Upside case
Bull case
$342+657.3%
TCOM would need investors to value it at roughly 12x earnings — about 11x more generous than today's 2x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
43
analysts
31 bullish · 2 bearish · 43 covering TCOM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
31
Hold
10
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$75
+66.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$163 – $342
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
43
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
1.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $28.4B
TCOM price targets
Three scenarios for where TCOM stock could go
Current
~$45
Confidence
61 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $45
Bear
$163
Base
$259
Bull
$342
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$259+474.7%
At 9x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$163+262.1%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push TCOM down roughly 262% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Trip.com Group Limited
TCOM · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalTravel ServicesDecember year-end
Trip.com Group is a comprehensive online travel agency that provides booking services for flights, hotels, tours, and other travel-related products across China and international markets. It generates revenue primarily through commissions from hotel bookings and airline ticket sales — which together form the bulk of its income — supplemented by packaged tour sales and corporate travel management fees. The company's competitive advantage lies in its dominant position in China's massive travel market, extensive supplier relationships, and integrated platform that offers a full suite of travel services.
Market Cap
$28.4B
Revenue TTM
$62.2B
Net Income TTM
$33.2B
Net Margin
53.4%
TCOM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
82%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
82%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+36.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q4 2025
EPS
$3.87/$1.15
Revenue
$2.6B/$2.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.71/$0.72
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.86/$0.85
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.86/$0.85
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $3.87/$1.15 | +236.5% | $2.6B/$2.1B | +23.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.71/$0.72 | -1.4% | $2.2B/$2.1B | +3.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.86/$0.85 | +1.8% | $2.3B/$2.3B | -0.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.86/$0.85 | +1.8% | $2.3B/$2.3B | +0.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$70.7B
+13.7% YoY
FY2
$80.2B
+13.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$29.97
-36.8% YoY
FY2
$32.40
+8.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$13.6B
FCF Margin: 21.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
TCOM beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
TCOM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $62.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Accommodation Reservation Services
41.8%
+20.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
CHINA
82.7%
+13.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Accommodation Reservation Services is the largest disclosed segment at 41.8% of FY 2025 revenue, up 20.8% YoY.
CHINA is the largest reported region at 82.7%, up 13.2% YoY.
TCOM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $727 — implies +1511.7% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
1511.7%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TCOM
6.6x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
73% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
TCOM
6.6x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
69% discount
vs TCOM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
6.6x
vs
5Y Average
5.7x
+15% premium
Forward PE
1.6x
S&P 500
18.8x
-92%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
-90%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
6.6x
S&P 500
24.4x
-73%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
-69%
5Y Avg
5.7x
+15%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
-28%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
-10%
5Y Avg
15.2x
-28%
Price/FCF
14.1x
S&P 500
20.7x
-32%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
-9%
5Y Avg
5.1x
+175%
Price/Sales
3.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+2%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+353%
5Y Avg
0.8x
+283%
Dividend Yield
0.67%
S&P 500
1.91%
-65%
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
-69%
5Y Avg
2.83%
-76%
| Metric | TCOM | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg TCOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 1.6x | 18.8x-92% | 16.3x-90% | — |
| Trailing PE | 6.6x | 24.4x-73% | 21.2x-69% | 5.7x+15% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.9x | 15.2x-28% | 12.2x-10% | 15.2x-28% |
| Price/FCF | 14.1x | 20.7x-32% | 15.6x | 5.1x+175% |
| Price/Sales | 3.2x | 3.1x | 0.7x+353% | 0.8x+283% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.67% | 1.91% | 2.17% | 2.83% |
TCOM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTCOM Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
TCOM generates $13.6B in free cash flow at a 21.8% margin — returns 3.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$62.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+16.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
80.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
25.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
53.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$47.45
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$13.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
21.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
12.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$46.5B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$15.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
20.8%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (7.9%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.0%
Dividend
0.7%
Buyback
2.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$4.4B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.04
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
4.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
630M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageTCOM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory Scrutiny
Trip.com faces antitrust scrutiny from Chinese regulators over alleged monopolistic practices and AI-driven pricing.
High Risk
Legal Risks
A securities class action lawsuit is active against Trip.com, with a lead plaintiff deadline of May 11, 2026, following a sharp stock decline.
Medium
Market Sentiment
Trip.com's stock has declined by -16.27% amid mixed investor sentiment and market uncertainties.
Medium
AI Strategy Risks
The company's AI price adjustment tool, previously touted as a cornerstone of its strategy, is now under scrutiny, raising concerns about disclosure controls.
Lower
Competitive Pressures
Strategic acquisitions and partnerships are crucial for Trip.com to maintain its market position amid industry competition.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TCOM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Expansive travel inventory
Trip.com offers access to over 1.2 million hotels and flights to 5,000 destinations, providing a comprehensive travel booking platform.
Shift toward experiential travel
The company benefits from the global trend favoring travel experiences over luxury goods, positioning it as a key player in this secular shift.
Strong customer engagement
With 30 million real guest reviews and 24/7 customer service, Trip.com maintains high levels of customer trust and satisfaction.
Bullish investor sentiment
Multiple bullish theses highlight Trip.com's strong revenue growth, reinvestment strategy, and international expansion, driving stock appreciation.
Diverse travel services
Beyond flights and hotels, Trip.com offers car rentals, tours, and attractions, creating a one-stop-shop for travelers.
High user traffic
Over 100 million travelers visit Trip.com monthly, indicating strong brand recognition and market penetration.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TCOM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$45.10
52W Range Position
0%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$45.05
+0.1% from the low
52-Week High
$78.99
-42.9% from the high
1 Month
-8.56%
3 Month
-13.20%
YTD
-39.5%
1 Year
-20.2%
3Y CAGR
+9.1%
5Y CAGR
+4.1%
10Y CAGR
+1.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TCOM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
1.6x
vs 16.4x median
-90% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+13.7%
vs +8.8% median
+55% above peer median
Net Margin
53.4%
vs 10.3% median
+421% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TCO TCOM Trip.com Group Limited | $28.4B | 1.6x | +13.7% | 53.4% | Buy | +66.3% |
BKN BKNG Booking Holdings Inc. | $133.1B | 16.4x | +8.8% | 22.2% | Buy | +34.3% |
EXP EXPE Expedia Group, Inc. | $28.2B | 12.2x | +7.6% | 10.3% | Hold | +12.3% |
ABN ABNB Airbnb, Inc. | $84.5B | 27.8x | +11.1% | 19.9% | Buy | +8.5% |
TRI TRIP Tripadvisor, Inc. | $1.5B | 9.8x | +6.7% | 1.0% | Hold | +8.8% |
MMY MMYT MakeMyTrip Limited | $4.4B | 107.0x | +11.3% | 5.0% | Buy | +94.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TCOM Dividend and Capital Return
TCOM returns capital mainly through $4.4B/year in buybacks (2.3% buyback yield), with a modest 0.67% dividend — combining for 3.0% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.3%
Dividend Yield
0.67%
Payout Ratio
4.4%
How TCOM Splits Its Return
Div 0.67%
Buyback 2.3%
Dividend 0.67%Buybacks 2.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.04
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
1.1%
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$4.4B
Estimated Shares Retired
97M
Approx. Share Reduction
15.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
630M
At 15.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $0.30 | — | 8.8% | 11.6% |
| 2008 | $0.03 | -11.9% | 0.0% | 6.9% |
| 2007 | $0.03 | +8.6% | 0.0% | 1.8% |
| 2006 | $0.03 | +70.0% | 0.0% | 3.2% |
| 2005 | $0.02 | — | 0.0% | 4.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsTCOM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 43 analysts covering the stock, 31 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $75, implying +66.3% from the current price of $45. The bear case scenario is $163 and the bull case is $342.
02What is the TCOM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TCOM is $75 based on 43 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $75 (+66.3% from today), and the low-end target is $75 (+66.3%). The base case model target is $259.
03Is Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) stock overvalued in 2026?
TCOM trades at 1.6x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TCOM in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory Scrutiny — Trip. (2) Legal Risks — A securities class action lawsuit is active against Trip. (3) Market Sentiment — Trip. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Trip.com Group Limited's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TCOM will report consensus revenue of $70.7B (+13.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $29.97 (-36.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $80.2B in revenue.
06When does Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for TCOM is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Trip.com Group Limited generate?
Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) generated $13.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 21.8%. TCOM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.7% yield) and share repurchases ($4.4B TTM).