Upside case
Bull case
$428+35.2%
BURL would need investors to value it at roughly 44x earnings — about 11x more generous than today's 32x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
35
analysts
34 bullish · 0 bearish · 35 covering BURL
Strong Buy
0
Buy
34
Hold
1
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$332
+4.8% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $428
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
35
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
32.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $20.0B
BURL price targets
Three scenarios for where BURL stock could go
Current
~$317
Confidence
60 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $317
Base
$393
Bull
$428
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$393+24.2%
At 40x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Burlington Stores, Inc.
BURL · NYSEConsumer CyclicalApparel - RetailJanuary year-end
Burlington Stores is an off-price retailer offering branded apparel, home goods, and accessories at discounted prices. It generates revenue primarily through retail store sales — with merchandise sourced opportunistically from manufacturers' excess inventory and closeouts — and operates on a low-cost model with minimal marketing spend. The company's competitive advantage lies in its opportunistic buying strategy that secures branded merchandise at deep discounts, allowing it to offer compelling value while maintaining healthy margins.
Market Cap
$20.0B
Revenue TTM
$11.6B
Net Income TTM
$610M
Net Margin
5.3%
BURL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+12.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.60/$1.43
Revenue
$2.5B/$2.5B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.59/$1.28
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.6B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.80/$1.64
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$4.89/$4.75
Revenue
$3.6B/$3.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.60/$1.43 | +11.9% | $2.5B/$2.5B | -0.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.59/$1.28 | +24.2% | $2.7B/$2.6B | +2.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.80/$1.64 | +9.8% | $2.7B/$2.7B | -0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.89/$4.75 | +2.9% | $3.6B/$3.6B | +1.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$12.4B
+7.1% YoY
FY2
$13.8B
+11.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$10.39
+9.3% YoY
FY2
$11.81
+13.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$232M
FCF Margin: 2.0%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
BURL beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
BURL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $5M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Private Label Credit Card
100.0%
+2.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Private Label Credit Card is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2024 revenue, up 2.0% YoY.
BURL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $333 — implies +4.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
4.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BURL
33.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+32% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
BURL
33.3x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+70% premium
vs BURL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
33.3x
vs
5Y Average
41.9x
20% discount
Forward PE
32.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
+70%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
+113%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
33.3x
S&P 500
25.2x
+32%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+70%
5Y Avg
41.9x
-20%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
18.0x
S&P 500
15.3x
+18%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
+58%
5Y Avg
17.1x
+5%
Price/FCF
116.8x
S&P 500
21.3x
+448%
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
+679%
5Y Avg
70.9x
+65%
Price/Sales
1.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
-45%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+144%
5Y Avg
1.6x
+7%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | BURL | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg BURL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 32.4x | 19.1x+70% | 15.2x+113% | — |
| Trailing PE | 33.3x | 25.2x+32% | 19.6x+70% | 41.9x-20% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.95x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.0x | 15.3x+18% | 11.4x+58% | 17.1x |
| Price/FCF | 116.8x | 21.3x+448% | 15.0x+679% | 70.9x+65% |
| Price/Sales | 1.7x | 3.1x-45% | 0.7x+144% | 1.6x |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 2.15% | — |
BURL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBURL Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
BURL 10.3% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 1.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$11.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+8.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
41.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
8.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
5.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.51
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$232M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
2.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
10.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
11.9× FCF
~11.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
29.7%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (10.3%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.4%
Dividend
—
Buyback
1.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$278M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
64M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageBURL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Intense Competition
Burlington operates in a highly competitive retail environment, facing rivals such as department stores, other off-price retailers, specialty stores, online retailers, and discount stores. Competitors may employ aggressive pricing strategies and expand their merchandise offerings, which could significantly impact Burlington's market share and profitability.
High Risk
Macroeconomic Factors
An uncertain macroeconomic climate and geopolitical shifts can lead to a slowdown in consumer spending. Factors such as higher unemployment, rising inflation, and changes in consumer confidence pose significant risks, particularly in the latter half of the year when consumer spending typically peaks.
High Risk
Dependence on Brick-and-Mortar Retail
Burlington's business is exclusively focused on physical stores, making it vulnerable as consumer preferences shift towards online shopping. This reliance can hinder growth and profitability as competitors leverage technology more effectively to capture market share.
Medium
Seasonal Variability
Burlington experiences seasonal fluctuations in sales and operating income, with stronger performance typically in the second half of the year. This seasonality necessitates careful inventory management to avoid overstocking and markdowns, exposing the company to risks from changes in consumer spending during peak periods.
Medium
Store Expansion Risks
While aggressive store expansion is a growth strategy for Burlington, it carries execution risks, including potential cannibalization of sales from existing locations. This could negatively affect comparable store sales and overall profitability.
Medium
Tariffs and Weather
Tariffs can negatively impact Burlington's home business, requiring strategic pivots in planning and potentially leaving gaps in product assortments. Additionally, unseasonable weather can adversely affect sales in key categories such as outerwear and home goods.
Lower
Valuation Risk
Burlington's current Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is above the industry average, indicating potential valuation risk if market expectations cool. While some analyses suggest the stock is undervalued, this discrepancy could lead to volatility.
Lower
Talent Competition
Intense competition for skilled talent in technology, engineering, and management could slow Burlington's innovation and execution capabilities. This talent shortage may hinder the company's ability to adapt to changing market conditions.
Lower
Supply Chain Disruptions
Elevated supply chain costs and potential inventory issues from disruptions, such as those related to geopolitical events, can impact Burlington's profitability. These disruptions may lead to increased operational costs and reduced product availability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BURL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Robust Financial Performance
Burlington Stores has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 4% increase in comparable store sales and an 11% rise in total sales for Q4 2025, exceeding expectations. The company reported an 11% year-over-year increase in total sales for Q4, which is well above management's guidance.
Margin Expansion
Margin expansion is increasingly structural, driven by improvements in freight costs and merchandise elevation. Gross margins improved to 43.7% in Q4, supported by stronger merchandise margins and lower freight costs.
Underlying Demand
Underlying demand for Burlington's products has exceeded reported sales, as the company has prioritized margin protection over capturing all available low-margin categories. This strategic focus indicates a strong consumer interest in their offerings.
Strategic Initiatives and Outlook
Burlington's focus on differentiated merchandise and expansion plans suggest a positive outlook. Management has guided for total sales growth of 8% to 10% and comparable store sales growth of 1% to 3% for the full year 2026.
Off-Price Model Resilience
The company's off-price model is considered resilient, effectively translating traffic and inventory execution into sustained earnings power. This model positions Burlington well to navigate market fluctuations.
Market Share Gains
A two-year comparable store sales stack of 10% indicates that Burlington is successfully gaining market share. This growth reflects the company's ability to attract and retain customers in a competitive retail environment.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BURL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$316.73
52W Range Position
74%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$218.52
+44.9% from the low
52-Week High
$351.85
-10.0% from the high
1 Month
-6.28%
3 Month
+1.64%
YTD
+6.1%
1 Year
+33.6%
3Y CAGR
+20.2%
5Y CAGR
-0.5%
10Y CAGR
+19.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BURL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
32.4x
vs 33.2x median
-2% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.1%
vs +4.7% median
+53% above peer median
Net Margin
5.3%
vs 9.1% median
-42% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BUR BURL Burlington Stores, Inc. | $20.0B | 32.4x | +7.1% | 5.3% | Buy | +4.8% |
TJX TJX The TJX Companies, Inc. | $172.5B | 33.2x | +4.7% | 9.1% | Buy | +10.6% |
ROS ROST Ross Stores, Inc. | $75.3B | 35.1x | +4.0% | 9.4% | Buy | -6.6% |
OLL OLLI Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. | $5.1B | 21.6x | +10.2% | 9.1% | Buy | +67.1% |
KSS KSS Kohl's Corporation | $1.6B | 10.3x | -3.8% | 1.7% | Hold | +24.9% |
FIV FIVE Five Below, Inc. | $12.9B | 36.7x | +9.8% | 7.5% | Buy | -6.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
BURL Dividend and Capital Return
BURL returns 1.4% annually — null% through dividends and 1.4% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
1.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.4%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$278M
Estimated Shares Retired
879.1K
Approx. Share Reduction
1.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
64M
At 1.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsBURL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 35 analysts covering the stock, 34 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 1 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $332, implying +4.8% from the current price of $317.
02What is the BURL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for BURL is $332 based on 35 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $375 (+18.4% from today), and the low-end target is $270 (-14.8%). The base case model target is $393.
03Is Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) stock overvalued in 2026?
BURL trades at 32.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BURL in 2026 are: (1) Intense Competition — Burlington operates in a highly competitive retail environment, facing rivals such as department stores, other off-price retailers, specialty stores, online retailers, and discount stores. (2) Macroeconomic Factors — An uncertain macroeconomic climate and geopolitical shifts can lead to a slowdown in consumer spending. (3) Dependence on Brick-and-Mortar Retail — Burlington's business is exclusively focused on physical stores, making it vulnerable as consumer preferences shift towards online shopping. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Burlington Stores, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BURL will report consensus revenue of $12.4B (+7.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $10.39 (+9.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $13.8B in revenue.
06When does Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for BURL is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Burlington Stores, Inc. generate?
Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) generated $232M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 2.0%. BURL returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($278M TTM).