Upside case
Bull case
$158+25.9%
DUK would need investors to value it at roughly 24x earnings — about 5x more generous than today's 19x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
31
analysts
12 bullish · 0 bearish · 31 covering DUK
Strong Buy
0
Buy
12
Hold
19
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$135
+7.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$86 – $158
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
31
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
18.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $97.7B
DUK price targets
Three scenarios for where DUK stock could go
Current
~$126
Confidence
62 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $126
Bear
$86
Base
$144
Bull
$158
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$144+14.9%
At 22x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$86-31.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 6x multiple contraction could push DUK down roughly 32% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Duke Energy Corporation
DUK · NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricDecember year-end
Duke Energy is a regulated electric and gas utility serving customers across six states in the Southeast and Midwest. It makes money primarily through regulated rate-based returns on its electric utility infrastructure (~70% of revenue) and gas distribution operations (~20%), with additional income from commercial renewable energy projects. Its key advantage is its monopoly status as a regulated utility in its service territories, which provides stable, predictable returns through government-approved rate structures.
Market Cap
$97.7B
Revenue TTM
$33.3B
Net Income TTM
$5.1B
Net Margin
15.4%
DUK Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.25/$1.18
Revenue
$7.5B/$7.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.81/$1.76
Revenue
$8.7B/$8.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.50/$1.49
Revenue
$7.9B/$7.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.93/$1.87
Revenue
$9.2B/$8.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.25/$1.18 | +5.9% | $7.5B/$7.4B | +1.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.81/$1.76 | +2.8% | $8.7B/$8.6B | +1.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.50/$1.49 | +0.7% | $7.9B/$7.4B | +6.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.93/$1.87 | +3.2% | $9.2B/$8.4B | +8.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$34.1B
+2.4% YoY
FY2
$36.0B
+5.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$6.82
+3.5% YoY
FY2
$7.25
+6.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$6.6B
FCF Margin: 19.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
DUK beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
DUK Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $1.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Other Revenues
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Other Revenues is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
DUK Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $156 — implies +21.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
21.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
DUK
19.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
21% discount
vs Utilities Trailing P/E
DUK
19.9x
vs
Utilities
19.7x
In line with benchmark
vs DUK 5Y Avg P/E
Today
19.9x
vs
5Y Average
21.8x
9% discount
Forward PE
18.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
-2%
Utilities
17.2x
+9%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
19.9x
S&P 500
25.2x
-21%
Utilities
19.7x
+1%
5Y Avg
21.8x
-9%
PEG Ratio
0.67x
S&P 500
1.75x
-62%
Utilities
1.73x
-61%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
12.6x
S&P 500
15.3x
-17%
Utilities
11.5x
+10%
5Y Avg
12.4x
+2%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Utilities
15.4x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
3.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-3%
Utilities
2.2x
+39%
5Y Avg
2.8x
+7%
Dividend Yield
3.38%
S&P 500
1.88%
+80%
Utilities
3.07%
+10%
5Y Avg
3.94%
-14%
| Metric | DUK | S&P 500 | Utilities | 5Y Avg DUK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 18.7x | 19.1x | 17.2x | — |
| Trailing PE | 19.9x | 25.2x-21% | 19.7x | 21.8x |
| PEG Ratio | 0.67x | 1.75x-62% | 1.73x-61% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.6x | 15.3x-17% | 11.5x | 12.4x |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 15.4x | — |
| Price/Sales | 3.0x | 3.1x | 2.2x+39% | 2.8x |
| Dividend Yield | 3.38% | 1.88% | 3.07% | 3.94% |
DUK trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolDUK Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
DUK earns 27.0% operating margin on regulated earnings, 3.4% dividend yield. Utilities carry higher leverage than industrials as a structural feature of the business model.
Regulated Operations
Revenue, regulated margins, and earnings
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$33.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+7.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
27.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
15.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.60
Operating Margin
Operating income over revenue — primary regulated earnings signal
27.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$245M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$90.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
13.7× FCF
Regulated utilities typically operate at 3–5× net debt/FCF — this is structural, not a risk flag.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
9.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.4%
Dividend
3.4%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.25
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
66.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
778M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. Utilities operate with structural leverage (3–5× net debt/FCF) due to regulated, predictable cash flows.
Open full ratios pageDUK Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Environmental Regulations
Duke Energy must comply with numerous environmental laws covering emissions, water quality, and waste management, driving significant capital expenditures and higher operating costs. These regulations can also expose the company to environmental liabilities if compliance is inadequate.
High Risk
Storm Restoration Costs
The company may not fully recover restoration expenses from regulatory channels after severe weather events, such as hurricanes, which can inflict extensive infrastructure damage. These unrecovered costs can materially impact financial results.
High Risk
High Debt Levels
As of September 30, 2025, Duke Energy’s long‑term debt stands at approximately $79.3 billion, creating high leverage that elevates borrowing costs and limits financial flexibility. The elevated debt‑to‑equity ratio further heightens financial risk.
High Risk
Clean Energy Transition Costs
Transitioning to clean energy requires substantial new investment, and the company’s profitability hinges on regulatory approval for rate increases to fund these initiatives. Failure to secure favorable decisions could strain margins.
High Risk
Interest Rate Sensitivity
Rising interest rates raise borrowing costs, potentially limiting Duke Energy’s ability to finance its capital plan and affecting the rates charged to customers. This sensitivity can erode earnings during periods of tightening monetary policy.
Medium
Market Disruptions
Economic downturns, geopolitical risks, or unfavorable capital market conditions can increase borrowing costs or restrict access to financial markets, impacting the company’s funding strategy.
Medium
Equity Issuance
Planned significant equity issuance could dilute existing shareholders’ value, reducing earnings per share and potentially affecting the stock price.
Medium
Customer Growth and Demand
The company’s financial performance is tied to customer growth and electricity and natural gas demand; stagnation or decline in demand can negatively affect results.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why DUK Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Largest Five-Year Capital Plan
Duke Energy increased its five-year capital plan to $103 billion, the largest of any regulated U.S. utility. The investment focuses on grid infrastructure and power generation to meet growing regional demand and enhance reliability.
Projected EPS Growth 5-7%
The company forecasts 5% to 7% earnings per share growth through 2030, supported by its large capital plan, strong balance sheet, and contracted demand from sectors like AI and advanced manufacturing. For 2026, Duke Energy expects an adjusted profit between $6.55 and $6.80 per share.
Stable Regulated Utility Earnings
Duke's regulated utilities provide a stable source of earnings. The focus on regulated infrastructure, operational safety, and meeting long-term regional energy needs is underscored by recent approvals for new natural gas plants.
Data Center & AI Power Demand
Duke Energy has secured significant service agreements for data center customers, with a substantial pipeline of potential future clients. This demand is expected to accelerate power consumption and drive growth.
Solid 3.3% Dividend Yield
The company offers a solid dividend yield of approximately 3.3%, providing a reliable income stream for investors.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
DUK Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$125.54
52W Range Position
62%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$111.22
+12.9% from the low
52-Week High
$134.49
-6.7% from the high
1 Month
-4.47%
3 Month
+3.02%
YTD
+6.9%
1 Year
+2.1%
3Y CAGR
+8.3%
5Y CAGR
+4.5%
10Y CAGR
+4.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
DUK vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
18.7x
vs 17.2x median
+9% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.4%
vs +4.5% median
-46% below peer median
Net Margin
15.4%
vs 13.5% median
+14% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DUK DUK Duke Energy Corporation | $97.7B | 18.7x | +2.4% | 15.4% | Hold | +7.9% |
SO SO The Southern Company | $105.4B | 20.4x | +4.5% | 14.5% | Hold | +6.5% |
D D Dominion Energy, Inc. | $54.2B | 17.2x | +5.7% | 13.5% | Hold | +7.5% |
EXC EXC Exelon Corporation | $46.1B | 15.8x | +3.7% | 11.2% | Hold | +9.2% |
AEP AEP American Electric Power Company, Inc. | $72.0B | 20.9x | +6.3% | 16.5% | Buy | +2.8% |
PCG PCG PG&E Corporation | $35.6B | 9.8x | +3.4% | 11.4% | Buy | +42.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
DUK Dividend and Capital Return
DUK returns 3.3% total yield, led by a 3.33% dividend, raised 19 consecutive years.
Dividend WatchFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
3.33%
Payout Ratio
66.4%
How DUK Splits Its Return
Div 3.33%
Dividend 3.33%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.25
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
19Y
3Y Div CAGR
2.0%
5Y Div CAGR
2.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
778M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.06 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $4.22 | +1.9% | 0.0% | 3.6% |
| 2024 | $4.14 | +2.0% | 0.0% | 3.9% |
| 2023 | $4.06 | +2.0% | 0.0% | 4.3% |
| 2022 | $3.98 | +2.1% | 0.0% | 4.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsDUK Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 31 analysts covering the stock, 12 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 19 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $135, implying +7.9% from the current price of $126. The bear case scenario is $86 and the bull case is $158.
02What is the DUK stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for DUK is $135 based on 31 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $142 (+13.1% from today), and the low-end target is $126 (+0.4%). The base case model target is $144.
03Is Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) stock overvalued in 2026?
DUK trades at 18.7x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for DUK in 2026 are: (1) Environmental Regulations — Duke Energy must comply with numerous environmental laws covering emissions, water quality, and waste management, driving significant capital expenditures and higher operating costs. (2) Storm Restoration Costs — The company may not fully recover restoration expenses from regulatory channels after severe weather events, such as hurricanes, which can inflict extensive infrastructure damage. (3) High Debt Levels — As of September 30, 2025, Duke Energy’s long‑term debt stands at approximately $79. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Duke Energy Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates DUK will report consensus revenue of $34.1B (+2.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $6.82 (+3.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $36.0B in revenue.
06When does Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for DUK is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Duke Energy Corporation generate?
Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) generated $6.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 19.8%. DUK returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.3% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).