Upside case
Bull case
$207+52.9%
ALLE would need investors to value it at roughly 24x earnings — about 8x more generous than today's 15x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Allegion plc (ALLE) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
23
analysts
8 bullish · 0 bearish · 23 covering ALLE
Strong Buy
0
Buy
8
Hold
15
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$173
+27.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$103 – $207
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
23
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
15.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.6B
ALLE price targets
Three scenarios for where ALLE stock could go
Current
~$135
Confidence
70 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $135
Bear
$103
Base
$163
Bull
$207
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$163+20.7%
At 19x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$103-24.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push ALLE down roughly 24% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Allegion plc
ALLE · NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesDecember year-end
Allegion is a global manufacturer of mechanical and electronic security products for doors and access points. It generates revenue primarily through sales of door hardware—including locks, closers, and electronic access systems—to commercial, institutional, and residential markets via distribution and retail channels. The company's competitive advantage lies in its portfolio of trusted brands—like Schlage, LCN, and Von Duprin—which have established leadership positions across various security product categories.
Market Cap
$11.6B
Revenue TTM
$4.2B
Net Income TTM
$634M
Net Margin
15.2%
ALLE Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.04/$1.99
Revenue
$1.0B/$1.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.30/$2.21
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.94/$2.01
Revenue
$1.0B/$1.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.80/$1.88
Revenue
$1.0B/$1.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.04/$1.99 | +2.5% | $1.0B/$1.0B | +2.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.30/$2.21 | +4.1% | $1.1B/$1.0B | +3.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.94/$2.01 | -3.5% | $1.0B/$1.0B | -0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.80/$1.88 | -4.3% | $1.0B/$1.0B | +0.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.5B
+7.1% YoY
FY2
$4.8B
+7.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$8.26
+12.8% YoY
FY2
$8.98
+8.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$704M
FCF Margin: 16.9%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
ALLE beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
ALLE Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $4.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product
93.2%
+7.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
75.0%
+6.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Product is the largest disclosed segment at 93.2% of FY 2025 revenue, up 7.7% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 75.0%, up 6.7% YoY.
ALLE Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $172 — implies +26.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
26.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ALLE
18.2x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
28% discount
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
ALLE
18.2x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
30% discount
vs ALLE 5Y Avg P/E
Today
18.2x
vs
5Y Average
21.3x
14% discount
Forward PE
15.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
-19%
Industrials
20.8x
-26%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
18.2x
S&P 500
25.2x
-28%
Industrials
25.9x
-30%
5Y Avg
21.3x
-14%
PEG Ratio
1.07x
S&P 500
1.75x
-39%
Industrials
1.59x
-33%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
13.7x
S&P 500
15.3x
-10%
Industrials
13.9x
-1%
5Y Avg
16.7x
-18%
Price/FCF
17.0x
S&P 500
21.3x
-20%
Industrials
20.6x
-18%
5Y Avg
22.4x
-24%
Price/Sales
2.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-9%
Industrials
1.6x
+80%
5Y Avg
3.3x
-13%
Dividend Yield
1.50%
S&P 500
1.88%
-20%
Industrials
1.24%
+21%
5Y Avg
1.35%
+11%
| Metric | ALLE | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg ALLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 15.4x | 19.1x-19% | 20.8x-26% | — |
| Trailing PE | 18.2x | 25.2x-28% | 25.9x-30% | 21.3x-14% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.07x | 1.75x-39% | 1.59x-33% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.7x | 15.3x-10% | 13.9x | 16.7x-18% |
| Price/FCF | 17.0x | 21.3x-20% | 20.6x-18% | 22.4x-24% |
| Price/Sales | 2.9x | 3.1x | 1.6x+80% | 3.3x-13% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.50% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 1.35% |
ALLE trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolALLE Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
ALLE generates $704M in free cash flow at a 16.9% margin — 18.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+8.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
45.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
20.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
15.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$7.32
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$704M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
16.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
18.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
12.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$356M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.7× FCF
~2.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
32.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.2%
Dividend
1.5%
Buyback
0.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$80M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.03
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
27.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
86M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageALLE Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Equity risk
The risk that stock prices or stock indices will decline, influenced by overall market sentiment and economic downturns. This could significantly impact ALLE's stock performance, especially during periods of economic instability.
High Risk
Debt stress
High levels of debt within economies or corporations can pose significant risks. If ALLE faces increased borrowing costs or defaults, it could adversely affect its financial health and stock valuation.
Medium
Interest rate risk
Changes in interest rates can negatively affect investment values, including ALLE's stock. A rise in interest rates may lead to higher borrowing costs and reduced consumer spending, impacting the company's growth.
Medium
Global instability
Geopolitical events and international conflicts can disrupt markets and supply chains. Such instability may affect ALLE's operations and profitability, particularly if it relies on global markets for revenue.
Lower
Liquidity risk
The risk that ALLE's stock cannot be bought or sold promptly without a significant price impact. This could limit investors' ability to exit positions during market volatility.
Lower
Valuation risk
There is a risk that ALLE's stock price may be too high relative to its underlying value, potentially leading to a correction. Investors should be cautious if the stock is trading at elevated multiples compared to industry peers.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ALLE Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Brand Portfolio and Market Position
Allegion owns well-established brands like Schlage and Von Duprin, which are leaders in the security products market. This strong brand recognition and market presence contribute to customer loyalty and repeat business.
Financial Health and Profitability
The company demonstrates strong financial health with high profitability ranks and efficient cost management. Its GF Score™ of 98/100 indicates strong potential for long-term returns, and its GF Value™ suggests it is currently undervalued.
Dividend Growth
Allegion has a history of increasing its dividend for 13 consecutive years, with a strong 10-year dividend growth rate of 17.7%. This consistent dividend growth reflects the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Revenue Growth
The company reported a 9.7% increase in net revenues for Q1 2026, driven by acquisitions and improved pricing. This growth indicates a positive trajectory in sales performance.
Share Repurchase Program
Allegion's board has approved a $500 million share repurchase program, which can signal management's belief that the stock is undervalued. This initiative may enhance shareholder value and support stock price appreciation.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ALLE Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$135.33
52W Range Position
8%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$131.25
+3.1% from the low
52-Week High
$183.11
-26.1% from the high
1 Month
-3.46%
3 Month
-24.72%
YTD
-15.9%
1 Year
-3.3%
3Y CAGR
+7.9%
5Y CAGR
-0.7%
10Y CAGR
+7.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ALLE vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
15.4x
vs 17.8x median
-13% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.1%
vs -0.8% median
+943% above peer median
Net Margin
15.2%
vs 7.8% median
+94% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALL ALLE Allegion plc | $11.6B | 15.4x | +7.1% | 15.2% | Hold | +27.5% |
ASG ASGN ASGN Incorporated | $895M | 5.8x | -2.1% | 2.9% | Hold | +79.4% |
MAS MAS Masco Corporation | $14.5B | 16.9x | -1.1% | 10.9% | Buy | +14.5% |
SWK SWK Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. | $12.6B | 17.8x | -0.8% | 2.4% | Hold | +10.0% |
SAI SAIA Saia, Inc. | $12.0B | 42.3x | +4.5% | 7.8% | Buy | -5.9% |
TRE TREX Trex Company, Inc. | $4.2B | 24.4x | +2.9% | 16.2% | Hold | +11.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ALLE Dividend and Capital Return
ALLE returns 2.2% total yield, led by a 1.50% dividend, raised 12 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 0.7%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.7%
Dividend Yield
1.50%
Payout Ratio
27.2%
How ALLE Splits Its Return
Div 1.50%
Buyback 0.7%
Dividend 1.50%Buybacks 0.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.03
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
12Y
3Y Div CAGR
7.5%
5Y Div CAGR
9.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$80M
Estimated Shares Retired
591.1K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
86M
At 0.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.10 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.04 | +6.3% | 0.6% | 1.9% |
| 2024 | $1.92 | +6.7% | 1.9% | 3.4% |
| 2023 | $1.80 | +9.8% | 0.5% | 2.0% |
| 2022 | $1.64 | +13.9% | 0.7% | 2.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsALLE Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Allegion plc (ALLE) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Allegion plc (ALLE) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 23 analysts covering the stock, 8 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 15 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $173, implying +27.5% from the current price of $135. The bear case scenario is $103 and the bull case is $207.
02What is the ALLE stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ALLE is $173 based on 23 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $180 (+33.0% from today), and the low-end target is $165 (+21.9%). The base case model target is $163.
03Is Allegion plc (ALLE) stock overvalued in 2026?
ALLE trades at 15.4x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Allegion plc (ALLE) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ALLE in 2026 are: (1) Equity risk — The risk that stock prices or stock indices will decline, influenced by overall market sentiment and economic downturns. (2) Debt stress — High levels of debt within economies or corporations can pose significant risks. (3) Interest rate risk — Changes in interest rates can negatively affect investment values, including ALLE's stock. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Allegion plc's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ALLE will report consensus revenue of $4.5B (+7.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $8.26 (+12.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.8B in revenue.
06When does Allegion plc (ALLE) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for ALLE is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Allegion plc generate?
Allegion plc (ALLE) generated $704M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 16.9%. ALLE returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.5% yield) and share repurchases ($80M TTM).