Upside case
Bull case
$11438+52081.5%
SMFG would need investors to value it at roughly 45x earnings — about 45x more generous than today's 0x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. (SMFG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
4
analysts
1 bullish · 0 bearish · 4 covering SMFG
Strong Buy
0
Buy
1
Hold
3
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
—
— vs today
Scenario Range
$1459 – $11438
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
4
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
0.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $139.4B
SMFG price targets
Three scenarios for where SMFG stock could go
Current
~$22
Confidence
41 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $22
Bear
$1459
Base
$2867
Bull
$11438
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$2867+12978.2%
At 11x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$1459+6554.3%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push SMFG down roughly 6554% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc.
SMFG · NYSEFinancial ServicesBanks - DiversifiedMarch year-end
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group is one of Japan's largest banking conglomerates providing comprehensive financial services globally. It generates revenue primarily through commercial banking—including corporate lending (wholesale business) and retail banking—supplemented by leasing, securities, and consumer finance operations. The company's competitive advantage lies in its entrenched position within Japan's keiretsu system—with deep corporate relationships—and its extensive domestic branch network.
Market Cap
$139.4B
Net Income TTM
$1.39T
SMFG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
73%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+23.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.07/—
Revenue
$15.9B/—
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.40/$0.37
Revenue
$16.0B/$7.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.96/$0.41
Revenue
$17.7B/$7.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.16/$0.40
Revenue
$35.9B/$7.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.07/— | — | $15.9B/— | — |
| Q3 2025 | $0.40/$0.37 | +9.1% | $16.0B/$7.4B | +115.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.96/$0.41 | +134.3% | $17.7B/$7.3B | +143.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.16/$0.40 | -60.0% | $35.9B/$7.5B | +381.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$9.75T
+1.0% YoY
FY2
$10.75T
+10.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$226.53
-37.1% YoY
FY2
$252.49
+11.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$0
Next Earnings
May 13, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.23
Expected Revenue
$7.8B
SMFG beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
SMFG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $3436 — implies +16148.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
16148.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SMFG
11.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
55% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
SMFG
11.4x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
15% discount
vs SMFG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
11.4x
vs
5Y Average
0.0x
+23835% premium
Forward PE
0.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
-100%
Financial Services
10.5x
-99%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
11.4x
S&P 500
25.2x
-55%
Financial Services
13.4x
-15%
5Y Avg
0.0x
+23835%
PEG Ratio
0.92x
S&P 500
1.75x
-47%
Financial Services
1.03x
-10%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
2.3x
S&P 500
15.3x
-85%
Financial Services
11.4x
-80%
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
4.7x
S&P 500
21.3x
-78%
Financial Services
10.6x
-56%
5Y Avg
0.1x
+8414%
Price/Sales
2.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-28%
Financial Services
2.3x
+0%
5Y Avg
0.0x
+34683%
Dividend Yield
3.08%
S&P 500
1.88%
+64%
Financial Services
2.68%
+15%
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | SMFG | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg SMFG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 0.1x | 19.1x-100% | 10.5x-99% | — |
| Trailing PE | 11.4x | 25.2x-55% | 13.4x-15% | 0.0x+23835% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.92x | 1.75x-47% | 1.03x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.3x | 15.3x-85% | 11.4x-80% | — |
| Price/FCF | 4.7x | 21.3x-78% | 10.6x-56% | 0.1x+8414% |
| Price/Sales | 2.3x | 3.1x-28% | 2.3x | 0.0x+34683% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.08% | 1.88% | 2.68% | — |
SMFG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSMFG Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
SMFG generates 9.1% ROE and 0.5% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$360.31
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
9.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
2.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$75.59T
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$17.29T
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
9.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.2%
Dividend
3.1%
Buyback
1.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$251.6B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$105.47
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
35.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
6.4B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageSMFG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Monetary Policy & Interest Rates
Japan’s Bank of Japan could raise rates, which would increase SMFG’s borrowing costs and squeeze margins. With a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 1.63, a rate hike could raise interest expense materially and erode profitability.
Medium
Operational Execution Risk
SMFG’s profitability hinges on successful expense‑optimization plans. Failure to execute these initiatives could leave cost savings unrealized and drag earnings.
Medium
Market & Valuation Risk
SMFG trades at a price‑to‑book of 0.78, suggesting potential undervaluation, yet some analysts view it as overvalued. Recent revenue fell short of consensus estimates, raising doubts about meeting market expectations.
Medium
Analyst Sentiment & Momentum
Consensus ratings are a moderate buy, but earnings per share recently missed estimates and momentum is described as lackluster, which could weigh on short‑term price action.
Lower
ESG Exposure
Sustainalytics notes SMFG’s exposure to environmental, social, and governance risks, which could affect its economic value if not managed proactively.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SMFG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
EPS Growth Momentum
SMFG's estimated EPS growth of 20.12% surpasses its three‑year average, indicating robust earnings expansion. Analysts project a 15.38% earnings increase for the upcoming year, reinforcing the bank's profitability trajectory.
Revenue & Profit Scale
The bank reported trailing twelve months revenue of $23.65 billion, with profits totaling $4.70 billion, underscoring a solid top‑line and bottom‑line performance. This scale positions SMFG among Japan's leading financial institutions.
International Growth & ROE Target
SMFG is expanding internationally, pivoting toward higher‑ROE businesses outside Japan. The company aims for a long‑run ROE of 15%, targeting parity with top U.S. banks.
Semiconductor Loan Demand
The bank benefits from strong loan demand within the semiconductor sector, driving solid results and an optimistic outlook. This niche exposure provides a stable revenue stream amid broader market volatility.
Potential Jefferies Takeover
Speculation surrounds a potential takeover of Jefferies (JEF), which could generate attractive ROEs for SMFG. Such a move would diversify the bank's portfolio and enhance shareholder value.
Interest Rate Hike Advantage
SMFG is well‑positioned to benefit from potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, which could boost its net interest income. This sensitivity to rate changes offers upside potential in a tightening monetary environment.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SMFG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$21.92
52W Range Position
77%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$13.90
+57.7% from the low
52-Week High
$24.34
-9.9% from the high
1 Month
+7.24%
3 Month
-4.86%
YTD
+12.7%
1 Year
+57.5%
3Y CAGR
+38.6%
5Y CAGR
+24.6%
10Y CAGR
+13.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SMFG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
0.1x
vs 0.0x median
+1323% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.0%
vs +1.9% median
-48% below peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SMF SMFG Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. | $139.4B | 0.1x | +1.0% | — | Hold | — |
MFG MFG Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. | $108.9B | 0.1x | -1.2% | — | Hold | +13.0% |
MUF MUFG Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. | $208.0B | 0.1x | +4.0% | — | Buy | — |
KB KB KB Financial Group Inc. | $39.3B | 0.0x | +19.8% | — | Hold | — |
SHG SHG Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd. | $34.1B | 0.0x | +1.9% | — | Buy | — |
WF WF Woori Financial Group Inc. | $16.8B | 0.0x | -0.6% | — | Buy | — |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SMFG Dividend and Capital Return
SMFG returns 4.2% total yield, led by a 3.08% dividend, raised 8 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 1.2%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
4.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.2%
Dividend Yield
3.08%
Payout Ratio
35.0%
How SMFG Splits Its Return
Div 3.08%
Buyback 1.2%
Dividend 3.08%Buybacks 1.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$105.47
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
8Y
3Y Div CAGR
48.0%
5Y Div CAGR
8.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
1 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$251.6B
Estimated Shares Retired
11.5B
Approx. Share Reduction
180.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
6.4B
At 180.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $0.55 | +34.7% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2024 | $0.41 | +15.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2023 | $0.35 | +109.3% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2022 | $0.17 | -68.6% | 0.3% | 100.0% |
| 2021 | $0.54 | +46.9% | 0.2% | 100.0% |
FAQ
6 questionsSMFG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. (SMFG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. (SMFG) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 4 analysts covering the stock, 1 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The bear case scenario is $1459 and the bull case is $11438.
02Is Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. (SMFG) stock overvalued in 2026?
SMFG trades at 0.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
03What are the main risks for Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. (SMFG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SMFG in 2026 are: (1) Monetary Policy & Interest Rates — Japan’s Bank of Japan could raise rates, which would increase SMFG’s borrowing costs and squeeze margins. (2) Operational Execution Risk — SMFG’s profitability hinges on successful expense‑optimization plans. (3) Market & Valuation Risk — SMFG trades at a price‑to‑book of 0. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
04What is Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SMFG will report consensus revenue of $9.75T (+1.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $226.53 (-37.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $10.75T in revenue.
05When does Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. (SMFG) report its next earnings?
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-13. Consensus expects EPS of $0.23 and revenue of $7.8B. Over recent quarters, SMFG has beaten EPS estimates 73% of the time.
06How much free cash flow does Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. generate?
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. (SMFG) generated $0 in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. SMFG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.1% yield) and share repurchases ($251.6B TTM).