Upside case
Bull case
$254+78.2%
TKR would need investors to value it at roughly 41x earnings — about 18x more generous than today's 23x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
The Timken Company (TKR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
24
analysts
14 bullish · 0 bearish · 24 covering TKR
Strong Buy
0
Buy
14
Hold
10
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$138
-2.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$121 – $254
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
24
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
23.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $9.9B
TKR price targets
Three scenarios for where TKR stock could go
Current
~$142
Confidence
47 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $142
Bear
$121
Base
$193
Bull
$254
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$193+35.2%
At 31x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$121-14.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push TKR down roughly 15% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
The Timken Company
TKR · NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesDecember year-end
Timken is a global manufacturer of engineered bearings and power transmission products for industrial machinery and vehicles. It generates revenue primarily through two segments—Mobile Industries (roughly 60% of sales) serving off-highway and on-highway vehicle markets, and Process Industries (roughly 40%) serving industrial equipment in sectors like mining, energy, and food processing. The company's moat lies in its deep engineering expertise, proprietary metallurgy, and long-standing relationships with OEMs who rely on Timken's high-performance components for critical applications.
Market Cap
$9.9B
Revenue TTM
$4.7B
Net Income TTM
$316M
Net Margin
6.8%
TKR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.42/$1.34
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.37/$1.25
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.14/$1.09
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.67/$1.50
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.42/$1.34 | +6.0% | $1.2B/$1.1B | +4.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.37/$1.25 | +9.6% | $1.2B/$1.1B | +3.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.14/$1.09 | +4.6% | $1.1B/$1.1B | +3.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.67/$1.50 | +11.3% | $1.2B/$1.2B | +5.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.8B
+2.3% YoY
FY2
$4.9B
+2.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.24
+16.4% YoY
FY2
$5.77
+10.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$383M
FCF Margin: 8.2%
Next Earnings
July 29, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.62
Expected Revenue
$1.2B
TKR beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
TKR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $4.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Engineered Bearings
65.9%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
EMEA
45.0%
+0.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Engineered Bearings is the largest disclosed segment at 65.9% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
EMEA is the largest reported region at 45.0%, up 0.7% YoY.
TKR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $243 — implies +70.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
70.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TKR
34.6x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+42% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
TKR
34.6x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
+35% premium
vs TKR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
34.6x
vs
5Y Average
15.4x
+126% premium
Forward PE
23.1x
S&P 500
18.8x
+23%
Industrials
21.2x
+9%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
34.6x
S&P 500
24.4x
+42%
Industrials
25.6x
+35%
5Y Avg
15.4x
+126%
PEG Ratio
17.20x
S&P 500
1.66x
+936%
Industrials
1.65x
+944%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
-3%
Industrials
13.9x
+6%
5Y Avg
9.3x
+59%
Price/FCF
24.4x
S&P 500
20.7x
+18%
Industrials
20.0x
+22%
5Y Avg
17.6x
+38%
Price/Sales
2.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
-30%
Industrials
1.6x
+38%
5Y Avg
1.2x
+78%
Dividend Yield
0.98%
S&P 500
1.91%
-49%
Industrials
1.21%
-19%
5Y Avg
1.73%
-43%
| Metric | TKR | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg TKR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 23.1x | 18.8x+23% | 21.2x | — |
| Trailing PE | 34.6x | 24.4x+42% | 25.6x+35% | 15.4x+126% |
| PEG Ratio | 17.20x | 1.66x+936% | 1.65x+944% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.7x | 15.2x | 13.9x | 9.3x+59% |
| Price/FCF | 24.4x | 20.7x+18% | 20.0x+22% | 17.6x+38% |
| Price/Sales | 2.2x | 3.1x-30% | 1.6x+38% | 1.2x+78% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.98% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 1.73% |
TKR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTKR Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
TKR generates $383M in free cash flow at a 8.2% margin — returns 1.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+3.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
20.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
12.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
6.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.50
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$383M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
8.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
8.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$365M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.7× FCF
~4.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
9.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.6%
Dividend
1.0%
Buyback
0.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$57M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.40
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
34.1%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
69M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTKR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Medium
Macroeconomic Sensitivity
Factors such as interest rates, inflation, and commodity prices could negatively impact broader demand trends for Timken's products.
High Risk
Technology Disruption Risk
Analysts caution that shifts in technology and sustainability trends may reduce demand for traditional mechanical bearings, a core product for Timken.
Medium
Guidance Execution Risk
Despite raising revenue growth guidance, Timken faces execution risks in meeting its 2026 targets, which could disappoint investors if missed.
Lower
Valuation Concerns
Bears highlight strong financial performance but suggest potential overvaluation, with price predictions indicating limited upside or downside risk.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TKR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong Q1 2026 performance
Timken reported Q1 revenue of $1.2 billion and basic EPS of $1.41, setting a positive tone for the year.
Upgraded 2026 guidance
The company raised its full-year earnings and revenue outlook, signaling confidence in future performance.
Increased dividend payout
Timken increased its quarterly dividend to $0.36 per share, reflecting strong cash flow and commitment to shareholders.
Share repurchase activity
The company updated its share repurchase program, indicating a focus on returning capital to shareholders.
Operating margin advantage
Timken's operating margin of 12.5% is 1.7x the industry average, highlighting operational efficiency.
Revenue beat
The company recorded a 5.9% revenue beat, exceeding analyst expectations and demonstrating strong demand.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TKR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$142.36
52W Range Position
98%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$69.26
+105.5% from the low
52-Week High
$143.56
-0.8% from the high
1 Month
+26.28%
3 Month
+44.93%
YTD
+65.0%
1 Year
+101.6%
3Y CAGR
+18.2%
5Y CAGR
+12.6%
10Y CAGR
+15.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TKR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
23.1x
vs 35.2x median
-34% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.3%
vs +7.9% median
-71% below peer median
Net Margin
6.8%
vs -0.6% median
+1166% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TKR TKR The Timken Company | $9.9B | 23.1x | +2.3% | 6.8% | Buy | -2.8% |
RBC RBC RBC Bearings Incorporated | $20.2B | 52.5x | +7.9% | 15.4% | Buy | -6.4% |
NN NN NextNav Inc. | $2.5B | — | +12.8% | -3506.9% | Buy | +90.7% |
NNB NNBR NN, Inc. | $147M | 39.9x | +0.7% | -8.0% | Buy | — |
GTL GTLS Chart Industries, Inc. | $10.0B | 29.9x | +8.7% | -0.6% | Buy | -6.8% |
PH PH Parker-Hannifin Corporation | $120.3B | 30.5x | +3.1% | 16.6% | Buy | +9.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TKR Dividend and Capital Return
TKR returns 1.6% total yield, led by a 0.98% dividend, raised 12 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 0.6%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.6%
Dividend Yield
0.98%
Payout Ratio
34.1%
How TKR Splits Its Return
Div 0.98%
Buyback 0.6%
Dividend 0.98%Buybacks 0.6%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.40
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
12Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.2%
5Y Div CAGR
4.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$57M
Estimated Shares Retired
403.2K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
69M
At 0.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.71 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.39 | +3.0% | 1.0% | 2.6% |
| 2024 | $1.35 | +3.8% | 0.8% | 2.7% |
| 2023 | $1.30 | +5.7% | 4.3% | 6.0% |
| 2022 | $1.23 | +3.4% | 4.0% | 5.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsTKR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is The Timken Company (TKR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
The Timken Company (TKR) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 24 analysts covering the stock, 14 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $138, implying -2.8% from the current price of $142. The bear case scenario is $121 and the bull case is $254.
02What is the TKR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TKR is $138 based on 24 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $158 (+11.0% from today), and the low-end target is $117 (-17.8%). The base case model target is $193.
03Is The Timken Company (TKR) stock overvalued in 2026?
TKR trades at 23.1x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for The Timken Company (TKR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TKR in 2026 are: (1) Technology Disruption Risk — Analysts caution that shifts in technology and sustainability trends may reduce demand for traditional mechanical bearings, a core product for Timken. (2) Macroeconomic Sensitivity — Factors such as interest rates, inflation, and commodity prices could negatively impact broader demand trends for Timken's products. (3) Guidance Execution Risk — Despite raising revenue growth guidance, Timken faces execution risks in meeting its 2026 targets, which could disappoint investors if missed. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is The Timken Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TKR will report consensus revenue of $4.8B (+2.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.24 (+16.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.9B in revenue.
06When does The Timken Company (TKR) report its next earnings?
The Timken Company is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-29. Consensus expects EPS of $1.62 and revenue of $1.2B. Over recent quarters, TKR has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does The Timken Company generate?
The Timken Company (TKR) generated $383M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 8.2%. TKR returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.0% yield) and share repurchases ($57M TTM).