Upside case
Bull case
$725+68.8%
HCA would need investors to value it at roughly 24x earnings — about 10x more generous than today's 14x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
46
analysts
30 bullish · 2 bearish · 46 covering HCA
Strong Buy
0
Buy
30
Hold
14
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$527
+22.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$450 – $725
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
46
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
14.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $96.0B
HCA price targets
Three scenarios for where HCA stock could go
Current
~$429
Confidence
81 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $429
Bear
$450
Base
$545
Bull
$725
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$545+26.9%
At 18x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$450+4.8%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push HCA down roughly 5% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
HCA Healthcare, Inc.
HCA · NYSEHealthcareMedical - Care FacilitiesDecember year-end
HCA Healthcare is one of the largest for-profit hospital operators in the United States, providing comprehensive medical and surgical services through its network of acute care hospitals and outpatient facilities. It generates revenue primarily from patient services — including inpatient hospital stays, outpatient procedures, and emergency care — with the vast majority coming from government programs like Medicare and Medicaid alongside private insurance reimbursements. The company's scale advantage — operating over 180 hospitals concentrated in high-growth markets — creates significant purchasing power with suppliers and negotiating leverage with payers.
Market Cap
$96.0B
Revenue TTM
$75.6B
Net Income TTM
$6.8B
Net Margin
9.0%
HCA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+8.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$6.84/$6.29
Revenue
$18.6B/$18.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$6.96/$5.79
Revenue
$19.2B/$18.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$8.01/$7.46
Revenue
$19.5B/$19.7B
Q2 2026
EPS
$7.15/$7.12
Revenue
$19.1B/$19.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $6.84/$6.29 | +8.7% | $18.6B/$18.5B | +0.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.96/$5.79 | +20.2% | $19.2B/$18.6B | +3.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.01/$7.46 | +7.4% | $19.5B/$19.7B | -0.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.15/$7.12 | +0.4% | $19.1B/$19.1B | +0.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$79.8B
+5.6% YoY
FY2
$85.2B
+6.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$31.95
+8.7% YoY
FY2
$36.00
+12.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$7.7B
FCF Margin: 10.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
HCA beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
HCA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $73.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Managed Care And Other Insurers
50.5%
+5.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
American Group
36.5%
+7.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Managed Care And Other Insurers is the largest disclosed segment at 50.5% of FY 2025 revenue, up 5.8% YoY.
American Group is the largest reported region at 36.5%, up 7.5% YoY.
HCA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $529 — implies +22.1% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
22.1%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
HCA
15.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
40% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
HCA
15.1x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
32% discount
vs HCA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
15.1x
vs
5Y Average
13.8x
+10% premium
Forward PE
14.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
-26%
Healthcare
19.0x
-25%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
15.1x
S&P 500
25.2x
-40%
Healthcare
22.1x
-32%
5Y Avg
13.8x
+10%
PEG Ratio
0.72x
S&P 500
1.75x
-59%
Healthcare
1.52x
-53%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
9.4x
S&P 500
15.3x
-39%
Healthcare
14.1x
-34%
5Y Avg
9.3x
+0%
Price/FCF
12.5x
S&P 500
21.3x
-41%
Healthcare
18.7x
-33%
5Y Avg
15.3x
-19%
Price/Sales
1.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-59%
Healthcare
2.8x
-55%
5Y Avg
1.3x
+1%
Dividend Yield
0.69%
S&P 500
1.88%
-64%
Healthcare
1.40%
-51%
5Y Avg
0.81%
-15%
| Metric | HCA | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg HCA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 14.2x | 19.1x-26% | 19.0x-25% | — |
| Trailing PE | 15.1x | 25.2x-40% | 22.1x-32% | 13.8x |
| PEG Ratio | 0.72x | 1.75x-59% | 1.52x-53% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.4x | 15.3x-39% | 14.1x-34% | 9.3x |
| Price/FCF | 12.5x | 21.3x-41% | 18.7x-33% | 15.3x-19% |
| Price/Sales | 1.3x | 3.1x-59% | 2.8x-55% | 1.3x |
| Dividend Yield | 0.69% | 1.88% | 1.40% | 0.81% |
HCA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolHCA Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
HCA generates $7.7B in free cash flow at a 10.2% margin — 19.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 11.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$75.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+7.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
41.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
15.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
9.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$29.40
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$7.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
10.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
19.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$49.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
6.4× FCF
~6.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
11.2%
Dividend
0.7%
Buyback
10.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$10.1B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.94
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
10.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
224M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageHCA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Government reimbursement changes
Reductions in Medicare and Medicaid payments, including the lapse of enhanced Affordable Care Act premium tax credits and changes to Medicaid supplemental payments, are projected to significantly hit HCA’s adjusted EBITDA in 2026. The company’s revenue streams are highly sensitive to these policy shifts, creating substantial uncertainty.
High Risk
Indebtedness and interest risk
HCA’s ability to incur additional debt could amplify existing interest rate exposure. If cash flow generation falters, servicing debt or refinancing on favorable terms may become challenging, potentially impacting liquidity and capital structure.
High Risk
Legal and regulatory enforcement
The company faces enforcement of fraud and abuse statutes and state‑level Certificate of Need (CON) programs that require prior approval for facility expansion. Unsuccessful legal challenges or regulatory inquiries can lead to adverse publicity and costly defense expenses.
Medium
Staffing shortages and labor costs
Competition for qualified nurses and other healthcare professionals, coupled with potential union activity, can increase labor costs and strain operations. Reports indicate staffing levels below industry averages in some states, raising concerns about patient safety and care quality.
Medium
Natural disaster exposure
Coastal facilities in Florida and Texas are vulnerable to hurricanes and other natural disasters, which can cause temporary patient volume declines, facility closures, supply chain disruptions, and IT outages. Severe storms could result in uninsured losses despite insurance coverage.
Lower
Competition from non‑profit hospitals
While HCA is a large player, it competes with non‑profit hospitals that may offer alternative care models or pricing structures, potentially eroding market share and pricing power.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why HCA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Strong Q4 2025 Financial Growth
HCA Healthcare’s Q4 2025 revenue rose 6.7% to $19.513 billion, while net income jumped 30.6% to $1.878 billion. Adjusted EPS of $8.01 beat consensus estimates, and adjusted EBITDA grew 10.8% to $4.114 billion. Full‑year 2025 revenue reached $75.6 billion, a 7.1% increase from the prior year.
Aggressive Capex and Outpatient Expansion
The company is pursuing a multi‑billion dollar capital‑expenditure plan, targeting expansion in high‑growth Sunbelt states and adding 30‑40 ambulatory surgery centers (ASCs) each year. It is also investing heavily in technology and digital platforms, while prioritizing outpatient care as a core growth engine, with outpatient revenue growing faster than inpatient.
Robust Shareholder Return Program
HCA has authorized a new $10 billion share‑repurchase program and has increased its quarterly dividend to $0.78 per share, underscoring its commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Undervalued Market Position & Scale
Despite recent stock performance, a discounted cash flow analysis suggests a fair value well above the current share price. HCA remains the largest for‑profit hospital operator in the U.S., with a growing hospital and bed count that supports its leading market share.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
HCA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$429.45
52W Range Position
44%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$330.00
+30.1% from the low
52-Week High
$556.52
-22.8% from the high
1 Month
-11.26%
3 Month
-14.40%
YTD
-8.7%
1 Year
+20.4%
3Y CAGR
+15.6%
5Y CAGR
+15.5%
10Y CAGR
+18.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
HCA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
14.2x
vs 12.0x median
+18% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.6%
vs +3.0% median
+84% above peer median
Net Margin
9.0%
vs 6.9% median
+30% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HCA HCA HCA Healthcare, Inc. | $96.0B | 14.2x | +5.6% | 9.0% | Buy | +22.8% |
THC THC Tenet Healthcare Corporation | $17.0B | 11.0x | +3.0% | 7.9% | Buy | +37.8% |
CYH CYH Community Health Systems, Inc. | $404M | — | -7.0% | -0.4% | Hold | +2.1% |
UHS UHS Universal Health Services, Inc. | $10.5B | 7.2x | +7.6% | 8.6% | Hold | +37.4% |
ENS ENSG The Ensign Group, Inc. | $10.3B | 23.4x | +17.0% | 6.9% | Buy | +26.4% |
SEM SEM Select Medical Holdings Corporation | $2.0B | 13.1x | +1.4% | 2.4% | Hold | +9.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
HCA Dividend and Capital Return
HCA returns capital mainly through $10.1B/year in buybacks (10.5% buyback yield), with a modest 0.69% dividend — combining for 11.2% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 5 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
11.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
10.5%
Dividend Yield
0.69%
Payout Ratio
10.0%
How HCA Splits Its Return
Buyback 10.5%
Dividend 0.69%Buybacks 10.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.94
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
8.7%
5Y Div CAGR
30.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$10.1B
Estimated Shares Retired
23M
Approx. Share Reduction
10.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
224M
At 10.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.56 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.88 | +9.1% | 9.3% | 10.0% |
| 2024 | $2.64 | +10.0% | 7.7% | 8.6% |
| 2023 | $2.40 | +7.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% |
| 2022 | $2.24 | +16.7% | 9.9% | 10.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsHCA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 46 analysts covering the stock, 30 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $527, implying +22.8% from the current price of $429. The bear case scenario is $450 and the bull case is $725.
02What is the HCA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for HCA is $527 based on 46 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $635 (+47.9% from today), and the low-end target is $436 (+1.5%). The base case model target is $545.
03Is HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) stock overvalued in 2026?
HCA trades at 14.2x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for HCA in 2026 are: (1) Government reimbursement changes — Reductions in Medicare and Medicaid payments, including the lapse of enhanced Affordable Care Act premium tax credits and changes to Medicaid supplemental payments, are projected to significantly hit HCA’s adjusted EBITDA in 2026. (2) Indebtedness and interest risk — HCA’s ability to incur additional debt could amplify existing interest rate exposure. (3) Legal and regulatory enforcement — The company faces enforcement of fraud and abuse statutes and state‑level Certificate of Need (CON) programs that require prior approval for facility expansion. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is HCA Healthcare, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates HCA will report consensus revenue of $79.8B (+5.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $31.95 (+8.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $85.2B in revenue.
06When does HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for HCA is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does HCA Healthcare, Inc. generate?
HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) generated $7.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 10.2%. HCA returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.7% yield) and share repurchases ($10.1B TTM).