Upside case
Bull case
$289+92.2%
WTFC would need investors to value it at roughly 22x earnings — about 11x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
22
analysts
15 bullish · 0 bearish · 22 covering WTFC
Strong Buy
1
Buy
14
Hold
7
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$175
+16.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$113 – $289
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
22
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
11.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.1B
WTFC price targets
Three scenarios for where WTFC stock could go
Current
~$150
Confidence
64 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $150
Bear
$113
Base
$170
Bull
$289
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$170+13.3%
At 13x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$113-24.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push WTFC down roughly 25% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Wintrust Financial Corporation
WTFC · NASDAQFinancial ServicesBanks - RegionalDecember year-end
Wintrust Financial Corporation is a diversified financial holding company operating primarily in the Chicago metropolitan area and surrounding Midwest regions. It generates revenue through three main segments: Community Banking (roughly 70% of net revenue), Specialty Finance (about 20%), and Wealth Management (approximately 10%), with income coming from net interest margin on loans and deposits, fees, and wealth management services. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep community banking roots—operating multiple local bank charters under one holding company—which allows for localized decision-making while benefiting from the scale and efficiency of a larger regional institution.
Market Cap
$10.1B
Net Income TTM
$824M
WTFC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
73%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
64%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q4 2025
EPS
$3.06/$2.63
Revenue
$698M/$689M
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.15/$2.93
Revenue
$714M/$702M
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.30/—
Revenue
$1.1B/—
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.22/$2.96
Revenue
$713M/$707M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $3.06/$2.63 | +16.3% | $698M/$689M | +1.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.15/$2.93 | +7.5% | $714M/$702M | +1.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.30/— | — | $1.1B/— | — |
| Q2 2026 | $3.22/$2.96 | +8.8% | $713M/$707M | +0.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.1B
-3.0% YoY
FY2
$4.5B
+8.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$12.82
+5.3% YoY
FY2
$13.09
+2.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$915M
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
WTFC beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
WTFC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $397M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Wealth Management
36.8%
+12.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Wealth Management is the largest disclosed segment at 36.8% of FY 2024 revenue, up 12.0% YoY.
WTFC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $148 — implies -0.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
0.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
WTFC
13.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
48% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
WTFC
13.0x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
In line with benchmark
vs WTFC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
13.0x
vs
5Y Average
11.3x
+15% premium
Forward PE
11.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
-39%
Financial Services
10.4x
+11%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
13.0x
S&P 500
25.1x
-48%
Financial Services
13.3x
-2%
5Y Avg
11.3x
+15%
PEG Ratio
0.66x
S&P 500
1.72x
-62%
Financial Services
1.01x
-35%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
-23%
Financial Services
11.4x
+2%
5Y Avg
7.2x
+61%
Price/FCF
11.1x
S&P 500
21.1x
-48%
Financial Services
10.6x
+5%
5Y Avg
8.0x
+38%
Price/Sales
2.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
-24%
Financial Services
2.2x
+7%
5Y Avg
2.2x
+7%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Financial Services
2.70%
—
5Y Avg
1.99%
—
| Metric | WTFC | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg WTFC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 11.6x | 19.1x-39% | 10.4x+11% | — |
| Trailing PE | 13.0x | 25.1x-48% | 13.3x | 11.3x+15% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.66x | 1.72x-62% | 1.01x-35% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.7x | 15.2x-23% | 11.4x | 7.2x+61% |
| Price/FCF | 11.1x | 21.1x-48% | 10.6x | 8.0x+38% |
| Price/Sales | 2.4x | 3.1x-24% | 2.2x | 2.2x |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 2.70% | 1.99% |
WTFC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolWTFC Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
WTFC generates 11.3% ROE and 1.2% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$12.18
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
11.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$468M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$4.0B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
11.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
67M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageWTFC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Asset Quality Deterioration
Wintrust Financial faces potential deterioration in asset quality, which could significantly impact its financial stability. The increase in net charge-offs indicates asset quality pressures, potentially leading to higher funding costs and reduced profitability.
High Risk
Deposit Base Stability
Concerns about the stability of Wintrust's deposit base pose a near-term risk. This instability could lead to higher funding costs, which would adversely affect the company's profitability.
Medium
Revenue Growth Slowdown
Wintrust Financial has experienced a slowdown in demand, with its recent annualized revenue growth falling below its five-year trend. This trend could hinder the company's ability to expand and maintain profitability.
Medium
Earnings Per Share Decline
The company's recent EPS growth has been weaker than its revenue growth, indicating a decrease in profitability on a per-share basis. This trend raises concerns about the company's ability to deliver value to shareholders.
Medium
High Interest Expenses
As a financial firm, Wintrust relies on leverage, and high interest expenses can increase risk. This reliance on borrowed funds could strain profitability, especially in a rising interest rate environment.
Lower
Tier 1 Capital Ratio Risks
Wintrust's average Tier 1 capital ratio over the last two years has been around 9.8-9.9%, which is within regulatory requirements but could be considered potentially unsafe in the event of a significant economic downturn.
Lower
Macroeconomic Headwinds
Factors such as yield curve pressures and overall credit deterioration in the economy can limit Wintrust's upside potential. These macroeconomic challenges may affect the company's growth and profitability.
Lower
Negative Insider Sentiment
Insider sentiment for WTFC is currently negative, driven by significant open-market selling from key executives. This could indicate a lack of confidence in the company's future performance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why WTFC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Earnings Growth and Profitability
Wintrust has demonstrated a history of earnings growth, with a five-year annualized growth rate of 14.6%. In Q1 2026, the company reported record net income, up 20% year-over-year, beating analyst expectations.
Improving Cost Efficiency
The company has seen improvements in its cost-to-income ratio, which fell to 53.45% in Q1 2026 from 55.4% in the trailing period. This indicates efficient management of expenses relative to revenue.
Attractive Valuation
WTFC shares are trading significantly below their discounted cash flow (DCF) fair value, with one estimate placing it at $265.05 compared to a share price around $150.26. This suggests a potential upside of approximately 43.3%.
Loan and Deposit Growth
Wintrust has experienced solid growth in both deposits and loans, with projections indicating 6%-7% year-over-year increases in loans and deposits through 2026/27. This growth is supported by strong organic deposit growth and commercial loan expansion.
Diversified Business Model
The wealth management segment, managing approximately $45.9 billion in assets, provides a recurring fee stream that reduces reliance on interest rate fluctuations. This diversification enhances the stability of Wintrust's revenue.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
WTFC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$150.46
52W Range Position
75%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$113.39
+32.7% from the low
52-Week High
$162.96
-7.7% from the high
1 Month
+7.21%
3 Month
-4.76%
YTD
+5.5%
1 Year
+30.6%
3Y CAGR
+32.0%
5Y CAGR
+13.9%
10Y CAGR
+11.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
WTFC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
11.6x
vs 10.7x median
+8% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-3.0%
vs +0.2% median
-1730% below peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WTF WTFC Wintrust Financial Corporation | $10.1B | 11.6x | -3.0% | — | Buy | +16.0% |
IBC IBCP Independent Bank Corporation | $690M | 9.4x | -3.2% | — | Hold | +13.4% |
FUL FULT Fulton Financial Corporation | $4.2B | 10.7x | +0.2% | — | Hold | +11.2% |
UMB UMBF UMB Financial Corporation | $10.0B | 10.3x | +33.2% | — | Buy | +14.8% |
WSF WSFS WSFS Financial Corporation | $3.8B | 11.8x | -5.2% | — | Hold | +3.9% |
BOK BOKF BOK Financial Corporation | $10.4B | 13.2x | +1.9% | — | Hold | -2.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
WTFC Dividend and Capital Return
WTFC does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.60
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
13Y
3Y Div CAGR
13.7%
5Y Div CAGR
12.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
67M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.10 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.00 | +11.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024 | $1.80 | +12.5% | 0.0% | 1.8% |
| 2023 | $1.60 | +17.6% | 0.0% | 2.2% |
| 2022 | $1.36 | +9.7% | 0.0% | 2.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsWTFC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 22 analysts covering the stock, 15 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 7 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $175, implying +16.0% from the current price of $150. The bear case scenario is $113 and the bull case is $289.
02What is the WTFC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for WTFC is $175 based on 22 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $185 (+23.0% from today), and the low-end target is $160 (+6.3%). The base case model target is $170.
03Is Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC) stock overvalued in 2026?
WTFC trades at 11.6x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for WTFC in 2026 are: (1) Asset Quality Deterioration — Wintrust Financial faces potential deterioration in asset quality, which could significantly impact its financial stability. (2) Deposit Base Stability — Concerns about the stability of Wintrust's deposit base pose a near-term risk. (3) Revenue Growth Slowdown — Wintrust Financial has experienced a slowdown in demand, with its recent annualized revenue growth falling below its five-year trend. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Wintrust Financial Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates WTFC will report consensus revenue of $4.1B (-3.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $12.82 (+5.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.5B in revenue.
06When does Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for WTFC is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Wintrust Financial Corporation generate?
Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC) generated $915M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. WTFC returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).