Upside case
Bull case
$527+142.3%
TEL would need investors to value it at roughly 47x earnings — about 28x more generous than today's 19x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
TE Connectivity Ltd. (TEL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
29
analysts
15 bullish · 0 bearish · 29 covering TEL
Strong Buy
0
Buy
15
Hold
14
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$262
+20.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$252 – $527
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
29
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
19.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $63.9B
TEL price targets
Three scenarios for where TEL stock could go
Current
~$218
Confidence
55 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $218
Bear
$252
Base
$400
Bull
$527
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$400+83.9%
At 36x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$252+15.9%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push TEL down roughly 16% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
TE Connectivity Ltd.
TEL · NYSETechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSeptember year-end
TE Connectivity is a global manufacturer of connectivity and sensor solutions used in transportation, industrial equipment, and communications systems. It generates revenue primarily through three segments—Transportation Solutions (~60% of sales), Industrial Solutions (~25%), and Communications Solutions (~15%)—selling components like connectors, sensors, and relays directly to manufacturers. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep engineering expertise and extensive product portfolio that creates switching costs for customers designing complex systems.
Market Cap
$63.9B
Revenue TTM
$18.5B
Net Income TTM
$2.9B
Net Margin
15.7%
TEL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.27/$2.08
Revenue
$4.5B/$4.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.44/$2.29
Revenue
$4.6B/$4.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.72/$2.55
Revenue
$4.7B/$4.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.73/$2.69
Revenue
$4.7B/$4.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.27/$2.08 | +9.1% | $4.5B/$4.3B | +4.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.44/$2.29 | +6.6% | $4.6B/$4.6B | -0.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.72/$2.55 | +6.7% | $4.7B/$4.5B | +3.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.73/$2.69 | +1.5% | $4.7B/$4.7B | -0.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$19.4B
+5.0% YoY
FY2
$20.7B
+6.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$10.68
+8.4% YoY
FY2
$11.72
+9.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.4B
FCF Margin: 18.3%
Next Earnings
July 22, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.81
Expected Revenue
$5.0B
TEL beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
TEL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $17.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Transportation Solutions
54.4%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
27.2%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Transportation Solutions is the largest disclosed segment at 54.4% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
Americas is the largest reported region at 27.2%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
TEL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $325 — implies +49.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
49.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TEL
35.3x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+45% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
TEL
35.3x
vs
Technology
29.0x
+22% premium
vs TEL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
35.3x
vs
5Y Average
21.3x
+66% premium
Forward PE
19.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
+3%
Technology
22.3x
-13%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
35.3x
S&P 500
24.4x
+45%
Technology
29.0x
+22%
5Y Avg
21.3x
+66%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Technology
1.51x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
17.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
+12%
Technology
16.6x
+3%
5Y Avg
13.9x
+23%
Price/FCF
19.9x
S&P 500
20.7x
-4%
Technology
19.2x
+4%
5Y Avg
19.7x
+1%
Price/Sales
3.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+21%
Technology
2.4x
+53%
5Y Avg
2.9x
+28%
Dividend Yield
1.23%
S&P 500
1.91%
-36%
Technology
1.11%
+12%
5Y Avg
1.59%
-23%
| Metric | TEL | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg TEL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 19.4x | 18.8x | 22.3x-13% | — |
| Trailing PE | 35.3x | 24.4x+45% | 29.0x+22% | 21.3x+66% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.51x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.1x | 15.2x+12% | 16.6x | 13.9x+23% |
| Price/FCF | 19.9x | 20.7x | 19.2x | 19.7x |
| Price/Sales | 3.7x | 3.1x+21% | 2.4x+53% | 2.9x+28% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.23% | 1.91% | 1.11% | 1.59% |
TEL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTEL Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
TEL generates $3.4B in free cash flow at a 18.3% margin — 14.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 3.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$18.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+15.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
35.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
19.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
15.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.85
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
18.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
14.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.6× FCF
~1.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
22.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.3%
Dividend
1.2%
Buyback
2.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.3B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.69
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
43.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
293M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTEL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Earnings Perception
Mixed Q2 Fiscal 2026 earnings led to a decline in stock price, reflecting investor concerns about performance.
High Risk
Financial Strain
Increase in total liabilities in Q2 2026 suggests potential financial strain, adding downward pressure on the stock.
Medium
Market Sentiment
Stock has lost about 10% since January 2026, indicating negative market sentiment and bearish trends.
Lower
Valuation Uncertainty
Projected EPS for next fiscal year carries a confidence score of 66/100, reflecting some uncertainty in estimates.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TEL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Broad portfolio of reliable components
TE Connectivity is known for its extensive and optimally engineered portfolio of connectors and sensors, serving diverse industries with rugged and reliable electronic components.
Growth in industrial automation
Expanding demand for compact, reliable connectors in industrial automation, robotics, and advanced automotive electronics aligns with TE's strengths in miniaturized connectivity solutions.
Leadership in EV and autonomous systems
TE Connectivity is a major supplier of connectivity solutions for electric vehicles and autonomous systems, benefiting from the rapid growth in these sectors.
Legal resolution boosts clarity
The confidential settlement with Credo Technology removes legal uncertainty around TE's AEC technology, potentially enhancing its ability to commercialize and innovate in this area.
High-quality stock with momentum
TE Connectivity is recognized as a high-quality stock, with academic research suggesting such stocks outperform by 4-6% annually over long periods, supported by persistent quality and momentum.
Stable dividend payments
TE Connectivity's recent affirmation of a quarterly dividend underscores its commitment to returning value to shareholders, reflecting financial stability.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TEL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$217.64
52W Range Position
61%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$162.17
+34.2% from the low
52-Week High
$252.56
-13.8% from the high
1 Month
+8.54%
3 Month
+10.90%
YTD
-6.7%
1 Year
+32.9%
3Y CAGR
+17.2%
5Y CAGR
+11.0%
10Y CAGR
+13.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TEL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
19.4x
vs 34.2x median
-43% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.0%
vs +7.9% median
-37% below peer median
Net Margin
15.7%
vs 11.1% median
+41% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TEL TEL TE Connectivity Ltd. | $63.9B | 19.4x | +5.0% | 15.7% | Buy | +20.5% |
APH APH Amphenol Corporation | $201.6B | 34.2x | +15.0% | 17.3% | Buy | +11.5% |
HUB HUBB Hubbell Incorporated | $27.8B | 26.5x | +6.1% | 15.1% | Hold | +5.3% |
ROG ROG Rogers Corporation | $2.9B | 44.7x | +0.6% | -6.9% | Buy | -7.8% |
BDC BDC Belden Inc. | $4.8B | 15.4x | +7.9% | 8.5% | Buy | +23.7% |
GLW GLW Corning Incorporated | $167.5B | 61.2x | +10.7% | 11.1% | Buy | -13.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TEL Dividend and Capital Return
TEL returns capital mainly through $1.3B/year in buybacks (2.1% buyback yield), with a modest 1.23% dividend — combining for 3.3% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 15 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.1%
Dividend Yield
1.23%
Payout Ratio
43.6%
How TEL Splits Its Return
Div 1.23%
Buyback 2.1%
Dividend 1.23%Buybacks 2.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.69
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
15Y
3Y Div CAGR
8.4%
5Y Div CAGR
7.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.3B
Estimated Shares Retired
6M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
293M
At 2.1%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.27 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.78 | +9.4% | 2.1% | 3.3% |
| 2024 | $2.54 | +9.0% | 4.4% | 6.0% |
| 2023 | $2.33 | +6.9% | 2.4% | 4.3% |
| 2022 | $2.18 | +10.1% | 3.9% | 5.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsTEL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is TE Connectivity Ltd. (TEL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
TE Connectivity Ltd. (TEL) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 29 analysts covering the stock, 15 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $262, implying +20.5% from the current price of $218. The bear case scenario is $252 and the bull case is $527.
02What is the TEL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TEL is $262 based on 29 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $300 (+37.8% from today), and the low-end target is $226 (+3.8%). The base case model target is $400.
03Is TE Connectivity Ltd. (TEL) stock overvalued in 2026?
TEL trades at 19.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for TE Connectivity Ltd. (TEL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TEL in 2026 are: (1) Earnings Perception — Mixed Q2 Fiscal 2026 earnings led to a decline in stock price, reflecting investor concerns about performance. (2) Financial Strain — Increase in total liabilities in Q2 2026 suggests potential financial strain, adding downward pressure on the stock. (3) Market Sentiment — Stock has lost about 10% since January 2026, indicating negative market sentiment and bearish trends. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is TE Connectivity Ltd.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TEL will report consensus revenue of $19.4B (+5.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $10.68 (+8.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $20.7B in revenue.
06When does TE Connectivity Ltd. (TEL) report its next earnings?
TE Connectivity Ltd. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-22. Consensus expects EPS of $2.81 and revenue of $5.0B. Over recent quarters, TEL has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does TE Connectivity Ltd. generate?
TE Connectivity Ltd. (TEL) generated $3.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 18.3%. TEL returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.2% yield) and share repurchases ($1.3B TTM).