Upside case
Bull case
$126+73.2%
SCI would need investors to value it at roughly 30x earnings — about 13x more generous than today's 18x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Service Corporation International (SCI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
10
analysts
9 bullish · 0 bearish · 10 covering SCI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
9
Hold
1
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$93
+28.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$60 – $126
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
10
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
17.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.1B
SCI price targets
Three scenarios for where SCI stock could go
Current
~$73
Confidence
47 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $73
Bear
$60
Base
$95
Bull
$126
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$95+31.4%
At 23x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$60-17.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push SCI down roughly 17% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Service Corporation International
SCI · NYSEConsumer CyclicalPersonal Products & ServicesDecember year-end
Service Corporation International is the largest provider of deathcare services in North America, operating funeral homes and cemeteries. It generates revenue primarily from funeral services (roughly 60%) and cemetery operations (roughly 40%), including merchandise sales, property interment rights, and service fees. The company's scale advantage — with over 1,500 funeral homes and 400 cemeteries — creates significant operational efficiencies and brand recognition in a highly fragmented industry.
Market Cap
$10.1B
Revenue TTM
$4.3B
Net Income TTM
$626M
Net Margin
14.5%
SCI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.88/$0.84
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.87/$0.83
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.14/$1.14
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.97/$1.00
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.88/$0.84 | +4.8% | $1.1B/$1.0B | +2.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.87/$0.83 | +4.8% | $1.1B/$1.1B | -5.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.14/$1.14 | +0.0% | $1.1B/$1.1B | -0.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.97/$1.00 | -3.0% | $1.1B/$1.1B | +0.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.5B
+3.6% YoY
FY2
$4.6B
+3.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.52
+1.0% YoY
FY2
$4.71
+4.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$629M
FCF Margin: 14.5%
Next Earnings
July 29, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.87
Expected Revenue
$1.1B
SCI beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
SCI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $5.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product
41.6%
-1.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
95.0%
+3.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Product is the largest disclosed segment at 41.6% of FY 2025 revenue, down 1.3% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 95.0%, up 3.2% YoY.
SCI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $162 — implies +122.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
122.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SCI
19.1x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
22% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
SCI
19.1x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
10% discount
vs SCI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
19.1x
vs
5Y Average
19.4x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
17.6x
S&P 500
18.8x
-6%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
+8%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
19.1x
S&P 500
24.4x
-22%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
-10%
5Y Avg
19.4x
-2%
PEG Ratio
3.35x
S&P 500
1.66x
+102%
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
+263%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
-25%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
-6%
5Y Avg
12.1x
-6%
Price/FCF
18.2x
S&P 500
20.7x
-12%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
+17%
5Y Avg
21.1x
-14%
Price/Sales
2.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-24%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+235%
5Y Avg
2.7x
-14%
Dividend Yield
1.77%
S&P 500
1.91%
-7%
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
-18%
5Y Avg
1.48%
+20%
| Metric | SCI | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg SCI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 17.6x | 18.8x | 16.3x | — |
| Trailing PE | 19.1x | 24.4x-22% | 21.2x | 19.4x |
| PEG Ratio | 3.35x | 1.66x+102% | 0.92x+263% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.4x | 15.2x-25% | 12.2x | 12.1x |
| Price/FCF | 18.2x | 20.7x-12% | 15.6x+17% | 21.1x-14% |
| Price/Sales | 2.3x | 3.1x-24% | 0.7x+235% | 2.7x-14% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.77% | 1.91% | 2.17% | 1.48% |
SCI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSCI Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
SCI generates $629M in free cash flow at a 14.5% margin — 11.3% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 6.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+2.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
26.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
22.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
14.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.48
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$629M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
14.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
11.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$244M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$4.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
7.8× FCF
~7.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
39.4%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (11.3%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.3%
Dividend
1.8%
Buyback
4.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$461M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.29
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
33.8%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
139M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageSCI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Cautious Guidance
Management issued cautious 2026 guidance, indicating potential challenges ahead for Service Corporation International.
Medium
Earnings Volatility
Recent earnings release and outlook have caused share price volatility, with a 7-day return of 6.4%.
Medium
Operational Risks
Various risk factors can affect Service Corporation International's operations and financial performance.
Lower
Analyst Sentiment
Despite risks, analysts maintain a Buy rating with a consensus target price indicating upside potential.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SCI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Valuation multiple expansion
SCI shares are trading at a higher forward P/E multiple (19.5x) compared to historical levels (16.8x), suggesting market optimism about future earnings.
Pricing power validation
Despite volume challenges, SCI's ability to maintain margins suggests strong pricing power in the funeral services industry.
Dividend consistency
The company continues to pay quarterly dividends ($0.34 per share) even amid earnings volatility, demonstrating commitment to shareholder returns.
Share buyback program
SCI's ongoing share repurchases help support earnings per share growth despite modest revenue growth.
Earnings catalyst potential
Upcoming earnings reports and AIDR updates could serve as positive catalysts for the stock if they demonstrate improved fundamentals.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SCI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$72.62
52W Range Position
21%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$68.41
+6.2% from the low
52-Week High
$88.67
-18.1% from the high
1 Month
-7.84%
3 Month
-5.63%
YTD
-5.9%
1 Year
-7.3%
3Y CAGR
+3.6%
5Y CAGR
+7.0%
10Y CAGR
+10.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SCI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
17.6x
vs 15.1x median
+17% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.6%
vs +2.8% median
+28% above peer median
Net Margin
14.5%
vs 1.4% median
+955% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SCI SCI Service Corporation International | $10.1B | 17.6x | +3.6% | 14.5% | Buy | +28.1% |
CSV CSV Carriage Services, Inc. | $605M | 11.1x | +5.6% | 10.6% | Buy | +31.0% |
MAT MATW Matthews International Corporation | $820M | 24.2x | 0.0% | 0.8% | Buy | — |
HI HI Hillenbrand, Inc. | $2.3B | 12.4x | -2.0% | 1.4% | Buy | +0.1% |
MSG MSGS Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. | $8.9B | — | +4.0% | -2.1% | Buy | +10.0% |
SRE SRE Sempra | $59.3B | 17.7x | +2.8% | 15.2% | Buy | +17.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SCI Dividend and Capital Return
SCI returns capital mainly through $461M/year in buybacks (4.6% buyback yield), with a modest 1.77% dividend — combining for 6.3% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 15 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
6.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
4.6%
Dividend Yield
1.77%
Payout Ratio
33.8%
How SCI Splits Its Return
Div 1.77%
Buyback 4.6%
Dividend 1.77%Buybacks 4.6%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.29
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
15Y
3Y Div CAGR
8.4%
5Y Div CAGR
10.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$461M
Estimated Shares Retired
6M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
139M
At 4.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.70 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.30 | +9.2% | 4.1% | 5.8% |
| 2024 | $1.19 | +6.2% | 2.2% | 3.7% |
| 2023 | $1.12 | +9.8% | 5.2% | 6.8% |
| 2022 | $1.02 | +15.9% | 6.0% | 7.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsSCI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Service Corporation International (SCI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Service Corporation International (SCI) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 10 analysts covering the stock, 9 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 1 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $93, implying +28.1% from the current price of $73. The bear case scenario is $60 and the bull case is $126.
02What is the SCI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SCI is $93 based on 10 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $93 (+28.1% from today), and the low-end target is $93 (+28.1%). The base case model target is $95.
03Is Service Corporation International (SCI) stock overvalued in 2026?
SCI trades at 17.6x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Service Corporation International (SCI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SCI in 2026 are: (1) Cautious Guidance — Management issued cautious 2026 guidance, indicating potential challenges ahead for Service Corporation International. (2) Earnings Volatility — Recent earnings release and outlook have caused share price volatility, with a 7-day return of 6. (3) Operational Risks — Various risk factors can affect Service Corporation International's operations and financial performance. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Service Corporation International's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SCI will report consensus revenue of $4.5B (+3.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.52 (+1.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.6B in revenue.
06When does Service Corporation International (SCI) report its next earnings?
Service Corporation International is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-29. Consensus expects EPS of $0.87 and revenue of $1.1B. Over recent quarters, SCI has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Service Corporation International generate?
Service Corporation International (SCI) generated $629M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 14.5%. SCI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.8% yield) and share repurchases ($461M TTM).