Upside case
Bull case
$63+37.1%
EXC would need investors to value it at roughly 22x earnings — about 6x more generous than today's 16x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Exelon Corporation (EXC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
35
analysts
14 bullish · 2 bearish · 35 covering EXC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
14
Hold
19
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$49
+6.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$18 – $63
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
35
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
16.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $46.6B
EXC price targets
Three scenarios for where EXC stock could go
Current
~$46
Confidence
60 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $46
Bear
$18
Base
$51
Bull
$63
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$51+9.7%
This is close to how the market is already pricing EXC — at roughly 18x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$18-60.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 10x multiple contraction could push EXC down roughly 61% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Exelon Corporation
EXC · NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated ElectricDecember year-end
Exelon is a major regulated electric utility that operates one of the largest clean energy generation fleets in the U.S., primarily from nuclear power. It makes money through regulated electricity distribution and transmission services—which provide stable cash flows—and wholesale power generation from its nuclear, renewable, and fossil fuel plants. Its key advantage is its massive scale as the largest nuclear operator in the U.S., giving it cost advantages and regulatory expertise in clean energy markets.
Market Cap
$46.6B
Revenue TTM
$24.3B
Net Income TTM
$2.8B
Net Margin
11.6%
EXC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.92/$0.88
Revenue
$6.7B/$6.5B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.39/$0.37
Revenue
$5.4B/$5.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.86/$0.78
Revenue
$6.7B/$6.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.59/$0.55
Revenue
$5.4B/$5.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.92/$0.88 | +4.9% | $6.7B/$6.5B | +3.0% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.39/$0.37 | +6.2% | $5.4B/$5.4B | +0.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.86/$0.78 | +10.5% | $6.7B/$6.4B | +4.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.59/$0.55 | +7.9% | $5.4B/$5.4B | +0.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$25.2B
+3.7% YoY
FY2
$26.2B
+3.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.87
+3.0% YoY
FY2
$2.99
+4.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$1.6B
FCF Margin: -6.6%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.88
Expected Revenue
$7.0B
EXC beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
EXC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $28.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Commonwealth Edison Co
25.6%
-11.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Commonwealth Edison Co is the largest disclosed segment at 25.6% of FY 2025 revenue, down 11.6% YoY.
EXC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $52 — implies +12.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
12.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
EXC
16.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
33% discount
vs Utilities Trailing P/E
EXC
16.9x
vs
Utilities
20.1x
16% discount
vs EXC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
16.9x
vs
5Y Average
18.2x
7% discount
Forward PE
16.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
-15%
Utilities
17.5x
-8%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
16.9x
S&P 500
25.1x
-33%
Utilities
20.1x
-16%
5Y Avg
18.2x
-7%
PEG Ratio
2.68x
S&P 500
1.72x
+56%
Utilities
1.69x
+58%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
-28%
Utilities
11.4x
-4%
5Y Avg
10.5x
+5%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.1x
—
Utilities
15.1x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
1.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-38%
Utilities
2.2x
-11%
5Y Avg
1.9x
+0%
Dividend Yield
3.46%
S&P 500
1.87%
+85%
Utilities
3.06%
+13%
5Y Avg
3.31%
+4%
| Metric | EXC | S&P 500 | Utilities | 5Y Avg EXC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 16.2x | 19.1x-15% | 17.5x | — |
| Trailing PE | 16.9x | 25.1x-33% | 20.1x-16% | 18.2x |
| PEG Ratio | 2.68x | 1.72x+56% | 1.69x+58% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.0x | 15.2x-28% | 11.4x | 10.5x |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.1x | 15.1x | — |
| Price/Sales | 1.9x | 3.1x-38% | 2.2x-11% | 1.9x |
| Dividend Yield | 3.46% | 1.87% | 3.06% | 3.31% |
EXC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolEXC Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
EXC earns 20.8% operating margin on regulated earnings, 3.5% dividend yield. Utilities carry higher leverage than industrials as a structural feature of the business model.
Regulated Operations
Revenue, regulated margins, and earnings
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$24.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+6.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
20.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
11.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.78
Operating Margin
Operating income over revenue — primary regulated earnings signal
20.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
—
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$49.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
Regulated utilities typically operate at 3–5× net debt/FCF — this is structural, not a risk flag.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
10.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.5%
Dividend
3.5%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.60
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
1.0B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. Utilities operate with structural leverage (3–5× net debt/FCF) due to regulated, predictable cash flows.
Open full ratios pageEXC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Probability of Bankruptcy
Exelon's financial position and macroeconomic pressures yield a 21% chance of bankruptcy in the next two years. This risk could trigger asset sales, restructuring, or loss of investor confidence.
High Risk
Rate Case Outcomes
Exelon's profitability hinges on favorable rate approvals. Unfavorable rate decisions could reduce expected returns, curtail growth, and impair operational efficiency.
High Risk
Capital Expenditure Outlook
Projected $29B capex through 2025 for grid modernization may be constrained, while negative free cash flow and ongoing share dilution threaten long‑term value creation. Reduced capex could limit future growth.
Medium
Interest Rate Risk
Unexpected rises in interest rates could increase borrowing costs, squeeze margins, and diminish investment viability. Exelon's debt profile makes it sensitive to rate changes.
Medium
Governance Deficiencies
ComEd's admission of providing jobs and subcontracts to public officials indicates material governance and internal control weaknesses. This could lead to regulatory penalties and reputational harm.
Lower
Stagnant ROE & Returns
ROE has declined or stagnated since 2019, and shareholder returns have been lackluster post‑Constellation spin‑off. Limited upside potential may deter investors.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why EXC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Strong Revenue & Profit Growth
Exelon’s revenue rose 5.3% year‑over‑year to $24.3 billion, while net income climbed 13% and gross profit increased 11%. These gains demonstrate robust top‑line expansion and cost control in a regulated environment.
Solid Operating Margins
The company maintains a 21.2% operating margin and an 11.4% net profit margin, indicating efficient management of operating expenses and a healthy profitability profile relative to peers.
EPS Beat & Earnings Momentum
In Q4 2025, Exelon reported an EPS of $0.59 versus analyst expectations of $0.53, an 11.32% beat. This earnings outperformance signals strong cash flow generation and potential upside for investors.
Attractive Dividend Sustainability
Exelon offers a 3.40% dividend yield backed by a 61.54% payout ratio, suggesting the dividend is sustainable and provides a steady income stream for shareholders.
Stable Customer Base & Sector Outperformance
Serving over 10.7 million customers across six regulated utilities, Exelon enjoys a predictable revenue stream. The company has outperformed the utilities sector with a nearly 15% return year‑to‑date, underscoring its competitive advantage.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
EXC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$46.18
52W Range Position
50%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$41.71
+10.7% from the low
52-Week High
$50.65
-8.8% from the high
1 Month
-5.64%
3 Month
+4.81%
YTD
+5.1%
1 Year
+0.4%
3Y CAGR
+2.5%
5Y CAGR
+8.3%
10Y CAGR
+6.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
EXC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
16.2x
vs 19.0x median
-15% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.7%
vs +4.8% median
-22% below peer median
Net Margin
11.6%
vs 14.5% median
-20% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EXC EXC Exelon Corporation | $46.6B | 16.2x | +3.7% | 11.6% | Hold | +6.5% |
DUK DUK Duke Energy Corporation | $99.3B | 19.0x | +4.8% | 15.4% | Hold | +6.2% |
SO SO The Southern Company | $108.1B | 21.0x | +4.5% | 14.5% | Hold | +3.9% |
D D Dominion Energy, Inc. | $55.4B | 17.6x | +5.7% | 13.5% | Hold | +5.2% |
AEP AEP American Electric Power Company, Inc. | $74.5B | 21.6x | +8.2% | 16.5% | Buy | -0.6% |
PCG PCG PG&E Corporation | $36.0B | 9.9x | +3.4% | 11.4% | Buy | +40.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
EXC Dividend and Capital Return
EXC returns 3.5% total yield, led by a 3.46% dividend.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
3.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
3.46%
Payout Ratio
—
How EXC Splits Its Return
Div 3.46%
Dividend 3.46%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.60
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
5.8%
5Y Div CAGR
7.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.0B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.84 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.60 | +5.3% | 0.0% | 3.7% |
| 2024 | $1.52 | +5.6% | 0.0% | 2.1% |
| 2023 | $1.44 | +6.7% | 0.0% | 4.0% |
| 2022 | $1.35 | +23.5% | 0.0% | 3.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsEXC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Exelon Corporation (EXC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Exelon Corporation (EXC) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 35 analysts covering the stock, 14 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 19 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $49, implying +6.5% from the current price of $46. The bear case scenario is $18 and the bull case is $63.
02What is the EXC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for EXC is $49 based on 35 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $55 (+19.1% from today), and the low-end target is $43 (-6.9%). The base case model target is $51.
03Is Exelon Corporation (EXC) stock overvalued in 2026?
EXC trades at 16.2x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Exelon Corporation (EXC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for EXC in 2026 are: (1) Probability of Bankruptcy — Exelon's financial position and macroeconomic pressures yield a 21% chance of bankruptcy in the next two years. (2) Rate Case Outcomes — Exelon's profitability hinges on favorable rate approvals. (3) Capital Expenditure Outlook — Projected $29B capex through 2025 for grid modernization may be constrained, while negative free cash flow and ongoing share dilution threaten long‑term value creation. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Exelon Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates EXC will report consensus revenue of $25.2B (+3.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.87 (+3.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $26.2B in revenue.
06When does Exelon Corporation (EXC) report its next earnings?
Exelon Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $0.88 and revenue of $7.0B. Over recent quarters, EXC has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Exelon Corporation generate?
Exelon Corporation (EXC) had a free cash outflow of $1.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 6.6%. EXC returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.5% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).