Upside case
Bull case
$249+52.1%
TJX would need investors to value it at roughly 53x earnings — about 18x more generous than today's 35x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
53
analysts
47 bullish · 1 bearish · 53 covering TJX
Strong Buy
1
Buy
46
Hold
5
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$182
+10.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$119 – $249
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
53
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
35.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $181.3B
TJX price targets
Three scenarios for where TJX stock could go
Current
~$164
Confidence
53 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $164
Bear
$119
Base
$189
Bull
$249
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$189+15.4%
At 40x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$119-27.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 10x multiple contraction could push TJX down roughly 27% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
The TJX Companies, Inc.
TJX · NYSEConsumer CyclicalApparel - RetailJanuary year-end
TJX Companies is an off-price retailer that sells brand-name apparel, home goods, and accessories at discounted prices through its T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, and other banners. It generates revenue primarily from retail store sales — with its Marmaxx segment (T.J. Maxx and Marshalls) contributing roughly 70% of total sales — complemented by e-commerce operations. The company's key advantage is its sophisticated buying model that leverages opportunistic purchasing from thousands of vendors, allowing it to offer constantly changing merchandise at 20-60% below regular retail prices.
Market Cap
$181.3B
Revenue TTM
$61.6B
Net Income TTM
$5.8B
Net Margin
9.4%
TJX Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.10/$1.01
Revenue
$14.4B/$14.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.28/$1.23
Revenue
$15.1B/$14.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.43/$1.39
Revenue
$17.7B/$17.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.19/$1.02
Revenue
$14.3B/$14.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.10/$1.01 | +8.9% | $14.4B/$14.1B | +1.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.28/$1.23 | +4.1% | $15.1B/$14.9B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.43/$1.39 | +2.9% | $17.7B/$17.4B | +2.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.19/$1.02 | +16.7% | $14.3B/$14.0B | +2.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$64.9B
+5.3% YoY
FY2
$66.9B
+3.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.21
+0.7% YoY
FY2
$5.48
+5.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$5.5B
FCF Margin: 8.9%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
TJX beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
TJX Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2026
Total disclosed revenue $60.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Marmaxx
60.6%
+5.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
TJX International
58.7%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Marmaxx is the largest disclosed segment at 60.6% of FY 2026 revenue, up 5.7% YoY.
TJX International is the largest reported region at 58.7%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
TJX Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fair versus peers
Fair value est. $164 — implies +0.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
0.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TJX
33.6x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+37% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
TJX
33.6x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+59% premium
vs TJX 5Y Avg P/E
Today
33.6x
vs
5Y Average
27.8x
+21% premium
Forward PE
35.0x
S&P 500
18.8x
+86%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
+114%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
33.6x
S&P 500
24.4x
+37%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+59%
5Y Avg
27.8x
+21%
PEG Ratio
0.26x
S&P 500
1.66x
-85%
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
-72%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
22.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
+47%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
+84%
5Y Avg
18.6x
+20%
Price/FCF
36.9x
S&P 500
20.7x
+78%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
+137%
5Y Avg
34.8x
+6%
Price/Sales
3.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-3%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+330%
5Y Avg
2.2x
+36%
Dividend Yield
1.00%
S&P 500
1.91%
-48%
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
-54%
5Y Avg
1.28%
-22%
| Metric | TJX | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg TJX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 35.0x | 18.8x+86% | 16.3x+114% | — |
| Trailing PE | 33.6x | 24.4x+37% | 21.2x+59% | 27.8x+21% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.26x | 1.66x-85% | 0.92x-72% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.4x | 15.2x+47% | 12.2x+84% | 18.6x+20% |
| Price/FCF | 36.9x | 20.7x+78% | 15.6x+137% | 34.8x |
| Price/Sales | 3.0x | 3.1x | 0.7x+330% | 2.2x+36% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.00% | 1.91% | 2.17% | 1.28% |
TJX trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTJX Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
TJX generates $5.5B in free cash flow at a 8.9% margin — 32.3% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$61.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+8.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
31.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
12.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
9.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.17
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$5.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
8.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
32.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
16.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$6.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$7.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.3× FCF
~1.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
59.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.4%
Dividend
1.0%
Buyback
1.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.5B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.64
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
33.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.1B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTJX Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Macro & Political Risks
TJX Companies disclosed 29 risk factors, with the most risks in the 'Macro & Political' category, indicating significant exposure to broader economic and political uncertainties.
Medium
Investor Sentiment Volatility
Despite a positive earnings surprise, TJX's stock price declined, highlighting complex factors influencing investor sentiment and potential disconnect between performance and market reaction.
Medium
Competitive Pricing Pressure
TJX offers merchandise at 20%-60% below full-price retailers, but this model may face pressure from competitors or shifts in consumer spending habits.
Lower
Credit Card Dependency
Discounts and promotions are tied to TJX Rewards credit card usage, which may limit customer flexibility and introduce reliance on credit card partnerships.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TJX Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Strong value proposition
TJX offers high-quality, fashionable, brand name merchandise at 20%-60% below full-price retailers, appealing to a wide customer demographic.
Resilient business model
TJX is considered one of the most resilient ways to own the retail sector, with strong performance even in challenging economic conditions.
Robust financial performance
TJX reported strong Q3 results with sales reaching $15.12 billion and net income rising to $1.44 billion, while raising full-year guidance.
Growing merchandise availability
TJX attributed its performance to robust merchandise availability and a focus on value, ensuring consistent customer appeal.
Dividend reliability
TJX affirmed a quarterly dividend of $0.4800 per share, demonstrating its commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Strategic product expansion
TJX is expanding its product offerings, such as stocking trending functional wellness beverages, to attract diverse customer interests.
Fortune 500 recognition
TJX ranked No. 80 in the 2024 Fortune 500 list, highlighting its scale and revenue strength among U.S. corporations.
Mid-single digit comp growth
The bull case strengthens if comparable sales growth stays in the mid-single digits while profit margins expand toward 13%.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TJX Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$163.82
52W Range Position
88%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$119.84
+36.7% from the low
52-Week High
$170.00
-3.6% from the high
1 Month
+9.03%
3 Month
+7.16%
YTD
+6.2%
1 Year
+33.7%
3Y CAGR
+26.8%
5Y CAGR
+20.9%
10Y CAGR
+15.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TJX vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
35.0x
vs 19.9x median
+76% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.3%
vs +5.5% median
-3% below peer median
Net Margin
9.4%
vs 5.2% median
+80% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TJX TJX The TJX Companies, Inc. | $181.3B | 35.0x | +5.3% | 9.4% | Buy | +10.9% |
ROS ROST Ross Stores, Inc. | $75.3B | 35.7x | +5.5% | 9.7% | Buy | +11.6% |
BUR BURL Burlington Stores, Inc. | $21.2B | 34.4x | +6.3% | 5.2% | Buy | +8.7% |
OLL OLLI Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. | $4.6B | 19.9x | +7.7% | 9.1% | Buy | +53.7% |
M M Macy's, Inc. | $6.3B | 11.0x | +0.1% | 2.9% | Hold | -18.8% |
KSS KSS Kohl's Corporation | $1.9B | 12.3x | +0.2% | 1.8% | Hold | -30.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TJX Dividend and Capital Return
TJX returns 2.4% annually — 1.00% through dividends and 1.4% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.4%
Dividend Yield
1.00%
Payout Ratio
33.5%
How TJX Splits Its Return
Div 1.00%
Buyback 1.4%
Dividend 1.00%Buybacks 1.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.64
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
13.0%
5Y Div CAGR
48.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.5B
Estimated Shares Retired
15M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.1B
At 1.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.39 | — | 1.5% | 2.6% |
| 2025 | $1.65 | +13.2% | 1.8% | 2.9% |
| 2024 | $1.46 | +12.8% | 2.3% | 3.6% |
| 2023 | $1.29 | +12.9% | 2.3% | 3.7% |
| 2022 | $1.14 | +10.1% | 2.5% | 3.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsTJX Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 53 analysts covering the stock, 47 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $182, implying +10.9% from the current price of $164. The bear case scenario is $119 and the bull case is $249.
02What is the TJX stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TJX is $182 based on 53 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $197 (+20.3% from today), and the low-end target is $160 (-2.3%). The base case model target is $189.
03Is The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) stock overvalued in 2026?
TJX trades at 35.0x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fair versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TJX in 2026 are: (1) Macro & Political Risks — TJX Companies disclosed 29 risk factors, with the most risks in the 'Macro & Political' category, indicating significant exposure to broader economic and political uncertainties. (2) Investor Sentiment Volatility — Despite a positive earnings surprise, TJX's stock price declined, highlighting complex factors influencing investor sentiment and potential disconnect between performance and market reaction. (3) Competitive Pricing Pressure — TJX offers merchandise at 20%-60% below full-price retailers, but this model may face pressure from competitors or shifts in consumer spending habits. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is The TJX Companies, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TJX will report consensus revenue of $64.9B (+5.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.21 (+0.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $66.9B in revenue.
06When does The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for TJX is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does The TJX Companies, Inc. generate?
The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) generated $5.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 8.9%. TJX returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.0% yield) and share repurchases ($2.5B TTM).