Upside case
Bull case
$399+194.7%
BOKF would need investors to value it at roughly 39x earnings — about 26x more generous than today's 13x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
BOK Financial Corporation (BOKF) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
21
analysts
5 bullish · 0 bearish · 21 covering BOKF
Strong Buy
0
Buy
5
Hold
16
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$132
-2.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$125 – $399
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
21
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
13.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.4B
BOKF price targets
Three scenarios for where BOKF stock could go
Current
~$136
Confidence
55 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $136
Bear
$125
Base
$183
Bull
$399
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$183+34.8%
At 18x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$125-7.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push BOKF down roughly 8% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
BOK Financial Corporation
BOKF · NASDAQFinancial ServicesBanks - RegionalDecember year-end
BOK Financial Corporation is a regional bank holding company providing commercial banking, consumer banking, and wealth management services primarily across the southwestern United States. It generates revenue through interest income from loans (commercial and consumer) and fee-based services from wealth management and treasury operations. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep regional presence and established relationships in its core markets—particularly Oklahoma and Texas—where it has strong commercial banking expertise.
Market Cap
$10.4B
Net Income TTM
$537M
BOKF Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.19/$1.98
Revenue
$529M/$538M
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.22/$2.17
Revenue
$538M/$540M
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.89/$2.16
Revenue
$560M/$549M
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.58/$2.30
Revenue
$552M/$551M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.19/$1.98 | +10.6% | $529M/$538M | -1.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.22/$2.17 | +2.3% | $538M/$540M | -0.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.89/$2.16 | +33.8% | $560M/$549M | +2.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.58/$2.30 | +12.2% | $552M/$551M | +0.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.4B
+1.9% YoY
FY2
$3.8B
+11.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$9.95
+17.1% YoY
FY2
$10.97
+10.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.5B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
BOKF beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
BOKF Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $1.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Fees and commissions revenue
33.8%
+6.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Fees and commissions revenue is the largest disclosed segment at 33.8% of FY 2024 revenue, up 6.0% YoY.
BOKF Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $106 — implies -20.3% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
20.3%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BOKF
16.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
34% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
BOKF
16.7x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
+24% premium
vs BOKF 5Y Avg P/E
Today
16.7x
vs
5Y Average
12.0x
+38% premium
Forward PE
13.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
-30%
Financial Services
10.5x
+26%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
16.7x
S&P 500
25.2x
-34%
Financial Services
13.4x
+24%
5Y Avg
12.0x
+38%
PEG Ratio
5.60x
S&P 500
1.74x
+221%
Financial Services
1.02x
+450%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
17.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
+15%
Financial Services
11.5x
+52%
5Y Avg
13.0x
+35%
Price/FCF
7.3x
S&P 500
21.3x
-66%
Financial Services
10.7x
-32%
5Y Avg
30.4x
-76%
Price/Sales
3.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-1%
Financial Services
2.2x
+38%
5Y Avg
2.7x
+14%
Dividend Yield
1.65%
S&P 500
1.87%
-11%
Financial Services
2.68%
-38%
5Y Avg
2.35%
-29%
| Metric | BOKF | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg BOKF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 13.3x | 19.1x-30% | 10.5x+26% | — |
| Trailing PE | 16.7x | 25.2x-34% | 13.4x+24% | 12.0x+38% |
| PEG Ratio | 5.60x | 1.74x+221% | 1.02x+450% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.4x | 15.2x+15% | 11.5x+52% | 13.0x+35% |
| Price/FCF | 7.3x | 21.3x-66% | 10.7x-32% | 30.4x-76% |
| Price/Sales | 3.1x | 3.1x | 2.2x+38% | 2.7x+14% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.65% | 1.87% | 2.68% | 2.35% |
BOKF trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBOKF Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
BOKF generates 8.9% ROE and 1.1% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$8.49
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
8.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.4B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.0B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
8.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.6%
Dividend
1.7%
Buyback
0.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$94M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.24
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
27.3%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
77M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageBOKF Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Concentrated Exposure Risks
BOKF has significant exposure to the energy sector, which is closely tied to crude oil prices. A downturn in this sector could severely impact borrowers' repayment abilities, particularly given the notable decline in payoffs within the energy sector.
High Risk
Geographic Concentration
The company's geographic concentration in oil and gas-producing states like Oklahoma and Texas heightens the risk associated with its energy sector exposure. Economic downturns in these regions could lead to increased loan defaults.
High Risk
Interest Rate Fluctuations
Changes in interest rates can significantly affect BOKF's net interest margins and overall profitability. The company has already experienced compression in its net interest margin due to rising funding costs.
High Risk
Economic Conditions
Deterioration in general economic conditions, especially in BOKF's core markets, poses a significant risk. Factors such as inflation and potential economic instability could adversely affect the bank's performance.
Medium
Regulatory Developments
Adverse regulatory developments could impact BOKF's ability to implement its operating strategy. The company is closely monitoring potential changes related to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) that may affect its operations.
Medium
Competition
BOKF faces substantial competition from local and national banks, credit unions, broker-dealers, and fintech solutions. This intense competition can lead to compressed lending margins, affecting profitability.
Medium
Operational Risks
Operational risks, including system security breaches and inadequate processes, can lead to significant financial losses. The bank must ensure robust systems and processes to mitigate these risks.
Lower
Funding Sources
Market disruptions can impact BOKF's funding sources, as the bank relies on other financial institutions and the Federal Home Loan Bank. Changes in lending policies from these sources could limit borrowing capacity.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BOKF Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Profitability Metrics
BOK Financial has achieved a net profit margin of 27.4% on a trailing 12-month basis, reflecting an improvement from the previous year. This strong profitability is supported by diversified fee income from wealth management, trading, and treasury services.
Earnings Beat Expectations
In Q1 2026, BOK Financial reported an EPS of $2.58, surpassing the estimate of $2.31. This follows a strong performance in Q4 2025, where the company also exceeded analyst expectations.
Solid Net Interest Income Growth
Management expects net interest income (NII) to be between $1.44 billion and $1.48 billion for 2026, up from $1.3 billion in 2025. This growth is anticipated due to easing funding costs and stabilizing asset yields, which are projected to enhance margins.
Strategic Geographic Expansion
BOK Financial is targeting mid-to-high single-digit loan growth in key growth metros such as Texas, Arizona, and Colorado through 2026. This geographic expansion aims to deepen client relationships and enhance fee-based businesses.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
Analysts have raised their price targets for BOKF, with RBC Capital increasing it to $145 and Raymond James to $150, driven by healthy loan growth and strong credit performance. Zacks has also upgraded BOKF to a Rank #2 (Buy), indicating stronger near-term earnings expectations.
Impressive Market Performance
BOK Financial's stock has gained over 52% in the past year, significantly outperforming its peers and the S&P 500. This strong market performance reflects investor confidence in the company's growth strategies and financial health.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BOKF Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$135.54
52W Range Position
91%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$91.35
+48.4% from the low
52-Week High
$139.73
-3.0% from the high
1 Month
+4.35%
3 Month
-0.75%
YTD
+14.2%
1 Year
+44.9%
3Y CAGR
+20.1%
5Y CAGR
+8.4%
10Y CAGR
+9.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BOKF vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
13.3x
vs 11.8x median
+12% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.9%
vs +3.1% median
-40% below peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BOK BOKF BOK Financial Corporation | $10.4B | 13.3x | +1.9% | — | Hold | -2.9% |
WTF WTFC Wintrust Financial Corporation | $10.3B | 11.8x | -3.0% | — | Buy | +13.9% |
CBS CBSH Commerce Bancshares, Inc. | $7.7B | 13.0x | +0.1% | — | Hold | +11.4% |
UMB UMBF UMB Financial Corporation | $10.2B | 10.5x | +21.2% | — | Buy | +12.3% |
FFI FFIN First Financial Bankshares, Inc. | $4.6B | 16.0x | +15.0% | — | Hold | +20.4% |
IBO IBOC International Bancshares Corporation | $4.5B | 10.8x | +3.1% | — | Buy | +17.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
BOKF Dividend and Capital Return
BOKF returns 2.6% total yield, led by a 1.65% dividend, raised 11 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 0.9%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.9%
Dividend Yield
1.65%
Payout Ratio
27.3%
How BOKF Splits Its Return
Div 1.65%
Buyback 0.9%
Dividend 1.65%Buybacks 0.9%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.24
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
11Y
3Y Div CAGR
-4.2%
5Y Div CAGR
2.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$94M
Estimated Shares Retired
690.7K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
77M
At 0.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.63 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.34 | +5.4% | — | — |
| 2024 | $2.22 | +2.3% | 1.4% | 3.5% |
| 2023 | $2.17 | -18.4% | 3.2% | 5.8% |
| 2022 | $2.66 | +27.3% | 2.3% | 4.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsBOKF Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is BOK Financial Corporation (BOKF) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
BOK Financial Corporation (BOKF) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 21 analysts covering the stock, 5 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 16 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $132, implying -2.9% from the current price of $136. The bear case scenario is $125 and the bull case is $399.
02What is the BOKF stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for BOKF is $132 based on 21 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $140 (+3.3% from today), and the low-end target is $115 (-15.2%). The base case model target is $183.
03Is BOK Financial Corporation (BOKF) stock overvalued in 2026?
BOKF trades at 13.3x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for BOK Financial Corporation (BOKF) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BOKF in 2026 are: (1) Concentrated Exposure Risks — BOKF has significant exposure to the energy sector, which is closely tied to crude oil prices. (2) Geographic Concentration — The company's geographic concentration in oil and gas-producing states like Oklahoma and Texas heightens the risk associated with its energy sector exposure. (3) Interest Rate Fluctuations — Changes in interest rates can significantly affect BOKF's net interest margins and overall profitability. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is BOK Financial Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BOKF will report consensus revenue of $3.4B (+1.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $9.95 (+17.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.8B in revenue.
06When does BOK Financial Corporation (BOKF) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for BOKF is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does BOK Financial Corporation generate?
BOK Financial Corporation (BOKF) generated $1.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. BOKF returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.7% yield) and share repurchases ($94M TTM).