Upside case
Bull case
$2786+5216.6%
TCOM would need investors to value it at roughly 100x earnings — about 98x more generous than today's 2x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
43
analysts
31 bullish · 2 bearish · 43 covering TCOM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
31
Hold
10
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$75
+43.1% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $2786
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
43
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
1.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $34.2B
TCOM price targets
Three scenarios for where TCOM stock could go
Current
~$52
Confidence
41 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $52
Base
$748
Bull
$2786
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$748+1326.6%
At 27x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Trip.com Group Limited
TCOM · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalTravel ServicesDecember year-end
Trip.com Group is a comprehensive online travel agency that provides booking services for flights, hotels, tours, and other travel-related products across China and international markets. It generates revenue primarily through commissions from hotel bookings and airline ticket sales — which together form the bulk of its income — supplemented by packaged tour sales and corporate travel management fees. The company's competitive advantage lies in its dominant position in China's massive travel market, extensive supplier relationships, and integrated platform that offers a full suite of travel services.
Market Cap
$34.2B
Revenue TTM
$59.8B
Net Income TTM
$31.2B
Net Margin
52.2%
TCOM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
80%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
90%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+43.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.82/$0.86
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.9B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.01/$0.98
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.87/$1.15
Revenue
$2.6B/$2.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.71/$0.72
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.82/$0.86 | -4.7% | $1.9B/$1.9B | -0.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.01/$0.98 | +3.1% | $2.1B/$2.0B | +1.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.87/$1.15 | +236.5% | $2.6B/$2.1B | +23.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.71/$0.72 | -1.4% | $2.2B/$2.1B | +3.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$72.5B
+21.4% YoY
FY2
$87.1B
+20.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$41.58
-7.3% YoY
FY2
$51.78
+24.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$0
Next Earnings
May 18, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.85
Expected Revenue
$2.3B
TCOM beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
TCOM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $53.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Accommodation Reservation Services
40.5%
+192.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
CHINA
85.5%
+179.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Accommodation Reservation Services is the largest disclosed segment at 40.5% of FY 2024 revenue, up 192.1% YoY.
CHINA is the largest reported region at 85.5%, up 179.7% YoY.
TCOM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $419 — implies +672.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
672.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TCOM
14.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
43% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
TCOM
14.4x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
25% discount
vs TCOM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
14.4x
vs
5Y Average
7.1x
+103% premium
Forward PE
1.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
-90%
Consumer Cyclical
15.1x
-88%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
14.4x
S&P 500
25.1x
-43%
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
-25%
5Y Avg
7.1x
+103%
PEG Ratio
0.81x
S&P 500
1.72x
-53%
Consumer Cyclical
0.91x
-11%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
15.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
-2%
Consumer Cyclical
11.3x
+32%
5Y Avg
19.5x
-23%
Price/FCF
12.3x
S&P 500
21.1x
-42%
Consumer Cyclical
14.6x
-16%
5Y Avg
5.5x
+123%
Price/Sales
4.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+40%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+512%
5Y Avg
0.9x
+397%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.23%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | TCOM | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg TCOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 1.9x | 19.1x-90% | 15.1x-88% | — |
| Trailing PE | 14.4x | 25.1x-43% | 19.3x-25% | 7.1x+103% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.81x | 1.72x-53% | 0.91x-11% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.0x | 15.2x | 11.3x+32% | 19.5x-23% |
| Price/FCF | 12.3x | 21.1x-42% | 14.6x-16% | 5.5x+123% |
| Price/Sales | 4.4x | 3.1x+40% | 0.7x+512% | 0.9x+397% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 2.23% | — |
TCOM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTCOM Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
Key financial metrics for TCOM are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$59.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+17.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
80.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
26.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
52.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$44.85
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$0
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
—
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
8.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$48.4B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$8.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
18.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.9%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.2B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
689M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTCOM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory Scrutiny
Trip.com is under investigation by China's State Administration for Market Regulation for alleged monopolistic practices involving its AI pricing tool. The probe has triggered a sharp stock price decline and multiple securities class action lawsuits, potentially leading to fines and operational restrictions.
High Risk
Liquidity & Capital
The company may fail to generate sufficient revenue or maintain adequate cash reserves, jeopardizing its ability to fund operations and capital expenditures. A shortfall could force reliance on external financing, increasing debt and diluting shareholder value.
Medium
Debt Exposure
Trip.com has incurred substantial indebtedness and may take on additional debt in the future. Rising leverage could strain financial flexibility and elevate interest costs, impacting profitability.
Medium
Merchant Pricing Control
Hotel merchants report losing pricing autonomy due to the AI tool, which forces participation in promotions and penalizes non-compliant merchants. This could erode merchant relationships and reduce revenue per booking.
Medium
Profitability Compression
Increased competition and regulatory actions could compress Trip.com's take rate or raise marketing expenses, leading to margin compression. Persistent pressure may erode earnings and limit growth prospects.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TCOM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Market Dominance & Untapped Travel Base
Trip.com is the leading travel service provider in China, positioned to capture a vast underpenetrated domestic market. Hundreds of millions of Chinese citizens have yet to travel, offering a substantial customer base for future expansion.
Global Expansion Leveraging 700M MAUs
The company is actively extending its global footprint using its proprietary Chinese app and algorithm technology. With 700 million Chinese monthly active users, Trip.com can attract international partnerships and benefit from the upcoming Klook IPO.
Robust Financial Health & High Margins
Trip.com boasts a gross margin of 80.58%, operating margin of 25.27%, and profit margin of 53.35%. Its liquidity is strong with a current ratio of 1.55 and a low debt‑to‑equity ratio of 0.18.
Catalysts: Margin Growth & Capital Returns
Potential catalysts include margin improvement through higher‑margin outbound travel and optimized regional operations, as well as increased capital returns via dividends and buybacks following stake sales. These moves could further boost profitability and shareholder value.
Regulatory Resilience & Limited Disruption
Although Trip.com has faced antitrust investigations, historical outcomes in China typically result in fines without lasting business disruption. Analysts believe market reactions to these investigations may have been disproportionate, indicating resilience.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TCOM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$52.40
52W Range Position
13%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$48.48
+8.1% from the low
52-Week High
$78.99
-33.7% from the high
1 Month
+4.61%
3 Month
-8.63%
YTD
-29.7%
1 Year
-13.4%
3Y CAGR
+16.5%
5Y CAGR
+6.4%
10Y CAGR
+1.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TCOM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
1.9x
vs 16.0x median
-88% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+21.4%
vs +10.5% median
+105% above peer median
Net Margin
52.2%
vs 8.8% median
+494% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TCO TCOM Trip.com Group Limited | $34.2B | 1.9x | +21.4% | 52.2% | Buy | +43.1% |
BKN BKNG Booking Holdings Inc. | $129.9B | 16.0x | +10.5% | 22.2% | Buy | +38.2% |
EXP EXPE Expedia Group, Inc. | $32.8B | 12.8x | +9.3% | 8.8% | Hold | +9.5% |
ABN ABNB Airbnb, Inc. | $85.0B | 28.2x | +14.9% | 22.0% | Hold | +4.1% |
TRI TRIP Tripadvisor, Inc. | $1.3B | 7.7x | +6.6% | 2.1% | Hold | +20.2% |
MMY MMYT MakeMyTrip Limited | $4.2B | 68.2x | +26.3% | 5.5% | Buy | +93.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TCOM Dividend and Capital Return
TCOM returns 0.9% annually — null% through dividends and 0.9% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.9%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.2B
Estimated Shares Retired
41M
Approx. Share Reduction
6.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
689M
At 6.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $0.30 | — | — | — |
| 2008 | $0.03 | -11.9% | 0.0% | 6.9% |
| 2007 | $0.03 | +8.6% | 0.0% | 1.8% |
| 2006 | $0.03 | +70.0% | 0.0% | 3.2% |
| 2005 | $0.02 | — | 0.0% | 4.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsTCOM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 43 analysts covering the stock, 31 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $75, implying +43.1% from the current price of $52.
02What is the TCOM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TCOM is $75 based on 43 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $75 (+43.1% from today), and the low-end target is $75 (+43.1%). The base case model target is $748.
03Is Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) stock overvalued in 2026?
TCOM trades at 1.9x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TCOM in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory Scrutiny — Trip. (2) Liquidity & Capital — The company may fail to generate sufficient revenue or maintain adequate cash reserves, jeopardizing its ability to fund operations and capital expenditures. (3) Debt Exposure — Trip. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Trip.com Group Limited's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TCOM will report consensus revenue of $72.5B (+21.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $41.58 (-7.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $87.1B in revenue.
06When does Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) report its next earnings?
Trip.com Group Limited is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-18. Consensus expects EPS of $0.85 and revenue of $2.3B. Over recent quarters, TCOM has beaten EPS estimates 80% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Trip.com Group Limited generate?
Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) generated $0 in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 0.0%. TCOM returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($2.2B TTM).