Upside case
Bull case
$382+173.2%
ABNB would need investors to value it at roughly 77x earnings — about 49x more generous than today's 28x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
44
analysts
20 bullish · 3 bearish · 44 covering ABNB
Strong Buy
0
Buy
20
Hold
21
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$145
+4.1% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $382
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
44
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
28.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $85.0B
ABNB price targets
Three scenarios for where ABNB stock could go
Current
~$140
Confidence
44 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $140
Base
$218
Bull
$382
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$218+56.2%
At 44x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Airbnb, Inc.
ABNB · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalTravel ServicesDecember year-end
Airbnb operates a global online marketplace that connects travelers with hosts offering short-term lodging and experiences. It generates revenue primarily through service fees from both guests and hosts — typically 14% from guests and 3% from hosts per booking — with additional income from experiences and professional hosting services. Its network effect — millions of unique listings across nearly every country — creates a powerful moat that new entrants struggle to replicate.
Market Cap
$85.0B
Revenue TTM
$11.9B
Net Income TTM
$2.6B
Net Margin
22.0%
ABNB Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+19.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.24/$0.23
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.3B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.03/$0.94
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.21/$2.31
Revenue
$4.1B/$4.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.56/$0.67
Revenue
$2.8B/$2.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.24/$0.23 | +2.8% | $2.3B/$2.3B | +0.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.03/$0.94 | +9.9% | $3.1B/$3.0B | +2.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.21/$2.31 | -4.3% | $4.1B/$4.1B | +0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.56/$0.67 | -15.9% | $2.8B/$2.7B | +2.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$13.7B
+14.9% YoY
FY2
$15.5B
+12.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.11
+20.6% YoY
FY2
$6.30
+23.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$4.6B
FCF Margin: 38.2%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.30
Expected Revenue
$2.6B
ABNB beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
ABNB Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $12.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Reportable Segment
100.0%
+10.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North America
42.4%
+3.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Reportable Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 10.3% YoY.
North America is the largest reported region at 42.4%, up 3.8% YoY.
ABNB Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $154 — implies +8.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
8.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ABNB
34.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+38% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
ABNB
34.7x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
+80% premium
vs ABNB 5Y Avg P/E
Today
34.7x
vs
5Y Average
28.8x
+20% premium
Forward PE
28.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
+48%
Consumer Cyclical
15.1x
+87%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
34.7x
S&P 500
25.1x
+38%
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
+80%
5Y Avg
28.8x
+20%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.91x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
31.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
+108%
Consumer Cyclical
11.3x
+179%
5Y Avg
36.3x
-13%
Price/FCF
18.3x
S&P 500
21.1x
-13%
Consumer Cyclical
14.6x
+25%
5Y Avg
24.3x
-25%
Price/Sales
6.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+122%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+870%
5Y Avg
9.5x
-27%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.23%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | ABNB | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg ABNB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 28.2x | 19.1x+48% | 15.1x+87% | — |
| Trailing PE | 34.7x | 25.1x+38% | 19.3x+80% | 28.8x+20% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 0.91x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 31.6x | 15.2x+108% | 11.3x+179% | 36.3x-13% |
| Price/FCF | 18.3x | 21.1x-13% | 14.6x+25% | 24.3x-25% |
| Price/Sales | 6.9x | 3.1x+122% | 0.7x+870% | 9.5x-27% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 2.23% | — |
ABNB trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolABNB Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
ABNB generates $4.6B in free cash flow at a 38.2% margin — 51.0% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$11.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+10.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
83.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
22.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
22.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.24
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$4.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
38.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
51.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$6.6B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$4.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
30.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
623M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageABNB Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory Changes
Airbnb faces significant long‑term risk from tightening regulations on short‑term rentals worldwide. Governments are imposing stricter rules, fines, permit revocations and legal battles that can limit listings and increase enforcement costs.
High Risk
High Valuation Metrics
Airbnb’s P/E, P/B and P/S ratios are consistently above industry averages, reflecting high growth expectations. If growth slows, the premium valuation could lead to sharp corrections in share price.
Medium
Profitability Pressure
Despite revenue growth, Airbnb’s profit margins are under pressure from rising costs and new initiatives. Continued margin erosion could impact earnings and investor returns.
Medium
Legal Battles with Cities
The company has engaged in costly lawsuits over new regulations, which can be time‑consuming and expensive, potentially diverting resources from growth initiatives.
Medium
Slowing Demand in Key Markets
There are concerns about slowing demand in certain markets, notably the U.S., which could reduce bookings and revenue growth.
Lower
Operational Guest Risks
Bad guests can cause property damage, noise complaints, theft, or illegal activities, leading to liability and increased insurance costs for hosts and Airbnb.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ABNB Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust Revenue Growth
Airbnb’s net sales reached record highs, with both year‑over‑year and quarter‑over‑quarter increases. Gross booking value has surged, driven by strong demand especially in emerging markets, underscoring the company’s expanding market reach.
AI‑Enabled Host Expansion
The firm is actively growing its host base while deploying artificial intelligence to personalize guest experiences, a strategy expected to lift revenue. It has reintroduced and expanded “Experiences” and “Services” features, deepening user engagement and broadening its value proposition.
Millennial & Gen Z Market Capture
Airbnb positions itself as a travel companion rather than just a booking tool, targeting younger travelers who prefer unique, local stays. Products such as Airbnb Luxe and Airbnb for Work are anticipated to contribute to steady growth by appealing to this demographic.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ABNB Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$139.73
52W Range Position
79%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$110.81
+26.1% from the low
52-Week High
$147.25
-5.1% from the high
1 Month
+10.19%
3 Month
+15.22%
YTD
+5.1%
1 Year
+11.9%
3Y CAGR
+5.2%
5Y CAGR
-3.0%
10Y CAGR
-0.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ABNB vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
28.2x
vs 12.8x median
+120% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+14.9%
vs +9.3% median
+59% above peer median
Net Margin
22.0%
vs 12.6% median
+75% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ABN ABNB Airbnb, Inc. | $85.0B | 28.2x | +14.9% | 22.0% | Hold | +4.1% |
BKN BKNG Booking Holdings Inc. | $129.9B | 16.0x | +10.5% | 22.2% | Buy | +38.2% |
EXP EXPE Expedia Group, Inc. | $32.8B | 12.8x | +9.3% | 8.8% | Hold | +9.5% |
TRI TRIP Tripadvisor, Inc. | $1.3B | 7.7x | +6.6% | 2.1% | Hold | +20.2% |
TCO TCOM Trip.com Group Limited | $34.2B | 1.9x | +21.4% | 52.2% | Buy | +43.1% |
HLT HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | $71.2B | 34.5x | +9.3% | 12.6% | Buy | +8.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsABNB Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 44 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 21 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $145, implying +4.1% from the current price of $140.
02What is the ABNB stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ABNB is $145 based on 44 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $185 (+32.4% from today), and the low-end target is $107 (-23.4%). The base case model target is $218.
03Is Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) stock overvalued in 2026?
ABNB trades at 28.2x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ABNB in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory Changes — Airbnb faces significant long‑term risk from tightening regulations on short‑term rentals worldwide. (2) High Valuation Metrics — Airbnb’s P/E, P/B and P/S ratios are consistently above industry averages, reflecting high growth expectations. (3) Profitability Pressure — Despite revenue growth, Airbnb’s profit margins are under pressure from rising costs and new initiatives. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Airbnb, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ABNB will report consensus revenue of $13.7B (+14.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.11 (+20.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $15.5B in revenue.
06When does Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) report its next earnings?
Airbnb, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $0.30 and revenue of $2.6B. Over recent quarters, ABNB has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Airbnb, Inc. generate?
Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) generated $4.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 38.2%. ABNB returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).