Upside case
Bull case
$366+61.4%
RRX would need investors to value it at roughly 34x earnings — about 13x more generous than today's 21x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Regal Rexnord Corporation (RRX) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
22
analysts
14 bullish · 0 bearish · 22 covering RRX
Strong Buy
0
Buy
14
Hold
8
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$245
+8.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$175 – $366
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
22
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
21.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $15.1B
RRX price targets
Three scenarios for where RRX stock could go
Current
~$227
Confidence
43 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $227
Bear
$175
Base
$278
Bull
$366
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$278+22.5%
At 26x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$175-22.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 5x multiple contraction could push RRX down roughly 23% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Regal Rexnord Corporation
RRX · NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachineryDecember year-end
Regal Rexnord is a diversified industrial manufacturer that designs and produces critical motion control and power transmission components for commercial, industrial, and climate applications. It generates revenue through four main segments — Commercial Systems (~30%), Industrial Systems (~25%), Climate Solutions (~25%), and Motion Control Solutions (~20%) — selling motors, controls, blowers, and specialized electrical systems. The company's competitive advantage lies in its broad product portfolio that serves diverse end markets, creating cross-selling opportunities and reducing cyclical exposure.
Market Cap
$15.1B
Revenue TTM
$6.0B
Net Income TTM
$287M
Net Margin
4.8%
RRX Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+1.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.48/$2.42
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.51/$2.56
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.51/$2.47
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.17/$2.11
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.48/$2.42 | +2.5% | $1.5B/$1.5B | +0.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.51/$2.56 | -2.0% | $1.5B/$1.5B | +0.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.51/$2.47 | +1.6% | $1.5B/$1.5B | -1.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.17/$2.11 | +2.8% | $1.5B/$1.4B | +3.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$6.3B
+5.8% YoY
FY2
$6.8B
+6.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.50
+28.2% YoY
FY2
$6.17
+12.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$805M
FCF Margin: 13.4%
Next Earnings
August 4, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.59
Expected Revenue
$1.6B
RRX beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
RRX Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $5.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Industrial Powertrain Solutions
44.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North America
70.1%
-0.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Industrial Powertrain Solutions is the largest disclosed segment at 44.0% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
North America is the largest reported region at 70.1%, down 0.5% YoY.
RRX Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $328 — implies +44.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
44.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
RRX
53.7x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+120% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
RRX
53.7x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
+110% premium
vs RRX 5Y Avg P/E
Today
53.7x
vs
5Y Average
34.5x
+56% premium
Forward PE
21.3x
S&P 500
18.8x
+13%
Industrials
21.2x
+1%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
53.7x
S&P 500
24.4x
+120%
Industrials
25.6x
+110%
5Y Avg
34.5x
+56%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Industrials
1.65x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
16.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
+9%
Industrials
13.9x
+19%
5Y Avg
12.9x
+28%
Price/FCF
16.9x
S&P 500
20.7x
-18%
Industrials
20.0x
-16%
5Y Avg
19.4x
-13%
Price/Sales
2.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
-18%
Industrials
1.6x
+63%
5Y Avg
1.7x
+49%
Dividend Yield
0.62%
S&P 500
1.91%
-68%
Industrials
1.21%
-49%
5Y Avg
1.62%
-62%
| Metric | RRX | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg RRX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 21.3x | 18.8x+13% | 21.2x | — |
| Trailing PE | 53.7x | 24.4x+120% | 25.6x+110% | 34.5x+56% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.65x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.6x | 15.2x | 13.9x+19% | 12.9x+28% |
| Price/FCF | 16.9x | 20.7x-18% | 20.0x-16% | 19.4x-13% |
| Price/Sales | 2.5x | 3.1x-18% | 1.6x+63% | 1.7x+49% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.62% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 1.62% |
RRX trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolRRX Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
RRX generates $805M in free cash flow at a 13.4% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$6.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+1.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
37.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
11.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
4.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.29
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$805M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
13.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$522M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$4.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
5.6× FCF
~5.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
4.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.6%
Dividend
0.6%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.40
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
33.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
67M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageRRX Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Free Cash Flow Decline
Significant decline in free cash flow in fiscal Q1 2026 has negatively impacted investor confidence.
Medium
Leadership Transition
Recent leadership changes may create uncertainty during the transition period, especially with key executives departing.
Medium
Integration Challenges
Investor unease persists over the company's ability to successfully integrate acquired businesses while maintaining performance.
High Risk
Execution Risk
Heightened sensitivity to execution risk has contributed to stock price volatility after a strong run.
Lower
Mixed Quarterly Results
Mixed quarterly results have raised concerns about consistent financial performance despite some positive metrics.
Medium
Market Sentiment
Recent stock decline suggests negative market sentiment, possibly due to broader sector trends rather than company-specific issues.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why RRX Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Leadership transition stability
The appointment of Mark Klossner as EVP & President of Industrial Powertrain Solutions, with Jerry Morton staying until 2026 to support the transition, ensures continuity during business integration.
Diversified market leadership
Regal Rexnord is a leader in powertrain and automation solutions, serving key markets like industrial, HVAC, aerospace, food & beverage, and automation.
Strong financial performance
Q4 2025 sales rose to $1,523.2 million with net income of $63.5 million, and full-year 2025 net income improved to $279.5 million, reflecting solid operational execution.
Positive earnings guidance
The company issued full-year 2026 GAAP diluted EPS guidance of $5.29 to $6.09, signaling management's confidence in future growth.
Automation and robotics exposure
Regal Rexnord's automation transformation and robotics exposure are highlighted as key drivers for potential re-rating and stock appreciation.
Stock appreciation momentum
The stock has appreciated by 12% since coverage began, with the investment thesis remaining intact, indicating sustained investor confidence.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
RRX Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$226.78
52W Range Position
91%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$127.96
+77.2% from the low
52-Week High
$236.34
-4.0% from the high
1 Month
+20.49%
3 Month
+22.42%
YTD
+55.2%
1 Year
+62.4%
3Y CAGR
+14.1%
5Y CAGR
+12.5%
10Y CAGR
+14.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
RRX vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
21.3x
vs 30.5x median
-30% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.8%
vs +6.6% median
-12% below peer median
Net Margin
4.8%
vs 12.4% median
-61% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RRX RRX Regal Rexnord Corporation | $15.1B | 21.3x | +5.8% | 4.8% | Buy | +8.0% |
AME AME AMETEK, Inc. | $54.4B | 29.2x | +6.6% | 20.1% | Buy | +5.3% |
ROK ROK Rockwell Automation, Inc. | $53.2B | 36.6x | +1.5% | 12.4% | Hold | +0.3% |
PH PH Parker-Hannifin Corporation | $120.3B | 30.5x | +3.1% | 16.6% | Buy | +9.9% |
ITT ITT ITT Inc. | $17.6B | 25.1x | +10.0% | 10.8% | Buy | +23.6% |
GNR GNRC Generac Holdings Inc. | $16.4B | 31.2x | +8.1% | 4.4% | Buy | +1.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
RRX Dividend and Capital Return
RRX returns 0.6% total yield, led by a 0.62% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
0.62%
Payout Ratio
33.3%
How RRX Splits Its Return
Div 0.62%
Dividend 0.62%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.40
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.5%
5Y Div CAGR
3.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
67M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.70 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.40 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% |
| 2024 | $1.40 | 0.0% | 0.5% | 1.4% |
| 2023 | $1.40 | +1.4% | 0.0% | 0.9% |
| 2022 | $1.38 | -84.0% | 3.0% | 4.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsRRX Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Regal Rexnord Corporation (RRX) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Regal Rexnord Corporation (RRX) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 22 analysts covering the stock, 14 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $245, implying +8.0% from the current price of $227. The bear case scenario is $175 and the bull case is $366.
02What is the RRX stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for RRX is $245 based on 22 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $265 (+16.9% from today), and the low-end target is $225 (-0.8%). The base case model target is $278.
03Is Regal Rexnord Corporation (RRX) stock overvalued in 2026?
RRX trades at 21.3x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Regal Rexnord Corporation (RRX) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for RRX in 2026 are: (1) Free Cash Flow Decline — Significant decline in free cash flow in fiscal Q1 2026 has negatively impacted investor confidence. (2) Execution Risk — Heightened sensitivity to execution risk has contributed to stock price volatility after a strong run. (3) Leadership Transition — Recent leadership changes may create uncertainty during the transition period, especially with key executives departing. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Regal Rexnord Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates RRX will report consensus revenue of $6.3B (+5.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.50 (+28.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $6.8B in revenue.
06When does Regal Rexnord Corporation (RRX) report its next earnings?
Regal Rexnord Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-04. Consensus expects EPS of $2.59 and revenue of $1.6B. Over recent quarters, RRX has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Regal Rexnord Corporation generate?
Regal Rexnord Corporation (RRX) generated $805M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 13.4%. RRX returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.6% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).