Upside case
Bull case
$82+44.1%
MPLX would need investors to value it at roughly 19x earnings — about 6x more generous than today's 13x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
MPLX Lp (MPLX) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
28
analysts
20 bullish · 0 bearish · 28 covering MPLX
Strong Buy
0
Buy
20
Hold
8
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$60
+6.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$39 – $82
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
28
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
13.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $57.7B
MPLX price targets
Three scenarios for where MPLX stock could go
Current
~$57
Confidence
44 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $57
Bear
$39
Base
$62
Bull
$82
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$62+9.4%
This is close to how the market is already pricing MPLX — at roughly 14x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$39-31.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push MPLX down roughly 31% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
MPLX Lp
MPLX · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamDecember year-end
MPLX LP is a master limited partnership that owns and operates midstream energy infrastructure—primarily pipelines, storage facilities, and processing plants—across the United States. It generates fee-based revenue through two main segments: Logistics & Storage (roughly 60% of EBITDA) from pipeline transportation and terminal services, and Gathering & Processing (roughly 40%) from gathering, processing, and fractionation services. Its competitive advantage stems from strategically located, large-scale assets in key shale basins—particularly the Marcellus/Utica region—that create high barriers to entry through significant capital requirements and long-term contracts.
Market Cap
$57.7B
Revenue TTM
$12.5B
Net Income TTM
$4.7B
Net Margin
37.5%
MPLX Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.03/$1.06
Revenue
$2.8B/$3.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.52/$1.07
Revenue
$3.6B/$3.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.17/$1.06
Revenue
$3.3B/$3.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.90/$1.05
Revenue
$2.8B/$3.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.03/$1.06 | -2.8% | $2.8B/$3.1B | -11.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.52/$1.07 | +42.1% | $3.6B/$3.2B | +14.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.17/$1.06 | +10.4% | $3.3B/$3.2B | +2.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.90/$1.05 | -14.3% | $2.8B/$3.1B | -9.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$13.6B
+8.8% YoY
FY2
$14.5B
+6.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.93
+6.5% YoY
FY2
$5.27
+6.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$5.0B
FCF Margin: 39.8%
Next Earnings
August 4, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.08
Expected Revenue
$3.2B
MPLX beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
MPLX Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $6.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Service
65.7%
+5.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Service is the largest disclosed segment at 65.7% of FY 2025 revenue, up 5.1% YoY.
MPLX Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $63 — implies +11.7% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
11.7%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MPLX
11.8x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
52% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
MPLX
11.8x
vs
Energy
15.5x
24% discount
vs MPLX 5Y Avg P/E
Today
11.8x
vs
5Y Average
10.2x
+15% premium
Forward PE
13.2x
S&P 500
18.8x
-30%
Energy
12.5x
+5%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
11.8x
S&P 500
24.4x
-52%
Energy
15.5x
-24%
5Y Avg
10.2x
+15%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
13.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
-12%
Energy
7.8x
+71%
5Y Avg
10.1x
+32%
Price/FCF
14.1x
S&P 500
20.7x
-32%
Energy
13.8x
+2%
5Y Avg
9.3x
+52%
Price/Sales
4.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+58%
Energy
1.4x
+245%
5Y Avg
3.8x
+29%
Dividend Yield
6.94%
S&P 500
1.91%
+263%
Energy
3.47%
+100%
5Y Avg
8.69%
-20%
| Metric | MPLX | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg MPLX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 13.2x | 18.8x-30% | 12.5x | — |
| Trailing PE | 11.8x | 24.4x-52% | 15.5x-24% | 10.2x+15% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.4x | 15.2x-12% | 7.8x+71% | 10.1x+32% |
| Price/FCF | 14.1x | 20.7x-32% | 13.8x | 9.3x+52% |
| Price/Sales | 4.9x | 3.1x+58% | 1.4x+245% | 3.8x+29% |
| Dividend Yield | 6.94% | 1.91% | 3.47% | 8.69% |
MPLX trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMPLX Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
MPLX generates $5.0B in free cash flow at a 39.8% margin — returns 7.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$12.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+12.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
60.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
44.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
37.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.63
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$5.0B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
39.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.1B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$24.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.8× FCF
~4.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
32.8%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (9.9%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
7.6%
Dividend
6.9%
Buyback
0.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$400M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.94
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
81.8%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.0B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageMPLX Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Earnings Volatility
MPLX LP's upcoming earnings reports and financial results could introduce volatility, as seen with recent announcements and distribution updates.
Medium
Analyst Target Risk
The consensus price target of $60.25 implies limited upside, suggesting potential overvaluation or stagnation risks.
High Risk
Disclosed Risk Factors
MPLX disclosed 68 risk factors in its recent earnings report, indicating significant operational and financial challenges.
Medium
Market Sentiment
Bull/base/bear scenario ranges and tech exposure analysis suggest mixed sentiment, with potential downside risks.
Lower
Distribution Stability
Quarterly distributions announced may provide some stability, but reliance on these payouts could mask underlying risks.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MPLX Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Strong Analyst Consensus
Wall Street consensus price target of $60.25 suggests an 8.2% upside from the current trading price of $55.67.
Upcoming Earnings Report
MPLX LP is set to report second-quarter results on August 4, 2026, which could drive investor sentiment.
Quarterly Distribution Announcement
MPLX LP announced a quarterly distribution, indicating consistent returns for investors.
Financial Health Review
Deep dive into MPLX's fundamental analysis and financial health highlights its stability and growth potential.
MarketBeat Forecast
Top analysts forecast a price target of $61.60, signaling strong confidence in MPLX's future performance.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MPLX Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$56.84
52W Range Position
74%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$47.80
+18.9% from the low
52-Week High
$59.98
-5.2% from the high
1 Month
+2.53%
3 Month
-0.92%
YTD
+5.5%
1 Year
+10.6%
3Y CAGR
+19.1%
5Y CAGR
+13.9%
10Y CAGR
+5.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MPLX vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
13.2x
vs 12.8x median
+3% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.8%
vs +5.8% median
+52% above peer median
Net Margin
37.5%
vs 11.0% median
+240% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MPL MPLX MPLX Lp | $57.7B | 13.2x | +8.8% | 37.5% | Buy | +6.0% |
EPD EPD Enterprise Products Partners L.P. | $79.1B | 12.6x | +5.0% | 11.0% | Buy | +7.2% |
ET ET Energy Transfer LP | $64.5B | 12.8x | +11.1% | 6.2% | Buy | +22.7% |
PAA PAA Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. | $15.1B | 13.5x | +4.4% | 2.5% | Buy | +13.8% |
WES WES Western Midstream Partners, LP | $16.9B | 12.4x | +7.9% | 29.9% | Hold | +7.7% |
TRG TRGP Targa Resources Corp. | $55.5B | 23.9x | +5.8% | 13.0% | Buy | +6.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MPLX Dividend and Capital Return
MPLX returns 7.6% total yield, led by a 6.94% dividend. Buybacks add another 0.7%.
Dividend WatchFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
7.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.7%
Dividend Yield
6.94%
Payout Ratio
81.8%
How MPLX Splits Its Return
Div 6.94%
Dividend 6.94%Buybacks 0.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.94
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
10.9%
5Y Div CAGR
7.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$400M
Estimated Shares Retired
7M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.0B
At 0.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.15 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.95 | +12.5% | 0.7% | 8.1% |
| 2024 | $3.51 | +10.4% | 0.7% | 8.0% |
| 2023 | $3.18 | +9.9% | 1.6% | 10.3% |
| 2022 | $2.89 | -13.5% | 1.5% | 10.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsMPLX Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is MPLX Lp (MPLX) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
MPLX Lp (MPLX) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 28 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $60, implying +6.0% from the current price of $57. The bear case scenario is $39 and the bull case is $82.
02What is the MPLX stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MPLX is $60 based on 28 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $63 (+10.8% from today), and the low-end target is $58 (+2.0%). The base case model target is $62.
03Is MPLX Lp (MPLX) stock overvalued in 2026?
MPLX trades at 13.2x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for MPLX Lp (MPLX) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MPLX in 2026 are: (1) Earnings Volatility — MPLX LP's upcoming earnings reports and financial results could introduce volatility, as seen with recent announcements and distribution updates. (2) Disclosed Risk Factors — MPLX disclosed 68 risk factors in its recent earnings report, indicating significant operational and financial challenges. (3) Analyst Target Risk — The consensus price target of $60. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is MPLX Lp's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MPLX will report consensus revenue of $13.6B (+8.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.93 (+6.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $14.5B in revenue.
06When does MPLX Lp (MPLX) report its next earnings?
MPLX Lp is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-04. Consensus expects EPS of $1.08 and revenue of $3.2B. Over recent quarters, MPLX has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does MPLX Lp generate?
MPLX Lp (MPLX) generated $5.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 39.8%. MPLX returns capital to shareholders through dividends (6.9% yield) and share repurchases ($400M TTM).