Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing KHC more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
35
analysts
4 bullish · 10 bearish · 35 covering KHC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
4
Hold
21
Sell
10
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$23
+1.3% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
35
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
11.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $27.3B
KHC price targets
Three scenarios for where KHC stock could go
Current
~$23
Confidence
37 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
The Kraft Heinz Company
KHC · NASDAQConsumer DefensivePackaged FoodsDecember year-end
Kraft Heinz is a global packaged foods giant that manufactures and sells a vast portfolio of iconic food brands across condiments, cheese, meals, and beverages. It generates revenue primarily through retail grocery sales—including supermarkets, club stores, and mass merchants—and foodservice distribution to restaurants and institutions, with its North American retail business representing the largest segment. The company's key advantage lies in its portfolio of deeply entrenched, century-old household brands—like Heinz ketchup and Kraft Mac & Cheese—that benefit from massive scale, extensive distribution networks, and strong consumer loyalty.
Market Cap
$27.3B
Revenue TTM
$25.0B
Net Income TTM
-$5.8B
Net Margin
-23.0%
KHC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.69/$0.64
Revenue
$6.4B/$6.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.61/$0.58
Revenue
$6.2B/$6.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.67/$0.61
Revenue
$6.4B/$6.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.58/$0.50
Revenue
$6.0B/$5.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.69/$0.64 | +8.3% | $6.4B/$6.3B | +1.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.61/$0.58 | +4.6% | $6.2B/$6.3B | -0.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.67/$0.61 | +9.8% | $6.4B/$6.4B | -0.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.58/$0.50 | +16.0% | $6.0B/$5.9B | +2.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$24.6B
-2.1% YoY
FY2
$24.4B
-0.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-1.17
+68.3% YoY
FY2
$-1.22
-4.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.9B
FCF Margin: 15.8%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.50
Expected Revenue
$5.9B
KHC beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
KHC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $24.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Taste Elevation
45.2%
-0.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
United States Segment
67.3%
-5.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Taste Elevation is the largest disclosed segment at 45.2% of FY 2025 revenue, down 0.8% YoY.
United States Segment is the largest reported region at 67.3%, down 5.5% YoY.
KHC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $32 — implies +42.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
42.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
KHC
-4.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
119% discount
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
KHC
-4.7x
vs
Consumer Defensive
19.6x
124% discount
vs KHC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-4.7x
vs
5Y Average
23.5x
120% discount
Forward PE
11.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
-41%
Consumer Defensive
14.6x
-23%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-4.7x
S&P 500
25.2x
-119%
Consumer Defensive
19.6x
-124%
5Y Avg
23.5x
-120%
PEG Ratio
1.53x
S&P 500
1.75x
-12%
Consumer Defensive
1.85x
-18%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.3x
—
Consumer Defensive
11.4x
—
5Y Avg
15.5x
—
Price/FCF
7.5x
S&P 500
21.3x
-65%
Consumer Defensive
15.7x
-53%
5Y Avg
15.4x
-52%
Price/Sales
1.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-65%
Consumer Defensive
0.8x
+29%
5Y Avg
1.6x
-30%
Dividend Yield
6.93%
S&P 500
1.88%
+269%
Consumer Defensive
2.73%
+153%
5Y Avg
4.90%
+41%
| Metric | KHC | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg KHC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 11.3x | 19.1x-41% | 14.6x-23% | — |
| Trailing PE | -4.7x | 25.2x-119% | 19.6x-124% | 23.5x-120% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.53x | 1.75x-12% | 1.85x-18% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.3x | 11.4x | 15.5x |
| Price/FCF | 7.5x | 21.3x-65% | 15.7x-53% | 15.4x-52% |
| Price/Sales | 1.1x | 3.1x-65% | 0.8x+29% | 1.6x-30% |
| Dividend Yield | 6.93% | 1.88% | 2.73% | 4.90% |
KHC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolKHC Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
KHC generates $3.9B in free cash flow at a 15.8% margin — returns 8.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$25.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-1.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
33.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-18.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-23.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-4.85
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.9B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
15.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-5.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-7.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.6B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$18.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.7× FCF
~4.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-13.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
8.5%
Dividend
6.9%
Buyback
1.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$436M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.60
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.2B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageKHC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Financial Health
Kraft Heinz’s Z‑Score falls in the distress zone, and its current ratio of 1.06 and quick ratio of 0.73 indicate a break‑even liquidity position. The company carries roughly $37 billion in total liabilities that exceed its cash and near‑term receivables, exposing it to potential financial distress.
Medium
Sales and Market Position
The company has recorded declining sales for eight consecutive quarters, with a 3.5 % drop in volume/mix in Q3 2025. Intense competition and consumer pushback on higher prices are eroding revenue growth in key product categories.
Medium
Corporate Activity
The planned split into two entities could limit Kraft Heinz’s access to capital markets and raise its cost of capital, while also increasing stock price volatility. This restructuring may adversely affect the company’s financial flexibility and investor confidence.
Medium
Operational and Supply Chain Risks
Approximately 33 % of 2025 net sales are generated outside the U.S., exposing the company to geopolitical and currency risks. Water‑related climate risks in its agricultural supply chain could raise input costs and reduce revenue, while adverse weather and natural disasters pose additional operational disruptions.
Lower
ESG Factors
Kraft Heinz’s product portfolio contains high levels of sugar, salt, and fat, and the company faces criticism over its environmental footprint, including emissions, water usage, and packaging waste. Past regulatory fines for manipulating wheat futures and a supplier linked to forced Uyghur labor raise ethical concerns.
Lower
Impairment Charges
In 2025, Kraft Heinz recorded a $9.3 billion non‑cash goodwill impairment, reducing its intangible assets from $59.7 billion. While significant, this one‑time charge is unlikely to materially alter the company’s long‑term financial outlook.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why KHC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Dividend Yield Advantage
Kraft Heinz offers a $0.40 per share dividend, translating to an annualized $1.60 payout and a 7.1% yield. This steady income stream provides a compelling return for income‑focused investors.
Strategic Split into GTE & NAG
The planned split creates Global Taste Elevation Co (GTE) and North American Grocery Co (NAG). GTE will target mid‑single‑digit growth through global sauces and shelf‑stable brands, while NAG focuses on stable free cash flow and a strong dividend.
Brand Investment & Portfolio Reshaping
Analysts highlight brand investment and portfolio reshaping as key supports for future earnings and margins. Emerging market exposure and away‑from‑home channels are expected to drive growth.
Agile Turnaround Investments
Kraft Heinz is executing an “Agile Turnaround” to reinvigorate its iconic pantry staples. Aggressive turnaround investments are being made to lift margins and restore brand strength.
Strong Earnings Momentum
Earnings are forecast to grow at a 51.35% annual rate, with a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 0.46 indicating solid leverage. This combination supports robust future EPS growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
KHC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$23.07
52W Range Position
25%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$21.04
+9.7% from the low
52-Week High
$29.19
-21.0% from the high
1 Month
-2.12%
3 Month
-6.37%
YTD
-5.4%
1 Year
-18.8%
3Y CAGR
-17.5%
5Y CAGR
-11.8%
10Y CAGR
-12.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
KHC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
11.3x
vs 10.2x median
+11% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-2.1%
vs +1.4% median
-251% below peer median
Net Margin
-23.0%
vs 4.0% median
-672% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KHC KHC The Kraft Heinz Company | $27.3B | 11.3x | -2.1% | -23.0% | Hold | +1.3% |
GIS GIS General Mills, Inc. | $18.7B | 10.2x | -0.1% | 12.1% | Hold | +32.8% |
CPB CPB Campbell Soup Company | $6.2B | 9.6x | +2.7% | 5.5% | Hold | +23.2% |
CAG CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. | $6.7B | 8.3x | +0.7% | 0.1% | Hold | +24.7% |
SJM SJM The J. M. Smucker Company | $10.3B | 10.7x | +3.6% | -14.1% | Hold | +17.1% |
HRL HRL Hormel Foods Corporation | $11.4B | 14.1x | +1.4% | 4.0% | Hold | +31.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
KHC Dividend and Capital Return
KHC returns 8.5% total yield, led by a 6.93% dividend. Buybacks add another 1.6%.
Dividend UnknownFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
8.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.6%
Dividend Yield
6.93%
Payout Ratio
—
How KHC Splits Its Return
Div 6.93%
Dividend 6.93%Buybacks 1.6%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.60
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.0%
5Y Div CAGR
0.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$436M
Estimated Shares Retired
19M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.2B
At 1.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.60 | 0.0% | 1.5% | 8.1% |
| 2024 | $1.60 | 0.0% | 2.7% | 7.8% |
| 2023 | $1.60 | 0.0% | 1.0% | 5.3% |
| 2022 | $1.60 | 0.0% | 0.6% | 4.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsKHC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 35 analysts covering the stock, 4 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 21 rate it Hold, and 10 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $23, implying +1.3% from the current price of $23.
02What is the KHC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for KHC is $23 based on 35 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $27 (+17.0% from today), and the low-end target is $18 (-22.0%).
03Is The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) stock overvalued in 2026?
KHC trades at 11.3x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for KHC in 2026 are: (1) Financial Health — Kraft Heinz’s Z‑Score falls in the distress zone, and its current ratio of 1. (2) Sales and Market Position — The company has recorded declining sales for eight consecutive quarters, with a 3. (3) Corporate Activity — The planned split into two entities could limit Kraft Heinz’s access to capital markets and raise its cost of capital, while also increasing stock price volatility. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is The Kraft Heinz Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates KHC will report consensus revenue of $24.6B (-2.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $-1.17 (+68.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $24.4B in revenue.
06When does The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) report its next earnings?
The Kraft Heinz Company is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $0.50 and revenue of $5.9B. Over recent quarters, KHC has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does The Kraft Heinz Company generate?
The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) generated $3.9B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 15.8%. KHC returns capital to shareholders through dividends (6.9% yield) and share repurchases ($436M TTM).