Upside case
Bull case
$316+26.5%
TRGP would need investors to value it at roughly 31x earnings — about 7x more generous than today's 25x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
33
analysts
28 bullish · 0 bearish · 33 covering TRGP
Strong Buy
1
Buy
27
Hold
5
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$238
-4.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$28 – $316
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
33
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
24.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $53.6B
TRGP price targets
Three scenarios for where TRGP stock could go
Current
~$250
Confidence
50 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $250
Bear
$28
Base
$287
Bull
$316
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$287+15.2%
At 28x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$28-88.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 22x multiple contraction could push TRGP down roughly 89% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Targa Resources Corp.
TRGP · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamDecember year-end
Targa Resources is a midstream energy company that gathers, processes, transports, and stores natural gas and natural gas liquids across North America. It generates revenue primarily from fee-based contracts in its Gathering & Processing segment (~60% of gross margin) and Logistics & Transportation segment (~40%), with additional income from commodity sales. The company's competitive advantage lies in its strategically located infrastructure network in key shale basins—particularly the Permian—which creates high barriers to entry through significant capital requirements and long-term customer contracts.
Market Cap
$53.6B
Revenue TTM
$17.5B
Net Income TTM
$1.7B
Net Margin
9.4%
TRGP Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
17%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-9.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.91/$1.98
Revenue
$4.6B/$4.9B
Q3 2025
EPS
$2.87/$1.86
Revenue
$4.0B/$4.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.20/$2.11
Revenue
$4.2B/$4.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.51/$2.30
Revenue
$4.1B/$4.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.91/$1.98 | -54.0% | $4.6B/$4.9B | -6.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.87/$1.86 | +54.3% | $4.0B/$4.9B | -17.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.20/$2.11 | +4.3% | $4.2B/$4.6B | -7.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.51/$2.30 | +9.1% | $4.1B/$4.7B | -14.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$18.7B
+6.7% YoY
FY2
$19.3B
+3.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$8.94
+17.0% YoY
FY2
$9.82
+9.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$643M
FCF Margin: 3.7%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.56
Expected Revenue
$4.7B
TRGP beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
TRGP Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $21.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Logistics And Transportation
66.4%
+3.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Logistics And Transportation
66.3%
+3.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Logistics And Transportation is the largest disclosed segment at 66.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 3.8% YoY.
Logistics And Transportation is the largest reported region at 66.3%, up 3.8% YoY.
TRGP Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $203 — implies -20.3% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
20.3%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TRGP
29.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+16% premium
vs Energy Trailing P/E
TRGP
29.3x
vs
Energy
16.9x
+74% premium
vs TRGP 5Y Avg P/E
Today
29.3x
vs
5Y Average
23.8x
+23% premium
Forward PE
24.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
+29%
Energy
13.2x
+86%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
29.3x
S&P 500
25.2x
+16%
Energy
16.9x
+74%
5Y Avg
23.8x
+23%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.3x
S&P 500
15.3x
-6%
Energy
8.1x
+75%
5Y Avg
9.5x
+50%
Price/FCF
13.7x
S&P 500
21.3x
-36%
Energy
14.1x
-3%
5Y Avg
22.9x
-40%
Price/Sales
3.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-0%
Energy
1.6x
+100%
5Y Avg
1.5x
+111%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Energy
2.97%
—
5Y Avg
1.89%
—
| Metric | TRGP | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg TRGP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 24.6x | 19.1x+29% | 13.2x+86% | — |
| Trailing PE | 29.3x | 25.2x+16% | 16.9x+74% | 23.8x+23% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.3x | 15.3x | 8.1x+75% | 9.5x+50% |
| Price/FCF | 13.7x | 21.3x-36% | 14.1x | 22.9x-40% |
| Price/Sales | 3.1x | 3.1x | 1.6x+100% | 1.5x+111% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 2.97% | 1.89% |
TRGP trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTRGP Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
TRGP 13.3% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$17.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+7.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
22.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
18.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
9.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$7.64
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$643M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
3.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
13.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$166M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$17.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
26.9× FCF
~26.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
58.2%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (13.3%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
215M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageTRGP Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Debt & Financial Leverage
Targa Resources recently issued a $2 billion debt offering, raising its debt‑to‑equity ratio. The added leverage increases interest obligations and pressures the company’s interest coverage ratio, heightening financial risk if cash flows falter.
High Risk
Execution Risk on Large Projects
The firm is simultaneously developing multiple large‑scale assets—plants, pipelines, and export facilities. Delays, cost overruns, or operational setbacks could erode projected returns, damage investor confidence, and strain capital resources.
Medium
Market Volatility & Valuation
TRGP trades at a premium relative to industry peers and its own historical multiples. This valuation premium may constrain near‑term upside and make the stock more sensitive to market swings.
Medium
Commodity Price Volatility
Although >90% of cash flows are fee‑based, a sharp drop in commodity prices can reduce upstream drilling activity, lower throughput volumes, and delay returns on new infrastructure investments.
Medium
Dependence on Upstream Activity
The company’s growth hinges on upstream drilling. A temporary slowdown in drilling activity can cut throughput volumes, diminishing fee income and delaying payback on capital projects.
Lower
Regulatory & Environmental Factors
Changes in regulations or environmental requirements could impose additional compliance costs or restrict project approvals, impacting operational flexibility and profitability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TRGP Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Dominant Permian Basin Footprint
Targa Resources has a significant presence in the Permian Basin, a highly productive oil and gas region. This strategic location allows the company to capitalize on rising production levels in the area, providing a stable supply base for its operations.
Volume-Driven Business Model
The company’s revenue stream is driven by volumes, with fee‑based contracts and minimum volume commitments that enhance cash flow stability and downside protection. This model delivers a predictable and resilient earnings profile.
Growth Through Expansion
Targa is investing $2.5 billion in 2026 to build new Permian plants and NGL infrastructure, including new gas processing plants and the Speedway NGL Pipeline. These projects are expected to significantly boost growth in 2027‑2028.
Strong Financial Performance
Targa reported record 2025 adjusted EBITDA of approximately $5.00 billion, a 20% year‑over‑year increase. Management projects 2026 adjusted EBITDA between $5.4 billion and $5.6 billion, supported by robust free cash flow generation.
Shareholder Returns
The company increased its annual dividend by 25% to $5.00 per share and completed $642 million in share repurchases, underscoring its commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TRGP Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$249.50
52W Range Position
89%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$144.14
+73.1% from the low
52-Week High
$261.95
-4.8% from the high
1 Month
+1.57%
3 Month
+18.00%
YTD
+33.6%
1 Year
+58.6%
3Y CAGR
+51.9%
5Y CAGR
+46.4%
10Y CAGR
+20.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TRGP vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
24.6x
vs 12.9x median
+90% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.7%
vs +6.5% median
+3% above peer median
Net Margin
9.4%
vs 25.7% median
-63% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TRG TRGP Targa Resources Corp. | $53.6B | 24.6x | +6.7% | 9.4% | Buy | -4.7% |
WES WES Western Midstream Partners, LP | $16.8B | 12.9x | +6.5% | 29.9% | Hold | -0.6% |
CTR CTRA Coterra Energy Inc. | $24.7B | 11.5x | -15.3% | 25.7% | Buy | +4.5% |
DT DT Dynatrace, Inc. | $11.4B | 22.7x | +9.9% | 9.6% | Buy | +30.4% |
HES HESM Hess Midstream LP | $8.0B | 13.2x | +7.1% | 21.8% | Hold | -16.3% |
MPL MPLX MPLX Lp | $56.5B | 12.6x | +6.2% | 37.5% | Buy | +8.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TRGP Dividend and Capital Return
TRGP does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.25
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
38.9%
5Y Div CAGR
25.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
215M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.25 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.75 | +36.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024 | $2.75 | +48.6% | 1.9% | 3.5% |
| 2023 | $1.85 | +32.1% | 1.9% | 4.1% |
| 2022 | $1.40 | +250.0% | 7.0% | 9.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsTRGP Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 33 analysts covering the stock, 28 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $238, implying -4.7% from the current price of $250. The bear case scenario is $28 and the bull case is $316.
02What is the TRGP stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TRGP is $238 based on 33 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $268 (+7.4% from today), and the low-end target is $207 (-17.0%). The base case model target is $287.
03Is Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP) stock overvalued in 2026?
TRGP trades at 24.6x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TRGP in 2026 are: (1) Debt & Financial Leverage — Targa Resources recently issued a $2 billion debt offering, raising its debt‑to‑equity ratio. (2) Execution Risk on Large Projects — The firm is simultaneously developing multiple large‑scale assets—plants, pipelines, and export facilities. (3) Market Volatility & Valuation — TRGP trades at a premium relative to industry peers and its own historical multiples. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Targa Resources Corp.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TRGP will report consensus revenue of $18.7B (+6.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $8.94 (+17.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $19.3B in revenue.
06When does Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP) report its next earnings?
Targa Resources Corp. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $2.56 and revenue of $4.7B. Over recent quarters, TRGP has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Targa Resources Corp. generate?
Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP) generated $643M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 3.7%. TRGP returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).