Upside case
Bull case
$142+134.9%
RYAAY would need investors to value it at roughly 37x earnings — about 21x more generous than today's 16x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 12, 2026
Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
17
analysts
11 bullish · 2 bearish · 17 covering RYAAY
Strong Buy
1
Buy
10
Hold
4
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$79
+30.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$61 – $142
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
17
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
15.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $31.5B
RYAAY price targets
Three scenarios for where RYAAY stock could go
Current
~$60
Confidence
36 / 100
Updated
Jun 12, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $60
Bear
$61
Base
$88
Bull
$142
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$88+45.4%
At 23x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$61+1.8%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push RYAAY down roughly 2% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Ryanair Holdings plc
RYAAY · NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesMarch year-end
Ryanair is Europe's largest low-cost airline, operating short-haul flights across the continent with an ultra-low-fare model. It generates revenue primarily from ticket sales — supplemented by substantial ancillary income from baggage fees, seat selection, priority boarding, and in-flight sales — which together account for roughly 30% of total revenue. Its key competitive advantage is an industry-leading cost structure driven by high aircraft utilization, secondary airports, and a single aircraft type — the Boeing 737 — which enables consistently lower fares than competitors.
Market Cap
$31.5B
Revenue TTM
$15.6B
Net Income TTM
$2.2B
Net Margin
13.9%
RYAAY Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+64.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$4.51/$1.21
Revenue
$5.1B/$4.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.76/$3.62
Revenue
$6.4B/$3.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.26/$0.15
Revenue
$3.8B/$3.7B
Q2 2026
EPS
$-0.86/$-0.95
Revenue
$2.9B/$3.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $4.51/$1.21 | +272.7% | $5.1B/$4.2B | +22.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.76/$3.62 | +3.9% | $6.4B/$3.1B | +105.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.26/$0.15 | +73.3% | $3.8B/$3.7B | +3.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $-0.86/$-0.95 | +9.5% | $2.9B/$3.1B | -5.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$18.5B
+19.0% YoY
FY2
$22.2B
+19.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.30
+27.6% YoY
FY2
$6.89
+30.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.8B
FCF Margin: 11.7%
Next Earnings
July 20, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.45
Expected Revenue
$5.2B
RYAAY beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
RYAAY Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $85 — implies +41.7% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
41.7%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
RYAAY
12.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
49% discount
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
RYAAY
12.7x
vs
Industrials
25.8x
51% discount
vs RYAAY 5Y Avg P/E
Today
12.7x
vs
5Y Average
13.5x
6% discount
Forward PE
15.8x
S&P 500
18.9x
-17%
Industrials
21.1x
-25%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
12.7x
S&P 500
25.1x
-49%
Industrials
25.8x
-51%
5Y Avg
13.5x
-6%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.69x
—
Industrials
1.58x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
6.7x
S&P 500
15.3x
-56%
Industrials
13.7x
-51%
5Y Avg
12.7x
-47%
Price/FCF
15.0x
S&P 500
21.3x
-30%
Industrials
20.3x
-26%
5Y Avg
18.3x
-18%
Price/Sales
1.7x
S&P 500
3.2x
-46%
Industrials
1.6x
+10%
5Y Avg
1.8x
-5%
Dividend Yield
1.61%
S&P 500
1.85%
-13%
Industrials
1.23%
+30%
5Y Avg
1.30%
+23%
| Metric | RYAAY | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg RYAAY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 15.8x | 18.9x-17% | 21.1x-25% | — |
| Trailing PE | 12.7x | 25.1x-49% | 25.8x-51% | 13.5x |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.69x | 1.58x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.7x | 15.3x-56% | 13.7x-51% | 12.7x-47% |
| Price/FCF | 15.0x | 21.3x-30% | 20.3x-26% | 18.3x-18% |
| Price/Sales | 1.7x | 3.2x-46% | 1.6x+10% | 1.8x |
| Dividend Yield | 1.61% | 1.85% | 1.23% | 1.30% |
RYAAY trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolRYAAY Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
RYAAY generates $1.8B in free cash flow at a 11.7% margin — 25.3% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 3.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$15.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+11.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
25.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
15.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
13.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.15
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.8B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
11.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
25.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
12.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.8B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
24.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.6%
Dividend
1.6%
Buyback
2.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$540M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.84
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
20.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
522M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageRYAAY Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Fuel Cost Fluctuations
Jet fuel is a major operating expense for Ryanair. Prices can swing widely due to economic and political factors, including global supply disruptions and market speculation. While the airline hedges a portion of its fuel, unhedged exposure can amplify margin pressure.
High Risk
Aviation Law Shifts
Ryanair operates across many European jurisdictions and faces evolving regulations. For example, a French law bans domestic flights if a train alternative exists under 2.5 hours, potentially restricting route options and increasing costs. New environmental or passenger‑rights rules could also raise operating expenses.
Medium
Operational Safety Risks
As an airline, Ryanair is exposed to the risk of aircraft accidents or terrorist incidents. Such events could trigger significant repair, replacement, legal claim costs and reputational damage, impacting financial performance.
Medium
Low‑Cost Carrier Rivalry
Ryanair competes in a highly contested low‑cost segment. Intense price wars or entry of new carriers could erode market share and compress margins.
Medium
Middle East Conflict Impact
Political instability in the Middle East can drive oil price surges, raising fuel costs. Higher fuel prices may lead to flight cancellations or surcharges, affecting revenue and operating costs.
Medium
COVID‑19‑style Disruptions
The COVID‑19 pandemic severely disrupted demand, operations, and growth plans for Ryanair. Future pandemics could similarly curtail travel demand and strain the company’s financial position.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why RYAAY Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Dominant Low-Cost Market Position
Ryanair operates over 3,600 flights daily to more than 240 destinations, making it Europe's largest low‑cost carrier. Its standardized Boeing 737 fleet and focus on cost control enable high passenger volumes while keeping operating costs low.
Efficient Operations & Cost Discipline
The airline’s business model prioritizes cost control and high passenger volume, supported by a single aircraft type (Boeing 737). This efficiency allows Ryanair to offer low fares and maintain profitability.
Strong Balance Sheet
Ryanair maintains a low debt‑to‑equity ratio and holds significant cash and equivalents, providing financial stability and flexibility to weather industry volatility.
Shareholder Return Focus
The company has a history of returning capital through share buyback programs, underscoring its commitment to enhancing shareholder value.
Positive Technical Momentum
Recent technical analysis shows momentum indicators moving into positive territory and oscillators suggesting a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend, indicating potential upside.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
RYAAY Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$60.33
52W Range Position
34%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$53.14
+13.5% from the low
52-Week High
$74.24
-18.7% from the high
1 Month
+7.20%
3 Month
-1.85%
YTD
-16.8%
1 Year
+7.1%
3Y CAGR
+12.0%
5Y CAGR
+6.1%
10Y CAGR
+6.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
RYAAY vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
15.8x
vs 16.1x median
-2% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+19.0%
vs +9.4% median
+101% above peer median
Net Margin
13.9%
vs 3.5% median
+292% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RYA RYAAY Ryanair Holdings plc | $31.5B | 15.8x | +19.0% | 13.9% | Buy | +30.1% |
LUV LUV Southwest Airlines Co. | $22.3B | 17.0x | +10.4% | 2.8% | Hold | +7.2% |
ULC ULCC Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. | $1.4B | — | +8.8% | -9.6% | Hold | -4.2% |
SNC SNCY Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. | $876M | 20.5x | +9.4% | 3.5% | Buy | +29.9% |
DAL DAL Delta Air Lines, Inc. | $54.2B | 15.2x | +6.8% | 7.9% | Buy | +4.1% |
UAL UAL United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | $37.5B | 12.5x | +10.8% | 6.1% | Buy | +21.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
RYAAY Dividend and Capital Return
RYAAY returns 3.6% annually — 1.61% through dividends and 2.0% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.0%
Dividend Yield
1.61%
Payout Ratio
20.4%
How RYAAY Splits Its Return
Div 1.61%
Buyback 2.0%
Dividend 1.61%Buybacks 2.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.84
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
-16.2%
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$540M
Estimated Shares Retired
9M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
522M
At 1.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.45 | — | 1.8% | 3.2% |
| 2025 | $1.00 | +27.3% | 6.3% | 8.2% |
| 2024 | $0.78 | — | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| 2015 | $1.51 | — | 3.4% | 6.2% |
| 2012 | $0.91 | — | 1.2% | 1.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsRYAAY Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 17 analysts covering the stock, 11 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 4 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $79, implying +30.1% from the current price of $60. The bear case scenario is $61 and the bull case is $142.
02What is the RYAAY stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for RYAAY is $79 based on 17 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $80 (+32.6% from today), and the low-end target is $77 (+27.6%). The base case model target is $88.
03Is Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY) stock overvalued in 2026?
RYAAY trades at 15.8x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for RYAAY in 2026 are: (1) Fuel Cost Fluctuations — Jet fuel is a major operating expense for Ryanair. (2) Aviation Law Shifts — Ryanair operates across many European jurisdictions and faces evolving regulations. (3) Operational Safety Risks — As an airline, Ryanair is exposed to the risk of aircraft accidents or terrorist incidents. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Ryanair Holdings plc's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates RYAAY will report consensus revenue of $18.5B (+19.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.30 (+27.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $22.2B in revenue.
06When does Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY) report its next earnings?
Ryanair Holdings plc is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-20. Consensus expects EPS of $1.45 and revenue of $5.2B. Over recent quarters, RYAAY has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Ryanair Holdings plc generate?
Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY) generated $1.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 11.7%. RYAAY returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.6% yield) and share repurchases ($540M TTM).