Upside case
Bull case
$510+51.4%
BURL would need investors to value it at roughly 52x earnings — about 18x more generous than today's 34x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
35
analysts
33 bullish · 0 bearish · 35 covering BURL
Strong Buy
0
Buy
33
Hold
2
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$366
+8.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$244 – $510
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
35
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
34.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $21.2B
BURL price targets
Three scenarios for where BURL stock could go
Current
~$337
Confidence
59 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $337
Bear
$244
Base
$387
Bull
$510
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$387+14.9%
At 40x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$244-27.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 10x multiple contraction could push BURL down roughly 28% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Burlington Stores, Inc.
BURL · NYSEConsumer CyclicalApparel - RetailJanuary year-end
Burlington Stores is an off-price retailer offering branded apparel, home goods, and accessories at discounted prices. It generates revenue primarily through retail store sales — with merchandise sourced opportunistically from manufacturers' excess inventory and closeouts — and operates on a low-cost model with minimal marketing spend. The company's competitive advantage lies in its opportunistic buying strategy that secures branded merchandise at deep discounts, allowing it to offer compelling value while maintaining healthy margins.
Market Cap
$21.2B
Revenue TTM
$11.9B
Net Income TTM
$624M
Net Margin
5.2%
BURL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+14.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.59/$1.28
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.6B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.80/$1.64
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$4.89/$4.75
Revenue
$3.6B/$3.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.01/$1.80
Revenue
$2.9B/$2.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.59/$1.28 | +24.2% | $2.7B/$2.6B | +2.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.80/$1.64 | +9.8% | $2.7B/$2.7B | -0.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.89/$4.75 | +2.9% | $3.6B/$3.6B | +1.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.01/$1.80 | +11.7% | $2.9B/$2.8B | +1.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$12.7B
+6.3% YoY
FY2
$13.2B
+4.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$10.09
+3.7% YoY
FY2
$10.88
+7.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$437M
FCF Margin: 3.7%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
BURL beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
BURL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $6M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Private Label Credit Card
100.0%
+8.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Private Label Credit Card is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 8.1% YoY.
BURL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $286 — implies -15.0% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
15.0%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BURL
35.4x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+45% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
BURL
35.4x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+67% premium
vs BURL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
35.4x
vs
5Y Average
41.9x
15% discount
Forward PE
34.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
+83%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
+111%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
35.4x
S&P 500
24.4x
+45%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+67%
5Y Avg
41.9x
-15%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
20.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
+35%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
+69%
5Y Avg
21.5x
-4%
Price/FCF
123.6x
S&P 500
20.7x
+497%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
+694%
5Y Avg
70.9x
+74%
Price/Sales
1.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-41%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+163%
5Y Avg
1.6x
+13%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | BURL | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg BURL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 34.4x | 18.8x+83% | 16.3x+111% | — |
| Trailing PE | 35.4x | 24.4x+45% | 21.2x+67% | 41.9x-15% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.6x | 15.2x+35% | 12.2x+69% | 21.5x |
| Price/FCF | 123.6x | 20.7x+497% | 15.6x+694% | 70.9x+74% |
| Price/Sales | 1.8x | 3.1x-41% | 0.7x+163% | 1.6x+13% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 2.17% | — |
BURL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBURL Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
BURL 10.3% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 1.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$11.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+10.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
44.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
7.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
5.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.73
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$437M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
3.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
10.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$4.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
10.9× FCF
~10.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
37.7%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (10.3%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.3%
Dividend
—
Buyback
1.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$278M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
63M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageBURL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Valuation de-rating
Burlington's stock may face pressure due to stretched valuation and signs of technical exhaustion.
High Risk
Financial leverage
High financial leverage poses a risk to Burlington's financial stability and growth plans.
Medium
Competitive pressure
The off-price retail sector is highly competitive, with Burlington needing to maintain its 'treasure-hunt' appeal to sustain growth.
Medium
Expansion risks
Burlington's ambitious target of 2,000 stores introduces execution risks and potential overextension.
Lower
Economic sensitivity
As a discount retailer, Burlington may be less sensitive to economic downturns, but consumer spending shifts could still impact performance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BURL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong financial performance
Burlington Stores reported robust fourth-quarter sales of US$3,642.5 million and net income of US$310.39 million, with diluted EPS rising to US$4.84, alongside full-year revenue of US$11.57 billion and EPS of US$9.51.
Aggressive expansion plans
The company outlined record expansion plans for 110 new locations in 2026, including an 80,000-square-foot flagship in Manhattan's Chelsea, while modernizing existing stores.
Revenue growth guidance
Management provided guidance calling for high single-digit to low double-digit sales growth, indicating confidence in future performance.
Off-price model appeal
Burlington's off-price model continues to attract value-conscious shoppers, supported by its ability to offer high-quality, brand-name products at unbeatable prices.
Margin resilience
The company's ability to maintain margins despite higher costs is a key factor in its investment thesis, as highlighted by recent financial performance.
New store openings
The planned opening of 110 net new stores is expected to be a significant catalyst for growth, driving both revenue and market presence.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BURL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$336.95
52W Range Position
89%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$218.52
+54.2% from the low
52-Week High
$351.85
-4.2% from the high
1 Month
+16.04%
3 Month
+12.16%
YTD
+12.9%
1 Year
+48.2%
3Y CAGR
+30.7%
5Y CAGR
+2.2%
10Y CAGR
+18.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BURL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
34.4x
vs 30.4x median
+13% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.3%
vs +5.5% median
+14% above peer median
Net Margin
5.2%
vs 9.1% median
-43% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BUR BURL Burlington Stores, Inc. | $21.2B | 34.4x | +6.3% | 5.2% | Buy | +8.7% |
TJX TJX The TJX Companies, Inc. | $181.3B | 35.0x | +5.3% | 9.4% | Buy | +10.9% |
ROS ROST Ross Stores, Inc. | $75.3B | 35.7x | +5.5% | 9.7% | Buy | +11.6% |
OLL OLLI Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. | $4.6B | 19.9x | +7.7% | 9.1% | Buy | +53.7% |
KSS KSS Kohl's Corporation | $1.9B | 12.3x | +0.2% | 1.8% | Hold | -30.4% |
FIV FIVE Five Below, Inc. | $10.7B | 30.4x | +6.0% | 8.7% | Buy | +22.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
BURL Dividend and Capital Return
BURL returns 1.3% annually — null% through dividends and 1.3% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
1.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.3%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$278M
Estimated Shares Retired
826.3K
Approx. Share Reduction
1.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
63M
At 1.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsBURL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 35 analysts covering the stock, 33 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 2 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $366, implying +8.7% from the current price of $337. The bear case scenario is $244 and the bull case is $510.
02What is the BURL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for BURL is $366 based on 35 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $435 (+29.1% from today), and the low-end target is $310 (-8.0%). The base case model target is $387.
03Is Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) stock overvalued in 2026?
BURL trades at 34.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BURL in 2026 are: (1) Valuation de-rating — Burlington's stock may face pressure due to stretched valuation and signs of technical exhaustion. (2) Financial leverage — High financial leverage poses a risk to Burlington's financial stability and growth plans. (3) Competitive pressure — The off-price retail sector is highly competitive, with Burlington needing to maintain its 'treasure-hunt' appeal to sustain growth. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Burlington Stores, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BURL will report consensus revenue of $12.7B (+6.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $10.09 (+3.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $13.2B in revenue.
06When does Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for BURL is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Burlington Stores, Inc. generate?
Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) generated $437M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 3.7%. BURL returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($278M TTM).