Upside case
Bull case
$265+86.3%
ABNB would need investors to value it at roughly 52x earnings — about 24x more generous than today's 28x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
45
analysts
21 bullish · 3 bearish · 45 covering ABNB
Strong Buy
0
Buy
21
Hold
21
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$155
+8.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$127 – $265
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
45
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
27.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $84.5B
ABNB price targets
Three scenarios for where ABNB stock could go
Current
~$142
Confidence
56 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $142
Bear
$127
Base
$201
Bull
$265
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$201+41.4%
At 39x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$127-10.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push ABNB down roughly 11% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Airbnb, Inc.
ABNB · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalTravel ServicesDecember year-end
Airbnb operates a global online marketplace that connects travelers with hosts offering short-term lodging and experiences. It generates revenue primarily through service fees from both guests and hosts — typically 14% from guests and 3% from hosts per booking — with additional income from experiences and professional hosting services. Its network effect — millions of unique listings across nearly every country — creates a powerful moat that new entrants struggle to replicate.
Market Cap
$84.5B
Revenue TTM
$12.6B
Net Income TTM
$2.5B
Net Margin
19.9%
ABNB Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+9.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.03/$0.94
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.21/$2.31
Revenue
$4.1B/$4.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.56/$0.67
Revenue
$2.8B/$2.7B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.26/$0.30
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.03/$0.94 | +9.9% | $3.1B/$3.0B | +2.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.21/$2.31 | -4.3% | $4.1B/$4.1B | +0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.56/$0.67 | -15.9% | $2.8B/$2.7B | +2.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.26/$0.30 | -14.5% | $2.7B/$2.6B | +2.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$14.1B
+11.1% YoY
FY2
$15.5B
+10.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.17
+24.8% YoY
FY2
$6.13
+18.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$4.5B
FCF Margin: 36.0%
Next Earnings
August 5, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.19
Expected Revenue
$3.6B
ABNB beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
ABNB Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $12.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Reportable Segment
100.0%
+10.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North America
42.4%
+3.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Reportable Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 10.3% YoY.
North America is the largest reported region at 42.4%, up 3.8% YoY.
ABNB Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $77 — implies -45.7% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
45.7%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ABNB
35.3x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+45% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
ABNB
35.3x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+67% premium
vs ABNB 5Y Avg P/E
Today
35.3x
vs
5Y Average
28.8x
+23% premium
Forward PE
27.8x
S&P 500
18.8x
+48%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
+70%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
35.3x
S&P 500
24.4x
+45%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+67%
5Y Avg
28.8x
+23%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
31.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
+107%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
+158%
5Y Avg
36.3x
-13%
Price/FCF
18.2x
S&P 500
20.7x
-12%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
+17%
5Y Avg
24.3x
-25%
Price/Sales
6.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+123%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+889%
5Y Avg
9.5x
-28%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | ABNB | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg ABNB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 27.8x | 18.8x+48% | 16.3x+70% | — |
| Trailing PE | 35.3x | 24.4x+45% | 21.2x+67% | 28.8x+23% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 31.5x | 15.2x+107% | 12.2x+158% | 36.3x-13% |
| Price/FCF | 18.2x | 20.7x-12% | 15.6x+17% | 24.3x-25% |
| Price/Sales | 6.9x | 3.1x+123% | 0.7x+889% | 9.5x-28% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 2.17% | — |
ABNB trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolABNB Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
ABNB generates $4.5B in free cash flow at a 36.0% margin — 50.6% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 4.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$12.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+12.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
82.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
20.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
19.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.14
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$4.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
36.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
50.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
10.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$6.6B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$4.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
31.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.5%
Dividend
—
Buyback
4.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$3.8B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
594M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageABNB Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Finance & Corporate Risks
Airbnb disclosed 54 risk factors in its most recent earnings report, with the most risks concentrated in the 'Finance & Corporate' category.
Medium
Competitive Pressure
Booking Holdings and other competitors pose a threat to Airbnb's market share, as indicated by revenue trend comparisons.
High Risk
Regulatory Challenges
Operating in 220+ countries exposes Airbnb to varying local regulations, which could disrupt its business model.
Medium
Valuation Concerns
Analysts assign a Hold rating with only +3.5% implied upside, suggesting limited near-term growth potential.
Lower
Market Saturation
With 8 million listings worldwide, Airbnb may face diminishing returns from expansion.
Medium
Economic Sensitivity
As a discretionary travel service, Airbnb's performance is vulnerable to economic downturns.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ABNB Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Global market leadership
Airbnb dominates the vacation rental market with 8 million listings across 220+ countries, offering unparalleled choice and accessibility.
Diversified travel offerings
The platform expands beyond accommodations with Experiences and Services, deepening user engagement and creating additional revenue streams.
Brand recognition and loyalty
As the world's largest community-driven hospitality company, Airbnb enjoys strong brand affinity and a network effect from its global user base.
Unique value proposition
Airbnb revolutionized travel by offering distinctive stays (e.g., cottages, condos) and experiences unavailable through traditional hospitality providers.
Platform stickiness
With 2 million Guest Favorites and an all-in-one app for stays/experiences/services, Airbnb creates a sticky ecosystem that retains users.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ABNB Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$142.41
52W Range Position
87%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$110.81
+28.5% from the low
52-Week High
$147.25
-3.3% from the high
1 Month
+6.04%
3 Month
+8.60%
YTD
+7.1%
1 Year
+7.7%
3Y CAGR
+4.0%
5Y CAGR
-1.4%
10Y CAGR
-0.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ABNB vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
27.8x
vs 12.2x median
+127% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+11.1%
vs +7.8% median
+43% above peer median
Net Margin
19.9%
vs 12.6% median
+59% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ABN ABNB Airbnb, Inc. | $84.5B | 27.8x | +11.1% | 19.9% | Buy | +8.5% |
BKN BKNG Booking Holdings Inc. | $133.1B | 16.4x | +8.8% | 22.2% | Buy | +34.3% |
EXP EXPE Expedia Group, Inc. | $28.2B | 12.2x | +7.6% | 10.3% | Hold | +12.3% |
TRI TRIP Tripadvisor, Inc. | $1.5B | 9.8x | +6.7% | 1.0% | Hold | +8.8% |
TCO TCOM Trip.com Group Limited | $28.4B | 1.6x | +13.7% | 53.4% | Buy | +66.3% |
HLT HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | $79.4B | 38.6x | +7.8% | 12.6% | Buy | -1.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ABNB Dividend and Capital Return
ABNB returns 4.5% annually — null% through dividends and 4.5% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
4.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
4.5%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$3.8B
Estimated Shares Retired
27M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
594M
At 4.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsABNB Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 45 analysts covering the stock, 21 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 21 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $155, implying +8.5% from the current price of $142. The bear case scenario is $127 and the bull case is $265.
02What is the ABNB stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ABNB is $155 based on 45 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $185 (+29.9% from today), and the low-end target is $120 (-15.7%). The base case model target is $201.
03Is Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) stock overvalued in 2026?
ABNB trades at 27.8x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ABNB in 2026 are: (1) Finance & Corporate Risks — Airbnb disclosed 54 risk factors in its most recent earnings report, with the most risks concentrated in the 'Finance & Corporate' category. (2) Regulatory Challenges — Operating in 220+ countries exposes Airbnb to varying local regulations, which could disrupt its business model. (3) Competitive Pressure — Booking Holdings and other competitors pose a threat to Airbnb's market share, as indicated by revenue trend comparisons. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Airbnb, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ABNB will report consensus revenue of $14.1B (+11.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.17 (+24.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $15.5B in revenue.
06When does Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) report its next earnings?
Airbnb, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-05. Consensus expects EPS of $1.19 and revenue of $3.6B. Over recent quarters, ABNB has beaten EPS estimates 58% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Airbnb, Inc. generate?
Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) generated $4.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 36.0%. ABNB returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($3.8B TTM).