Upside case
Bull case
$471+118.0%
TEL would need investors to value it at roughly 42x earnings — about 23x more generous than today's 19x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
TE Connectivity Ltd. (TEL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
29
analysts
15 bullish · 0 bearish · 29 covering TEL
Strong Buy
0
Buy
15
Hold
14
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$263
+21.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$243 – $471
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
29
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
19.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $63.4B
TEL price targets
Three scenarios for where TEL stock could go
Current
~$216
Confidence
66 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $216
Bear
$243
Base
$401
Bull
$471
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$401+85.5%
At 36x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$243+12.4%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push TEL down roughly 12% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
TE Connectivity Ltd.
TEL · NYSETechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSeptember year-end
TE Connectivity is a global manufacturer of connectivity and sensor solutions used in transportation, industrial equipment, and communications systems. It generates revenue primarily through three segments—Transportation Solutions (~60% of sales), Industrial Solutions (~25%), and Communications Solutions (~15%)—selling components like connectors, sensors, and relays directly to manufacturers. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep engineering expertise and extensive product portfolio that creates switching costs for customers designing complex systems.
Market Cap
$63.4B
Revenue TTM
$18.5B
Net Income TTM
$2.9B
Net Margin
15.7%
TEL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.27/$2.08
Revenue
$4.5B/$4.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.44/$2.29
Revenue
$4.6B/$4.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.72/$2.55
Revenue
$4.7B/$4.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.73/$2.69
Revenue
$4.7B/$4.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.27/$2.08 | +9.1% | $4.5B/$4.3B | +4.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.44/$2.29 | +6.6% | $4.6B/$4.6B | -0.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.72/$2.55 | +6.7% | $4.7B/$4.5B | +3.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.73/$2.69 | +1.5% | $4.7B/$4.7B | -0.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$19.6B
+5.8% YoY
FY2
$20.9B
+6.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$10.61
+7.7% YoY
FY2
$11.42
+7.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.4B
FCF Margin: 18.3%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
TEL beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
TEL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $17.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Transportation Solutions
54.4%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
27.2%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Transportation Solutions is the largest disclosed segment at 54.4% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
Americas is the largest reported region at 27.2%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
TEL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $269 — implies +29.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
29.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TEL
35.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+39% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
TEL
35.1x
vs
Technology
27.5x
+28% premium
vs TEL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
35.1x
vs
5Y Average
21.3x
+65% premium
Forward PE
19.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
+1%
Technology
21.7x
-11%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
35.1x
S&P 500
25.2x
+39%
Technology
27.5x
+28%
5Y Avg
21.3x
+65%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Technology
1.47x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
17.0x
S&P 500
15.3x
+11%
Technology
17.4x
-2%
5Y Avg
13.9x
+22%
Price/FCF
19.8x
S&P 500
21.3x
-7%
Technology
19.8x
+0%
5Y Avg
19.7x
+0%
Price/Sales
3.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+18%
Technology
2.4x
+54%
5Y Avg
2.9x
+27%
Dividend Yield
1.24%
S&P 500
1.88%
-34%
Technology
1.18%
+6%
5Y Avg
1.59%
-22%
| Metric | TEL | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg TEL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 19.3x | 19.1x | 21.7x-11% | — |
| Trailing PE | 35.1x | 25.2x+39% | 27.5x+28% | 21.3x+65% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.47x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.0x | 15.3x+11% | 17.4x | 13.9x+22% |
| Price/FCF | 19.8x | 21.3x | 19.8x | 19.7x |
| Price/Sales | 3.7x | 3.1x+18% | 2.4x+54% | 2.9x+27% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.24% | 1.88% | 1.18% | 1.59% |
TEL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTEL Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
TEL generates $3.4B in free cash flow at a 18.3% margin — 14.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 3.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$18.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+15.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
35.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
19.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
15.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.85
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
18.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
14.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.6× FCF
~1.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
22.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.4%
Dividend
1.2%
Buyback
2.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.3B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.69
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
43.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
293M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTEL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Supply Chain Disruptions
Disruptions in the global supply chain can materially impair TEL's ability to deliver connectors and other components, potentially stalling growth and eroding margins. Recent geopolitical tensions and raw material price volatility heighten this risk, especially for high‑volume automotive and industrial customers.
Medium
Valuation Premium to Historical Averages
TEL is trading at a premium relative to its historical price‑to‑earnings range, implying that near‑term optimism may already be priced in. If earnings fail to meet expectations, the stock could see a sharp correction, limiting upside potential.
Medium
Execution Risk in AI & Energy Expansion
TEL’s growth strategy hinges on scaling AI solutions and expanding in the energy segment, yet ramp‑up of new technologies and integration of acquisitions carry execution risk. Delays or cost overruns could compress margins and delay revenue realization.
Medium
Competitive & Market Demand Pressures
Intense competition in the connector industry and a potential decline in demand for connectors, especially in the automotive sector, threaten TEL’s market share and profitability. A downturn in China’s automotive market could further exacerbate these pressures.
Lower
Insider Selling Trend
Executives have recently sold shares, indicating a possible lack of confidence in the company’s near‑term prospects. While not a direct operational risk, it may influence investor sentiment.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TEL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Strategic Supplier in High‑Growth Sectors
TE Connectivity is a core supplier for AI data centers, electrified vehicles (EVs), and energy infrastructure, positioning it to benefit from rapid industry expansion. These sectors are projected to grow at double‑digit rates, providing a broad demand base for TE’s connectivity solutions.
Legal Overhang Cleared
The settlement with Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd. resolved uncertainty around AEC technology, enabling TE to commercialize and license its high‑speed connectivity portfolio without legal risk. This clarity removes a significant barrier that previously limited market confidence.
Strong 2028 Revenue & Earnings Outlook
Analysts project TE to reach $20.3 billion in revenue and $3.1 billion in earnings by 2028, reflecting robust top‑line and bottom‑line growth expectations. These figures underscore the company’s trajectory toward substantial profitability.
Energy Segment Outperformance
The Energy segment exceeded projections, driven by demand for grid hardening and renewable applications. This segment’s growth highlights TE’s exposure to resilient infrastructure markets.
Digital Data Networks Growth
TE’s Digital Data Networks segment is expected to generate over $1.5 billion in sales by fiscal year 2026, fueled by AI solution adoption. This growth demonstrates the company’s ability to capture emerging digital demand.
Operating Leverage & Margin Resilience
TE benefits from strong operating leverage and a resilient margin profile, supported by effective restructuring efforts and conservative guidance. These factors enhance profitability potential and support sustainable growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TEL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$216.17
52W Range Position
65%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$147.75
+46.3% from the low
52-Week High
$252.56
-14.4% from the high
1 Month
+3.07%
3 Month
+0.12%
YTD
-7.3%
1 Year
+45.5%
3Y CAGR
+20.8%
5Y CAGR
+9.8%
10Y CAGR
+13.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TEL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
19.3x
vs 29.7x median
-35% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.8%
vs +7.1% median
-18% below peer median
Net Margin
15.7%
vs 11.1% median
+41% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TEL TEL TE Connectivity Ltd. | $63.4B | 19.3x | +5.8% | 15.7% | Buy | +21.5% |
APH APH Amphenol Corporation | $170.2B | 29.7x | +25.4% | 17.3% | Buy | +30.2% |
HUB HUBB Hubbell Incorporated | $26.7B | 25.5x | +5.6% | 15.1% | Hold | +6.5% |
ROG ROG Rogers Corporation | $2.5B | 38.6x | -1.6% | -6.9% | Buy | +6.7% |
BDC BDC Belden Inc. | $4.5B | 14.5x | +7.1% | 8.5% | Buy | +30.8% |
GLW GLW Corning Incorporated | $156.0B | 57.5x | +13.0% | 11.1% | Buy | -21.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TEL Dividend and Capital Return
TEL returns capital mainly through $1.3B/year in buybacks (2.1% buyback yield), with a modest 1.24% dividend — combining for 3.4% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 15 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.1%
Dividend Yield
1.24%
Payout Ratio
43.6%
How TEL Splits Its Return
Div 1.24%
Buyback 2.1%
Dividend 1.24%Buybacks 2.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.69
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
15Y
3Y Div CAGR
8.4%
5Y Div CAGR
7.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.3B
Estimated Shares Retired
6M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
293M
At 2.1%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.49 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.78 | +9.4% | 2.1% | 3.3% |
| 2024 | $2.54 | +9.0% | 4.4% | 6.0% |
| 2023 | $2.33 | +6.9% | 2.4% | 4.3% |
| 2022 | $2.18 | +10.1% | 3.9% | 5.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsTEL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is TE Connectivity Ltd. (TEL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
TE Connectivity Ltd. (TEL) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 29 analysts covering the stock, 15 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $263, implying +21.5% from the current price of $216. The bear case scenario is $243 and the bull case is $471.
02What is the TEL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TEL is $263 based on 29 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $302 (+39.7% from today), and the low-end target is $226 (+4.5%). The base case model target is $401.
03Is TE Connectivity Ltd. (TEL) stock overvalued in 2026?
TEL trades at 19.3x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for TE Connectivity Ltd. (TEL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TEL in 2026 are: (1) Supply Chain Disruptions — Disruptions in the global supply chain can materially impair TEL's ability to deliver connectors and other components, potentially stalling growth and eroding margins. (2) Valuation Premium to Historical Averages — TEL is trading at a premium relative to its historical price‑to‑earnings range, implying that near‑term optimism may already be priced in. (3) Execution Risk in AI & Energy Expansion — TEL’s growth strategy hinges on scaling AI solutions and expanding in the energy segment, yet ramp‑up of new technologies and integration of acquisitions carry execution risk. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is TE Connectivity Ltd.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TEL will report consensus revenue of $19.6B (+5.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $10.61 (+7.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $20.9B in revenue.
06When does TE Connectivity Ltd. (TEL) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for TEL is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does TE Connectivity Ltd. generate?
TE Connectivity Ltd. (TEL) generated $3.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 18.3%. TEL returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.2% yield) and share repurchases ($1.3B TTM).