Upside case
Bull case
$520+115.7%
EXPE would need investors to value it at roughly 26x earnings — about 14x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
75
analysts
34 bullish · 2 bearish · 75 covering EXPE
Strong Buy
0
Buy
34
Hold
39
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$271
+12.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$248 – $520
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
75
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $28.2B
EXPE price targets
Three scenarios for where EXPE stock could go
Current
~$241
Confidence
54 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $241
Bear
$248
Base
$394
Bull
$520
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$394+63.7%
At 20x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$248+3.1%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push EXPE down roughly 3% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Expedia Group, Inc.
EXPE · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalTravel ServicesDecember year-end
Expedia Group is a global online travel marketplace connecting travelers with lodging, flights, rental cars, and vacation packages. It generates revenue primarily through merchant commissions from hotel bookings (around 70% of revenue) and agency commissions from flights and other travel services, supplemented by advertising from its metasearch platform trivago. The company's moat lies in its massive scale and brand portfolio — including Expedia, Hotels.com, Vrbo, and Orbitz — which creates network effects and supplier relationships that are difficult for new entrants to replicate.
Market Cap
$28.2B
Revenue TTM
$15.2B
Net Income TTM
$1.6B
Net Margin
10.3%
EXPE Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+30.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$4.24/$3.97
Revenue
$3.8B/$3.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$7.57/$6.97
Revenue
$4.4B/$4.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.78/$3.35
Revenue
$3.5B/$3.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.96/$1.41
Revenue
$3.4B/$3.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $4.24/$3.97 | +6.8% | $3.8B/$3.7B | +2.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.57/$6.97 | +8.6% | $4.4B/$4.3B | +3.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.78/$3.35 | +12.8% | $3.5B/$3.4B | +3.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.96/$1.41 | +39.0% | $3.4B/$3.4B | +2.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$16.3B
+7.6% YoY
FY2
$17.4B
+6.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$16.59
+29.9% YoY
FY2
$17.20
+3.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$4.7B
FCF Margin: 30.9%
Next Earnings
August 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$5.16
Expected Revenue
$4.2B
EXPE beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
EXPE Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $12.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Lodging
96.7%
+7.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
100.0%
+4.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Lodging is the largest disclosed segment at 96.7% of FY 2025 revenue, up 7.3% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 100.0%, up 4.0% YoY.
EXPE Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $334 — implies +38.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
38.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
EXPE
24.6x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
In line with benchmark
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
EXPE
24.6x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+16% premium
vs EXPE 5Y Avg P/E
Today
24.6x
vs
5Y Average
29.6x
17% discount
Forward PE
12.2x
S&P 500
18.8x
-35%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
-25%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
24.6x
S&P 500
24.4x
+0%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+16%
5Y Avg
29.6x
-17%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
9.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
-36%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
-20%
5Y Avg
16.0x
-39%
Price/FCF
9.1x
S&P 500
20.7x
-56%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
-42%
5Y Avg
9.9x
-8%
Price/Sales
1.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-38%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+174%
5Y Avg
2.1x
-9%
Dividend Yield
0.63%
S&P 500
1.91%
-67%
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
-71%
5Y Avg
0.39%
+61%
| Metric | EXPE | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg EXPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.2x | 18.8x-35% | 16.3x-25% | — |
| Trailing PE | 24.6x | 24.4x | 21.2x+16% | 29.6x-17% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.7x | 15.2x-36% | 12.2x-20% | 16.0x-39% |
| Price/FCF | 9.1x | 20.7x-56% | 15.6x-42% | 9.9x |
| Price/Sales | 1.9x | 3.1x-38% | 0.7x+174% | 2.1x |
| Dividend Yield | 0.63% | 1.91% | 2.17% | 0.39% |
EXPE trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolEXPE Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
EXPE generates $4.7B in free cash flow at a 30.9% margin — 40.2% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 7.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$15.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+10.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
87.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
15.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
10.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$12.77
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$4.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
30.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
40.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$7.0B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$307M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
68.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
7.5%
Dividend
0.6%
Buyback
6.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.9B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.52
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
15.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
117M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageEXPE Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Margin outlook concerns
Expedia's cautious full-year 2026 margin outlook led to a 13% stock decline, overshadowing strong Q4 2025 earnings.
High Risk
Revenue growth stagnation
The bear case suggests revenue growth could stagnate at +1-2% as Expedia loses market share.
Medium
Market share erosion
Expedia faces risks of losing market share, potentially limiting its long-term growth trajectory.
Medium
Transformation execution risk
The company's ability to execute a successful transformation is uncertain, with bulls and bears differing on outcomes.
Lower
Analyst sentiment mixed
Wall Street analysts are divided, with 34 rating Expedia Buy/Strong Buy and 39 rating it Hold.
Lower
Platform fragmentation legacy
Expedia has worked to shed its reputation for tech debt and platform fragmentation, but risks remain.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why EXPE Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong EBITDA multiples
Bull case suggests 11x multiples on $4.1 billion EBITDA, indicating 80-100% upside potential.
Consensus target upside
Analysts project an 11.1% implied upside with a $271 consensus target price.
Integrated rewards program
Unified account across Expedia, Hotels.com, and Vrbo enhances customer loyalty and retention.
Diverse travel offerings
Comprehensive platform for hotels, flights, car rentals, and vacations drives revenue growth.
Institutional ownership support
Top holder Vanguard Group (7.5%) signals strong institutional confidence in the company.
Platform performance improvements
Ongoing updates and bug fixes enhance user experience and operational efficiency.
Brand and trademark strength
Strong brand recognition with trademarks like Expedia and Hotels.com solidifies market position.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
EXPE Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$240.90
52W Range Position
56%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$160.00
+50.6% from the low
52-Week High
$303.80
-20.7% from the high
1 Month
+12.05%
3 Month
+0.36%
YTD
-14.9%
1 Year
+48.3%
3Y CAGR
+31.1%
5Y CAGR
+8.1%
10Y CAGR
+8.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
EXPE vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.2x
vs 16.4x median
-26% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.6%
vs +11.1% median
-32% below peer median
Net Margin
10.3%
vs 19.9% median
-48% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EXP EXPE Expedia Group, Inc. | $28.2B | 12.2x | +7.6% | 10.3% | Hold | +12.3% |
BKN BKNG Booking Holdings Inc. | $133.1B | 16.4x | +8.8% | 22.2% | Buy | +34.3% |
ABN ABNB Airbnb, Inc. | $84.5B | 27.8x | +11.1% | 19.9% | Buy | +8.5% |
TRI TRIP Tripadvisor, Inc. | $1.5B | 9.8x | +6.7% | 1.0% | Hold | +8.8% |
TCO TCOM Trip.com Group Limited | $28.4B | 1.6x | +13.7% | 53.4% | Buy | +66.3% |
MMY MMYT MakeMyTrip Limited | $4.4B | 107.0x | +11.3% | 5.0% | Buy | +94.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
EXPE Dividend and Capital Return
EXPE returns capital mainly through $1.9B/year in buybacks (6.8% buyback yield), with a modest 0.63% dividend — combining for 7.5% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
7.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
6.8%
Dividend Yield
0.63%
Payout Ratio
15.5%
How EXPE Splits Its Return
Buyback 6.8%
Dividend 0.63%Buybacks 6.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.52
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
7.7%
5Y Div CAGR
36.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.9B
Estimated Shares Retired
8M
Approx. Share Reduction
6.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
117M
At 6.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.96 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.60 | — | 5.2% | 5.7% |
| 2020 | $0.34 | -74.2% | 2.3% | 2.5% |
| 2019 | $1.32 | +6.5% | 4.6% | 5.8% |
| 2018 | $1.24 | +6.9% | 5.4% | 6.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsEXPE Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 75 analysts covering the stock, 34 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 39 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $271, implying +12.3% from the current price of $241. The bear case scenario is $248 and the bull case is $520.
02What is the EXPE stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for EXPE is $271 based on 75 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $330 (+37.0% from today), and the low-end target is $240 (-0.4%). The base case model target is $394.
03Is Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) stock overvalued in 2026?
EXPE trades at 12.2x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for EXPE in 2026 are: (1) Margin outlook concerns — Expedia's cautious full-year 2026 margin outlook led to a 13% stock decline, overshadowing strong Q4 2025 earnings. (2) Revenue growth stagnation — The bear case suggests revenue growth could stagnate at +1-2% as Expedia loses market share. (3) Market share erosion — Expedia faces risks of losing market share, potentially limiting its long-term growth trajectory. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Expedia Group, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates EXPE will report consensus revenue of $16.3B (+7.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $16.59 (+29.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $17.4B in revenue.
06When does Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) report its next earnings?
Expedia Group, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-06. Consensus expects EPS of $5.16 and revenue of $4.2B. Over recent quarters, EXPE has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Expedia Group, Inc. generate?
Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) generated $4.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 30.9%. EXPE returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.6% yield) and share repurchases ($1.9B TTM).