhance overall profitability and drive future growth.
Strategic Fintech Acquisitions
Recent fintech acquisitions and robust loan growth are driving a bullish outlook for RBC's growth factors. These strategic moves are expected to enhance RBC's competitive position in the financial services market.
Economic Resilience and Long-Term Themes
RBC Economics anticipates continued resilience in the U.S. economy and modest global growth in 2026, with potential for upside surprises. Long-term themes identified by RBC Wealth Management, such as AI and technological advancements, are expected to shape economic developments and drive sectors in the coming decades.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
RBC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$623.13
52W Range Position
97%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$337.43
+84.7% from the low
52-Week High
$631.88
-1.4% from the high
1 Month
+12.80%
3 Month
+14.54%
YTD
+35.8%
1 Year
+82.4%
3Y CAGR
+40.7%
5Y CAGR
+32.8%
10Y CAGR
+25.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
RBC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
51.3x
vs 24.3x median
+111% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+10.1%
vs +1.7% median
+478% above peer median
Net Margin
15.0%
vs 0.9% median
+1487% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RBC RBC RBC Bearings Incorporated | $20.4B | 51.3x | +10.1% | 15.0% | Buy | -8.1% |
TKR TKR The Timken Company | $8.4B | 20.3x | +1.7% | 6.8% | Buy | -3.7% |
NN NN NextNav Inc. | $2.6B | — | -0.3% | -4138.5% | Buy | +36.2% |
NNB NNBR NN, Inc. | $126M | 39.8x | -4.3% | -8.0% | Buy | — |
ITT ITT ITT Inc. | $19.4B | 28.3x | +14.2% | 10.8% | Buy | +6.0% |
GTL GTLS Chart Industries, Inc. | $9.9B | 16.4x | +16.7% | 0.9% | Buy | -6.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
RBC Dividend and Capital Return
RBC returns 0.1% total yield, led by a 0.09% dividend.
Dividend UnknownFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
0.09%
Payout Ratio
—
How RBC Splits Its Return
Div 0.09%
Buyback 0.0%
Dividend 0.09%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.57
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
29.7%
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$10M
Estimated Shares Retired
15.2K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
30M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $0.35 | — | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 2014 | $2.00 | — | 0.1% | 0.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsRBC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is RBC Bearings Incorporated (RBC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
RBC Bearings Incorporated (RBC) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 26 analysts covering the stock, 15 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $573, implying -8.1% from the current price of $623. The bear case scenario is $346 and the bull case is $819.
02What is the RBC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for RBC is $573 based on 26 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $600 (-3.7% from today), and the low-end target is $527 (-15.4%). The base case model target is $890.
03Is RBC Bearings Incorporated (RBC) stock overvalued in 2026?
RBC trades at 51.3x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for RBC Bearings Incorporated (RBC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for RBC in 2026 are: (1) Credit Risk — RBC faces significant credit risk, particularly related to mortgage renewals for Canadians who secured loans during the low-rate period from 2020 to 2022. (2) Geopolitical Uncertainty — Geopolitical instability and escalating trade tensions pose a high risk to RBC's operations. (3) Interest Rate Fluctuations — Rising interest rates can significantly decrease the value of RBC's existing interest-bearing investments. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is RBC Bearings Incorporated's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates RBC will report consensus revenue of $2.0B (+10.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $10.17 (+19.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $2.2B in revenue.
06When does RBC Bearings Incorporated (RBC) report its next earnings?
RBC Bearings Incorporated is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-15. Consensus expects EPS of $3.31 and revenue of $507M. Over recent quarters, RBC has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does RBC Bearings Incorporated generate?
RBC Bearings Incorporated (RBC) generated $330M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 18.4%. RBC returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.1% yield) and share repurchases ($10M TTM).