Upside case
Bull case
$370+90.2%
THC would need investors to value it at roughly 21x earnings — about 10x more generous than today's 11x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Tenet Healthcare Corporation (THC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
32
analysts
25 bullish · 0 bearish · 32 covering THC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
25
Hold
7
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$268
+37.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$64 – $370
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
32
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
11.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $17.0B
THC price targets
Three scenarios for where THC stock could go
Current
~$195
Confidence
59 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $195
Bear
$64
Base
$291
Bull
$370
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$291+49.4%
At 16x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$64-67.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 7x multiple contraction could push THC down roughly 67% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Tenet Healthcare Corporation
THC · NYSEHealthcareMedical - Care FacilitiesDecember year-end
Tenet Healthcare is a diversified healthcare services company that operates hospitals, ambulatory surgery centers, and urgent care facilities. It generates revenue primarily from hospital operations (acute care services) and ambulatory care centers, with additional income from its Conifer segment providing revenue cycle management services to other healthcare providers. The company's scale and integrated network of facilities across multiple states create operational efficiencies and referral pathways that serve as its competitive advantage.
Market Cap
$17.0B
Revenue TTM
$21.5B
Net Income TTM
$1.7B
Net Margin
7.9%
THC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+34.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$4.02/$2.87
Revenue
$5.3B/$5.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.70/$3.34
Revenue
$5.3B/$5.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$4.70/$4.07
Revenue
$5.5B/$5.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$4.82/$4.21
Revenue
$5.4B/$5.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $4.02/$2.87 | +40.1% | $5.3B/$5.2B | +2.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.70/$3.34 | +10.8% | $5.3B/$5.3B | +0.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.70/$4.07 | +15.5% | $5.5B/$5.5B | +1.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.82/$4.21 | +14.5% | $5.4B/$5.4B | -0.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$22.1B
+3.0% YoY
FY2
$22.8B
+3.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$20.56
+5.7% YoY
FY2
$23.14
+12.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.3B
FCF Margin: 15.6%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
THC beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
THC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $10.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Ambulatory Care
50.2%
+14.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Ambulatory Care is the largest disclosed segment at 50.2% of FY 2025 revenue, up 14.1% YoY.
THC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $368 — implies +100.7% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
100.7%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
THC
12.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
50% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
THC
12.6x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
43% discount
vs THC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
12.6x
vs
5Y Average
10.5x
+20% premium
Forward PE
11.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
-42%
Healthcare
19.0x
-42%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
12.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
-50%
Healthcare
22.1x
-43%
5Y Avg
10.5x
+20%
PEG Ratio
0.38x
S&P 500
1.75x
-78%
Healthcare
1.52x
-75%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
6.4x
S&P 500
15.3x
-58%
Healthcare
14.1x
-55%
5Y Avg
5.7x
+11%
Price/FCF
6.7x
S&P 500
21.3x
-68%
Healthcare
18.7x
-64%
5Y Avg
9.9x
-32%
Price/Sales
0.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-74%
Healthcare
2.8x
-72%
5Y Avg
0.5x
+56%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Healthcare
1.40%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | THC | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg THC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 11.0x | 19.1x-42% | 19.0x-42% | — |
| Trailing PE | 12.6x | 25.2x-50% | 22.1x-43% | 10.5x+20% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.38x | 1.75x-78% | 1.52x-75% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.4x | 15.3x-58% | 14.1x-55% | 5.7x+11% |
| Price/FCF | 6.7x | 21.3x-68% | 18.7x-64% | 9.9x-32% |
| Price/Sales | 0.8x | 3.1x-74% | 2.8x-72% | 0.5x+56% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.40% | — |
THC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTHC Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
THC generates $3.3B in free cash flow at a 15.6% margin — 13.2% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 8.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$21.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
42.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
16.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
7.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$19.44
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.3B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
15.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
13.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.9B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$10.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.1× FCF
~3.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
19.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
8.4%
Dividend
—
Buyback
8.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.4B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
88M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTHC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Financial stability concerns
Tenet Healthcare's dependence on its higher-margin USPI business raises significant concerns about its financial stability and competitiveness in a changing healthcare industry. The company's high levels of leverage relative to its peers can amplify both upside and downside risks.
High Risk
Overvaluation risk
Current assessments indicate that THC stock is trading 17.5% above its GF Value™ of $151.10 and 22.9% higher than its estimated fair value. This overvaluation could lead to a significant price correction if market sentiment shifts.
Medium
Regulatory changes impact
The expiration of HIX subsidies and potential reductions in ACA subsidies could negatively impact future admissions and revenue mix for Tenet Healthcare. These regulatory changes may create headwinds that affect the company's growth trajectory.
Medium
Insider selling activity
Recent reports indicate significant insider selling over the last three months, with no corresponding buying activity. This trend may signal a lack of confidence among insiders regarding the company's future performance.
Lower
M&A activity risks
High levels of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity pose risks to Tenet Healthcare's operational stability. The integration of new entities can lead to disruptions and may not always yield the expected financial benefits.
Lower
Minimal organic growth
Tenet Healthcare has experienced minimal organic growth, which raises concerns about its ability to sustain revenue increases in the long term. This stagnation could limit the company's competitive edge in the healthcare market.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why THC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Growth Potential
Tenet Healthcare is expected to experience robust growth in the coming years, with a potential 10% sequential increase in EBITDA in the first quarter of 2026. The company also has significant potential for organic growth.
Cash Generation
The company is generating a substantial amount of cash, with projections suggesting it could generate close to 50% of its market cap in the next three years.
Business Transformation
Tenet has undergone a significant business transformation, including deleveraging and improved performance, which has positioned it strongly despite potential headwinds like the expiration of HIX subsidies.
Analyst Sentiment
A significant majority of analysts covering Tenet Healthcare have a 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy' rating, reflecting confidence in its future prospects.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
THC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$194.51
52W Range Position
48%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$146.31
+32.9% from the low
52-Week High
$247.21
-21.3% from the high
1 Month
+2.22%
3 Month
-3.41%
YTD
-2.5%
1 Year
+28.4%
3Y CAGR
+40.8%
5Y CAGR
+24.4%
10Y CAGR
+20.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
THC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
11.0x
vs 13.6x median
-20% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.0%
vs +5.6% median
-46% below peer median
Net Margin
7.9%
vs 6.9% median
+15% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
THC THC Tenet Healthcare Corporation | $17.0B | 11.0x | +3.0% | 7.9% | Buy | +37.8% |
HCA HCA HCA Healthcare, Inc. | $96.0B | 14.2x | +5.6% | 9.0% | Buy | +22.8% |
CYH CYH Community Health Systems, Inc. | $404M | — | -7.0% | -0.4% | Hold | +2.1% |
UHS UHS Universal Health Services, Inc. | $10.5B | 7.2x | +7.6% | 8.6% | Hold | +37.4% |
ENS ENSG The Ensign Group, Inc. | $10.3B | 23.4x | +17.0% | 6.9% | Buy | +26.4% |
SEM SEM Select Medical Holdings Corporation | $2.0B | 13.1x | +1.4% | 2.4% | Hold | +9.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
THC Dividend and Capital Return
THC returns 8.4% annually — null% through dividends and 8.4% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
8.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
8.4%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.4B
Estimated Shares Retired
7M
Approx. Share Reduction
8.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
88M
At 8.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | $0.03 | — | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1993 | $0.96 | -23.4% | 1.1% | 3.5% |
| 1992 | $1.25 | +9.3% | 0.8% | 3.9% |
| 1991 | $1.15 | -67.4% | 3.5% | 5.3% |
| 1990 | $3.51 | +276.4% | 0.0% | 1.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsTHC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Tenet Healthcare Corporation (THC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Tenet Healthcare Corporation (THC) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 32 analysts covering the stock, 25 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 7 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $268, implying +37.8% from the current price of $195. The bear case scenario is $64 and the bull case is $370.
02What is the THC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for THC is $268 based on 32 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $288 (+48.1% from today), and the low-end target is $250 (+28.5%). The base case model target is $291.
03Is Tenet Healthcare Corporation (THC) stock overvalued in 2026?
THC trades at 11.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Tenet Healthcare Corporation (THC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for THC in 2026 are: (1) Financial stability concerns — Tenet Healthcare's dependence on its higher-margin USPI business raises significant concerns about its financial stability and competitiveness in a changing healthcare industry. (2) Overvaluation risk — Current assessments indicate that THC stock is trading 17. (3) Regulatory changes impact — The expiration of HIX subsidies and potential reductions in ACA subsidies could negatively impact future admissions and revenue mix for Tenet Healthcare. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Tenet Healthcare Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates THC will report consensus revenue of $22.1B (+3.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $20.56 (+5.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $22.8B in revenue.
06When does Tenet Healthcare Corporation (THC) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for THC is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Tenet Healthcare Corporation generate?
Tenet Healthcare Corporation (THC) generated $3.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 15.6%. THC returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($1.4B TTM).