Upside case
Bull case
$558+56.1%
TER would need investors to value it at roughly 77x earnings — about 28x more generous than today's 50x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Teradyne, Inc. (TER) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
31
analysts
20 bullish · 0 bearish · 31 covering TER
Strong Buy
0
Buy
20
Hold
11
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$351
-1.7% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $558
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
31
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
49.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $55.9B
TER price targets
Three scenarios for where TER stock could go
Current
~$357
Confidence
58 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $357
Base
$357
Bull
$558
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$357+0.0%
This is close to how the market is already pricing TER — at roughly 50x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Teradyne, Inc.
TER · NASDAQTechnologySemiconductorsDecember year-end
Teradyne is a leading manufacturer of automated test equipment used to verify semiconductor chips and electronic systems before they reach customers. It generates revenue primarily from semiconductor test systems (~70% of sales) and industrial automation robots (~20%), with the remainder from system test and wireless test equipment. The company's moat comes from its deep expertise in complex test methodologies and long-standing relationships with major semiconductor manufacturers who rely on its equipment for quality assurance.
Market Cap
$55.9B
Revenue TTM
$3.8B
Net Income TTM
$854M
Net Margin
22.6%
TER Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+17.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.57/$0.54
Revenue
$652M/$651M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.85/$0.79
Revenue
$769M/$744M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.80/$1.38
Revenue
$1.1B/$977M
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.56/$2.11
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.57/$0.54 | +5.2% | $652M/$651M | +0.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.85/$0.79 | +7.6% | $769M/$744M | +3.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.80/$1.38 | +30.4% | $1.1B/$977M | +10.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.56/$2.11 | +21.3% | $1.3B/$1.2B | +6.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.2B
+10.6% YoY
FY2
$4.6B
+10.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$6.23
+15.1% YoY
FY2
$7.08
+13.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$553M
FCF Margin: 14.6%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
TER beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
TER Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $3.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product
83.4%
+15.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
TAIWAN, PROVINCE OF CHINA
36.2%
+91.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Product is the largest disclosed segment at 83.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 15.9% YoY.
TAIWAN, PROVINCE OF CHINA is the largest reported region at 36.2%, up 91.9% YoY.
TER Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $207 — implies -40.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
40.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TER
102.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+309% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
TER
102.6x
vs
Technology
26.7x
+284% premium
vs TER 5Y Avg P/E
Today
102.6x
vs
5Y Average
36.7x
+179% premium
Forward PE
49.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
+160%
Technology
22.1x
+124%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
102.6x
S&P 500
25.1x
+309%
Technology
26.7x
+284%
5Y Avg
36.7x
+179%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Technology
1.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
68.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
+348%
Technology
17.5x
+291%
5Y Avg
26.1x
+161%
Price/FCF
124.1x
S&P 500
21.1x
+489%
Technology
19.5x
+536%
5Y Avg
44.0x
+182%
Price/Sales
17.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+461%
Technology
2.4x
+617%
5Y Avg
7.3x
+141%
Dividend Yield
0.14%
S&P 500
1.87%
-93%
Technology
1.16%
-88%
5Y Avg
0.34%
-60%
| Metric | TER | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg TER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 49.5x | 19.1x+160% | 22.1x+124% | — |
| Trailing PE | 102.6x | 25.1x+309% | 26.7x+284% | 36.7x+179% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 68.2x | 15.2x+348% | 17.5x+291% | 26.1x+161% |
| Price/FCF | 124.1x | 21.1x+489% | 19.5x+536% | 44.0x+182% |
| Price/Sales | 17.5x | 3.1x+461% | 2.4x+617% | 7.3x+141% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.14% | 1.87% | 1.16% | 0.34% |
TER trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTER Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
TER generates $553M in free cash flow at a 14.6% margin — 19.8% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 1.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$3.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+30.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
58.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
26.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
22.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.42
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$553M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
14.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
19.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
20.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$294M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$53M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.1× FCF
~0.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
29.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.4%
Dividend
0.1%
Buyback
1.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$702M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.48
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
13.8%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
157M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTER Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
China Export Controls
U.S. export controls on high‑speed testers above 667 MHz create a complex licensing environment. China remains a vital market, so any tightening could limit Teradyne’s sales and force costly compliance or market exit.
High Risk
US‑China Trade Restrictions
Escalating trade restrictions between the U.S. and China add headwinds to growth and have already forced the company to spend hundreds of millions on relocating manufacturing out of China, increasing operational costs and supply‑chain complexity.
High Risk
Declining Operating Margins
Over the past five years Teradyne’s operating margin has fallen, and its free‑cash‑flow margin has also dropped, signaling shrinking profitability and raising concerns about future cash‑generation capacity.
High Risk
Low Long‑Term Revenue Growth
The company’s compounded annual growth rate in sales over the last five years has been tepid and below industry standards, limiting its ability to fund expansion and invest in R&D.
Medium
Global Economic Conditions
Heightened inflation, rising interest rates, bank failures and potential recession can cause wide fluctuations in Teradyne’s stock price and dampen demand for its testing solutions.
Medium
Supply‑Chain Disruptions
The global shortage of electrical components, including semiconductor chips, has already increased lead times, costs, and delivery delays in 2023 and may continue to pressure margins and product availability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TER Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
AI Chip Testing Dominance
Teradyne’s automated test equipment (ATE) accounts for over 60% of its Q4 revenue, driven by AI chip demand. Analysts project this share to rise to 70% by Q1 2026, positioning the company as a key partner for high‑performance AI compute testing. The focus on AI testing is a primary growth engine for the business.
Robotics Expansion via Universal Robots
The acquisition of Universal Robots has positioned Teradyne in the collaborative robot (cobot) and autonomous mobile robot (AMR) markets. Amazon’s automation initiatives could generate roughly $400 million in revenue for Teradyne’s robotics division, underscoring the substantial upside of this segment.
Robust Revenue Growth Outlook
Teradyne is expected to reach $5.0 billion in revenue by CY27. Q4 2025 revenue surged 44% year‑over‑year, with sales projected to climb 50% in FY26 and 30% in FY27, reflecting strong AI demand.
Technological Leadership & Moat
The company’s deep engineering talent and leading ATE technology create a wide economic moat. Its extensive investment in chip testing capabilities makes replication difficult for competitors.
Strategic Partnerships with Chipmakers
Teradyne maintains strong relationships with Intel, Samsung, Qualcomm, and Texas Instruments. Intel’s involvement in Elon Musk’s Terafab project signals increased chip production, likely boosting demand for Teradyne’s testing tools.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TER Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$357.10
52W Range Position
81%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$73.11
+388.4% from the low
52-Week High
$422.11
-15.4% from the high
1 Month
+13.21%
3 Month
+31.71%
YTD
+72.0%
1 Year
+373.4%
3Y CAGR
+56.8%
5Y CAGR
+23.5%
10Y CAGR
+34.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TER vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
49.5x
vs 43.1x median
+15% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+10.6%
vs +8.9% median
+20% above peer median
Net Margin
22.6%
vs 14.3% median
+57% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TER TER Teradyne, Inc. | $55.9B | 49.5x | +10.6% | 22.6% | Buy | -1.7% |
AMA AMAT Applied Materials, Inc. | $325.8B | 37.1x | +8.9% | 24.7% | Buy | +3.8% |
KLA KLAC KLA Corporation | $227.7B | 47.1x | +9.4% | 35.7% | Buy | +5.0% |
COH COHU Cohu, Inc. | $2.3B | 91.0x | +0.8% | -11.5% | Buy | +2.7% |
ACL ACLS Axcelis Technologies, Inc. | $4.5B | 38.3x | -6.2% | 14.3% | Buy | -8.4% |
ONT ONTO Onto Innovation Inc. | $15.2B | 43.1x | +20.6% | 10.3% | Buy | +1.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TER Dividend and Capital Return
TER returns capital mainly through $702M/year in buybacks (1.3% buyback yield), with a modest 0.14% dividend — combining for 1.4% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.3%
Dividend Yield
0.14%
Payout Ratio
13.8%
How TER Splits Its Return
Buyback 1.3%
Dividend 0.14%Buybacks 1.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.48
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
2.9%
5Y Div CAGR
3.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$702M
Estimated Shares Retired
2M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
157M
At 1.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.13 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.48 | 0.0% | 2.3% | 2.6% |
| 2024 | $0.48 | +9.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% |
| 2023 | $0.44 | 0.0% | 2.2% | 2.6% |
| 2022 | $0.44 | +10.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsTER Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Teradyne, Inc. (TER) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Teradyne, Inc. (TER) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 31 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 11 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $351, implying -1.7% from the current price of $357.
02What is the TER stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TER is $351 based on 31 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $440 (+23.2% from today), and the low-end target is $220 (-38.4%). The base case model target is $357.
03Is Teradyne, Inc. (TER) stock overvalued in 2026?
TER trades at 49.5x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Teradyne, Inc. (TER) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TER in 2026 are: (1) China Export Controls — U. (2) US‑China Trade Restrictions — Escalating trade restrictions between the U. (3) Declining Operating Margins — Over the past five years Teradyne’s operating margin has fallen, and its free‑cash‑flow margin has also dropped, signaling shrinking profitability and raising concerns about future cash‑generation capacity. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Teradyne, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TER will report consensus revenue of $4.2B (+10.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $6.23 (+15.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.6B in revenue.
06When does Teradyne, Inc. (TER) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for TER is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Teradyne, Inc. generate?
Teradyne, Inc. (TER) generated $553M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 14.6%. TER returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.1% yield) and share repurchases ($702M TTM).