Upside case
Bull case
$444620+648886.3%
SHG would need investors to value it at roughly 37x earnings — about 37x more generous than today's 0x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd. (SHG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
2
analysts
2 bullish · 0 bearish · 2 covering SHG
Strong Buy
0
Buy
2
Hold
0
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
—
— vs today
Scenario Range
$85078 – $444620
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
2
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
0.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $34.1B
SHG price targets
Three scenarios for where SHG stock could go
Current
~$69
Confidence
35 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $69
Bear
$85078
Base
$134409
Bull
$444620
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$134409+196088.4%
At 11x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$85078+124083.8%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push SHG down roughly 124084% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd.
SHG · NYSEFinancial ServicesBanks - RegionalDecember year-end
Shinhan Financial Group is a South Korean financial holding company that operates a full-service banking and financial services platform. It generates revenue primarily through interest income from its banking operations — including retail and corporate lending — complemented by fee-based income from credit cards, securities trading, and insurance products. The company's competitive advantage lies in its dominant market position in South Korea, extensive branch network, and integrated financial ecosystem that creates cross-selling opportunities across its diverse business segments.
Market Cap
$34.1B
Net Income TTM
$5.00T
SHG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
73%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
90%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+9.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q4 2025
EPS
$2.05/$1.96
Revenue
$2.8B/$2.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.68/$0.82
Revenue
$2.5B/$2.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.68/$0.82
Revenue
$6.6B/$2.7B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.21/$2.15
Revenue
$2.8B/$2.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $2.05/$1.96 | +4.6% | $2.8B/$2.8B | +0.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.68/$0.82 | -17.4% | $2.5B/$2.4B | +2.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.68/$0.82 | -17.4% | $6.6B/$2.7B | +144.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.21/$2.15 | +2.8% | $2.8B/$2.8B | +1.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$40.53T
+1.9% YoY
FY2
$45.36T
+11.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$12394.04
+26.9% YoY
FY2
$13990.12
+12.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$10.55T
Next Earnings
May 21, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.27
Expected Revenue
$2.8B
SHG beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
SHG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $68719 — implies +100439.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
100439.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SHG
9.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
62% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
SHG
9.6x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
28% discount
vs SHG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
9.6x
vs
5Y Average
0.0x
+235337% premium
Forward PE
0.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
-100%
Financial Services
10.5x
-100%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
9.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
-62%
Financial Services
13.4x
-28%
5Y Avg
0.0x
+235337%
PEG Ratio
1.03x
S&P 500
1.75x
-41%
Financial Services
1.03x
+1%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
22.5x
S&P 500
15.3x
+48%
Financial Services
11.4x
+97%
5Y Avg
15.2x
+48%
Price/FCF
8.0x
S&P 500
21.3x
-62%
Financial Services
10.6x
-25%
5Y Avg
0.0x
+259004%
Price/Sales
1.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
-60%
Financial Services
2.3x
-45%
5Y Avg
0.0x
+220460%
Dividend Yield
2.65%
S&P 500
1.88%
+41%
Financial Services
2.68%
-1%
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | SHG | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg SHG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 0.0x | 19.1x-100% | 10.5x-100% | — |
| Trailing PE | 9.6x | 25.2x-62% | 13.4x-28% | 0.0x+235337% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.03x | 1.75x-41% | 1.03x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.5x | 15.3x+48% | 11.4x+97% | 15.2x+48% |
| Price/FCF | 8.0x | 21.3x-62% | 10.6x-25% | 0.0x+259004% |
| Price/Sales | 1.2x | 3.1x-60% | 2.3x-45% | 0.0x+220460% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.65% | 1.88% | 2.68% | — |
SHG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSHG Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
SHG generates 8.5% ROE and 0.7% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9766.47
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
8.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
2.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$21.14T
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$133.07T
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
8.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.2%
Dividend
2.6%
Buyback
2.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.27T
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2641.09
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
26.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
498M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageSHG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Real Estate PF Crisis
Shinhan Capital has reported rising non‑performing loans and a downgrade in its credit outlook amid the ongoing real‑estate project‑financing crisis. The spike in the non‑performing loan ratio has eroded asset quality, squeezed profitability, and weakened capital adequacy.
High Risk
Macroeconomic Volatility
South Korea’s financial market is exposed to macro‑economic swings, including interest‑rate shifts and volatile consumer spending. Recent real‑estate project‑financing workouts have led to elevated provisioning and a tightened risk appetite, heightening sensitivity to credit cycles.
Medium
Regulatory Scrutiny
Ongoing investigations into alleged loan‑to‑value collusion among major banks could trigger fines and reputational damage. New internal‑control policies require continuous adaptation, potentially increasing compliance costs.
Medium
Technological Disruption
The bank must invest heavily in digital transformation and AI integration to compete with fintech entrants. Failure to keep pace could erode market share and compress future earnings.
Medium
Overseas Expansion Risks
Shinhan’s expansion into ASEAN, Japan, and the U.S. exposes it to operational risks and the need to navigate diverse regulatory and market environments. Local market adaptation challenges could affect profitability and growth prospects.
Lower
ESG Risks
The firm faces environmental, social, and governance risks such as natural disasters, industrial safety incidents, and pollution. These factors could impact loan and investment policies and reputational standing.
Lower
Short Interest Increase
A rise in short interest signals declining investor sentiment and could exert downward pressure on the stock price, potentially amplifying volatility.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SHG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Projected Earnings Surge
Shinhan Financial Group is forecast to grow earnings by 16.08% next year, raising EPS from $5.97 to $6.93. This upward trajectory reflects robust profitability and operational efficiency.
Generous Shareholder Return Plan
Shinhan commits to return 50% of earnings to shareholders through dividends and buybacks by 2027, with a current dividend yield of 2.79%. The payout ratio of 20.64% signals sustainability of this policy.
Positive Technical Momentum
Short‑ and long‑term moving averages are bullish, and a hammer chart pattern suggests support after recent declines. These signals point to a potential trend reversal and upward price movement.
Strong Price Momentum
The stock has gained 116.9% over the past year and continues to trend upward in recent weeks, indicating sustained investor interest and momentum.
Stablecoin Issuance Potential
Shinhan could become a stablecoin issuer, supported by the Korean central bank's stance and the company's initiatives in this area. This move would position the bank at the forefront of digital currency innovation.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SHG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$68.51
52W Range Position
87%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$35.96
+90.5% from the low
52-Week High
$73.40
-6.7% from the high
1 Month
+9.16%
3 Month
+5.14%
YTD
+26.8%
1 Year
+87.0%
3Y CAGR
+36.4%
5Y CAGR
+13.2%
10Y CAGR
+7.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SHG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
0.0x
vs 0.1x median
-93% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.9%
vs +8.2% median
-77% below peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SHG SHG Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd. | $34.1B | 0.0x | +1.9% | — | Buy | — |
KB KB KB Financial Group Inc. | $39.3B | 0.0x | +19.8% | — | Hold | — |
WF WF Woori Financial Group Inc. | $16.8B | 0.0x | -0.6% | — | Buy | — |
HDB HDB HDFC Bank Limited | $196.1B | 0.2x | +8.2% | — | Hold | — |
IBN IBN ICICI Bank Limited | $95.7B | 0.2x | +12.4% | — | Buy | — |
MFG MFG Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. | $108.9B | 0.1x | -1.2% | — | Hold | +13.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SHG Dividend and Capital Return
SHG returns 5.2% total yield, led by a 2.65% dividend. Buybacks add another 2.5%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
5.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.5%
Dividend Yield
2.65%
Payout Ratio
26.0%
How SHG Splits Its Return
Div 2.65%
Buyback 2.5%
Dividend 2.65%Buybacks 2.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2641.09
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.9%
5Y Div CAGR
3.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
3 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.27T
Estimated Shares Retired
18.5B
Approx. Share Reduction
3710.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
498M
At 3710.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.47 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.59 | -18.9% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2024 | $1.96 | +64.5% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2023 | $1.19 | -23.1% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2022 | $1.55 | -4.3% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
FAQ
6 questionsSHG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd. (SHG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd. (SHG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 2 analysts covering the stock, 2 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 0 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The bear case scenario is $85078 and the bull case is $444620.
02Is Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd. (SHG) stock overvalued in 2026?
SHG trades at 0.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
03What are the main risks for Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd. (SHG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SHG in 2026 are: (1) Real Estate PF Crisis — Shinhan Capital has reported rising non‑performing loans and a downgrade in its credit outlook amid the ongoing real‑estate project‑financing crisis. (2) Macroeconomic Volatility — South Korea’s financial market is exposed to macro‑economic swings, including interest‑rate shifts and volatile consumer spending. (3) Regulatory Scrutiny — Ongoing investigations into alleged loan‑to‑value collusion among major banks could trigger fines and reputational damage. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
04What is Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SHG will report consensus revenue of $40.53T (+1.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $12394.04 (+26.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $45.36T in revenue.
05When does Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd. (SHG) report its next earnings?
Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-21. Consensus expects EPS of $2.27 and revenue of $2.8B. Over recent quarters, SHG has beaten EPS estimates 73% of the time.
06How much free cash flow does Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd. generate?
Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd. (SHG) had a free cash outflow of $10.55T in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. SHG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.6% yield) and share repurchases ($1.27T TTM).