Upside case
Bull case
$174+174.1%
TRMB would need investors to value it at roughly 56x earnings — about 36x more generous than today's 21x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Trimble Inc. (TRMB) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
28
analysts
17 bullish · 1 bearish · 28 covering TRMB
Strong Buy
0
Buy
17
Hold
10
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$95
+49.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$51 – $174
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
28
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
20.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $15.0B
TRMB price targets
Three scenarios for where TRMB stock could go
Current
~$63
Confidence
63 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $63
Bear
$51
Base
$101
Bull
$174
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$101+58.8%
At 33x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$51-19.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push TRMB down roughly 19% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Trimble Inc.
TRMB · NASDAQTechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsDecember year-end
Trimble is a technology company that provides positioning, modeling, and connectivity solutions for industries like construction, agriculture, and transportation. It generates revenue through hardware sales (surveying equipment, GPS receivers), software subscriptions (design, project management), and recurring services—with its Buildings & Infrastructure segment being the largest contributor at roughly 60% of total revenue. The company's competitive moat lies in its deeply integrated hardware-software ecosystem and extensive industry-specific applications that create high switching costs for professional users.
Market Cap
$15.0B
Revenue TTM
$3.7B
Net Income TTM
$456M
Net Margin
12.4%
TRMB Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+8.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.71/$0.63
Revenue
$876M/$835M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.81/$0.72
Revenue
$901M/$871M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.00/$0.96
Revenue
$970M/$950M
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.79/$0.72
Revenue
$940M/$906M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.71/$0.63 | +13.6% | $876M/$835M | +4.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.81/$0.72 | +12.8% | $901M/$871M | +3.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.00/$0.96 | +4.2% | $970M/$950M | +2.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.79/$0.72 | +9.7% | $940M/$906M | +3.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.6B
-0.9% YoY
FY2
$3.6B
+1.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.47
+39.7% YoY
FY2
$2.78
+12.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$253M
FCF Margin: 6.9%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.71
Expected Revenue
$906M
TRMB beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
TRMB Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $3.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Service
65.1%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North America
56.4%
+3.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Service is the largest disclosed segment at 65.1% of FY 2024 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
North America is the largest reported region at 56.4%, up 3.0% YoY.
TRMB Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $68 — implies -1.0% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
1.0%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TRMB
36.2x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+44% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
TRMB
36.2x
vs
Technology
27.5x
+32% premium
vs TRMB 5Y Avg P/E
Today
36.2x
vs
5Y Average
34.4x
+5% premium
Forward PE
20.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
+8%
Technology
21.7x
-5%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
36.2x
S&P 500
25.2x
+44%
Technology
27.5x
+32%
5Y Avg
34.4x
+5%
PEG Ratio
14.75x
S&P 500
1.75x
+745%
Technology
1.47x
+906%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
20.5x
S&P 500
15.3x
+35%
Technology
17.4x
+18%
5Y Avg
25.3x
-19%
Price/FCF
112.8x
S&P 500
21.3x
+429%
Technology
19.8x
+470%
5Y Avg
53.6x
+111%
Price/Sales
4.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+34%
Technology
2.4x
+74%
5Y Avg
4.6x
-9%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Technology
1.18%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | TRMB | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg TRMB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 20.5x | 19.1x | 21.7x | — |
| Trailing PE | 36.2x | 25.2x+44% | 27.5x+32% | 34.4x |
| PEG Ratio | 14.75x | 1.75x+745% | 1.47x+906% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.5x | 15.3x+35% | 17.4x+18% | 25.3x-19% |
| Price/FCF | 112.8x | 21.3x+429% | 19.8x+470% | 53.6x+111% |
| Price/Sales | 4.2x | 3.1x+34% | 2.4x+74% | 4.6x |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.18% | — |
TRMB trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTRMB Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
TRMB returns 5.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$3.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+3.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
68.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
17.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
12.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.93
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$253M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
6.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$253M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.5× FCF
~4.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
8.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.7%
Dividend
—
Buyback
5.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$863M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
237M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTRMB Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Slowing Revenue Growth
Trimble's organic revenue growth has averaged only 3.1% year-on-year over the last two years, which is underwhelming. Projections indicate a potential drop of 6.7% in revenue over the next 12 months, significantly lagging behind the industry's forecast of 33% annual expansion.
High Risk
Declining Operating Cash Flow
Operating cash flow has decreased by 11% in the last fiscal year, indicating weakened cash generation capabilities. This decline raises concerns about the company's ability to fund operations and investments.
High Risk
Tightening Short-Term Liquidity
The current ratio has fallen to 0.94 in the most recent quarter from an adequate 1.27, suggesting potential pressure on Trimble's ability to meet immediate obligations. This decline in liquidity could hinder operational flexibility.
Medium
Impact of One-Time Asset Sale on Net Income
Reported net income has been artificially inflated due to a significant one-time gain from an asset sale. This raises concerns about the sustainability of profitability moving forward.
Medium
Inefficient Capital Use
Trimble's Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) was a weak 4.0% in the last fiscal year, indicating that the company may not be creating sufficient value for its shareholders with its capital base. This inefficiency could limit future growth opportunities.
Medium
Subdued Revenue Outlook Compared to Industry
Trimble's revenue growth projections are relatively subdued compared to the wider industry, which could put its share price at risk of declining. This disparity may affect investor sentiment and market valuation.
Lower
Dependence on Positive Industry Fundamentals
The company's performance is closely tied to positive industry trends, particularly in the construction sector. Any downturn in industry fundamentals could adversely impact Trimble's financial performance.
Lower
Mixed Analyst Sentiment
While the consensus rating among analysts is 'Buy,' some analyses suggest a cautious sentiment due to industry fundamentals and competitive risks. An AI model gives a 'Hold' rating, indicating a near-even balance of positive and negative signals.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TRMB Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Shift to Software and Recurring Revenue
Trimble has been actively transitioning its business towards higher-value software and services, which now represent a significant portion of its revenue (79% as of February 2026). This shift has led to increased gross margins and a growing base of recurring revenue, with the AECO segment achieving a 17% organic ARR increase.
Strong Financial Performance and Guidance
The company has demonstrated consistent outperformance, exceeding consensus earnings estimates in the last four quarters. Management has provided guidance for higher 2026 revenue and earnings, projecting $4.5 billion in revenue and $845.3 million in earnings by 2029, with fiscal year 2025 guidance indicating an adjusted organic growth rate of 8.0%-9.0%.
AI Integration and Strategic Acquisitions
Trimble is capitalizing on the AI trend by integrating AI-powered solutions to enhance productivity and drive incremental ARR. The acquisition of Document Crunch, an AI-powered contract analysis platform for construction, underscores this strategy to deepen its software and technology offerings.
Shareholder Returns
Trimble has been actively repurchasing shares, with a $1 billion share buyback authorization in place. This demonstrates management's confidence in the company's valuation and can boost earnings per share.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
Analysts generally hold a positive view of Trimble, with a consensus rating of 'Moderate Buy' or 'Buy'. The average 12-month price target suggests significant upside potential, clustering around $90.58 to $92.78, representing a 31% to 39.22% increase from recent stock prices.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TRMB Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$63.42
52W Range Position
6%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$62.00
+2.3% from the low
52-Week High
$87.50
-27.5% from the high
1 Month
-2.54%
3 Month
-4.13%
YTD
-19.0%
1 Year
+0.2%
3Y CAGR
+10.1%
5Y CAGR
-3.5%
10Y CAGR
+10.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TRMB vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
20.5x
vs 39.0x median
-47% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-0.9%
vs +9.3% median
-109% below peer median
Net Margin
12.4%
vs 16.9% median
-27% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TRM TRMB Trimble Inc. | $15.0B | 20.5x | -0.9% | 12.4% | Buy | +49.8% |
KEY KEYS Keysight Technologies, Inc. | $62.9B | 41.2x | +7.7% | 16.9% | Buy | -21.1% |
NOV NOVT Novanta Inc. | $5.0B | 39.0x | +5.3% | 5.5% | Buy | +8.0% |
GRM GRMN Garmin Ltd. | $46.8B | 25.5x | +13.0% | 23.3% | Hold | +10.8% |
OSI OSIS OSI Systems, Inc. | $4.0B | 23.0x | +9.3% | 8.4% | Buy | +22.2% |
CDN CDNS Cadence Design Systems, Inc. | $98.0B | 44.7x | +15.0% | 20.9% | Buy | +4.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TRMB Dividend and Capital Return
TRMB returns 5.7% annually — null% through dividends and 5.7% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
5.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
5.7%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$863M
Estimated Shares Retired
14M
Approx. Share Reduction
5.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
237M
At 5.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsTRMB Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Trimble Inc. (TRMB) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Trimble Inc. (TRMB) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 28 analysts covering the stock, 17 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $95, implying +49.8% from the current price of $63. The bear case scenario is $51 and the bull case is $174.
02What is the TRMB stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TRMB is $95 based on 28 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $101 (+59.3% from today), and the low-end target is $86 (+35.6%). The base case model target is $101.
03Is Trimble Inc. (TRMB) stock overvalued in 2026?
TRMB trades at 20.5x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Trimble Inc. (TRMB) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TRMB in 2026 are: (1) Slowing Revenue Growth — Trimble's organic revenue growth has averaged only 3. (2) Declining Operating Cash Flow — Operating cash flow has decreased by 11% in the last fiscal year, indicating weakened cash generation capabilities. (3) Tightening Short-Term Liquidity — The current ratio has fallen to 0. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Trimble Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TRMB will report consensus revenue of $3.6B (-0.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.47 (+39.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.6B in revenue.
06When does Trimble Inc. (TRMB) report its next earnings?
Trimble Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $0.71 and revenue of $906M. Over recent quarters, TRMB has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Trimble Inc. generate?
Trimble Inc. (TRMB) generated $253M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 6.9%. TRMB returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($863M TTM).