Upside case
Bull case
$9285+50390.1%
MUFG would need investors to value it at roughly 47x earnings — about 47x more generous than today's 0x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (MUFG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
2
analysts
2 bullish · 0 bearish · 2 covering MUFG
Strong Buy
0
Buy
2
Hold
0
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
—
— vs today
Scenario Range
$1684 – $9285
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
2
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
0.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $208.0B
MUFG price targets
Three scenarios for where MUFG stock could go
Current
~$18
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $18
Bear
$1684
Base
$3979
Bull
$9285
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$3979+21537.6%
At 20x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$1684+9059.1%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push MUFG down roughly 9059% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc.
MUFG · NYSEFinancial ServicesBanks - DiversifiedMarch year-end
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group is one of the world's largest banking and financial services conglomerates, operating primarily through its core subsidiary MUFG Bank. It generates revenue from traditional banking activities — commercial lending, retail banking, and investment banking — with significant contributions from its global corporate banking and asset management divisions. The company's key advantage is its dominant position in Japan's financial system combined with a vast international network that provides deep client relationships and cross-border banking capabilities.
Market Cap
$208.0B
Net Income TTM
$1.90T
MUFG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+72.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.07/—
Revenue
$19.9B/—
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.32/$0.29
Revenue
$20.4B/$9.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.44/$0.31
Revenue
$21.7B/$9.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.29/$0.28
Revenue
$23.9B/$9.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.07/— | — | $19.9B/— | — |
| Q3 2025 | $0.32/$0.29 | +10.3% | $20.4B/$9.2B | +122.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.44/$0.31 | +41.6% | $21.7B/$9.4B | +131.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.29/$0.28 | +3.1% | $23.9B/$9.0B | +164.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$12.92T
+4.0% YoY
FY2
$14.72T
+13.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$190.60
+14.7% YoY
FY2
$220.96
+15.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$0
Next Earnings
May 15, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.24
Expected Revenue
$8.1B
MUFG beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
MUFG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.19T
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Other Fees And Commissions
26.7%
+22.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
29.3%
+23.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Other Fees And Commissions is the largest disclosed segment at 26.7% of FY 2025 revenue, up 22.7% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 29.3%, up 23.3% YoY.
MUFG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $1847 — implies +10340.3% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
10340.3%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MUFG
18.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
29% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
MUFG
18.0x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
+35% premium
vs MUFG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
18.0x
vs
5Y Average
0.1x
+22522% premium
Forward PE
0.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
-100%
Financial Services
10.5x
-99%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
18.0x
S&P 500
25.2x
-29%
Financial Services
13.4x
+35%
5Y Avg
0.1x
+22522%
PEG Ratio
0.57x
S&P 500
1.75x
-67%
Financial Services
1.03x
-44%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
4.3x
S&P 500
15.3x
-72%
Financial Services
11.4x
-62%
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Financial Services
10.6x
—
5Y Avg
0.0x
—
Price/Sales
2.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-17%
Financial Services
2.3x
+16%
5Y Avg
0.0x
+21191%
Dividend Yield
1.59%
S&P 500
1.88%
-15%
Financial Services
2.68%
-41%
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | MUFG | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg MUFG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 0.1x | 19.1x-100% | 10.5x-99% | — |
| Trailing PE | 18.0x | 25.2x-29% | 13.4x+35% | 0.1x+22522% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.57x | 1.75x-67% | 1.03x-44% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.3x | 15.3x-72% | 11.4x-62% | — |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 10.6x | 0.0x |
| Price/Sales | 2.6x | 3.1x-17% | 2.3x+16% | 0.0x+21191% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.59% | 1.88% | 2.68% | — |
MUFG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMUFG Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
MUFG generates 8.5% ROE and 0.5% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$166.14
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
8.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
2.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$109.10T
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$19.69T
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
8.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.9%
Dividend
1.6%
Buyback
1.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$418.5B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$45.78
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
28.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
11.6B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageMUFG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Cybersecurity & Info Management
MUFG identifies cyber‑attacks as a top risk and has implemented robust online verification and threat intelligence. However, the bank was fined for poor information management and unauthorized sharing of customer data, highlighting ongoing compliance weaknesses.
High Risk
Regulatory & Compliance Fines
MUFG Securities EMEA was fined $9.8 million by the SEC for failing to comply with substituted compliance conditions, while MUFG Bank faced a $1.75 million fine for inadequate information management controls. These penalties underscore the bank’s vulnerability to regulatory scrutiny.
High Risk
Liquidity & Funding Risk
MUFG could experience impairment of liquidity if it cannot raise funding, faces increased funding costs, or cannot sell assets quickly. Such a scenario would constrain the bank’s ability to meet obligations and could erode profitability.
Medium
Interest Rate Sensitivity
The bank’s financial results are sensitive to domestic and international interest rate changes, which can affect the value of its investment portfolio and net interest margins. Fluctuations may compress earnings or alter asset‑liability management strategies.
Medium
Credit Deterioration Risk
Economic downturns in Japan and globally could lead to higher non‑performing loans and increased credit costs as borrowers’ performance deteriorates. Rising default rates would directly impact MUFG’s loan portfolio quality.
Medium
Climate Change & ESG Exposure
MUFG identifies physical risks (e.g., extreme weather) and transition risks (e.g., shift to a low‑carbon economy) as top ESG concerns. These risks can affect the bank’s operations and its clients, especially in coal and oil/gas financing.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MUFG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Consistent Earnings Expansion
MUFG has posted an average annual earnings growth of 19.3% over the past five years, far outpacing the banking industry’s 3.4% benchmark. Analysts project a 10.10% earnings increase next year, raising EPS from $0.99 to $1.09.
Solid Cash Cushion & Dividend
The bank holds a net cash balance of $217.92 billion, equivalent to $19.23 per share, providing ample liquidity for strategic initiatives. It pays an annual dividend of $0.41, delivering a 2.25% yield and a 33.33% payout ratio, underscoring dividend sustainability.
Emerging Market Growth Push
MUFG’s $4.4 billion stake in India’s Shriram Finance signals a focused expansion into high‑growth emerging markets. The group also maintains significant stakes in Southeast Asian banks, broadening its global footprint.
Digital Banking Revamp
The bank is launching a new digital brand for individual financial services and revamping its mobile banking app to enhance client acquisition. Concurrently, it is reorganizing retail banking operations and accelerating non‑core disposals to improve efficiency.
Institutional Accumulation & EPS Beat
MUFG recently reported earnings per share that exceeded analyst expectations, boosting investor confidence. Institutional investors such as Tudor Investment Corp and JPMorgan Chase have increased their positions, reflecting growing market support.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MUFG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$18.39
52W Range Position
78%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$12.24
+50.2% from the low
52-Week High
$20.15
-8.7% from the high
1 Month
+4.61%
3 Month
-3.92%
YTD
+15.2%
1 Year
+48.8%
3Y CAGR
+42.8%
5Y CAGR
+26.8%
10Y CAGR
+15.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MUFG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
0.1x
vs 9.5x median
-99% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.0%
vs -1.2% median
+424% above peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MUF MUFG Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. | $208.0B | 0.1x | +4.0% | — | Buy | — |
SMF SMFG Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. | $139.4B | 0.1x | +1.0% | — | Hold | — |
MFG MFG Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. | $108.9B | 0.1x | -1.2% | — | Hold | +13.0% |
DB DB Deutsche Bank AG | $61.3B | 9.5x | -13.8% | — | Hold | -53.6% |
BBV BBVA Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. | $124.5B | 10.9x | +5.1% | — | Buy | — |
ING ING ING Groep N.V. | $86.2B | 12.5x | -24.5% | — | Buy | -24.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MUFG Dividend and Capital Return
MUFG returns 2.9% total yield, led by a 1.59% dividend, raised 7 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 1.3%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
2.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.3%
Dividend Yield
1.59%
Payout Ratio
28.6%
How MUFG Splits Its Return
Div 1.59%
Buyback 1.3%
Dividend 1.59%Buybacks 1.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$45.78
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
7Y
3Y Div CAGR
39.7%
5Y Div CAGR
15.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$418.5B
Estimated Shares Retired
22.8B
Approx. Share Reduction
195.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
11.6B
At 195.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.22 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.49 | +89.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2024 | $0.26 | +30.4% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2023 | $0.20 | +10.6% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2022 | $0.18 | -14.4% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
FAQ
6 questionsMUFG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (MUFG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (MUFG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 2 analysts covering the stock, 2 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 0 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The bear case scenario is $1684 and the bull case is $9285.
02Is Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (MUFG) stock overvalued in 2026?
MUFG trades at 0.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
03What are the main risks for Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (MUFG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MUFG in 2026 are: (1) Cybersecurity & Info Management — MUFG identifies cyber‑attacks as a top risk and has implemented robust online verification and threat intelligence. (2) Regulatory & Compliance Fines — MUFG Securities EMEA was fined $9. (3) Liquidity & Funding Risk — MUFG could experience impairment of liquidity if it cannot raise funding, faces increased funding costs, or cannot sell assets quickly. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
04What is Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MUFG will report consensus revenue of $12.92T (+4.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $190.60 (+14.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $14.72T in revenue.
05When does Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (MUFG) report its next earnings?
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-15. Consensus expects EPS of $0.24 and revenue of $8.1B. Over recent quarters, MUFG has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
06How much free cash flow does Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. generate?
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (MUFG) generated $0 in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. MUFG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.6% yield) and share repurchases ($418.5B TTM).