Upside case
Bull case
$96+71.7%
MPLX would need investors to value it at roughly 22x earnings — about 9x more generous than today's 13x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
MPLX Lp (MPLX) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
28
analysts
20 bullish · 0 bearish · 28 covering MPLX
Strong Buy
0
Buy
20
Hold
8
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$60
+8.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$8 – $96
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
28
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $56.5B
MPLX price targets
Three scenarios for where MPLX stock could go
Current
~$56
Confidence
41 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $56
Bear
$8
Base
$61
Bull
$96
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$61+10.5%
This is close to how the market is already pricing MPLX — at roughly 14x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$8-86.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 11x multiple contraction could push MPLX down roughly 86% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
MPLX Lp
MPLX · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamDecember year-end
MPLX LP is a master limited partnership that owns and operates midstream energy infrastructure—primarily pipelines, storage facilities, and processing plants—across the United States. It generates fee-based revenue through two main segments: Logistics & Storage (roughly 60% of EBITDA) from pipeline transportation and terminal services, and Gathering & Processing (roughly 40%) from gathering, processing, and fractionation services. Its competitive advantage stems from strategically located, large-scale assets in key shale basins—particularly the Marcellus/Utica region—that create high barriers to entry through significant capital requirements and long-term contracts.
Market Cap
$56.5B
Revenue TTM
$12.5B
Net Income TTM
$4.7B
Net Margin
37.5%
MPLX Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.03/$1.06
Revenue
$2.8B/$3.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.52/$1.07
Revenue
$3.6B/$3.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.17/$1.06
Revenue
$3.3B/$3.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.90/$1.05
Revenue
$2.8B/$3.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.03/$1.06 | -2.8% | $2.8B/$3.1B | -11.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.52/$1.07 | +42.1% | $3.6B/$3.2B | +14.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.17/$1.06 | +10.4% | $3.3B/$3.2B | +2.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.90/$1.05 | -14.3% | $2.8B/$3.1B | -9.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$13.3B
+6.2% YoY
FY2
$14.2B
+6.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.90
— YoY
FY2
$5.32
+8.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$5.0B
FCF Margin: 39.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
MPLX beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
MPLX Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $6.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Service
65.7%
+5.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Service is the largest disclosed segment at 65.7% of FY 2025 revenue, up 5.1% YoY.
MPLX Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $84 — implies +48.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
48.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MPLX
11.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
54% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
MPLX
11.5x
vs
Energy
16.8x
31% discount
vs MPLX 5Y Avg P/E
Today
11.5x
vs
5Y Average
10.2x
+13% premium
Forward PE
12.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
-34%
Energy
13.2x
-5%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
11.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
-54%
Energy
16.8x
-31%
5Y Avg
10.2x
+13%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.74x
—
Energy
0.50x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
13.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
-13%
Energy
7.9x
+67%
5Y Avg
10.1x
+30%
Price/FCF
13.8x
S&P 500
21.3x
-35%
Energy
13.3x
+4%
5Y Avg
9.3x
+49%
Price/Sales
4.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+53%
Energy
1.6x
+200%
5Y Avg
3.8x
+26%
Dividend Yield
7.08%
S&P 500
1.87%
+279%
Energy
2.89%
+145%
5Y Avg
8.69%
-18%
| Metric | MPLX | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg MPLX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.6x | 19.1x-34% | 13.2x | — |
| Trailing PE | 11.5x | 25.2x-54% | 16.8x-31% | 10.2x+13% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.74x | 0.50x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.2x | 15.2x-13% | 7.9x+67% | 10.1x+30% |
| Price/FCF | 13.8x | 21.3x-35% | 13.3x | 9.3x+49% |
| Price/Sales | 4.8x | 3.1x+53% | 1.6x+200% | 3.8x+26% |
| Dividend Yield | 7.08% | 1.87% | 2.89% | 8.69% |
MPLX trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMPLX Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
MPLX generates $5.0B in free cash flow at a 39.8% margin — returns 7.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$12.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+12.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
60.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
44.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
37.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
—
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$5.0B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
39.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.1B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$24.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.8× FCF
~4.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
32.8%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (9.9%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
7.8%
Dividend
7.1%
Buyback
0.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$400M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.94
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
81.8%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.0B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageMPLX Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Substantial Debt
MPLX carries significant debt obligations that could impair its financial condition and ability to meet debt commitments. Rising interest rates could further increase financing costs and limit capital raising capacity.
High Risk
Interest Rate Increases
Higher rates can negatively affect MPLX's unit price, its ability to issue equity or debt, and its capacity to maintain distributions.
Medium
Commodity Price Volatility
Fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas prices, especially NGL exposure, can lead to increased earnings volatility and potential revenue contraction.
Medium
Regulatory Scrutiny on Emissions
Heightened federal scrutiny on greenhouse gas emissions and environmental justice can delay permits and raise capital costs for new pipelines.
Lower
Operational Dependence on Third Parties
MPLX relies on third parties for gathering, transportation, and storage of oil, gas, and refined products, exposing it to service disruptions and cost overruns.
Lower
Overcapacity in LPG Exports
Potential overcapacity in LPG exports could reduce utilization rates and weaken returns.
Lower
Climate Change Regulations
Evolving environmental laws and GHG emission regulations could increase operational costs and regulatory obligations.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MPLX Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Dividend Yield with Growth
MPLX offers a dividend yield of 7.5‑8% and has raised distributions by 12.5% in recent years. Management has guided for similar growth over the next two years, making it attractive for income‑focused investors.
Stable Fee‑Based Cash Flows
The company’s midstream model generates stable, fee‑based cash flows that are less exposed to commodity price volatility. The Crude Oil and Products Logistics segment is a significant contributor to profitability.
Strategic LNG & Data Center Expansion
MPLX is investing heavily in its Natural Gas and NGL Services segment, targeting LNG export capacity and the growing needs of AI‑driven data centers. Projects such as the BANGL Pipeline expansion are key to this strategy.
Strong Balance Sheet & Low Leverage
MPLX maintains a leverage ratio below 4x and generates substantial net cash from operating activities, supporting dividend payments and growth initiatives.
Operational Execution & Throughput Growth
Recent earnings reports show EPS beats and growth in adjusted EBITDA, while the company achieved record throughput in its Natural Gas and NGL Services segment.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MPLX Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$55.66
52W Range Position
65%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$47.80
+16.4% from the low
52-Week High
$59.98
-7.2% from the high
1 Month
0.00%
3 Month
-0.61%
YTD
+3.3%
1 Year
+11.8%
3Y CAGR
+17.9%
5Y CAGR
+14.5%
10Y CAGR
+6.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MPLX vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.6x
vs 13.1x median
-4% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.2%
vs +6.5% median
-4% below peer median
Net Margin
37.5%
vs 9.4% median
+298% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MPL MPLX MPLX Lp | $56.5B | 12.6x | +6.2% | 37.5% | Buy | +8.2% |
EPD EPD Enterprise Products Partners L.P. | $81.2B | 13.1x | -0.8% | 11.0% | Buy | -1.5% |
ET ET Energy Transfer LP | $68.4B | 12.3x | +9.5% | 5.9% | Buy | -4.4% |
PAA PAA Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. | $15.6B | 13.8x | +6.1% | 3.2% | Buy | +1.9% |
WES WES Western Midstream Partners, LP | $16.8B | 12.9x | +6.5% | 29.9% | Hold | -0.6% |
TRG TRGP Targa Resources Corp. | $53.6B | 24.6x | +6.7% | 9.4% | Buy | -4.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MPLX Dividend and Capital Return
MPLX returns 7.8% total yield, led by a 7.08% dividend. Buybacks add another 0.7%.
Dividend WatchFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
7.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.7%
Dividend Yield
7.08%
Payout Ratio
81.8%
How MPLX Splits Its Return
Div 7.08%
Dividend 7.08%Buybacks 0.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.94
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
10.9%
5Y Div CAGR
7.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$400M
Estimated Shares Retired
7M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.0B
At 0.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.08 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.95 | +12.5% | 0.7% | 8.1% |
| 2024 | $3.51 | +10.4% | 0.7% | 8.0% |
| 2023 | $3.18 | +9.9% | 1.6% | 10.3% |
| 2022 | $2.89 | -13.5% | 1.5% | 10.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsMPLX Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is MPLX Lp (MPLX) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
MPLX Lp (MPLX) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 28 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $60, implying +8.2% from the current price of $56. The bear case scenario is $8 and the bull case is $96.
02What is the MPLX stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MPLX is $60 based on 28 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $63 (+13.2% from today), and the low-end target is $59 (+6.0%). The base case model target is $61.
03Is MPLX Lp (MPLX) stock overvalued in 2026?
MPLX trades at 12.6x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for MPLX Lp (MPLX) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MPLX in 2026 are: (1) Substantial Debt — MPLX carries significant debt obligations that could impair its financial condition and ability to meet debt commitments. (2) Interest Rate Increases — Higher rates can negatively affect MPLX's unit price, its ability to issue equity or debt, and its capacity to maintain distributions. (3) Commodity Price Volatility — Fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas prices, especially NGL exposure, can lead to increased earnings volatility and potential revenue contraction. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is MPLX Lp's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MPLX will report consensus revenue of $13.3B (+6.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.90 for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $14.2B in revenue.
06When does MPLX Lp (MPLX) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for MPLX is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does MPLX Lp generate?
MPLX Lp (MPLX) generated $5.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 39.8%. MPLX returns capital to shareholders through dividends (7.1% yield) and share repurchases ($400M TTM).