Upside case
Bull case
$92+200.0%
SMCI would need investors to value it at roughly 35x earnings — about 24x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
22
analysts
8 bullish · 1 bearish · 22 covering SMCI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
8
Hold
13
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$39
+25.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$44 – $92
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
22
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
11.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $18.4B
SMCI price targets
Three scenarios for where SMCI stock could go
Current
~$31
Confidence
50 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $31
Bear
$44
Base
$70
Bull
$92
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$70+127.7%
At 27x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$44+43.4%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push SMCI down roughly 43% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Super Micro Computer, Inc.
SMCI · NASDAQTechnologyComputer HardwareJune year-end
Super Micro Computer designs and manufactures high-performance, modular server and storage solutions for data centers and enterprise computing. It generates revenue primarily from selling complete server systems (~70% of sales) and server subsystems/accessories (~30%), with its business model centered on rapid customization and volume production. The company's key advantage is its modular "building block" architecture—which enables faster time-to-market and cost-effective customization compared to traditional server vendors—combined with strong supply chain relationships.
Market Cap
$18.4B
Revenue TTM
$33.7B
Net Income TTM
$1.8B
Net Margin
5.3%
SMCI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.41/$0.45
Revenue
$5.8B/$6.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.35/$0.37
Revenue
$5.0B/$5.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.69/$0.49
Revenue
$12.7B/$10.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.84/$0.62
Revenue
$10.2B/$12.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.41/$0.45 | -7.9% | $5.8B/$6.0B | -3.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.35/$0.37 | -6.6% | $5.0B/$5.8B | -14.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.69/$0.49 | +40.8% | $12.7B/$10.4B | +21.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.84/$0.62 | +36.1% | $10.2B/$12.4B | -17.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$37.7B
+12.0% YoY
FY2
$45.0B
+19.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.15
+19.3% YoY
FY2
$3.85
+22.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$6.8B
FCF Margin: -20.3%
Next Earnings
August 4, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.70
Expected Revenue
$11.7B
SMCI beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
SMCI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $22.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Server And Storage Systems
97.0%
+50.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
59.4%
+28.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Server And Storage Systems is the largest disclosed segment at 97.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 50.2% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 59.4%, up 28.1% YoY.
SMCI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $71 — implies +131.3% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
131.3%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SMCI
18.3x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
25% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
SMCI
18.3x
vs
Technology
29.0x
37% discount
vs SMCI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
18.3x
vs
5Y Average
20.1x
9% discount
Forward PE
11.8x
S&P 500
18.8x
-37%
Technology
22.3x
-47%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
18.3x
S&P 500
24.4x
-25%
Technology
29.0x
-37%
5Y Avg
20.1x
-9%
PEG Ratio
0.30x
S&P 500
1.66x
-82%
Technology
1.51x
-80%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
13.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
-10%
Technology
16.6x
-18%
5Y Avg
20.4x
-33%
Price/FCF
12.0x
S&P 500
20.7x
-42%
Technology
19.2x
-38%
5Y Avg
24.4x
-51%
Price/Sales
0.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-73%
Technology
2.4x
-66%
5Y Avg
1.6x
-47%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Technology
1.11%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | SMCI | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg SMCI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 11.8x | 18.8x-37% | 22.3x-47% | — |
| Trailing PE | 18.3x | 24.4x-25% | 29.0x-37% | 20.1x |
| PEG Ratio | 0.30x | 1.66x-82% | 1.51x-80% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.7x | 15.2x | 16.6x-18% | 20.4x-33% |
| Price/FCF | 12.0x | 20.7x-42% | 19.2x-38% | 24.4x-51% |
| Price/Sales | 0.8x | 3.1x-73% | 2.4x-66% | 1.6x-47% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.11% | — |
SMCI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSMCI Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
SMCI 15.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 1.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$33.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+56.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
8.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
4.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
5.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.64
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$6.8B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-20.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
15.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$5.2B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$391M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
26.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.1%
Dividend
—
Buyback
1.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$200M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
599M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageSMCI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Stock Volatility
The stock has experienced significant volatility, including a 29.87% drop in a week following a $7 billion financing announcement.
High Risk
Negative Sentiment
Influencers have outlined a bear case for SMCI, raising concerns about future performance and impacting investor risk appetite.
Medium
Capital Raise Concerns
The $7 billion financing announcement has raised concerns about dilution and the company's financial strategy.
Medium
AI Backlog Risk
Despite being central to the AI server buildout, there are uncertainties around the sustainability of its AI-related backlog.
Lower
Sector Competition
The technology sector is highly competitive, and SMCI may face headwinds from rivals in the AI server space.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SMCI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
AI infrastructure leadership
SMCI is recognized for its leadership in AI infrastructure, with rapid growth driven by innovations in liquid cooling and modular server design.
DLC architecture adoption
The shift toward Direct Liquid Cooling (DLC) as the default for high-density AI racks is a key catalyst, with SMCI aggressively marketing these solutions.
Attractive valuation metrics
SMCI's trailing and forward P/E ratios of 24.57 and 16.50 respectively indicate a potentially undervalued stock relative to its growth prospects.
Full-stack rack solutions
SMCI positions itself as a full-stack provider of rack-scale systems, integrating power, cooling, compute, and networking for comprehensive AI infrastructure.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SMCI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$30.66
52W Range Position
26%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$19.49
+57.3% from the low
52-Week High
$62.36
-50.8% from the high
1 Month
-0.62%
3 Month
+1.02%
YTD
-1.0%
1 Year
-31.1%
3Y CAGR
+11.3%
5Y CAGR
+55.0%
10Y CAGR
+27.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SMCI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
11.8x
vs 37.6x median
-69% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+12.0%
vs +6.0% median
+100% above peer median
Net Margin
5.3%
vs 6.3% median
-16% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SMC SMCI Super Micro Computer, Inc. | $18.4B | 11.8x | +12.0% | 5.3% | Hold | +25.9% |
HPE HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company | $62.8B | 13.9x | +8.3% | 3.9% | Hold | +46.1% |
DEL DELL Dell Technologies Inc. | $272.3B | 41.1x | +5.1% | 6.3% | Buy | +9.6% |
NTA NTAP NetApp, Inc. | $31.6B | 20.0x | +5.9% | 18.4% | Hold | +4.6% |
PST PSTG Everpure, Inc | $28.5B | 37.6x | +6.6% | 5.9% | Buy | -0.3% |
WDF WDFC WD-40 Company | $4.5B | 37.9x | +6.0% | 14.4% | Hold | +109.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SMCI Dividend and Capital Return
SMCI returns 1.1% annually — null% through dividends and 1.1% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
1.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.1%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$200M
Estimated Shares Retired
7M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
599M
At 1.1%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsSMCI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 22 analysts covering the stock, 8 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $39, implying +25.9% from the current price of $31. The bear case scenario is $44 and the bull case is $92.
02What is the SMCI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SMCI is $39 based on 22 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $45 (+46.8% from today), and the low-end target is $26 (-15.2%). The base case model target is $70.
03Is Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) stock overvalued in 2026?
SMCI trades at 11.8x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SMCI in 2026 are: (1) Stock Volatility — The stock has experienced significant volatility, including a 29. (2) Negative Sentiment — Influencers have outlined a bear case for SMCI, raising concerns about future performance and impacting investor risk appetite. (3) Capital Raise Concerns — The $7 billion financing announcement has raised concerns about dilution and the company's financial strategy. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SMCI will report consensus revenue of $37.7B (+12.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.15 (+19.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $45.0B in revenue.
06When does Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) report its next earnings?
Super Micro Computer, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-04. Consensus expects EPS of $0.70 and revenue of $11.7B. Over recent quarters, SMCI has beaten EPS estimates 58% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Super Micro Computer, Inc. generate?
Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) had a free cash outflow of $6.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 20.3%. SMCI returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($200M TTM).