Upside case
Bull case
$370+62.9%
ROST would need investors to value it at roughly 57x earnings — about 22x more generous than today's 35x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
47
analysts
31 bullish · 4 bearish · 47 covering ROST
Strong Buy
0
Buy
31
Hold
12
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$214
-6.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$78 – $370
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
47
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
34.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $74.8B
ROST price targets
Three scenarios for where ROST stock could go
Current
~$227
Confidence
66 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $227
Bear
$78
Base
$274
Bull
$370
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$274+20.3%
At 42x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$78-65.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 23x multiple contraction could push ROST down roughly 66% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Ross Stores, Inc.
ROST · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalApparel - RetailJanuary year-end
Ross Stores operates off-price retail chains — Ross Dress for Less and dd's DISCOUNTS — selling brand-name apparel, accessories, and home goods at 20-60% below department store prices. It makes money through retail sales at its physical stores, with Ross targeting middle-income shoppers and dd's DISCOUNTS serving more budget-conscious households. The company's competitive advantage lies in its sophisticated supply chain and opportunistic buying model that secures excess inventory and closeout merchandise from manufacturers and retailers at deep discounts.
Market Cap
$74.8B
Revenue TTM
$22.8B
Net Income TTM
$2.1B
Net Margin
9.4%
ROST Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.47/$1.44
Revenue
$5.0B/$5.0B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.56/$1.53
Revenue
$5.5B/$5.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.58/$1.42
Revenue
$5.6B/$5.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.00/$1.90
Revenue
$6.6B/$6.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.47/$1.44 | +2.1% | $5.0B/$5.0B | +0.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.56/$1.53 | +2.0% | $5.5B/$5.5B | -0.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.58/$1.42 | +11.3% | $5.6B/$5.4B | +3.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.00/$1.90 | +5.3% | $6.6B/$6.4B | +3.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$23.7B
+4.0% YoY
FY2
$25.9B
+9.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.01
+5.5% YoY
FY2
$7.96
+13.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.2B
FCF Margin: 9.7%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
ROST beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
ROST Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $21.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Home Accents and Bed and Bath
26.0%
+3.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Home Accents and Bed and Bath is the largest disclosed segment at 26.0% of FY 2024 revenue, up 3.7% YoY.
ROST Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $206 — implies -9.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
9.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ROST
34.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+37% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
ROST
34.4x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
+78% premium
vs ROST 5Y Avg P/E
Today
34.4x
vs
5Y Average
24.9x
+38% premium
Forward PE
34.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
+83%
Consumer Cyclical
15.1x
+131%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
34.4x
S&P 500
25.1x
+37%
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
+78%
5Y Avg
24.9x
+38%
PEG Ratio
0.37x
S&P 500
1.72x
-79%
Consumer Cyclical
0.91x
-60%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
21.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
+38%
Consumer Cyclical
11.3x
+86%
5Y Avg
16.5x
+28%
Price/FCF
33.9x
S&P 500
21.1x
+61%
Consumer Cyclical
14.6x
+132%
5Y Avg
30.8x
+10%
Price/Sales
3.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+5%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+359%
5Y Avg
2.3x
+45%
Dividend Yield
0.72%
S&P 500
1.87%
-62%
Consumer Cyclical
2.23%
-68%
5Y Avg
1.01%
-29%
| Metric | ROST | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg ROST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 34.9x | 19.1x+83% | 15.1x+131% | — |
| Trailing PE | 34.4x | 25.1x+37% | 19.3x+78% | 24.9x+38% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.37x | 1.72x-79% | 0.91x-60% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.0x | 15.2x+38% | 11.3x+86% | 16.5x+28% |
| Price/FCF | 33.9x | 21.1x+61% | 14.6x+132% | 30.8x+10% |
| Price/Sales | 3.3x | 3.1x | 0.7x+359% | 2.3x+45% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.72% | 1.87% | 2.23% | 1.01% |
ROST trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolROST Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
ROST generates $2.2B in free cash flow at a 9.7% margin — 30.0% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$22.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+7.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
27.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
11.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
9.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.64
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
9.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
30.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
14.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$4.6B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$618M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.3× FCF
~0.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
36.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.2%
Dividend
0.7%
Buyback
1.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.1B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.64
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
24.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
323M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageROST Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Tariff & Trade Exposure
A significant portion of Ross Stores’ merchandise is sourced from China, making the company vulnerable to U.S. trade policy changes and tariffs. New tariffs could raise procurement costs and squeeze gross margins if the company cannot pass these costs onto its price‑sensitive customers.
High Risk
Labor Cost Risk
Rising labor costs, including minimum wage increases and a tight labor market with high turnover, can compress operating margins. Operational inconsistencies may also affect customer experience if staffing levels cannot be maintained.
High Risk
Inventory Supply Risk
Ross’s off‑price model relies on excess inventory from manufacturers and retailers. Disruptions or changes in supplier relationships could limit the company’s ability to procure desirable merchandise at competitive prices, impacting sales and inventory turnover.
High Risk
Competitive Landscape
The off‑price retail sector is highly competitive, with rivals ranging from other off‑price chains to traditional retailers and online platforms. Increased competition for off‑price inventory and the rise of direct‑to‑consumer brand channels could erode Ross’s sourcing advantage and market share.
High Risk
Growth & Profitability Risk
Ross’s aggressive expansion aims to increase store count, but rapid growth can dilute profitability if new locations fail to achieve marginal efficiency. Managing operating costs across an expanding footprint is critical to sustaining per‑store earnings.
Medium
E‑commerce Gap
While Ross is exploring e‑commerce, its traditional focus on brick‑and‑mortar limits its ability to capture market share from e‑commerce‑savvy competitors. A weaker online platform could reduce revenue diversification and expose the company to shifting consumer shopping habits.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ROST Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Off‑Price Model Dominance
Ross Stores is the largest off‑price apparel and home fashion chain in the U.S., offering first‑quality, in‑season name‑brand and designer apparel at 20‑60% off regular prices. This discount model attracts a broad, value‑conscious customer base and drives high foot traffic and transaction volume.
Robust Revenue and Store Growth
Net sales rose 8% year‑over‑year to $22.75 billion in 2025, while comparable‑store sales grew 9% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025. Earnings per share consistently beat analyst expectations, underscoring the company’s strong operating performance.
Aggressive Store Expansion
The company plans to open 110 new stores in fiscal 2026, expanding its footprint and market reach. Concurrently, Ross is investing in digital marketing and influencer partnerships to enhance brand visibility and drive online traffic.
Strong Balance Sheet and Capital Return
Ross maintains more cash than total debt and has reduced its debt‑to‑equity ratio over the past five years. It has authorized a $2.55 billion share repurchase program and increased its dividend, signaling a commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ROST Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$227.42
52W Range Position
97%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$124.49
+82.7% from the low
52-Week High
$230.43
-1.3% from the high
1 Month
+2.81%
3 Month
+20.18%
YTD
+24.4%
1 Year
+60.8%
3Y CAGR
+29.6%
5Y CAGR
+12.1%
10Y CAGR
+14.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ROST vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
34.9x
vs 21.1x median
+65% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.0%
vs +4.7% median
-13% below peer median
Net Margin
9.4%
vs 5.3% median
+79% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ROS ROST Ross Stores, Inc. | $74.8B | 34.9x | +4.0% | 9.4% | Buy | -6.0% |
TJX TJX The TJX Companies, Inc. | $172.0B | 33.1x | +4.7% | 9.1% | Buy | +11.0% |
BUR BURL Burlington Stores, Inc. | $19.8B | 32.0x | +7.1% | 5.3% | Buy | +6.1% |
OLL OLLI Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. | $5.0B | 21.1x | +10.2% | 9.1% | Buy | +70.8% |
KSS KSS Kohl's Corporation | $1.6B | 10.2x | -3.8% | 1.7% | Hold | +26.4% |
M M Macy's, Inc. | $5.4B | 8.8x | -1.7% | 2.8% | Hold | -0.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ROST Dividend and Capital Return
ROST returns capital mainly through $1.1B/year in buybacks (1.5% buyback yield), with a modest 0.72% dividend — combining for 2.2% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 5 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.5%
Dividend Yield
0.72%
Payout Ratio
24.6%
How ROST Splits Its Return
Div 0.72%
Buyback 1.5%
Dividend 0.72%Buybacks 1.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.64
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
9.3%
5Y Div CAGR
41.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.1B
Estimated Shares Retired
5M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
323M
At 1.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.45 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.62 | +10.2% | 1.9% | 2.7% |
| 2024 | $1.47 | +9.7% | 2.3% | 3.3% |
| 2023 | $1.34 | +8.1% | 2.1% | 3.1% |
| 2022 | $1.24 | +8.8% | 2.4% | 3.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsROST Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 47 analysts covering the stock, 31 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $214, implying -6.0% from the current price of $227. The bear case scenario is $78 and the bull case is $370.
02What is the ROST stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ROST is $214 based on 47 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $290 (+27.5% from today), and the low-end target is $195 (-14.3%). The base case model target is $274.
03Is Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) stock overvalued in 2026?
ROST trades at 34.9x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ROST in 2026 are: (1) Tariff & Trade Exposure — A significant portion of Ross Stores’ merchandise is sourced from China, making the company vulnerable to U. (2) Labor Cost Risk — Rising labor costs, including minimum wage increases and a tight labor market with high turnover, can compress operating margins. (3) Inventory Supply Risk — Ross’s off‑price model relies on excess inventory from manufacturers and retailers. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Ross Stores, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ROST will report consensus revenue of $23.7B (+4.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.01 (+5.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $25.9B in revenue.
06When does Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for ROST is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Ross Stores, Inc. generate?
Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) generated $2.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 9.7%. ROST returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.7% yield) and share repurchases ($1.1B TTM).