Upside case
Bull case
$203-21.5%
The bull case prices TRGP at 19x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
34
analysts
27 bullish · 0 bearish · 34 covering TRGP
Strong Buy
1
Buy
26
Hold
7
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$276
+6.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$97 – $203
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
34
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
23.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $55.5B
TRGP price targets
Three scenarios for where TRGP stock could go
Current
~$259
Confidence
43 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $259
Bear
$97
Base
$154
Bull
$203
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$154-40.5%
At 14x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$97-62.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 15x multiple contraction could push TRGP down roughly 62% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Targa Resources Corp.
TRGP · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamDecember year-end
Targa Resources is a midstream energy company that gathers, processes, transports, and stores natural gas and natural gas liquids across North America. It generates revenue primarily from fee-based contracts in its Gathering & Processing segment (~60% of gross margin) and Logistics & Transportation segment (~40%), with additional income from commodity sales. The company's competitive advantage lies in its strategically located infrastructure network in key shale basins—particularly the Permian—which creates high barriers to entry through significant capital requirements and long-term customer contracts.
Market Cap
$55.5B
Revenue TTM
$16.4B
Net Income TTM
$2.1B
Net Margin
13.0%
TRGP Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
17%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-2.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.87/$1.86
Revenue
$4.0B/$4.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.20/$2.11
Revenue
$4.2B/$4.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.51/$2.30
Revenue
$4.1B/$4.7B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.21/$2.48
Revenue
$4.1B/$4.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.87/$1.86 | +54.3% | $4.0B/$4.9B | -17.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.20/$2.11 | +4.3% | $4.2B/$4.6B | -7.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.51/$2.30 | +9.1% | $4.1B/$4.7B | -14.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.21/$2.48 | -10.9% | $4.1B/$4.7B | -12.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$17.3B
+5.8% YoY
FY2
$18.9B
+9.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$8.73
-11.7% YoY
FY2
$8.55
-2.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$262M
FCF Margin: 1.6%
Next Earnings
August 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.74
Expected Revenue
$4.8B
TRGP beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
TRGP Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $21.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Logistics And Transportation
66.4%
+3.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Logistics And Transportation
66.3%
+3.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Logistics And Transportation is the largest disclosed segment at 66.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 3.8% YoY.
Logistics And Transportation is the largest reported region at 66.3%, up 3.8% YoY.
TRGP Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $136 — implies -47.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
47.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TRGP
30.3x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+24% premium
vs Energy Trailing P/E
TRGP
30.3x
vs
Energy
15.5x
+96% premium
vs TRGP 5Y Avg P/E
Today
30.3x
vs
5Y Average
23.8x
+27% premium
Forward PE
23.9x
S&P 500
18.8x
+27%
Energy
12.5x
+92%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
30.3x
S&P 500
24.4x
+24%
Energy
15.5x
+96%
5Y Avg
23.8x
+27%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
-3%
Energy
7.8x
+87%
5Y Avg
9.5x
+54%
Price/FCF
95.0x
S&P 500
20.7x
+359%
Energy
13.8x
+589%
5Y Avg
34.5x
+176%
Price/Sales
3.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+5%
Energy
1.4x
+129%
5Y Avg
1.5x
+118%
Dividend Yield
1.47%
S&P 500
1.91%
-23%
Energy
3.47%
-58%
5Y Avg
1.92%
-23%
| Metric | TRGP | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg TRGP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 23.9x | 18.8x+27% | 12.5x+92% | — |
| Trailing PE | 30.3x | 24.4x+24% | 15.5x+96% | 23.8x+27% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.7x | 15.2x | 7.8x+87% | 9.5x+54% |
| Price/FCF | 95.0x | 20.7x+359% | 13.8x+589% | 34.5x+176% |
| Price/Sales | 3.2x | 3.1x | 1.4x+129% | 1.5x+118% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.47% | 1.91% | 3.47% | 1.92% |
TRGP trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTRGP Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
TRGP 13.2% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 2.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$16.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-2.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
29.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
21.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
13.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.88
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$262M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
1.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
13.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$166M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$17.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
66.4× FCF
~66.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
70.8%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (13.2%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.6%
Dividend
1.5%
Buyback
1.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$642M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.81
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
44.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
215M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageTRGP Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Medium
Valuation de-rating
Consensus target price implies only -5.8% upside, with fair value estimates ranging widely from $128.57 to $461.66, indicating potential overvaluation risks.
High Risk
Commodity price volatility
As a midstream energy player, TRGP's performance is tied to oil and gas prices, which are inherently volatile and could impact profitability.
Medium
Operational efficiency risks
Despite industry-leading operational standards, any disruptions in pipeline or processing plant efficiency could negatively affect financial results.
Lower
Concentration risk
Top holder Vanguard Group Inc. represents a significant portion of ownership, which could lead to liquidity concerns if large positions are unwound.
Medium
Regulatory environment
Changes in energy sector regulations or environmental policies could impose additional costs or restrictions on TRGP's operations.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TRGP Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Strong financial performance
Targa Resources Corp. reported a sharp increase in net income to US$479.6 million and diluted EPS from continuing operations of US$2.21, indicating robust profitability.
Share buyback program
The company continues its August 2024 buyback program, repurchasing 227,801 shares for US$54.97 million, signaling confidence in its financial health.
Higher adjusted EBITDA guidance
Targa Resources has raised its adjusted EBITDA guidance, reflecting optimism about future earnings potential.
Permian projects investment
Investors are weighing commentary on Targa's higher near-term capital spending for major Permian projects, including the Speedway development, which could drive future growth.
Bullish analyst coverage
A bullish thesis on Targa Resources Corp. has been highlighted by Cristobal Botanch on Beyond the Noise's Substack, suggesting positive sentiment among analysts.
Strong governance
The company recently held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where directors were elected and executive compensation was approved, indicating stable governance.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TRGP Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$258.58
52W Range Position
84%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$144.14
+79.4% from the low
52-Week High
$280.00
-7.7% from the high
1 Month
-5.87%
3 Month
+10.51%
YTD
+38.4%
1 Year
+52.7%
3Y CAGR
+53.9%
5Y CAGR
+42.4%
10Y CAGR
+19.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TRGP vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
23.9x
vs 12.5x median
+91% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.8%
vs +8.8% median
-34% below peer median
Net Margin
13.0%
vs 25.7% median
-50% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TRG TRGP Targa Resources Corp. | $55.5B | 23.9x | +5.8% | 13.0% | Buy | +6.7% |
WES WES Western Midstream Partners, LP | $16.9B | 12.4x | +7.9% | 29.9% | Hold | +7.7% |
CTR CTRA Coterra Energy Inc. | $24.7B | 11.3x | +4.2% | 25.7% | Buy | +5.0% |
DT DT Dynatrace, Inc. | $12.1B | 21.3x | +16.5% | 8.1% | Buy | +12.0% |
HES HESM Hess Midstream LP | $7.7B | 12.5x | +8.8% | 21.8% | Hold | -4.9% |
MPL MPLX MPLX Lp | $57.7B | 13.2x | +8.8% | 37.5% | Buy | +6.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TRGP Dividend and Capital Return
TRGP returns 2.6% total yield, led by a 1.47% dividend. Buybacks add another 1.2%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
2.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.2%
Dividend Yield
1.47%
Payout Ratio
44.4%
How TRGP Splits Its Return
Div 1.47%
Buyback 1.2%
Dividend 1.47%Buybacks 1.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.81
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
38.9%
5Y Div CAGR
25.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$642M
Estimated Shares Retired
2M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
215M
At 1.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.25 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.75 | +36.4% | 1.6% | 3.7% |
| 2024 | $2.75 | +48.6% | 1.9% | 3.5% |
| 2023 | $1.85 | +32.1% | 1.9% | 4.1% |
| 2022 | $1.40 | +250.0% | 7.0% | 9.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsTRGP Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 34 analysts covering the stock, 27 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 7 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $276, implying +6.7% from the current price of $259. The bear case scenario is $97 and the bull case is $203.
02What is the TRGP stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TRGP is $276 based on 34 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $331 (+28.0% from today), and the low-end target is $231 (-10.7%). The base case model target is $154.
03Is Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP) stock overvalued in 2026?
TRGP trades at 23.9x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TRGP in 2026 are: (1) Commodity price volatility — As a midstream energy player, TRGP's performance is tied to oil and gas prices, which are inherently volatile and could impact profitability. (2) Valuation de-rating — Consensus target price implies only -5. (3) Operational efficiency risks — Despite industry-leading operational standards, any disruptions in pipeline or processing plant efficiency could negatively affect financial results. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Targa Resources Corp.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TRGP will report consensus revenue of $17.3B (+5.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $8.73 (-11.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $18.9B in revenue.
06When does Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP) report its next earnings?
Targa Resources Corp. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-06. Consensus expects EPS of $2.74 and revenue of $4.8B. Over recent quarters, TRGP has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Targa Resources Corp. generate?
Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP) generated $262M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 1.6%. TRGP returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.5% yield) and share repurchases ($642M TTM).