Upside case
Bull case
$142+154.9%
USB would need investors to value it at roughly 28x earnings — about 17x more generous than today's 11x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
U.S. Bancorp (USB) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
49
analysts
23 bullish · 3 bearish · 49 covering USB
Strong Buy
1
Buy
22
Hold
23
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$64
+14.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$40 – $142
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
49
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
10.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $86.5B
USB price targets
Three scenarios for where USB stock could go
Current
~$56
Confidence
58 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $56
Bear
$40
Base
$63
Bull
$142
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$63+13.2%
At 12x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$40-28.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push USB down roughly 28% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
U.S. Bancorp
USB · NYSEFinancial ServicesBanks - RegionalDecember year-end
U.S. Bancorp is a major U.S. bank holding company that provides traditional banking services — including lending, deposit-taking, and payment processing — to consumers, businesses, and institutions. It generates revenue primarily through net interest income from loans (about 60% of total revenue) and non-interest income from payment services, wealth management, and capital markets activities (roughly 40%). The company's competitive advantage stems from its efficient operations — consistently ranking among the best in cost management — and its strong regional banking franchise with deep customer relationships across its core markets.
Market Cap
$86.5B
Net Income TTM
$7.6B
USB Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.11/$1.07
Revenue
$7.0B/$7.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.22/$1.13
Revenue
$7.3B/$7.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.26/$1.19
Revenue
$7.4B/$7.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.18/$1.14
Revenue
$7.3B/$7.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.11/$1.07 | +3.7% | $7.0B/$7.0B | -1.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.22/$1.13 | +8.0% | $7.3B/$7.2B | +1.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.26/$1.19 | +5.9% | $7.4B/$7.3B | +0.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.18/$1.14 | +3.5% | $7.3B/$7.3B | +0.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$37.6B
-12.4% YoY
FY2
$39.4B
+4.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.07
+4.2% YoY
FY2
$5.22
+2.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$5.1B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
USB beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
USB Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $29.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Wealth Management And Investment Services
41.2%
+18.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Wealth Management And Investment Services is the largest disclosed segment at 41.2% of FY 2024 revenue, up 18.7% YoY.
USB Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $64 — implies +12.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
12.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
USB
12.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
52% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
USB
12.1x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
9% discount
vs USB 5Y Avg P/E
Today
12.1x
vs
5Y Average
12.1x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
10.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
-43%
Financial Services
10.4x
+5%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
12.1x
S&P 500
25.1x
-52%
Financial Services
13.3x
-9%
5Y Avg
12.1x
+0%
PEG Ratio
1.41x
S&P 500
1.72x
-18%
Financial Services
1.01x
+40%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
-25%
Financial Services
11.4x
0%
5Y Avg
10.1x
+13%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.1x
—
Financial Services
10.6x
—
5Y Avg
6.5x
—
Price/Sales
2.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-35%
Financial Services
2.2x
-9%
5Y Avg
2.2x
-10%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Financial Services
2.70%
—
5Y Avg
3.99%
—
| Metric | USB | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg USB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 10.9x | 19.1x-43% | 10.4x | — |
| Trailing PE | 12.1x | 25.1x-52% | 13.3x | 12.1x |
| PEG Ratio | 1.41x | 1.72x-18% | 1.01x+40% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.4x | 15.2x-25% | 11.4x | 10.1x+13% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.1x | 10.6x | 6.5x |
| Price/Sales | 2.0x | 3.1x-35% | 2.2x | 2.2x-10% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 2.70% | 3.99% |
USB trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolUSB Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
USB generates 11.5% ROE and 1.1% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.87
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
11.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$46.9B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$31.0B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
11.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
1.6B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageUSB Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Interest Rate Impact
Fluctuations in U.S. interest rates directly affect USB’s net interest income. Low rates compress profitability, while rapid rate hikes raise funding costs and can impair borrowers’ repayment ability, potentially increasing credit losses.
High Risk
Credit Loss Risk
USB’s consumer and commercial loan portfolio is exposed to economic cycles. A significant slowdown or rise in unemployment could trigger higher credit losses, eroding earnings and capital buffers.
High Risk
Deposit Competition
Competition for deposits can push up funding costs. If rivals offer higher rates, USB may lose deposits and turn to more expensive funding sources, squeezing its net interest margin.
High Risk
USB Device Risk
USB devices pose a serious cybersecurity threat, especially in OT environments. They can bypass firewalls, carry malware, and even cause physical damage, with amplified risk in air‑gapped systems.
High Risk
Basel III Capital
New regulations such as Basel III may require USB to hold additional capital, limiting share buybacks or dividend growth. Non‑compliance with data‑privacy laws like CCPA and CPRA could trigger substantial fines and reputational harm.
Medium
Stock Valuation
USB has been underperforming, reflected in its lowest relative valuation on a price‑to‑earnings and price‑to‑tangible book value basis in a decade, raising investor concerns about future upside.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why USB Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Fee Income Growth & Deposit Expansion
U.S. Bancorp’s fee income rose 5.3% quarter‑over‑quarter, while average deposits grew 1.8%. These gains signal expanding revenue streams and a strengthening customer base.
Robust Quarterly Earnings Beat
The bank recently posted earnings that surpassed analyst expectations, underscoring operational efficiency and solid financial health.
Attractive Dividend Yield
USB offers a steady income stream with a dividend yield of approximately 3.8%, appealing to income‑focused investors.
NFL Partnership Boosts Brand & Client Acquisition
The strategic NFL partnership enhances brand visibility and is expected to drive new client acquisition, potentially increasing future fee income.
Balance Sheet Optimization Drives Net Interest Margin
Strategic balance sheet optimization has expanded the net interest margin, reinforcing the bank’s earnings potential.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
USB Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$55.60
52W Range Position
72%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$40.89
+36.0% from the low
52-Week High
$61.19
-9.1% from the high
1 Month
+4.04%
3 Month
-5.94%
YTD
+3.1%
1 Year
+34.1%
3Y CAGR
+21.8%
5Y CAGR
-1.6%
10Y CAGR
+2.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
USB vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
10.9x
vs 12.0x median
-9% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-12.4%
vs -9.7% median
-28% below peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
USB USB U.S. Bancorp | $86.5B | 10.9x | -12.4% | — | Hold | +14.8% |
WFC WFC Wells Fargo & Company | $247.1B | 11.4x | -13.2% | — | Hold | +22.8% |
PNC PNC The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. | $89.6B | 12.0x | -8.9% | — | Hold | +14.0% |
TFC TFC Truist Financial Corporation | $65.7B | 11.0x | -16.2% | — | Buy | +15.2% |
CFG CFG Citizens Financial Group, Inc. | $27.8B | 12.4x | -9.7% | — | Buy | +12.5% |
FIT FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | $33.7B | 16.3x | +2.0% | — | Buy | +12.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
USB Dividend and Capital Return
USB does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.06
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
15Y
3Y Div CAGR
2.8%
5Y Div CAGR
4.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.6B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.52 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.04 | +3.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024 | $1.98 | +2.6% | 0.2% | 4.4% |
| 2023 | $1.93 | +2.7% | 0.1% | 4.5% |
| 2022 | $1.88 | +6.8% | 1.8% | 6.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsUSB Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is U.S. Bancorp (USB) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
U.S. Bancorp (USB) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 49 analysts covering the stock, 23 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 23 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $64, implying +14.8% from the current price of $56. The bear case scenario is $40 and the bull case is $142.
02What is the USB stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for USB is $64 based on 49 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $73 (+31.3% from today), and the low-end target is $60 (+7.9%). The base case model target is $63.
03Is U.S. Bancorp (USB) stock overvalued in 2026?
USB trades at 10.9x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for U.S. Bancorp (USB) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for USB in 2026 are: (1) Interest Rate Impact — Fluctuations in U. (2) Credit Loss Risk — USB’s consumer and commercial loan portfolio is exposed to economic cycles. (3) Deposit Competition — Competition for deposits can push up funding costs. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is U.S. Bancorp's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates USB will report consensus revenue of $37.6B (-12.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.07 (+4.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $39.4B in revenue.
06When does U.S. Bancorp (USB) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for USB is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does U.S. Bancorp generate?
U.S. Bancorp (USB) generated $5.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. USB returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).