Upside case
Bull case
$708+72.4%
AMAT would need investors to value it at roughly 64x earnings — about 27x more generous than today's 37x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
53
analysts
42 bullish · 0 bearish · 53 covering AMAT
Strong Buy
1
Buy
41
Hold
11
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$426
+3.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$289 – $708
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
53
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
37.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $325.8B
AMAT price targets
Three scenarios for where AMAT stock could go
Current
~$411
Confidence
68 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $411
Bear
$289
Base
$581
Bull
$708
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$581+41.5%
At 52x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$289-29.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 11x multiple contraction could push AMAT down roughly 30% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Applied Materials, Inc.
AMAT · NASDAQTechnologySemiconductorsOctober year-end
Applied Materials is the world's leading supplier of semiconductor manufacturing equipment and services. It generates about 70% of revenue from selling semiconductor fabrication systems — with the remaining 30% from services and display equipment — through its three main segments: Semiconductor Systems, Applied Global Services, and Display. Its competitive moat stems from its comprehensive portfolio across the entire chipmaking process and deep customer relationships with major foundries like TSMC, Intel, and Samsung.
Market Cap
$325.8B
Revenue TTM
$28.4B
Net Income TTM
$7.0B
Net Margin
24.7%
AMAT Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$2.39/$2.31
Revenue
$7.1B/$7.1B
Q3 2025
EPS
$2.48/$2.36
Revenue
$7.3B/$7.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.17/$2.11
Revenue
$6.8B/$6.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.38/$2.21
Revenue
$7.0B/$6.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $2.39/$2.31 | +3.5% | $7.1B/$7.1B | -0.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.48/$2.36 | +5.1% | $7.3B/$7.2B | +1.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.17/$2.11 | +2.8% | $6.8B/$6.7B | +1.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.38/$2.21 | +7.7% | $7.0B/$6.9B | +2.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$30.9B
+8.9% YoY
FY2
$34.6B
+12.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$10.50
+19.7% YoY
FY2
$12.25
+16.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$5.7B
FCF Margin: 20.1%
Next Earnings
May 14, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.66
Expected Revenue
$7.7B
AMAT beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
AMAT Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $27.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Semiconductor Systems
73.7%
+1.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
CHINA
37.2%
+39.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Semiconductor Systems is the largest disclosed segment at 73.7% of FY 2024 revenue, up 1.1% YoY.
CHINA is the largest reported region at 37.2%, up 39.6% YoY.
AMAT Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $409 — implies +5.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
5.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AMAT
47.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+89% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
AMAT
47.4x
vs
Technology
26.7x
+77% premium
vs AMAT 5Y Avg P/E
Today
47.4x
vs
5Y Average
19.5x
+143% premium
Forward PE
37.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
+94%
Technology
22.1x
+68%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
47.4x
S&P 500
25.1x
+89%
Technology
26.7x
+77%
5Y Avg
19.5x
+143%
PEG Ratio
2.76x
S&P 500
1.72x
+61%
Technology
1.52x
+81%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
38.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
+154%
Technology
17.5x
+122%
5Y Avg
16.3x
+137%
Price/FCF
57.2x
S&P 500
21.1x
+171%
Technology
19.5x
+193%
5Y Avg
22.2x
+157%
Price/Sales
11.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+267%
Technology
2.4x
+370%
5Y Avg
5.0x
+130%
Dividend Yield
0.42%
S&P 500
1.87%
-78%
Technology
1.16%
-64%
5Y Avg
0.83%
-50%
| Metric | AMAT | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg AMAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 37.1x | 19.1x+94% | 22.1x+68% | — |
| Trailing PE | 47.4x | 25.1x+89% | 26.7x+77% | 19.5x+143% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.76x | 1.72x+61% | 1.52x+81% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 38.7x | 15.2x+154% | 17.5x+122% | 16.3x+137% |
| Price/FCF | 57.2x | 21.1x+171% | 19.5x+193% | 22.2x+157% |
| Price/Sales | 11.5x | 3.1x+267% | 2.4x+370% | 5.0x+130% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.42% | 1.87% | 1.16% | 0.83% |
AMAT trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAMAT Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
AMAT generates $5.7B in free cash flow at a 20.1% margin — 33.3% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 1.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$28.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
48.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
29.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
24.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$8.77
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$5.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
20.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
33.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
19.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$7.2B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$686M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
34.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.9%
Dividend
0.4%
Buyback
1.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$4.9B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.71
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
19.8%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
808M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageAMAT Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
China Exposure & Regulation
A significant portion of Applied Materials’ revenue comes from China, exposing the company to U.S. export restrictions and geopolitical tensions. Recent U.S. government bans on advanced chipmaking equipment have already resulted in estimated revenue losses, and ongoing regulatory headwinds from both U.S. and Chinese authorities could further erode sales.
High Risk
Cyclical Semiconductor Dependence
Applied Materials’ performance is tightly linked to the semiconductor industry's cyclical nature, driven by global economic conditions, electronic product demand, and customer capacity utilization. This cyclicality can cause pronounced volatility in financial results, with sharp downturns during industry contractions.
High Risk
Customer Concentration Risk
The semiconductor manufacturing sector is highly concentrated, and Applied Materials relies on a small number of major customers. If a single large customer delays or cancels capacity expansion, it can directly and materially impact the company’s quarterly earnings.
Medium
Supply Chain Disruptions
The industry faces shortages of parts and materials, transportation capacity constraints, and shipment delays. Such disruptions can impede Applied Materials’ ability to meet customer demand and maintain efficient operations, potentially affecting revenue and margins.
Medium
Intense Competition
The semiconductor equipment market is highly competitive, with rapid technological advancements and evolving customer requirements. Applied Materials competes with established players and emerging regional competitors, which could pressure pricing and market share.
Medium
Goodwill & Intangible Asset Impairment
Applied Materials holds a significant amount of goodwill and other acquired intangible assets. Adverse industry or economic trends, reduced future cash flow estimates, or declines in stock price could trigger impairment charges, negatively impacting earnings.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AMAT Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
AI and HPC Demand Surge
The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence, high‑performance computing, and IoT workloads is driving a steep rise in semiconductor complexity. Applied Materials is positioned to capture this growth as AI workloads intensify, creating strong demand for its advanced wafer‑fabrication equipment.
Broadest Portfolio and Market Leadership
Applied Materials holds the industry's broadest equipment portfolio, giving it a leading share in wafer‑fabrication tools, especially deposition. Its integrated solutions across multiple chip‑manufacturing technologies foster sticky customer relationships and reinforce its market‑lead position.
Higher‑Margin Services Expansion
The company's services segment is growing, delivering higher‑margin revenue that can cushion the cyclical nature of the WFE market. This recurring‑revenue stream enhances earnings quality and provides a buffer against short‑term equipment‑spending fluctuations.
Technological Innovation in Advanced Packaging
Applied Materials is capitalizing on trends such as advanced packaging, gate‑all‑around (GAA) transistors, and dedicated AI‑chip tooling. These innovations align with the industry's shift toward more complex, power‑efficient chips, positioning the firm to meet evolving customer needs.
Strong Balance Sheet and Low Leverage
The firm maintains a solid market capitalization and a low debt‑to‑equity ratio, reflecting effective liability management. This financial strength supports continued investment in R&D and capacity expansion without undue fiscal risk.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AMAT Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$410.82
52W Range Position
96%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$151.51
+171.2% from the low
52-Week High
$420.50
-2.3% from the high
1 Month
+16.50%
3 Month
+35.14%
YTD
+52.8%
1 Year
+165.7%
3Y CAGR
+52.4%
5Y CAGR
+25.8%
10Y CAGR
+35.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AMAT vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
37.1x
vs 47.1x median
-21% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.9%
vs +20.6% median
-57% below peer median
Net Margin
24.7%
vs 29.4% median
-16% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AMA AMAT Applied Materials, Inc. | $325.8B | 37.1x | +8.9% | 24.7% | Buy | +3.8% |
LRC LRCX Lam Research Corporation | $344.4B | 48.8x | +9.6% | 30.9% | Buy | +5.4% |
KLA KLAC KLA Corporation | $227.7B | 47.1x | +9.4% | 35.7% | Buy | +5.0% |
ASM ASML ASML Holding N.V. | $560.1B | 44.6x | +22.3% | 29.4% | Buy | +10.6% |
ONT ONTO Onto Innovation Inc. | $15.2B | 43.1x | +20.6% | 10.3% | Buy | +1.1% |
NVM NVMI Nova Ltd. | $15.1B | 49.9x | +23.7% | 29.4% | Buy | -5.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AMAT Dividend and Capital Return
AMAT returns capital mainly through $4.9B/year in buybacks (1.5% buyback yield), with a modest 0.42% dividend — combining for 1.9% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 8 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.5%
Dividend Yield
0.42%
Payout Ratio
19.8%
How AMAT Splits Its Return
Div 0.42%
Buyback 1.5%
Dividend 0.42%Buybacks 1.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.71
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
8Y
3Y Div CAGR
20.4%
5Y Div CAGR
15.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$4.9B
Estimated Shares Retired
12M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
808M
At 1.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.99 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.78 | +17.1% | 2.6% | 3.4% |
| 2024 | $1.52 | +24.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% |
| 2023 | $1.22 | +19.6% | 2.0% | 2.9% |
| 2022 | $1.02 | +8.5% | 7.8% | 8.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsAMAT Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 53 analysts covering the stock, 42 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 11 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $426, implying +3.8% from the current price of $411. The bear case scenario is $289 and the bull case is $708.
02What is the AMAT stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AMAT is $426 based on 53 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $500 (+21.7% from today), and the low-end target is $290 (-29.4%). The base case model target is $581.
03Is Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) stock overvalued in 2026?
AMAT trades at 37.1x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AMAT in 2026 are: (1) China Exposure & Regulation — A significant portion of Applied Materials’ revenue comes from China, exposing the company to U. (2) Cyclical Semiconductor Dependence — Applied Materials’ performance is tightly linked to the semiconductor industry's cyclical nature, driven by global economic conditions, electronic product demand, and customer capacity utilization. (3) Customer Concentration Risk — The semiconductor manufacturing sector is highly concentrated, and Applied Materials relies on a small number of major customers. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Applied Materials, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AMAT will report consensus revenue of $30.9B (+8.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $10.50 (+19.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $34.6B in revenue.
06When does Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) report its next earnings?
Applied Materials, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-14. Consensus expects EPS of $2.66 and revenue of $7.7B. Over recent quarters, AMAT has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Applied Materials, Inc. generate?
Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) generated $5.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 20.1%. AMAT returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.4% yield) and share repurchases ($4.9B TTM).