Upside case
Bull case
$206+114.5%
SO would need investors to value it at roughly 45x earnings — about 24x more generous than today's 21x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
The Southern Company (SO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
33
analysts
10 bullish · 2 bearish · 33 covering SO
Strong Buy
0
Buy
10
Hold
21
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$100
+3.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$37 – $206
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
33
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
21.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $108.1B
SO price targets
Three scenarios for where SO stock could go
Current
~$96
Confidence
59 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $96
Bear
$37
Base
$116
Bull
$206
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$116+20.6%
At 25x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$37-61.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 13x multiple contraction could push SO down roughly 62% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
The Southern Company
SO · NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricDecember year-end
Southern Company is a regulated electric and gas utility that generates, transmits, and distributes electricity and natural gas across the southeastern United States. It makes money primarily through regulated utility operations — collecting rates from approximately 8.7 million electric and gas customers — with additional revenue from wholesale power sales and gas marketing services. Its key advantage is its regulated monopoly status in its service territories, providing stable cash flows and predictable returns on its massive infrastructure investments.
Market Cap
$108.1B
Revenue TTM
$30.2B
Net Income TTM
$4.4B
Net Margin
14.5%
SO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.91/$0.88
Revenue
$7.0B/$6.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.60/$1.51
Revenue
$7.8B/$7.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.55/$0.56
Revenue
$7.0B/$6.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.32/$1.21
Revenue
$8.4B/$8.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.91/$0.88 | +4.0% | $7.0B/$6.4B | +9.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.60/$1.51 | +6.0% | $7.8B/$7.6B | +2.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.55/$0.56 | -1.4% | $7.0B/$6.1B | +14.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.32/$1.21 | +9.1% | $8.4B/$8.1B | +4.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$31.5B
+4.5% YoY
FY2
$33.7B
+6.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.40
+13.7% YoY
FY2
$4.73
+7.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$3.8B
FCF Margin: -12.7%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
SO beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
SO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $10.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Southern Company Gas
50.0%
+13.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Southern Company Gas is the largest disclosed segment at 50.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 13.2% YoY.
SO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $88 — implies -8.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
8.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SO
24.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
In line with benchmark
vs Utilities Trailing P/E
SO
24.5x
vs
Utilities
20.1x
+22% premium
vs SO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
24.5x
vs
5Y Average
22.9x
+7% premium
Forward PE
21.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
+10%
Utilities
17.5x
+20%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
24.5x
S&P 500
25.1x
-3%
Utilities
20.1x
+22%
5Y Avg
22.9x
+7%
PEG Ratio
4.18x
S&P 500
1.72x
+144%
Utilities
1.69x
+147%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
13.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
-15%
Utilities
11.4x
+14%
5Y Avg
13.7x
-5%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.1x
—
Utilities
15.1x
—
5Y Avg
109.0x
—
Price/Sales
3.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+17%
Utilities
2.2x
+70%
5Y Avg
3.1x
+18%
Dividend Yield
2.83%
S&P 500
1.87%
+52%
Utilities
3.06%
-7%
5Y Avg
3.58%
-21%
| Metric | SO | S&P 500 | Utilities | 5Y Avg SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 21.0x | 19.1x | 17.5x+20% | — |
| Trailing PE | 24.5x | 25.1x | 20.1x+22% | 22.9x |
| PEG Ratio | 4.18x | 1.72x+144% | 1.69x+147% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.0x | 15.2x-15% | 11.4x+14% | 13.7x |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.1x | 15.1x | 109.0x |
| Price/Sales | 3.7x | 3.1x+17% | 2.2x+70% | 3.1x+18% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.83% | 1.87% | 3.06% | 3.58% |
SO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSO Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
SO earns 24.1% operating margin on regulated earnings, 2.8% dividend yield. Utilities carry higher leverage than industrials as a structural feature of the business model.
Regulated Operations
Revenue, regulated margins, and earnings
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$30.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+8.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
24.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
14.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.87
Operating Margin
Operating income over revenue — primary regulated earnings signal
24.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.6B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$64.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
Regulated utilities typically operate at 3–5× net debt/FCF — this is structural, not a risk flag.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
11.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.8%
Dividend
2.8%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.72
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
69.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
1.1B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. Utilities operate with structural leverage (3–5× net debt/FCF) due to regulated, predictable cash flows.
Open full ratios pageSO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Debt & Financing
Southern Company’s debt load exceeds its cash and receivables, exposing it to higher debt servicing costs if interest rates rise. Rising rates could compress margins and, if covenants are breached, accelerate debt maturities.
High Risk
Financial & Operational
Shareholder activism can lead to significant expenses and impede strategic execution. The company’s financial operations and accounting practices are under scrutiny, and a deterioration could trigger credit rating downgrades.
Medium
Project Execution
Past infrastructure projects, notably Vogtle and Kemper, have experienced cost overruns and construction delays. These execution risks can inflate capital expenditures and delay revenue recognition.
Medium
Market Volatility & Competition
Volatility in securities markets and interest rates can increase operating costs. Competition in renewable energy adds pressure on pricing and market share.
Lower
Regulatory Environment
The utility industry faces a range of regulatory factors that can affect operations and profitability. Changes in regulations could impose additional compliance costs or alter rate structures.
Lower
Valuation
Analysts suggest Southern Company may be overvalued relative to its earnings potential, implying a higher risk of price correction if earnings do not meet expectations.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Projected 8% Load Growth (2025‑29)
Southern Company forecasts an 8% electric load growth from 2025 to 2029, driven by in‑migration, data centers, and manufacturing activity. This expansion fuels demand for new generation capacity and supports future revenue growth.
9% CAGR Rate Base Expansion
Management targets a 9% compound annual growth rate for its rate base, which is expected to drive regulated earnings expansion. The rate base growth aligns with the company’s capital investment plan and regulatory approvals.
$81B Capital Expenditure Plan (2026‑30)
Southern plans $81 billion in capital expenditures over 2026‑2030, a significant increase from prior periods. The investment is aimed at new generation, transmission, and infrastructure upgrades to support load growth.
10% YoY Revenue Growth
The company has delivered over 10% year‑over‑year revenue growth, reflecting its expanding customer base and higher utilization of assets. This trend supports the outlook for continued top‑line expansion.
3.2% Dividend Yield
Southern offers a solid dividend yield of approximately 3.2%, providing a reliable income stream for investors. The dividend policy reinforces the company’s commitment to returning value to shareholders.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$95.90
52W Range Position
72%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$83.09
+15.4% from the low
52-Week High
$100.84
-4.9% from the high
1 Month
-1.07%
3 Month
+5.29%
YTD
+10.0%
1 Year
+5.3%
3Y CAGR
+8.6%
5Y CAGR
+7.9%
10Y CAGR
+6.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
21.0x
vs 19.0x median
+10% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.5%
vs +5.7% median
-21% below peer median
Net Margin
14.5%
vs 14.1% median
+2% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO SO The Southern Company | $108.1B | 21.0x | +4.5% | 14.5% | Hold | +3.9% |
DUK DUK Duke Energy Corporation | $99.3B | 19.0x | +4.8% | 15.4% | Hold | +6.2% |
D D Dominion Energy, Inc. | $55.4B | 17.6x | +5.7% | 13.5% | Hold | +5.2% |
AEP AEP American Electric Power Company, Inc. | $74.5B | 21.6x | +8.2% | 16.5% | Buy | -0.6% |
EXC EXC Exelon Corporation | $46.6B | 16.2x | +3.7% | 11.6% | Hold | +6.5% |
XEL XEL Xcel Energy Inc. | $50.8B | 19.8x | +6.3% | 14.1% | Buy | +11.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SO Dividend and Capital Return
SO returns 2.8% total yield, led by a 2.83% dividend, raised 25 consecutive years.
Dividend WatchFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
2.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
2.83%
Payout Ratio
69.5%
How SO Splits Its Return
Div 2.83%
Dividend 2.83%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.72
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
25Y
3Y Div CAGR
2.9%
5Y Div CAGR
3.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.1B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.50 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.94 | +2.8% | 0.0% | 3.1% |
| 2024 | $2.86 | +2.9% | 0.0% | 3.3% |
| 2023 | $2.78 | +3.0% | 0.0% | 3.9% |
| 2022 | $2.70 | +3.1% | 0.0% | 3.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsSO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is The Southern Company (SO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
The Southern Company (SO) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 33 analysts covering the stock, 10 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 21 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $100, implying +3.9% from the current price of $96. The bear case scenario is $37 and the bull case is $206.
02What is the SO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SO is $100 based on 33 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $112 (+16.8% from today), and the low-end target is $76 (-20.8%). The base case model target is $116.
03Is The Southern Company (SO) stock overvalued in 2026?
SO trades at 21.0x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for The Southern Company (SO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SO in 2026 are: (1) Debt & Financing — Southern Company’s debt load exceeds its cash and receivables, exposing it to higher debt servicing costs if interest rates rise. (2) Financial & Operational — Shareholder activism can lead to significant expenses and impede strategic execution. (3) Project Execution — Past infrastructure projects, notably Vogtle and Kemper, have experienced cost overruns and construction delays. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is The Southern Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SO will report consensus revenue of $31.5B (+4.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.40 (+13.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $33.7B in revenue.
06When does The Southern Company (SO) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for SO is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does The Southern Company generate?
The Southern Company (SO) had a free cash outflow of $3.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 12.6%. SO returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.8% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).