Upside case
Bull case
$20-76.8%
The bull case prices TIGO at 4x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Millicom International Cellular S.A. (TIGO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
11
analysts
5 bullish · 1 bearish · 11 covering TIGO
Strong Buy
0
Buy
5
Hold
5
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$64
-24.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$4 – $20
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
11
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
16.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $14.2B
TIGO price targets
Three scenarios for where TIGO stock could go
Current
~$85
Confidence
43 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $85
Bear
$4
Base
$344
Bull
$20
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$344+306.1%
At 67x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$4-95.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 16x multiple contraction could push TIGO down roughly 95% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Millicom International Cellular S.A.
TIGO · NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesDecember year-end
Millicom International Cellular is a telecommunications operator providing mobile and cable services across Latin America and Africa. It generates revenue primarily from mobile services — including data, voice, and mobile financial services — and cable/fixed services like broadband and pay-TV, with mobile contributing the majority of its customer base. The company's competitive advantage lies in its established Tigo brand presence across emerging markets and its integrated mobile money ecosystem that creates customer stickiness.
Market Cap
$14.2B
Revenue TTM
$5.6B
Net Income TTM
$1.1B
Net Margin
19.6%
TIGO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-11.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.14/$0.91
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.5B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.51/$0.54
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.34/$0.63
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.50/$1.05
Revenue
$1.7B/$1.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.14/$0.91 | +25.3% | $1.4B/$1.5B | -5.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.51/$0.54 | -5.6% | $1.4B/$1.4B | -2.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.34/$0.63 | -46.2% | $1.4B/$1.4B | +1.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.50/$1.05 | +42.9% | $1.7B/$1.6B | +5.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$6.3B
+11.8% YoY
FY2
$6.6B
+5.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$6.01
-7.7% YoY
FY2
$5.97
-0.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.7B
FCF Margin: 30.4%
Next Earnings
May 12, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.89
Expected Revenue
$2.0B
TIGO beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
TIGO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $5.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Service1
100.0%
+3.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
GUATEMALA
29.0%
+2.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Service1 is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2024 revenue, up 3.2% YoY.
GUATEMALA is the largest reported region at 29.0%, up 2.5% YoY.
TIGO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $73 — implies -13.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
13.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TIGO
57.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+128% premium
vs Communication Services Trailing P/E
TIGO
57.6x
vs
Communication Services
15.5x
+271% premium
vs TIGO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
57.6x
vs
5Y Average
18.6x
+209% premium
Forward PE
16.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
-13%
Communication Services
13.1x
+27%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
57.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
+128%
Communication Services
15.5x
+271%
5Y Avg
18.6x
+209%
PEG Ratio
2.83x
S&P 500
1.75x
+62%
Communication Services
0.66x
+329%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
7.8x
S&P 500
15.3x
-49%
Communication Services
8.7x
-10%
5Y Avg
5.7x
+38%
Price/FCF
12.5x
S&P 500
21.3x
-41%
Communication Services
11.6x
+8%
5Y Avg
29.8x
-58%
Price/Sales
2.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
-22%
Communication Services
1.0x
+133%
5Y Avg
0.8x
+213%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Communication Services
3.38%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | TIGO | S&P 500 | Communication Services | 5Y Avg TIGO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 16.6x | 19.1x-13% | 13.1x+27% | — |
| Trailing PE | 57.6x | 25.2x+128% | 15.5x+271% | 18.6x+209% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.83x | 1.75x+62% | 0.66x+329% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.8x | 15.3x-49% | 8.7x | 5.7x+38% |
| Price/FCF | 12.5x | 21.3x-41% | 11.6x | 29.8x-58% |
| Price/Sales | 2.4x | 3.1x-22% | 1.0x+133% | 0.8x+213% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 3.38% | — |
TIGO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTIGO Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
TIGO earns 26.1% operating margin on regulated earnings. Utilities carry higher leverage than industrials as a structural feature of the business model.
Regulated Operations
Revenue, regulated margins, and earnings
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$5.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-4.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
26.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
19.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.52
Operating Margin
Operating income over revenue — primary regulated earnings signal
26.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
10.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$699M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$6.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.6× FCF
Regulated utilities typically operate at 3–5× net debt/FCF — this is structural, not a risk flag.
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
33.1%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (10.0%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.7%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$99M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
173M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. Utilities operate with structural leverage (3–5× net debt/FCF) due to regulated, predictable cash flows.
Open full ratios pageTIGO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Financial Leverage and Debt
TIGO carries a substantial debt load, with total debt reaching approximately $7.95 billion and net debt at $6.67 billion as of June 2025. The company's Debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 3.02 is considered high for the telecom industry, limiting financial flexibility and increasing vulnerability to earnings downturns, with an estimated bankruptcy probability of 8.9%.
High Risk
Revenue Decline
TIGO is experiencing a significant decline in revenues, with a drop of 5.9% and 7.6% year-over-year in recent quarters. This trend, exacerbated by increased competition, contributes to a negative outlook on the company's future financial performance.
High Risk
Liquidity Concerns
TIGO's liquidity metrics raise concerns, with a current ratio of 0.89 and a quick ratio of 0.61, indicating that short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets. This situation could lead to a potential liquidity squeeze, impacting the company's operational capabilities.
Medium
Stock Price Volatility
The market price of TIGO's common shares can fluctuate significantly due to various factors such as market conditions, company performance, and regulatory developments. This volatility may hinder investors from selling shares at their desired price.
Medium
Regulatory and Market Uncertainties
TIGO faces structural and regulatory uncertainties in Latin America that may erode profit margins over time. New market entrants with advanced networks could intensify competition and pressure average revenue per user (ARPU).
Lower
Operational and Business Risks
TIGO faces risks related to the potential use of payment services in fraudulent activities and the inability to fully mitigate inappropriate conduct by employees or business partners. Additionally, divestitures or restructuring of assets carry significant risks.
Lower
Currency Volatility
Operating in Latin America exposes TIGO to regional macro profitability and currency volatility risks, which can impact financial performance.
Lower
Limited Analyst Coverage
TIGO has received limited analyst coverage recently, with only 4 research reports in the past 90 days, which may affect investor awareness and market perception.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TIGO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strategic Acquisitions and Consolidation
TIGO has been actively consolidating its market position through acquisitions, such as the full acquisition of Coltel in Colombia and operations in Ecuador and Uruguay. This strategy aims to create larger, more financially robust entities with greater investment capacity for accelerating 5G deployment and improving service quality.
Operational Efficiencies and Digital Growth
Analysts believe that efficiency gains, higher postpaid penetration, and digital automation will lead to stronger margins than currently forecasted. The company's focus on converged services and potential operational improvements in newly acquired territories are seen as favorable for future financial performance.
Record Financial Performance
TIGO reported record financial results in 2025, with $5.8 billion in revenue, $1.3 billion in net profit, and $916 million in Equity Free Cash Flow (EFCF). The company is guiding for at least $900 million in EFCF for 2026, indicating strong cash generation capabilities.
Tower Sale-Leaseback for Cash Flow
The completion of a tower sale-leaseback deal for approximately $975 million provides immediate cash flow and allows TIGO to focus on its core business. This move is expected to boost shareholder value through share buybacks and reduce operational and capital expenditures associated with tower management.
Digital Lifestyle Focus
TIGO aims to build 'digital highways' that connect people and improve lives, offering a range of services including mobile financial services (Tigo Money), entertainment (Tigo Sports, ONEtv), cloud solutions, and broadband. The increasing adoption of smartphones and mobile data use supports this strategy.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TIGO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$84.74
52W Range Position
99%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$30.26
+180.0% from the low
52-Week High
$85.24
-0.6% from the high
1 Month
+5.10%
3 Month
+26.57%
YTD
+49.8%
1 Year
+149.5%
3Y CAGR
+67.7%
5Y CAGR
+14.9%
10Y CAGR
+4.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TIGO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
16.6x
vs 0.5x median
+3082% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+11.8%
vs +6.7% median
+77% above peer median
Net Margin
19.6%
vs 7.4% median
+166% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TIG TIGO Millicom International Cellular S.A. | $14.2B | 16.6x | +11.8% | 19.6% | Buy | -24.2% |
AMX AMX América Móvil, S.A.B. de C.V. | $81.5B | 0.8x | +2.4% | 8.8% | Buy | -1.3% |
TKC TKC Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. | $5.7B | 0.2x | +14.2% | 7.4% | Buy | — |
LIL LILA Liberty Latin America Ltd. | $1.6B | — | -0.6% | -13.8% | Buy | -1.8% |
TEO TEO Telecom Argentina S.A. | $5.3B | 0.0x | +12.4% | -3.3% | Sell | +4.1% |
VIV VIV Telefônica Brasil S.A. | $25.5B | 2.9x | +6.7% | 10.4% | Hold | +3.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TIGO Dividend and Capital Return
TIGO returns 0.7% annually — null% through dividends and 0.7% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.7%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$8.50
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
8 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$99M
Estimated Shares Retired
1M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
173M
At 0.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $1.50 | -64.7% | — | — |
| 2026 | $4.25 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $4.50 | — | — | — |
| 2019 | $2.64 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.3% |
| 2018 | $2.64 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsTIGO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Millicom International Cellular S.A. (TIGO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Millicom International Cellular S.A. (TIGO) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 11 analysts covering the stock, 5 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $64, implying -24.2% from the current price of $85. The bear case scenario is $4 and the bull case is $20.
02What is the TIGO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TIGO is $64 based on 11 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $89 (+5.0% from today), and the low-end target is $43 (-49.3%). The base case model target is $344.
03Is Millicom International Cellular S.A. (TIGO) stock overvalued in 2026?
TIGO trades at 16.6x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Millicom International Cellular S.A. (TIGO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TIGO in 2026 are: (1) Financial Leverage and Debt — TIGO carries a substantial debt load, with total debt reaching approximately $7. (2) Revenue Decline — TIGO is experiencing a significant decline in revenues, with a drop of 5. (3) Liquidity Concerns — TIGO's liquidity metrics raise concerns, with a current ratio of 0. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Millicom International Cellular S.A.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TIGO will report consensus revenue of $6.3B (+11.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $6.01 (-7.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $6.6B in revenue.
06When does Millicom International Cellular S.A. (TIGO) report its next earnings?
Millicom International Cellular S.A. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-12. Consensus expects EPS of $0.89 and revenue of $2.0B. Over recent quarters, TIGO has beaten EPS estimates 25% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Millicom International Cellular S.A. generate?
Millicom International Cellular S.A. (TIGO) generated $1.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 30.4%. TIGO returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($99M TTM).