Upside case
Bull case
$393+133.4%
BKNG would need investors to value it at roughly 37x earnings — about 21x more generous than today's 16x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
71
analysts
46 bullish · 0 bearish · 71 covering BKNG
Strong Buy
1
Buy
45
Hold
25
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$232
+37.7% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $393
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
71
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
16.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $130.4B
BKNG price targets
Three scenarios for where BKNG stock could go
Current
~$168
Confidence
57 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $168
Base
$317
Bull
$393
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$317+88.2%
At 30x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Booking Holdings Inc.
BKNG · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalTravel ServicesDecember year-end
Booking Holdings is a global online travel agency that connects travelers with accommodations, flights, rental cars, and restaurant reservations through its portfolio of brands. It primarily generates revenue from commissions on bookings — with accommodation commissions representing the vast majority — supplemented by advertising fees from travel providers and restaurant reservation fees. The company's moat lies in its massive global inventory and network effects, where its scale attracts both travelers and suppliers in a virtuous cycle that competitors struggle to match.
Market Cap
$130.4B
Revenue TTM
$27.7B
Net Income TTM
$6.2B
Net Margin
22.2%
BKNG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+15.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.55/$0.50
Revenue
$6.8B/$6.6B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.99/$0.96
Revenue
$9.0B/$8.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.95/$1.95
Revenue
$6.3B/$6.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.14/$1.08
Revenue
$5.5B/$5.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.55/$0.50 | +10.1% | $6.8B/$6.6B | +3.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.99/$0.96 | +3.8% | $9.0B/$8.7B | +3.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.95/$1.95 | +0.0% | $6.3B/$6.1B | +3.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.14/$1.08 | +5.6% | $5.5B/$5.5B | +0.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$30.6B
+10.5% YoY
FY2
$35.3B
+15.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$10.33
+33.2% YoY
FY2
$12.46
+20.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$9.0B
FCF Margin: 32.6%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
BKNG beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
BKNG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $26.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Merchant Revenue
66.0%
+25.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
NETHERLANDS
89.4%
+16.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Merchant Revenue is the largest disclosed segment at 66.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 25.5% YoY.
NETHERLANDS is the largest reported region at 89.4%, up 16.7% YoY.
BKNG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $1715 — implies +911.3% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
911.3%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BKNG
25.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
In line with benchmark
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
BKNG
25.4x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+30% premium
vs BKNG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
25.4x
vs
5Y Average
40.6x
37% discount
Forward PE
16.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
-16%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
+6%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
25.4x
S&P 500
25.2x
+1%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+30%
5Y Avg
40.6x
-37%
PEG Ratio
0.16x
S&P 500
1.75x
-91%
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
-83%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
13.2x
S&P 500
15.3x
-14%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
+16%
5Y Avg
21.0x
-37%
Price/FCF
14.4x
S&P 500
21.3x
-33%
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
-4%
5Y Avg
22.3x
-36%
Price/Sales
4.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+55%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+581%
5Y Avg
6.7x
-28%
Dividend Yield
0.91%
S&P 500
1.88%
-52%
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
-58%
5Y Avg
0.70%
+29%
| Metric | BKNG | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg BKNG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 16.0x | 19.1x-16% | 15.2x | — |
| Trailing PE | 25.4x | 25.2x | 19.6x+30% | 40.6x-37% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.16x | 1.75x-91% | 0.95x-83% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.2x | 15.3x-14% | 11.4x+16% | 21.0x-37% |
| Price/FCF | 14.4x | 21.3x-33% | 15.0x | 22.3x-36% |
| Price/Sales | 4.8x | 3.1x+55% | 0.7x+581% | 6.7x-28% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.91% | 1.88% | 2.15% | 0.70% |
BKNG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBKNG Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
BKNG generates $9.0B in free cash flow at a 32.6% margin — returns 5.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$27.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+15.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
100.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
34.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
22.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$7.75
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$9.0B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
32.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
—
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
21.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$17.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.2× FCF
~0.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.8%
Dividend
0.9%
Buyback
4.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$6.4B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.53
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
23.1%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
775M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageBKNG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory and Legal Risks
Booking Holdings is facing increasing regulatory scrutiny in Europe, particularly from Italy's antitrust authority, which has launched an investigation into alleged unfair terms imposed on hotel partners. Additionally, the company is appealing a significant antitrust fine in Spain, and there are concerns regarding the potential impact of new regulations like the Digital Markets Act (DMA).
High Risk
Technological Disruption and AI
The rise of generative AI poses a significant threat to Booking Holdings, as AI agents could potentially handle travel planning and bookings directly with service providers, disintermediating platforms like Booking.com. The company is investing heavily in AI and its 'Connected Trip' strategy to mitigate this risk, but the success and integration of these investments remain uncertain.
Medium
Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Factors
Geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, can adversely impact travel demand, leading to cancellations and moderating bookings. Additionally, fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates and adverse changes in market conditions for travel services present further risks to the company's performance.
Medium
Operational and IT Risks
Booking Holdings relies on complex IT systems, and any failures or security breaches could disrupt services, damage its reputation, and lead to lost business. Information security, cybersecurity, and data privacy are significant concerns that could impact operational continuity.
Medium
Financial and Corporate Risks
The stock price of Booking Holdings is subject to volatility influenced by financial results, market sentiment, and broader economic conditions. Recent insider selling raises concerns about potential lack of confidence in the company's future performance, and some analysts suggest the stock may be overvalued given current risks.
Lower
Competition
The travel industry is highly competitive, with Booking Holdings facing ongoing competition from other online travel agencies and emerging platforms. This competitive landscape could pressure margins and impact market share.
Lower
Growth and Market Conditions
While Booking Holdings has demonstrated strong growth potential, there are concerns about decelerating room night growth and the market's optimistic forward estimates that may not materialize. The company's transition to a merchant model and its 'connected trip' strategy are crucial for future success, but their outcomes are uncertain.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BKNG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Dominant Market Position and Network Effects
Booking Holdings operates as a leading global online travel agency (OTA) with a vast platform spanning over 220 countries and offering more than 28 million listings. The company benefits from powerful network effects: more hotels attract more travelers, and more travelers attract more hotels, creating a self-reinforcing competitive advantage.
Transition to High-Margin Merchant Model
Booking is accelerating its transition to a merchant model, which now represents a majority of its revenue and offers structurally higher margins. This model allows it to control the payment flow, gain float income, and leverage working capital, similar to a fintech company.
Financial Strength and Shareholder Returns
The company generates strong free cash flow, with a reported $7.8 billion in free cash flow previously highlighted. Booking has a substantial remaining share buyback authorization of $21.8 billion and has increased its dividend, signaling management's confidence.
AI Integration and Future Growth
Booking is positioning itself as an 'AI Concierge' for travelers, leveraging AI technology for expansion plans, particularly in Asia and alternative accommodations. The company's investment thesis is built on 'Platform Ubiquity and Higher-Value Intermediation,' with AI playing a key role in capturing direct traffic and reducing marketing costs.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BKNG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$168.32
52W Range Position
0%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$150.62
+11.8% from the low
52-Week High
$5129.83
-96.7% from the high
1 Month
-4.47%
3 Month
-5.59%
YTD
-21.0%
1 Year
-18.5%
3Y CAGR
+16.8%
5Y CAGR
+13.0%
10Y CAGR
+12.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BKNG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
16.0x
vs 12.7x median
+26% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+10.5%
vs +14.9% median
-30% below peer median
Net Margin
22.2%
vs 8.8% median
+153% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BKN BKNG Booking Holdings Inc. | $130.4B | 16.0x | +10.5% | 22.2% | Buy | +37.7% |
EXP EXPE Expedia Group, Inc. | $32.5B | 12.7x | +9.3% | 8.8% | Hold | +10.4% |
ABN ABNB Airbnb, Inc. | $85.0B | 28.2x | +14.9% | 22.0% | Hold | +4.0% |
TRI TRIP Tripadvisor, Inc. | $1.3B | 7.6x | +6.6% | 2.1% | Hold | +21.3% |
TCO TCOM Trip.com Group Limited | $35.6B | 2.0x | +21.4% | 52.2% | Buy | +37.7% |
MMY MMYT MakeMyTrip Limited | $4.4B | 71.7x | +26.3% | 5.5% | Buy | +83.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
BKNG Dividend and Capital Return
BKNG returns capital mainly through $6.4B/year in buybacks (4.9% buyback yield), with a modest 0.91% dividend — combining for 5.8% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
4.9%
Dividend Yield
0.91%
Payout Ratio
23.1%
How BKNG Splits Its Return
Div 0.91%
Buyback 4.9%
Dividend 0.91%Buybacks 4.9%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.53
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$6.4B
Estimated Shares Retired
38M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
775M
At 4.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.84 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.54 | +9.7% | 3.7% | 4.4% |
| 2024 | $1.40 | — | 3.8% | 4.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsBKNG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 71 analysts covering the stock, 46 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 25 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $232, implying +37.7% from the current price of $168.
02What is the BKNG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for BKNG is $232 based on 71 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $310 (+84.1% from today), and the low-end target is $175 (+4.0%). The base case model target is $317.
03Is Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) stock overvalued in 2026?
BKNG trades at 16.0x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BKNG in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory and Legal Risks — Booking Holdings is facing increasing regulatory scrutiny in Europe, particularly from Italy's antitrust authority, which has launched an investigation into alleged unfair terms imposed on hotel partners. (2) Technological Disruption and AI — The rise of generative AI poses a significant threat to Booking Holdings, as AI agents could potentially handle travel planning and bookings directly with service providers, disintermediating platforms like Booking. (3) Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Factors — Geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, can adversely impact travel demand, leading to cancellations and moderating bookings. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Booking Holdings Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BKNG will report consensus revenue of $30.6B (+10.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $10.33 (+33.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $35.3B in revenue.
06When does Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for BKNG is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Booking Holdings Inc. generate?
Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) generated $9.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 32.6%. BKNG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.9% yield) and share repurchases ($6.4B TTM).