Upside case
Bull case
$637+69.7%
HCA would need investors to value it at roughly 21x earnings — about 9x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
46
analysts
30 bullish · 2 bearish · 46 covering HCA
Strong Buy
0
Buy
30
Hold
14
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$505
+34.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$304 – $637
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
46
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $83.9B
HCA price targets
Three scenarios for where HCA stock could go
Current
~$375
Confidence
55 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $375
Bear
$304
Base
$483
Bull
$637
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$483+28.8%
At 16x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$304-18.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push HCA down roughly 19% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
HCA Healthcare, Inc.
HCA · NYSEHealthcareMedical - Care FacilitiesDecember year-end
HCA Healthcare is one of the largest for-profit hospital operators in the United States, providing comprehensive medical and surgical services through its network of acute care hospitals and outpatient facilities. It generates revenue primarily from patient services — including inpatient hospital stays, outpatient procedures, and emergency care — with the vast majority coming from government programs like Medicare and Medicaid alongside private insurance reimbursements. The company's scale advantage — operating over 180 hospitals concentrated in high-growth markets — creates significant purchasing power with suppliers and negotiating leverage with payers.
Market Cap
$83.9B
Revenue TTM
$75.6B
Net Income TTM
$6.8B
Net Margin
9.0%
HCA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+8.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$6.84/$6.29
Revenue
$18.6B/$18.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$6.96/$5.79
Revenue
$19.2B/$18.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$8.01/$7.46
Revenue
$19.5B/$19.7B
Q2 2026
EPS
$7.15/$7.12
Revenue
$19.1B/$19.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $6.84/$6.29 | +8.7% | $18.6B/$18.5B | +0.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.96/$5.79 | +20.2% | $19.2B/$18.6B | +3.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.01/$7.46 | +7.4% | $19.5B/$19.7B | -0.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.15/$7.12 | +0.4% | $19.1B/$19.1B | +0.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$80.8B
+6.8% YoY
FY2
$84.2B
+4.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$32.25
+9.7% YoY
FY2
$35.42
+9.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$7.7B
FCF Margin: 10.2%
Next Earnings
July 24, 2026
Expected EPS
$7.37
Expected Revenue
$19.4B
HCA beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
HCA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $73.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Managed Care And Other Insurers
50.5%
+5.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
American Group
36.5%
+7.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Managed Care And Other Insurers is the largest disclosed segment at 50.5% of FY 2025 revenue, up 5.8% YoY.
American Group is the largest reported region at 36.5%, up 7.5% YoY.
HCA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $259 — implies -31.0% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
31.0%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
HCA
13.2x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
46% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
HCA
13.2x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
40% discount
vs HCA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
13.2x
vs
5Y Average
13.8x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
12.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
-34%
Healthcare
18.3x
-32%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
13.2x
S&P 500
24.4x
-46%
Healthcare
22.1x
-40%
5Y Avg
13.8x
-4%
PEG Ratio
0.63x
S&P 500
1.66x
-62%
Healthcare
1.59x
-60%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
8.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
-44%
Healthcare
14.2x
-40%
5Y Avg
9.3x
-8%
Price/FCF
10.9x
S&P 500
20.7x
-47%
Healthcare
18.5x
-41%
5Y Avg
15.3x
-29%
Price/Sales
1.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-64%
Healthcare
2.6x
-58%
5Y Avg
1.3x
-12%
Dividend Yield
0.78%
S&P 500
1.91%
-59%
Healthcare
1.50%
-48%
5Y Avg
0.81%
-3%
| Metric | HCA | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg HCA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.4x | 18.8x-34% | 18.3x-32% | — |
| Trailing PE | 13.2x | 24.4x-46% | 22.1x-40% | 13.8x |
| PEG Ratio | 0.63x | 1.66x-62% | 1.59x-60% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.6x | 15.2x-44% | 14.2x-40% | 9.3x |
| Price/FCF | 10.9x | 20.7x-47% | 18.5x-41% | 15.3x-29% |
| Price/Sales | 1.1x | 3.1x-64% | 2.6x-58% | 1.3x-12% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.78% | 1.91% | 1.50% | 0.81% |
HCA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolHCA Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
HCA generates $7.7B in free cash flow at a 10.2% margin — 19.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 12.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$75.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+7.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
41.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
15.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
9.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$29.40
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$7.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
10.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
19.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$49.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
6.4× FCF
~6.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
12.8%
Dividend
0.8%
Buyback
12.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$10.1B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.94
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
10.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
224M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageHCA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Earnings Miss
HCA Healthcare's Q1 2026 earnings miss and reduced full-year forecast contributed to a significant stock decline.
High Risk
GLP-1 Impact
The rise of GLP-1 drugs may reduce hospital revenue from obesity-related conditions like diabetes and cardiovascular disease.
Medium
Operational Risks
HCA Healthcare disclosed 31 risk factors in its recent earnings report, indicating potential operational and financial challenges.
Lower
Market Sentiment
Recent downgrades and bearish analyst views suggest growing skepticism around HCA's near-term performance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why HCA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Margin expansion execution
HCA Healthcare has demonstrated strong margin expansion, contributing to significant stock price appreciation.
AI-driven efficiency gains
The company is leveraging AI to drive productivity and operational efficiency, further boosting margins.
Ambulatory care growth
Growth in ambulatory care services is a key driver of value creation for HCA.
Scale-driven expansion
HCA's large scale enables competitive advantages and capital allocation efficiency in the healthcare market.
Commitment to quality care
HCA's focus on compassionate, high-quality care strengthens its reputation and market position.
Debt reduction
Effective debt management has improved financial stability and investor confidence.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
HCA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$375.17
52W Range Position
20%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$330.00
+13.7% from the low
52-Week High
$556.52
-32.6% from the high
1 Month
-11.26%
3 Month
-25.27%
YTD
-20.2%
1 Year
-0.4%
3Y CAGR
+9.6%
5Y CAGR
+13.3%
10Y CAGR
+16.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
HCA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.4x
vs 11.6x median
+7% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.8%
vs +3.3% median
+106% above peer median
Net Margin
9.0%
vs 6.9% median
+30% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HCA HCA HCA Healthcare, Inc. | $83.9B | 12.4x | +6.8% | 9.0% | Buy | +34.5% |
THC THC Tenet Healthcare Corporation | $15.1B | 9.6x | +3.3% | 7.9% | Buy | +50.4% |
CYH CYH Community Health Systems, Inc. | $426M | — | +2.9% | -0.4% | Hold | -3.0% |
UHS UHS Universal Health Services, Inc. | $8.8B | 6.0x | +7.4% | 8.6% | Hold | +53.0% |
ENS ENSG The Ensign Group, Inc. | $9.0B | 20.3x | +10.1% | 6.9% | Buy | +44.7% |
SEM SEM Select Medical Holdings Corporation | $2.1B | 13.6x | +2.4% | 2.4% | Hold | +7.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
HCA Dividend and Capital Return
HCA returns capital mainly through $10.1B/year in buybacks (12.0% buyback yield), with a modest 0.78% dividend — combining for 12.8% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 7 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
12.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
12.0%
Dividend Yield
0.78%
Payout Ratio
10.0%
How HCA Splits Its Return
Buyback 12.0%
Dividend 0.78%Buybacks 12.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.94
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
7Y
3Y Div CAGR
8.7%
5Y Div CAGR
30.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$10.1B
Estimated Shares Retired
27M
Approx. Share Reduction
12.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
224M
At 12.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.56 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.88 | +9.1% | 9.3% | 10.0% |
| 2024 | $2.64 | +10.0% | 7.7% | 8.6% |
| 2023 | $2.40 | +7.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% |
| 2022 | $2.24 | +16.7% | 9.9% | 10.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsHCA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 46 analysts covering the stock, 30 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $505, implying +34.5% from the current price of $375. The bear case scenario is $304 and the bull case is $637.
02What is the HCA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for HCA is $505 based on 46 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $635 (+69.3% from today), and the low-end target is $413 (+10.1%). The base case model target is $483.
03Is HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) stock overvalued in 2026?
HCA trades at 12.4x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for HCA in 2026 are: (1) Earnings Miss — HCA Healthcare's Q1 2026 earnings miss and reduced full-year forecast contributed to a significant stock decline. (2) GLP-1 Impact — The rise of GLP-1 drugs may reduce hospital revenue from obesity-related conditions like diabetes and cardiovascular disease. (3) Operational Risks — HCA Healthcare disclosed 31 risk factors in its recent earnings report, indicating potential operational and financial challenges. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is HCA Healthcare, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates HCA will report consensus revenue of $80.8B (+6.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $32.25 (+9.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $84.2B in revenue.
06When does HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) report its next earnings?
HCA Healthcare, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-24. Consensus expects EPS of $7.37 and revenue of $19.4B. Over recent quarters, HCA has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does HCA Healthcare, Inc. generate?
HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) generated $7.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 10.2%. HCA returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.8% yield) and share repurchases ($10.1B TTM).