Upside case
Bull case
$269+59.5%
UHS would need investors to value it at roughly 11x earnings — about 4x more generous than today's 7x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Universal Health Services, Inc. (UHS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
43
analysts
18 bullish · 2 bearish · 43 covering UHS
Strong Buy
0
Buy
18
Hold
23
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$232
+37.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$118 – $269
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
43
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
7.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.5B
UHS price targets
Three scenarios for where UHS stock could go
Current
~$168
Confidence
77 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $168
Bear
$118
Base
$221
Bull
$269
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$221+30.9%
At 9x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$118-30.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push UHS down roughly 30% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Universal Health Services, Inc.
UHS · NYSEHealthcareMedical - Care FacilitiesDecember year-end
Universal Health Services is a major hospital operator that owns and runs acute care hospitals alongside behavioral health facilities across the U.S. and internationally. It generates revenue primarily from patient services—split roughly 60% from acute care and 40% from behavioral health—with payments coming from government programs, private insurers, and self-pay patients. The company's scale and geographic diversification across hundreds of facilities create operational efficiencies and a stable revenue base that smaller regional operators cannot match.
Market Cap
$10.5B
Revenue TTM
$17.8B
Net Income TTM
$1.5B
Net Margin
8.6%
UHS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+11.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$5.35/$4.92
Revenue
$4.3B/$4.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$5.69/$4.66
Revenue
$4.5B/$4.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$5.88/$5.92
Revenue
$4.5B/$4.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$5.62/$5.41
Revenue
$4.5B/$4.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $5.35/$4.92 | +8.7% | $4.3B/$4.2B | +1.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.69/$4.66 | +22.1% | $4.5B/$4.5B | -0.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.88/$5.92 | -0.7% | $4.5B/$4.5B | -0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.62/$5.41 | +3.9% | $4.5B/$4.4B | +2.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$19.1B
+7.6% YoY
FY2
$20.7B
+8.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$26.37
— YoY
FY2
$30.25
+14.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$894M
FCF Margin: 5.0%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
UHS beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
UHS Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $17.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Acute Care Hospital Services
57.2%
+11.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Acute Care Hospital Services is the largest disclosed segment at 57.2% of FY 2025 revenue, up 11.2% YoY.
UHS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $405 — implies +142.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
142.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
UHS
7.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
71% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
UHS
7.3x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
67% discount
vs UHS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
7.3x
vs
5Y Average
12.3x
41% discount
Forward PE
7.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
-62%
Healthcare
19.0x
-62%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
7.3x
S&P 500
25.2x
-71%
Healthcare
22.1x
-67%
5Y Avg
12.3x
-41%
PEG Ratio
0.46x
S&P 500
1.75x
-74%
Healthcare
1.52x
-70%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
6.1x
S&P 500
15.3x
-60%
Healthcare
14.1x
-57%
5Y Avg
8.4x
-27%
Price/FCF
12.4x
S&P 500
21.3x
-42%
Healthcare
18.7x
-33%
5Y Avg
21.9x
-43%
Price/Sales
0.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-81%
Healthcare
2.8x
-79%
5Y Avg
0.8x
-23%
Dividend Yield
0.47%
S&P 500
1.88%
-75%
Healthcare
1.40%
-66%
5Y Avg
0.50%
-5%
| Metric | UHS | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg UHS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 7.2x | 19.1x-62% | 19.0x-62% | — |
| Trailing PE | 7.3x | 25.2x-71% | 22.1x-67% | 12.3x-41% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.46x | 1.75x-74% | 1.52x-70% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.1x | 15.3x-60% | 14.1x-57% | 8.4x-27% |
| Price/FCF | 12.4x | 21.3x-42% | 18.7x-33% | 21.9x-43% |
| Price/Sales | 0.6x | 3.1x-81% | 2.8x-79% | 0.8x-23% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.47% | 1.88% | 1.40% | 0.50% |
UHS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolUHS Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
UHS 12.3% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 9.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$17.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+10.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
67.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
11.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
8.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
—
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$894M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
5.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
12.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
9.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$138M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
6.0× FCF
~6.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
20.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
9.7%
Dividend
0.5%
Buyback
9.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$968M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.80
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
3.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
63M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageUHS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Medicaid Cuts
Potential federal Medicaid cuts pose a significant risk to UHS's financial performance, as these cuts could directly impact revenue streams. The company is particularly vulnerable to changes in Medicaid funding, which could lead to substantial financial losses.
High Risk
Behavioral Health Challenges
UHS has adjusted its long-term growth outlook for its behavioral health segment downward due to concerns about recovery and reimbursement pressures. This segment's performance is critical, and any setbacks could adversely affect overall profitability.
High Risk
Regulatory and Legal Issues
UHS faces ongoing regulatory and legal challenges, including a False Claims Act case regarding alleged improper supervision and billing practices. These issues could result in significant financial penalties and operational disruptions.
Medium
Operational Risks
The company's performance is increasingly reliant on effective operational execution to meet growth targets and maintain profitability. Any failure in operational execution could hinder financial results and investor confidence.
Medium
Market Competition
The projected growth in the Outpatient Clinics Market may intensify competition for UHS, potentially leading to declines in patient volumes and pressure on pricing. This competitive landscape could adversely affect revenue growth.
Medium
Financial Volatility
UHS's stock is more volatile than the broader market, with a beta of 1.295, indicating amplified downside risk. Analysts have mixed views on valuation, with some suggesting limited upside potential under current market conditions.
Lower
Geographic Concentration
UHS has a high concentration of operations in the Las Vegas market, which presents a specific risk if economic conditions in that region deteriorate. This concentration could lead to vulnerabilities in revenue generation.
Lower
Seasonal Performance Swings
The company's financial performance may be affected by seasonal patterns, which can lead to fluctuations in revenue and profitability. Investors should be aware of these seasonal trends when evaluating UHS's financial health.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why UHS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Undervaluation and Attractive Valuation Metrics
UHS is significantly undervalued compared to its peers, with a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 6.5x to 10.6x, while industry averages range from 22x to 24.6x. This low valuation, alongside a high Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) fair value estimate of $550.39, indicates substantial upside potential.
Margin Improvement and Profitability
The company has demonstrated a positive trend in profitability, achieving earnings growth of 27.1% over the trailing twelve months and increasing its net profit margin to 8.6%. This margin improvement, along with strategic buildouts, is expected to continue driving profits higher.
Growth in Behavioral Health Services
UHS is expanding its behavioral health capacity, with plans to open 10-15 new outpatient behavioral facilities annually. This expansion, along with technology investments, is anticipated to support long-term revenue and EBITDA growth.
Shareholder Returns
UHS has a significant share buyback program authorized, representing about 12% of its float, which can enhance Earnings Per Share (EPS) growth. Additionally, the company offers a quarterly dividend of $0.20 per share, providing further returns to shareholders.
Analyst Sentiment
A majority of analysts covering UHS have a 'Buy' consensus rating, with price targets indicating modest to significant upside from current levels. Some analyses suggest a fair value significantly above the current stock price, reinforcing the notion of undervaluation.
Resilience and Long-Term Track Record
Despite facing near-term headwinds, UHS has a solid long-term track record, similar to its peer HCA. The company is well-positioned to benefit from the rising demand for behavioral health services and the increasing recognition of mental health infrastructure's importance.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
UHS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$168.49
52W Range Position
17%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$152.33
+10.6% from the low
52-Week High
$246.33
-31.6% from the high
1 Month
-7.08%
3 Month
-22.91%
YTD
-23.4%
1 Year
-8.5%
3Y CAGR
+5.6%
5Y CAGR
+1.8%
10Y CAGR
+2.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
UHS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
7.2x
vs 15.6x median
-54% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.6%
vs +5.6% median
+36% above peer median
Net Margin
8.6%
vs 6.9% median
+24% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UHS UHS Universal Health Services, Inc. | $10.5B | 7.2x | +7.6% | 8.6% | Hold | +37.4% |
HCA HCA HCA Healthcare, Inc. | $96.0B | 14.2x | +5.6% | 9.0% | Buy | +22.8% |
THC THC Tenet Healthcare Corporation | $17.0B | 11.0x | +3.0% | 7.9% | Buy | +37.8% |
CYH CYH Community Health Systems, Inc. | $404M | — | -7.0% | -0.4% | Hold | +2.1% |
ENS ENSG The Ensign Group, Inc. | $10.3B | 23.4x | +17.0% | 6.9% | Buy | +26.4% |
ACH ACHC Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. | $2.3B | 17.0x | +5.6% | -32.8% | Buy | -7.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
UHS Dividend and Capital Return
UHS returns capital mainly through $968M/year in buybacks (9.2% buyback yield), with a modest 0.47% dividend — combining for 9.7% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
9.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
9.2%
Dividend Yield
0.47%
Payout Ratio
3.4%
How UHS Splits Its Return
Buyback 9.2%
Dividend 0.47%Buybacks 9.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.80
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.0%
5Y Div CAGR
32.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$968M
Estimated Shares Retired
6M
Approx. Share Reduction
9.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
63M
At 9.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.20 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.80 | 0.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% |
| 2024 | $0.80 | 0.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% |
| 2023 | $0.80 | 0.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% |
| 2022 | $0.80 | 0.0% | 8.0% | 8.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsUHS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Universal Health Services, Inc. (UHS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Universal Health Services, Inc. (UHS) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 43 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 23 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $232, implying +37.4% from the current price of $168. The bear case scenario is $118 and the bull case is $269.
02What is the UHS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for UHS is $232 based on 43 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $310 (+84.0% from today), and the low-end target is $190 (+12.8%). The base case model target is $221.
03Is Universal Health Services, Inc. (UHS) stock overvalued in 2026?
UHS trades at 7.2x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Universal Health Services, Inc. (UHS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for UHS in 2026 are: (1) Medicaid Cuts — Potential federal Medicaid cuts pose a significant risk to UHS's financial performance, as these cuts could directly impact revenue streams. (2) Behavioral Health Challenges — UHS has adjusted its long-term growth outlook for its behavioral health segment downward due to concerns about recovery and reimbursement pressures. (3) Regulatory and Legal Issues — UHS faces ongoing regulatory and legal challenges, including a False Claims Act case regarding alleged improper supervision and billing practices. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Universal Health Services, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates UHS will report consensus revenue of $19.1B (+7.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $26.37 for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $20.7B in revenue.
06When does Universal Health Services, Inc. (UHS) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for UHS is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Universal Health Services, Inc. generate?
Universal Health Services, Inc. (UHS) generated $894M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 5.0%. UHS returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.5% yield) and share repurchases ($968M TTM).