Upside case
Bull case
$336+156.5%
UMBF would need investors to value it at roughly 26x earnings — about 16x more generous than today's 10x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
18
analysts
10 bullish · 0 bearish · 18 covering UMBF
Strong Buy
1
Buy
9
Hold
8
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$150
+14.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$110 – $336
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
18
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
10.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.0B
UMBF price targets
Three scenarios for where UMBF stock could go
Current
~$131
Confidence
60 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $131
Bear
$110
Base
$268
Bull
$336
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$268+104.5%
At 21x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$110-16.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push UMBF down roughly 16% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
UMB Financial Corporation
UMBF · NASDAQFinancial ServicesBanks - RegionalDecember year-end
UMB Financial Corporation is a regional bank holding company that provides commercial banking, institutional banking, and wealth management services. It generates revenue primarily through net interest income from loans and deposits (about 60% of total revenue) and fee-based services including asset management, institutional custody, and payment processing (roughly 40%). The company's competitive advantage lies in its specialized institutional banking expertise—particularly in healthcare services and fund administration—and its relationship-focused commercial banking model in its Midwest footprint.
Market Cap
$10.0B
Net Income TTM
$883M
UMBF Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+13.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.96/$2.37
Revenue
$633M/$652M
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.70/$2.50
Revenue
$1.1B/$662M
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.08/$2.71
Revenue
$721M/$678M
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.41/$2.82
Revenue
$739M/$702M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.96/$2.37 | +24.9% | $633M/$652M | -2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.70/$2.50 | +8.0% | $1.1B/$662M | +64.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.08/$2.71 | +13.7% | $721M/$678M | +6.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.41/$2.82 | +20.9% | $739M/$702M | +5.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$5.9B
+33.2% YoY
FY2
$8.9B
+50.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$14.32
+23.8% YoY
FY2
$18.67
+30.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$985M
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
UMBF beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
UMBF Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $73M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Other Financial Services
94.0%
+15.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Other Financial Services is the largest disclosed segment at 94.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 15.3% YoY.
UMBF Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $121 — implies -6.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
6.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
UMBF
14.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
43% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
UMBF
14.4x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
+8% premium
vs UMBF 5Y Avg P/E
Today
14.4x
vs
5Y Average
12.2x
+18% premium
Forward PE
10.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
-46%
Financial Services
10.4x
-1%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
14.4x
S&P 500
25.1x
-43%
Financial Services
13.3x
+8%
5Y Avg
12.2x
+18%
PEG Ratio
1.59x
S&P 500
1.72x
-7%
Financial Services
1.01x
+57%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
12.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
-21%
Financial Services
11.4x
+6%
5Y Avg
7.9x
+54%
Price/FCF
10.2x
S&P 500
21.1x
-52%
Financial Services
10.6x
-3%
5Y Avg
12.3x
-17%
Price/Sales
2.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
-28%
Financial Services
2.2x
+1%
5Y Avg
2.5x
-11%
Dividend Yield
1.35%
S&P 500
1.87%
-28%
Financial Services
2.70%
-50%
5Y Avg
1.56%
-13%
| Metric | UMBF | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg UMBF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 10.3x | 19.1x-46% | 10.4x | — |
| Trailing PE | 14.4x | 25.1x-43% | 13.3x | 12.2x+18% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.59x | 1.72x | 1.01x+57% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.1x | 15.2x-21% | 11.4x | 7.9x+54% |
| Price/FCF | 10.2x | 21.1x-52% | 10.6x | 12.3x-17% |
| Price/Sales | 2.2x | 3.1x-28% | 2.2x | 2.5x-11% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.35% | 1.87% | 2.70% | 1.56% |
UMBF trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolUMBF Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
UMBF generates 11.7% ROE and 1.2% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$11.57
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
11.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$953M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.8B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
11.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.7%
Dividend
1.4%
Buyback
1.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$133M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.77
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
19.3%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
76M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageUMBF Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Interest Rate Sensitivity
UMB Financial (UMBF) has 69% of its loans tied to variable rates, making it highly sensitive to fluctuations in interest rates. This sensitivity could adversely affect its net interest margins and overall profitability, necessitating close monitoring.
High Risk
Acquisition Integration Risks
The acquisition of Heartland Financial USA (HTLF) poses operational risks, including integration challenges and potential customer attrition. Misjudging credit risk during this process could further hinder UMBF's profitability.
High Risk
Economic Downturn Risks
Broader macroeconomic risks, including sustained high inflation and the potential for an economic recession, could negatively impact UMBF and its customers. Geopolitical instability adds another layer of risk to the company's outlook.
Medium
Securities Portfolio Losses
UMB holds a securities portfolio with unrealized losses due to bonds purchased at lower interest rates. Although these bonds will mature and can be reinvested at current market yields, the existing unrealized loss remains a significant concern.
Medium
Insider Selling
Significant insider selling of UMBF stock over the past three months may signal negative sentiment among executives. This trend can be perceived as a lack of confidence in the company's future performance.
Medium
Loan Growth Risks
While UMBF has experienced strong loan growth exceeding peer medians, the acquisition of HTLF's loan book may lead to unseasoned relationships. This could potentially contribute to a deterioration in asset quality over time.
Lower
Market Volatility Risks
Like all stocks, UMBF is subject to market volatility, which carries inherent risks including potential loss of investment. Investors should be aware of the fluctuations that can impact stock performance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why UMBF Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Exceptional Earnings Growth and Profitability
UMB Financial reported a significant increase in net income available to common shareholders, reaching $255.6 million in Q1 2026, a 222.3% year-over-year rise. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) also surged to $3.35, with a return on average assets (ROA) of 1.47% and return on average common equity (ROE) of 13.70%.
Strong Revenue and Improved Efficiency
Total revenue increased by 31.1% year-over-year to $739.2 million, driven by a 34.4% increase in net interest income and a 23.2% rise in non-interest income. The GAAP efficiency ratio improved significantly to 48.4% from 65.2% in the prior year, indicating better operational efficiency.
Successful Heartland Integration
The acquisition of Heartland Financial is showing positive results, with cost synergies fully realized and revenue synergies beginning to materialize. Analysts are closely watching the integration progress, as it is expected to influence future operating efficiency and earnings stability.
Loan and Deposit Growth
Average loans increased by 21.9% year-over-year to $39.4 billion, and average deposits grew by 14.5% to $57.6 billion. Loan growth has been robust, with an annualized rate of 10.8% in Q1 2026.
Solid Credit Quality
Credit quality remains strong, with net charge-offs decreasing to 0.19% of average loans from 0.45% a year ago. The company's conservative underwriting is also noted as a strength, limiting exposure to private credit risks.
Capital Returns and Shareholder Value
The board has declared a higher common dividend and authorized significant share repurchases, signaling a commitment to returning capital to shareholders. Analysts project a fair value of $144.23 per share, suggesting a potential 20% upside.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
UMBF Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$131.06
52W Range Position
87%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$98.16
+33.5% from the low
52-Week High
$136.11
-3.7% from the high
1 Month
+13.93%
3 Month
-0.76%
YTD
+12.5%
1 Year
+29.8%
3Y CAGR
+31.3%
5Y CAGR
+6.1%
10Y CAGR
+9.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
UMBF vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
10.3x
vs 12.9x median
-20% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+33.2%
vs +0.1% median
+35984% above peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UMB UMBF UMB Financial Corporation | $10.0B | 10.3x | +33.2% | — | Buy | +14.8% |
WTF WTFC Wintrust Financial Corporation | $10.1B | 11.6x | -3.0% | — | Buy | +16.0% |
CBS CBSH Commerce Bancshares, Inc. | $7.7B | 12.9x | +0.1% | — | Hold | +12.2% |
BOK BOKF BOK Financial Corporation | $10.4B | 13.2x | +1.9% | — | Hold | -2.4% |
IBC IBCP Independent Bank Corporation | $690M | 9.4x | -3.2% | — | Hold | +13.4% |
FFI FFIN First Financial Bankshares, Inc. | $4.6B | 15.8x | +15.0% | — | Hold | +21.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
UMBF Dividend and Capital Return
UMBF returns 2.7% total yield, led by a 1.35% dividend, raised 23 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 1.3%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.3%
Dividend Yield
1.35%
Payout Ratio
19.3%
How UMBF Splits Its Return
Div 1.35%
Buyback 1.3%
Dividend 1.35%Buybacks 1.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.77
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
23Y
3Y Div CAGR
3.0%
5Y Div CAGR
5.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$133M
Estimated Shares Retired
1M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
76M
At 1.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.86 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.63 | +3.8% | 1.5% | 3.0% |
| 2024 | $1.57 | +2.6% | 0.1% | 1.5% |
| 2023 | $1.53 | +2.7% | 0.2% | 2.0% |
| 2022 | $1.49 | +8.0% | 0.8% | 2.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsUMBF Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 18 analysts covering the stock, 10 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $150, implying +14.8% from the current price of $131. The bear case scenario is $110 and the bull case is $336.
02What is the UMBF stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for UMBF is $150 based on 18 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $170 (+29.7% from today), and the low-end target is $140 (+6.8%). The base case model target is $268.
03Is UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) stock overvalued in 2026?
UMBF trades at 10.3x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for UMBF in 2026 are: (1) Interest Rate Sensitivity — UMB Financial (UMBF) has 69% of its loans tied to variable rates, making it highly sensitive to fluctuations in interest rates. (2) Acquisition Integration Risks — The acquisition of Heartland Financial USA (HTLF) poses operational risks, including integration challenges and potential customer attrition. (3) Economic Downturn Risks — Broader macroeconomic risks, including sustained high inflation and the potential for an economic recession, could negatively impact UMBF and its customers. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is UMB Financial Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates UMBF will report consensus revenue of $5.9B (+33.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $14.32 (+23.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $8.9B in revenue.
06When does UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for UMBF is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does UMB Financial Corporation generate?
UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) generated $985M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. UMBF returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.4% yield) and share repurchases ($133M TTM).