Upside case
Bull case
$668+82.1%
KEYS would need investors to value it at roughly 75x earnings — about 34x more generous than today's 41x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Keysight Technologies, Inc. (KEYS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
15
analysts
12 bullish · 0 bearish · 15 covering KEYS
Strong Buy
0
Buy
12
Hold
3
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$289
-21.1% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $668
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
15
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
41.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $62.9B
KEYS price targets
Three scenarios for where KEYS stock could go
Current
~$367
Confidence
55 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $367
Base
$511
Bull
$668
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$511+39.4%
At 57x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Keysight Technologies, Inc.
KEYS · NYSETechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsOctober year-end
Keysight Technologies is a leading provider of electronic design and test measurement solutions for communications, aerospace, automotive, and semiconductor industries. It generates revenue primarily from selling test equipment (~70%) and electronic design automation software (~30%) across its Communications Solutions and Electronic Industrial Solutions segments. The company's competitive moat stems from its deep domain expertise, comprehensive product portfolio, and strong customer relationships built over decades as part of Hewlett-Packard's test and measurement heritage.
Market Cap
$62.9B
Revenue TTM
$5.7B
Net Income TTM
$958M
Net Margin
16.9%
KEYS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.70/$1.65
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.3B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.72/$1.67
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.91/$1.83
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.17/$2.00
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.70/$1.65 | +3.0% | $1.3B/$1.3B | +1.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.72/$1.67 | +3.0% | $1.4B/$1.3B | +2.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.91/$1.83 | +4.4% | $1.4B/$1.4B | +2.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.17/$2.00 | +8.5% | $1.6B/$1.5B | +3.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$6.1B
+7.7% YoY
FY2
$6.4B
+5.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$6.49
+17.2% YoY
FY2
$6.80
+4.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.5B
FCF Margin: 25.8%
Next Earnings
May 19, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.33
Expected Revenue
$1.7B
KEYS beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
KEYS Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $5.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Communications Solutions Group
68.7%
-7.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
41.3%
-6.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Communications Solutions Group is the largest disclosed segment at 68.7% of FY 2024 revenue, down 7.2% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 41.3%, down 6.8% YoY.
KEYS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $185 — implies -47.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
47.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
KEYS
75.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+198% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
KEYS
75.1x
vs
Technology
27.5x
+173% premium
vs KEYS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
75.1x
vs
5Y Average
33.3x
+126% premium
Forward PE
41.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
+116%
Technology
21.7x
+90%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
75.1x
S&P 500
25.2x
+198%
Technology
27.5x
+173%
5Y Avg
33.3x
+126%
PEG Ratio
9.38x
S&P 500
1.75x
+437%
Technology
1.47x
+540%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
52.3x
S&P 500
15.3x
+243%
Technology
17.4x
+201%
5Y Avg
21.8x
+140%
Price/FCF
49.1x
S&P 500
21.3x
+130%
Technology
19.8x
+148%
5Y Avg
26.8x
+83%
Price/Sales
11.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+274%
Technology
2.4x
+385%
5Y Avg
5.6x
+111%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Technology
1.18%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | KEYS | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg KEYS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 41.2x | 19.1x+116% | 21.7x+90% | — |
| Trailing PE | 75.1x | 25.2x+198% | 27.5x+173% | 33.3x+126% |
| PEG Ratio | 9.38x | 1.75x+437% | 1.47x+540% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 52.3x | 15.3x+243% | 17.4x+201% | 21.8x+140% |
| Price/FCF | 49.1x | 21.3x+130% | 19.8x+148% | 26.8x+83% |
| Price/Sales | 11.7x | 3.1x+274% | 2.4x+385% | 5.6x+111% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.18% | — |
KEYS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolKEYS Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
KEYS generates $1.5B in free cash flow at a 25.8% margin — 11.5% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$5.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+13.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
61.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
16.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
16.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.54
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
25.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
11.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.9B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.7× FCF
~0.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
15.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.6%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$377M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
173M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageKEYS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Valuation Risk
Keysight trades at a premium valuation, with a P/E ratio significantly higher than industry averages. This leaves little room for error and makes the stock vulnerable to sharp declines if growth expectations are not met.
High Risk
Macroeconomic Conditions
Global economic downturns, inflation, or recessions can cut capital expenditure in Keysight’s core markets such as semiconductor manufacturers and telecom operators, directly pressuring revenue across its segments.
High Risk
Product Security Vulnerabilities
Vulnerabilities in Keysight’s own products, such as the Ixia Vision family, have been found to allow remote code execution and data compromise, potentially leading to significant operational disruptions and reputational damage.
Medium
Intense Competition
Keysight faces fierce competition from established players like Anritsu, Rohde & Schwarz, and Tektronix, as well as modular/software-centric rivals such as NI (Emerson) and VIAVI Solutions, which could erode market share and margin pressure.
Medium
Tariffs & Trade Policy
Tariffs and trade policy changes can reduce profitability by increasing costs or limiting market access, especially in key regions where Keysight sources components or sells its equipment.
Medium
Emerging Technology Adoption
While Keysight is positioned to benefit from emerging technologies like 6G and AI, the uncertainty around adoption timelines and market readiness introduces revenue timing risks.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why KEYS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
AI & 6G Demand Surge
Keysight’s Communications Solutions Group and Electronic Industrial Solutions Group drove a 23% year‑over‑year revenue increase in Q1 2026, fueled by AI infrastructure, data centers, semiconductors, and advanced AI chips. The company’s role as a key supplier for AI networking and 6G development positions it to capture continued growth in high‑speed data center testing.
Robust Defense & Aerospace Pipeline
Demand from the defense market is strong, with increasing European defense budgets contributing to growth. Keysight’s aerospace modernization portfolio benefits from this trend, providing a stable revenue stream amid broader market volatility.
Strategic Acquisition Synergies
Recent acquisitions in satellite communications and AI‑driven network testing are expected to deliver significant revenue and cost synergies in fiscal year 2026. Management projects these deals to materially enhance Keysight’s product offering and margin profile.
Strong Financial Position
Keysight boasts high gross margins, a substantial cash balance, and a $2.7 billion order backlog, offering excellent visibility into future revenue. The company’s robust financials support continued investment and share repurchase initiatives.
Bullish Technical Momentum
The stock exhibits a bull flag pattern and has experienced significant price appreciation, indicating strong market interest. These technical indicators suggest potential for further upside as demand drivers materialize.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
KEYS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$366.68
52W Range Position
100%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$145.51
+152.0% from the low
52-Week High
$366.74
-0.0% from the high
1 Month
+25.18%
3 Month
+58.77%
YTD
+77.5%
1 Year
+150.2%
3Y CAGR
+36.8%
5Y CAGR
+20.8%
10Y CAGR
+30.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
KEYS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
41.2x
vs 29.7x median
+39% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.7%
vs +5.3% median
+44% above peer median
Net Margin
16.9%
vs 10.6% median
+59% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KEY KEYS Keysight Technologies, Inc. | $62.9B | 41.2x | +7.7% | 16.9% | Buy | -21.1% |
TRM TRMB Trimble Inc. | $15.0B | 20.5x | -0.9% | 12.4% | Buy | +49.8% |
ITR ITRI Itron, Inc. | $3.7B | 13.8x | +1.8% | 12.3% | Hold | +65.1% |
MKS MKSI MKS Inc. | $19.8B | 29.7x | +9.6% | 7.5% | Buy | -7.1% |
COH COHR Coherent, Inc. | $54.7B | 64.2x | +18.1% | 10.6% | Buy | -26.7% |
NOV NOVT Novanta Inc. | $5.0B | 39.0x | +5.3% | 5.5% | Buy | +8.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
KEYS Dividend and Capital Return
KEYS returns 0.6% annually — null% through dividends and 0.6% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.6%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$377M
Estimated Shares Retired
1M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
173M
At 0.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsKEYS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Keysight Technologies, Inc. (KEYS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Keysight Technologies, Inc. (KEYS) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 15 analysts covering the stock, 12 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $289, implying -21.1% from the current price of $367.
02What is the KEYS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for KEYS is $289 based on 15 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $384 (+4.7% from today), and the low-end target is $220 (-40.0%). The base case model target is $511.
03Is Keysight Technologies, Inc. (KEYS) stock overvalued in 2026?
KEYS trades at 41.2x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Keysight Technologies, Inc. (KEYS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for KEYS in 2026 are: (1) Valuation Risk — Keysight trades at a premium valuation, with a P/E ratio significantly higher than industry averages. (2) Macroeconomic Conditions — Global economic downturns, inflation, or recessions can cut capital expenditure in Keysight’s core markets such as semiconductor manufacturers and telecom operators, directly pressuring revenue across its segments. (3) Product Security Vulnerabilities — Vulnerabilities in Keysight’s own products, such as the Ixia Vision family, have been found to allow remote code execution and data compromise, potentially leading to significant operational disruptions and reputational damage. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Keysight Technologies, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates KEYS will report consensus revenue of $6.1B (+7.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $6.49 (+17.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $6.4B in revenue.
06When does Keysight Technologies, Inc. (KEYS) report its next earnings?
Keysight Technologies, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-19. Consensus expects EPS of $2.33 and revenue of $1.7B. Over recent quarters, KEYS has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Keysight Technologies, Inc. generate?
Keysight Technologies, Inc. (KEYS) generated $1.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 25.8%. KEYS returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($377M TTM).