Upside case
Bull case
$221+536.3%
SMCI would need investors to value it at roughly 99x earnings — about 84x more generous than today's 16x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
22
analysts
8 bullish · 1 bearish · 22 covering SMCI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
8
Hold
13
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$46
+33.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$27 – $221
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
22
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
15.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $20.8B
SMCI price targets
Three scenarios for where SMCI stock could go
Current
~$35
Confidence
55 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $35
Bear
$27
Base
$106
Bull
$221
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$106+206.5%
At 48x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$27-22.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push SMCI down roughly 22% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Super Micro Computer, Inc.
SMCI · NASDAQTechnologyComputer HardwareJune year-end
Super Micro Computer designs and manufactures high-performance, modular server and storage solutions for data centers and enterprise computing. It generates revenue primarily from selling complete server systems (~70% of sales) and server subsystems/accessories (~30%), with its business model centered on rapid customization and volume production. The company's key advantage is its modular "building block" architecture—which enables faster time-to-market and cost-effective customization compared to traditional server vendors—combined with strong supply chain relationships.
Market Cap
$20.8B
Revenue TTM
$33.7B
Net Income TTM
$1.8B
Net Margin
5.3%
SMCI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.41/$0.45
Revenue
$5.8B/$6.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.35/$0.37
Revenue
$5.0B/$5.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.69/$0.49
Revenue
$12.7B/$10.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.84/$0.63
Revenue
$10.2B/$12.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.41/$0.45 | -7.9% | $5.8B/$6.0B | -3.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.35/$0.37 | -6.6% | $5.0B/$5.8B | -14.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.69/$0.49 | +40.8% | $12.7B/$10.4B | +21.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.84/$0.63 | +33.3% | $10.2B/$12.4B | -17.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$44.0B
+30.4% YoY
FY2
$58.3B
+32.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.57
+34.9% YoY
FY2
$5.15
+44.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$6.8B
FCF Margin: -20.3%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
SMCI beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
SMCI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $22.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Server And Storage Systems
97.0%
+50.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
59.4%
+28.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Server And Storage Systems is the largest disclosed segment at 97.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 50.2% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 59.4%, up 28.1% YoY.
SMCI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $63 — implies +131.7% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
131.7%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SMCI
20.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
18% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
SMCI
20.6x
vs
Technology
27.5x
25% discount
vs SMCI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
20.6x
vs
5Y Average
20.1x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
15.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
-18%
Technology
21.7x
-28%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
20.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
-18%
Technology
27.5x
-25%
5Y Avg
20.1x
+3%
PEG Ratio
0.34x
S&P 500
1.75x
-80%
Technology
1.47x
-77%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
15.5x
S&P 500
15.3x
+2%
Technology
17.4x
-11%
5Y Avg
20.4x
-24%
Price/FCF
13.5x
S&P 500
21.3x
-36%
Technology
19.8x
-32%
5Y Avg
24.4x
-44%
Price/Sales
0.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-70%
Technology
2.4x
-61%
5Y Avg
1.6x
-40%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Technology
1.18%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | SMCI | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg SMCI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 15.6x | 19.1x-18% | 21.7x-28% | — |
| Trailing PE | 20.6x | 25.2x-18% | 27.5x-25% | 20.1x |
| PEG Ratio | 0.34x | 1.75x-80% | 1.47x-77% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.5x | 15.3x | 17.4x-11% | 20.4x-24% |
| Price/FCF | 13.5x | 21.3x-36% | 19.8x-32% | 24.4x-44% |
| Price/Sales | 0.9x | 3.1x-70% | 2.4x-61% | 1.6x-40% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.18% | — |
SMCI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSMCI Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
SMCI 15.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$33.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+56.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
8.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
4.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
5.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.64
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$6.8B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-20.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
15.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$5.2B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$391M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
26.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
1.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$200M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
599M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageSMCI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Market Volatility and Competition
The semiconductor and IT infrastructure markets are highly competitive and subject to rapid technological changes. Shifts in demand and pricing pressures can significantly impact SMCI's business operations.
High Risk
Supply Chain Disruptions
SMCI relies on a complex global supply chain, making it vulnerable to disruptions from geopolitical events, natural disasters, or manufacturing issues. Such disruptions could lead to revenue loss and increased costs.
Medium
Customer Concentration
A high concentration of revenue from a few key customers poses a risk to SMCI. If a major customer reduces orders or shifts to a competitor, it could substantially negatively impact the company's financial performance.
Medium
Execution and Growth Risks
As SMCI experiences rapid growth, it faces challenges in scaling operations and managing an expanding workforce. Failure to effectively manage this growth could lead to execution issues, impacting profitability.
Medium
Economic Downturns
A general economic slowdown or recession can reduce demand for IT infrastructure and related products. This decline directly affects SMCI's sales and revenue.
Lower
Intellectual Property and Innovation
SMCI's success depends on its ability to innovate and protect its intellectual property. Failure to stay ahead of technological advancements could erode its competitive advantage.
Lower
Regulatory and Geopolitical Risks
Operating globally exposes SMCI to various regulatory changes and geopolitical tensions. These factors could impact its operations, supply chain, and market access.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SMCI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Massive Order Backlog
SMCI has a substantial order book, including over $13 billion in Blackwell Ultra orders. This backlog is expected to grow with an increase in large-scale datacenter customers from four in FY25 to six to eight in FY26.
Revenue Growth and Guidance
The company has raised its FY2026 revenue guidance to at least $40 billion, up from a previous floor of $36 billion. In Q2 FY2026, SMCI reported revenue of $12.68 billion, a 123.36% year-over-year increase, significantly beating consensus estimates.
AI Tailwinds and Market Position
SMCI is a key player in providing the high-performance servers and infrastructure needed for AI workloads. Its 'Building Block Solutions' segment is driving profitability and is expected to contribute significantly to overall profit by FY2026.
Expanding Manufacturing
SMCI is expanding its manufacturing capabilities across the US, Taiwan, and the Netherlands to meet growing demand. This expansion is crucial for supporting the anticipated increase in orders and customer needs.
Insider Buying
Insider activity has been net positive, with a significant number of recent buy transactions. This trend indicates strong confidence from management in the company's future performance.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SMCI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$34.65
52W Range Position
35%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$19.49
+77.8% from the low
52-Week High
$62.36
-44.4% from the high
1 Month
+57.15%
3 Month
+0.79%
YTD
+11.9%
1 Year
+5.2%
3Y CAGR
+36.4%
5Y CAGR
+57.1%
10Y CAGR
+29.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SMCI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
15.6x
vs 23.9x median
-35% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+30.4%
vs +6.1% median
+399% above peer median
Net Margin
5.3%
vs 5.2% median
+1% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SMC SMCI Super Micro Computer, Inc. | $20.8B | 15.6x | +30.4% | 5.3% | Hold | +33.6% |
HPE HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company | $40.3B | 12.6x | +11.7% | -0.4% | Hold | -5.4% |
DEL DELL Dell Technologies Inc. | $79.7B | 23.9x | +4.6% | 5.2% | Buy | -29.4% |
NTA NTAP NetApp, Inc. | $22.1B | 14.0x | +3.0% | 18.1% | Hold | +7.8% |
PST PSTG Pure Storage, Inc. | $22.0B | 29.2x | +16.4% | 5.1% | Buy | +29.4% |
WDF WDFC WD-40 Company | $4.2B | 35.2x | +6.1% | 14.4% | Hold | +42.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SMCI Dividend and Capital Return
SMCI returns 1.0% annually — null% through dividends and 1.0% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
1.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$200M
Estimated Shares Retired
6M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
599M
At 1.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsSMCI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 22 analysts covering the stock, 8 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $46, implying +33.6% from the current price of $35. The bear case scenario is $27 and the bull case is $221.
02What is the SMCI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SMCI is $46 based on 22 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $64 (+84.7% from today), and the low-end target is $26 (-25.0%). The base case model target is $106.
03Is Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) stock overvalued in 2026?
SMCI trades at 15.6x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SMCI in 2026 are: (1) Market Volatility and Competition — The semiconductor and IT infrastructure markets are highly competitive and subject to rapid technological changes. (2) Supply Chain Disruptions — SMCI relies on a complex global supply chain, making it vulnerable to disruptions from geopolitical events, natural disasters, or manufacturing issues. (3) Customer Concentration — A high concentration of revenue from a few key customers poses a risk to SMCI. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SMCI will report consensus revenue of $44.0B (+30.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.57 (+34.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $58.3B in revenue.
06When does Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for SMCI is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Super Micro Computer, Inc. generate?
Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) had a free cash outflow of $6.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 20.3%. SMCI returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($200M TTM).