Upside case
Bull case
$381+63.9%
ROST would need investors to value it at roughly 58x earnings — about 23x more generous than today's 36x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
47
analysts
31 bullish · 4 bearish · 47 covering ROST
Strong Buy
0
Buy
31
Hold
12
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$260
+11.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$182 – $381
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
47
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
35.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $75.3B
ROST price targets
Three scenarios for where ROST stock could go
Current
~$233
Confidence
57 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $233
Bear
$182
Base
$290
Bull
$381
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$290+24.4%
At 44x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$182-21.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 8x multiple contraction could push ROST down roughly 22% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Ross Stores, Inc.
ROST · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalApparel - RetailJanuary year-end
Ross Stores operates off-price retail chains — Ross Dress for Less and dd's DISCOUNTS — selling brand-name apparel, accessories, and home goods at 20-60% below department store prices. It makes money through retail sales at its physical stores, with Ross targeting middle-income shoppers and dd's DISCOUNTS serving more budget-conscious households. The company's competitive advantage lies in its sophisticated supply chain and opportunistic buying model that secures excess inventory and closeout merchandise from manufacturers and retailers at deep discounts.
Market Cap
$75.3B
Revenue TTM
$23.8B
Net Income TTM
$2.3B
Net Margin
9.7%
ROST Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+8.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.56/$1.53
Revenue
$5.5B/$5.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.58/$1.42
Revenue
$5.6B/$5.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.00/$1.90
Revenue
$6.6B/$6.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.02/$1.73
Revenue
$6.0B/$5.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.56/$1.53 | +2.0% | $5.5B/$5.5B | -0.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.58/$1.42 | +11.3% | $5.6B/$5.4B | +3.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.00/$1.90 | +5.3% | $6.6B/$6.4B | +3.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.02/$1.73 | +16.8% | $6.0B/$5.6B | +6.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$25.1B
+5.5% YoY
FY2
$26.0B
+3.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.26
+0.7% YoY
FY2
$7.97
+9.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.6B
FCF Margin: 11.1%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
ROST beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
ROST Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $21.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Home Accents and Bed and Bath
26.0%
+3.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Home Accents and Bed and Bath is the largest disclosed segment at 26.0% of FY 2024 revenue, up 3.7% YoY.
ROST Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fair versus peers
Fair value est. $243 — implies +4.3% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
4.3%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ROST
35.2x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+44% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
ROST
35.2x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+66% premium
vs ROST 5Y Avg P/E
Today
35.2x
vs
5Y Average
24.9x
+41% premium
Forward PE
35.7x
S&P 500
18.8x
+90%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
+119%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
35.2x
S&P 500
24.4x
+44%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+66%
5Y Avg
24.9x
+41%
PEG Ratio
0.37x
S&P 500
1.66x
-77%
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
-60%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
21.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
+39%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
+74%
5Y Avg
16.5x
+29%
Price/FCF
34.1x
S&P 500
20.7x
+65%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
+119%
5Y Avg
30.8x
+11%
Price/Sales
3.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+7%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+374%
5Y Avg
2.3x
+46%
Dividend Yield
0.70%
S&P 500
1.91%
-63%
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
-68%
5Y Avg
1.01%
-30%
| Metric | ROST | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg ROST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 35.7x | 18.8x+90% | 16.3x+119% | — |
| Trailing PE | 35.2x | 24.4x+44% | 21.2x+66% | 24.9x+41% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.37x | 1.66x-77% | 0.92x-60% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.2x | 15.2x+39% | 12.2x+74% | 16.5x+29% |
| Price/FCF | 34.1x | 20.7x+65% | 15.6x+119% | 30.8x+11% |
| Price/Sales | 3.3x | 3.1x | 0.7x+374% | 2.3x+46% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.70% | 1.91% | 2.17% | 1.01% |
ROST trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolROST Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
ROST generates $2.6B in free cash flow at a 11.1% margin — 30.6% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$23.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+11.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
28.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
12.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
9.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$7.21
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
11.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
30.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
15.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$4.6B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$618M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.2× FCF
~0.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
38.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.2%
Dividend
0.7%
Buyback
1.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.1B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.64
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
24.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
323M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageROST Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Consumer cyclical downturn
Ross Stores operates in the Apparel Retail sector, which is highly sensitive to economic cycles; a downturn could significantly impact sales.
Medium
Trade-down wave reversal
Ross Stores has benefited from consumers trading down, but a reversal in this trend could negatively affect performance.
Medium
Margin pressure
Sensitivity analysis highlights potential risks to margins, which could impact profitability if revenue growth slows or costs rise.
Lower
Valuation sensitivity
Changes in key factors like discount rates or growth assumptions could lead to valuation shifts, affecting stock performance.
High Risk
Earnings volatility
Despite strong recent performance, Ross Stores faces risks that could lead to earnings volatility, as indicated by disclosed risk factors.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ROST Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Wide economic moat
Ross Stores Inc. has a wide moat, indicating strong competitive advantages and sustainable long-term profitability.
Strong institutional ownership
Top holder Vanguard Group owns 12.2% of Ross Stores, reflecting institutional confidence in the company.
Attractive valuation metrics
ROST's trailing P/E of 29.80 and forward P/E of 26.81 suggest reasonable valuation relative to earnings growth potential.
Bullish analyst coverage
The Wealth Dynasty Report's Substack highlights a bullish thesis on Ross Stores, Inc., emphasizing its investment appeal.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ROST Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$232.80
52W Range Position
92%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$124.49
+87.0% from the low
52-Week High
$242.81
-4.1% from the high
1 Month
+10.30%
3 Month
+12.34%
YTD
+27.4%
1 Year
+81.8%
3Y CAGR
+29.5%
5Y CAGR
+15.1%
10Y CAGR
+15.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ROST vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
35.7x
vs 19.9x median
+80% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.5%
vs +5.3% median
+3% above peer median
Net Margin
9.7%
vs 5.2% median
+86% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ROS ROST Ross Stores, Inc. | $75.3B | 35.7x | +5.5% | 9.7% | Buy | +11.6% |
TJX TJX The TJX Companies, Inc. | $181.3B | 35.0x | +5.3% | 9.4% | Buy | +10.9% |
BUR BURL Burlington Stores, Inc. | $21.2B | 34.4x | +6.3% | 5.2% | Buy | +8.7% |
OLL OLLI Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. | $4.6B | 19.9x | +7.7% | 9.1% | Buy | +53.7% |
KSS KSS Kohl's Corporation | $1.9B | 12.3x | +0.2% | 1.8% | Hold | -30.4% |
M M Macy's, Inc. | $6.3B | 11.0x | +0.1% | 2.9% | Hold | -18.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ROST Dividend and Capital Return
ROST returns capital mainly through $1.1B/year in buybacks (1.5% buyback yield), with a modest 0.70% dividend — combining for 2.2% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 32 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.5%
Dividend Yield
0.70%
Payout Ratio
24.6%
How ROST Splits Its Return
Div 0.70%
Buyback 1.5%
Dividend 0.70%Buybacks 1.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.64
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
32Y
3Y Div CAGR
9.3%
5Y Div CAGR
41.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.1B
Estimated Shares Retired
5M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
323M
At 1.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.89 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.62 | +10.2% | 1.9% | 2.7% |
| 2024 | $1.47 | +9.7% | 2.3% | 3.3% |
| 2023 | $1.34 | +8.1% | 2.1% | 3.1% |
| 2022 | $1.24 | +8.8% | 2.4% | 3.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsROST Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 47 analysts covering the stock, 31 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $260, implying +11.6% from the current price of $233. The bear case scenario is $182 and the bull case is $381.
02What is the ROST stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ROST is $260 based on 47 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $290 (+24.6% from today), and the low-end target is $230 (-1.2%). The base case model target is $290.
03Is Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) stock overvalued in 2026?
ROST trades at 35.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fair versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ROST in 2026 are: (1) Consumer cyclical downturn — Ross Stores operates in the Apparel Retail sector, which is highly sensitive to economic cycles; a downturn could significantly impact sales. (2) Earnings volatility — Despite strong recent performance, Ross Stores faces risks that could lead to earnings volatility, as indicated by disclosed risk factors. (3) Trade-down wave reversal — Ross Stores has benefited from consumers trading down, but a reversal in this trend could negatively affect performance. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Ross Stores, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ROST will report consensus revenue of $25.1B (+5.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.26 (+0.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $26.0B in revenue.
06When does Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for ROST is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Ross Stores, Inc. generate?
Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) generated $2.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 11.1%. ROST returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.7% yield) and share repurchases ($1.1B TTM).