Upside case
Bull case
$253+46.8%
THC would need investors to value it at roughly 14x earnings — about 5x more generous than today's 10x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Tenet Healthcare Corporation (THC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
32
analysts
26 bullish · 0 bearish · 32 covering THC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
26
Hold
6
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$260
+50.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$121 – $253
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
32
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
9.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $15.1B
THC price targets
Three scenarios for where THC stock could go
Current
~$173
Confidence
57 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $173
Bear
$121
Base
$192
Bull
$253
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$192+11.4%
This is close to how the market is already pricing THC — at roughly 11x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$121-29.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push THC down roughly 30% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Tenet Healthcare Corporation
THC · NYSEHealthcareMedical - Care FacilitiesDecember year-end
Tenet Healthcare is a diversified healthcare services company that operates hospitals, ambulatory surgery centers, and urgent care facilities. It generates revenue primarily from hospital operations (acute care services) and ambulatory care centers, with additional income from its Conifer segment providing revenue cycle management services to other healthcare providers. The company's scale and integrated network of facilities across multiple states create operational efficiencies and referral pathways that serve as its competitive advantage.
Market Cap
$15.1B
Revenue TTM
$21.5B
Net Income TTM
$1.7B
Net Margin
7.9%
THC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+34.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$4.02/$2.87
Revenue
$5.3B/$5.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.70/$3.34
Revenue
$5.3B/$5.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$4.70/$4.07
Revenue
$5.5B/$5.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$4.82/$4.17
Revenue
$5.4B/$5.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $4.02/$2.87 | +40.1% | $5.3B/$5.2B | +2.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.70/$3.34 | +10.8% | $5.3B/$5.3B | +0.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.70/$4.07 | +15.5% | $5.5B/$5.5B | +1.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.82/$4.17 | +15.6% | $5.4B/$5.4B | -0.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$22.2B
+3.3% YoY
FY2
$22.7B
+2.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$17.62
-9.4% YoY
FY2
$17.05
-3.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.3B
FCF Margin: 15.6%
Next Earnings
July 28, 2026
Expected EPS
$4.18
Expected Revenue
$5.4B
THC beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
THC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $10.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Ambulatory Care
50.2%
+14.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Ambulatory Care is the largest disclosed segment at 50.2% of FY 2025 revenue, up 14.1% YoY.
THC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $268 — implies +55.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
55.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
THC
11.1x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
54% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
THC
11.1x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
50% discount
vs THC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
11.1x
vs
5Y Average
10.5x
+6% premium
Forward PE
9.6x
S&P 500
18.8x
-49%
Healthcare
18.3x
-47%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
11.1x
S&P 500
24.4x
-54%
Healthcare
22.1x
-50%
5Y Avg
10.5x
+6%
PEG Ratio
0.34x
S&P 500
1.66x
-80%
Healthcare
1.59x
-79%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
5.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
-61%
Healthcare
14.2x
-58%
5Y Avg
5.7x
+3%
Price/FCF
6.0x
S&P 500
20.7x
-71%
Healthcare
18.5x
-68%
5Y Avg
9.9x
-40%
Price/Sales
0.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
-77%
Healthcare
2.6x
-73%
5Y Avg
0.5x
+38%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Healthcare
1.50%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | THC | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg THC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 9.6x | 18.8x-49% | 18.3x-47% | — |
| Trailing PE | 11.1x | 24.4x-54% | 22.1x-50% | 10.5x |
| PEG Ratio | 0.34x | 1.66x-80% | 1.59x-79% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.9x | 15.2x-61% | 14.2x-58% | 5.7x |
| Price/FCF | 6.0x | 20.7x-71% | 18.5x-68% | 9.9x-40% |
| Price/Sales | 0.7x | 3.1x-77% | 2.6x-73% | 0.5x+38% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.50% | — |
THC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTHC Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
THC generates $3.3B in free cash flow at a 15.6% margin — 13.2% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 9.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$21.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
42.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
16.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
7.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$19.44
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.3B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
15.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
13.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.9B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$10.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.1× FCF
~3.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
19.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
9.5%
Dividend
—
Buyback
9.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.4B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
88M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTHC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Insider Selling
Recent insider selling activity could indicate lack of confidence in the company's future performance despite strong momentum.
Medium
Hospital Segment Margin
The mature, lower-margin hospital segment may drag overall profitability despite growth in the ambulatory surgery division.
High Risk
Execution Risk
The strategy to expand outpatient footprint while divesting non-core hospitals carries execution risks that could impact growth.
Medium
Market Volatility
Short-term pullbacks in share price reflect potential volatility in dynamic healthcare markets.
Lower
Regulatory Risks
The company faces standard regulatory risks inherent in the healthcare industry, though not explicitly highlighted in recent snippets.
High Risk
Financial Health
Investors should review Tenet Healthcare's financial health and fundamental analysis before investing, as risks may not be fully priced in.
Medium
Guidance Uncertainty
While 2026 guidance is positive, uncertainties in achieving projected EBITDA ranges could affect investor sentiment.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why THC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong financial performance
Tenet Healthcare reported strong first-quarter 2026 results with net income available to common shareholders reaching $702 million, showing significant growth compared to the previous year.
Hospital foot traffic growth
Tenet's hospital foot traffic in April outpaced peers, indicating stronger-than-expected second-quarter volumes and operational resilience.
Investor confidence
Tenet Healthcare executives presented at the Bank of America Global Healthcare Conference 2026, sharing updates and reinforcing investor confidence in the company's outlook.
Market positioning
Tenet Healthcare operates in the Healthcare sector, specifically Medical Care Facilities, and is well-positioned in the market with a structured investment case based on fundamentals and valuation multiples.
Analyst coverage
MarketBeat offers comprehensive SEC filings and analyst reports for Tenet Healthcare, providing transparency and detailed insights for investors.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
THC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$172.57
52W Range Position
26%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$146.60
+17.7% from the low
52-Week High
$247.21
-30.2% from the high
1 Month
-10.33%
3 Month
-15.08%
YTD
-13.5%
1 Year
+3.0%
3Y CAGR
+30.1%
5Y CAGR
+21.2%
10Y CAGR
+20.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
THC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
9.6x
vs 13.0x median
-26% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.3%
vs +6.8% median
-51% below peer median
Net Margin
7.9%
vs 6.9% median
+15% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
THC THC Tenet Healthcare Corporation | $15.1B | 9.6x | +3.3% | 7.9% | Buy | +50.4% |
HCA HCA HCA Healthcare, Inc. | $83.9B | 12.4x | +6.8% | 9.0% | Buy | +34.5% |
CYH CYH Community Health Systems, Inc. | $426M | — | +2.9% | -0.4% | Hold | -3.0% |
UHS UHS Universal Health Services, Inc. | $8.8B | 6.0x | +7.4% | 8.6% | Hold | +53.0% |
ENS ENSG The Ensign Group, Inc. | $9.0B | 20.3x | +10.1% | 6.9% | Buy | +44.7% |
SEM SEM Select Medical Holdings Corporation | $2.1B | 13.6x | +2.4% | 2.4% | Hold | +7.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
THC Dividend and Capital Return
THC returns 9.5% annually — null% through dividends and 9.5% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
9.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
9.5%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
6.3%
5Y Div CAGR
7.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.4B
Estimated Shares Retired
8M
Approx. Share Reduction
9.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
88M
At 9.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | $0.03 | — | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1993 | $0.96 | -23.4% | 1.1% | 3.5% |
| 1992 | $1.25 | +9.3% | 0.8% | 3.9% |
| 1991 | $1.15 | -67.4% | 3.5% | 5.3% |
| 1990 | $3.51 | +276.4% | 0.0% | 1.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsTHC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Tenet Healthcare Corporation (THC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Tenet Healthcare Corporation (THC) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 32 analysts covering the stock, 26 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 6 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $260, implying +50.4% from the current price of $173. The bear case scenario is $121 and the bull case is $253.
02What is the THC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for THC is $260 based on 32 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $288 (+66.9% from today), and the low-end target is $210 (+21.7%). The base case model target is $192.
03Is Tenet Healthcare Corporation (THC) stock overvalued in 2026?
THC trades at 9.6x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Tenet Healthcare Corporation (THC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for THC in 2026 are: (1) Insider Selling — Recent insider selling activity could indicate lack of confidence in the company's future performance despite strong momentum. (2) Execution Risk — The strategy to expand outpatient footprint while divesting non-core hospitals carries execution risks that could impact growth. (3) Financial Health — Investors should review Tenet Healthcare's financial health and fundamental analysis before investing, as risks may not be fully priced in. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Tenet Healthcare Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates THC will report consensus revenue of $22.2B (+3.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $17.62 (-9.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $22.7B in revenue.
06When does Tenet Healthcare Corporation (THC) report its next earnings?
Tenet Healthcare Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-28. Consensus expects EPS of $4.18 and revenue of $5.4B. Over recent quarters, THC has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Tenet Healthcare Corporation generate?
Tenet Healthcare Corporation (THC) generated $3.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 15.6%. THC returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($1.4B TTM).