SMG trades 46.2% below Wall Street's consensus target of $77.25.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes SMG achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 11.9x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 17 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of September 24, 2026, The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $77.25, based on estimates from 17 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $52.83, this represents a potential upside of +46.2%. The company has a market capitalization of $3.07B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $75.00 to a high of $79.00, representing a 5% spread in expectations. The median target of $77.50 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 9 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,7 rating it Hold, and 1 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The positive sentiment balance indicates moderate optimism about the stock prospects.
From a valuation perspective, SMG trades at a trailing P/E of 21.4x and forward P/E of 11.9x. Analysts expect EPS to grow +253.1% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $27.27, with bear and bull scenarios of $17.18 and $35.93 respectively. Model confidence stands at 45/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 SPBSpectrum Brands Holdings, Inc. | $2.0B | $86.48 | $97.60 | +12.9% | Buy | 13.6x | 21 |
 CENTCentral Garden & Pet Company | $2.5B | $39.49 | $54.00 | +36.7% | Buy | 13.3x | 10 |
 ANDEThe Andersons, Inc. | $2.3B | $67.39 | $96.67 | +43.4% | Buy | 12.3x | 21 |
 AMGNAmgen Inc. | $219.2B | $406.09 | $393.72 | -3.0% | Buy | 17.6x | 41 |
 ICLICL Group Ltd | $6.8B | $5.30 | $6.08 | +14.7% | Hold | 12.6x | 4 |
 NTRNutrien Ltd. | $36.1B | $75.13 | $76.14 | +1.3% | Buy | 15.2x | 33 |
 MOSThe Mosaic Company | $7.7B | $24.37 | $26.44 | +8.5% | Hold | 50.7x | 49 |
 CFCF Industries Holdings, Inc. | $18.5B | $120.67 | $126.17 | +4.6% | Buy | 8.0x | 41 |
 AVDAmerican Vanguard Corporation | $58M | $2.03 | $17.00 | +737.4% | Buy | 5.3x | 13 |
 CTVACorteva, Inc. | $53.8B | $80.45 | $95.22 | +18.4% | Buy | 21.4x | 37 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying SMG stock.
The consensus Wall Street price target for SMG is $77.25, representing 46.2% upside from the current price of $52.83. With 17 analysts covering the stock, this strong upside suggests significant value not yet reflected in today's share price.
SMG has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 17 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 9 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $77.25 implies 46.2% upside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 11.9479x, SMG trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $77.25 implies 46.2% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $79 for SMG, while the most conservative target is $75. The consensus of $77.25 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $36 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
SMG is well covered by analysts, with 17 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 9 have Buy ratings, 7 recommend Hold, and 1 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month SMG stock forecast based on 17 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $77.25, with estimates ranging from $75 (bear case) to $79 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $27, with bear/bull scenarios of $17/$36.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates SMG's fair value at $27 (base case), with a bear case of $17 and bull case of $36. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 45/100.
SMG trades at a forward P/E ratio of 11.9x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 21.4x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Wall Street analysts are very optimistic on SMG, with a "Buy" consensus rating and $77.25 price target (46.2% upside). 9 of 17 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SMG analyst price targets range from $75 to $79, a 5% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $77.25 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $17-$36 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
Live VCP patterns, Cup & Handle overlays, support/resistance, and AI trade plans.
High-probability breakout stocks crossing their pivot across 5 pattern engines.
DCF models, multiple analysis, and analyst estimates.
10-year return with dividends reinvested.
Compare growth, multiples, and margins vs sector.