Upside case
Bull case
$803+262.4%
PNC would need investors to value it at roughly 43x earnings — about 31x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. (PNC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
46
analysts
22 bullish · 1 bearish · 46 covering PNC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
22
Hold
23
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$253
+14.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$273 – $803
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
46
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $89.6B
PNC price targets
Three scenarios for where PNC stock could go
Current
~$222
Confidence
62 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $222
Bear
$273
Base
$331
Bull
$803
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$331+49.2%
At 18x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$273+23.1%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push PNC down roughly 23% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc.
PNC · NYSEFinancial ServicesBanks - RegionalDecember year-end
PNC Financial Services Group is a major US regional bank offering retail banking, corporate banking, and asset management services. It generates revenue primarily through net interest income from loans and deposits (about 60% of total revenue) and non-interest income from fees for treasury management, capital markets, and advisory services. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive branch network across key US markets and its strong corporate banking relationships built over decades.
Market Cap
$89.6B
Net Income TTM
$6.5B
PNC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+9.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.85/$3.55
Revenue
$5.7B/$5.6B
Q4 2025
EPS
$4.35/$4.05
Revenue
$5.9B/$5.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$4.88/$4.23
Revenue
$6.1B/$6.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$4.13/$3.93
Revenue
$6.2B/$6.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.85/$3.55 | +8.5% | $5.7B/$5.6B | +1.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.35/$4.05 | +7.4% | $5.9B/$5.8B | +1.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.88/$4.23 | +15.4% | $6.1B/$6.0B | +1.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.13/$3.93 | +5.1% | $6.2B/$6.2B | -1.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$30.7B
-8.9% YoY
FY2
$33.4B
+8.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$19.04
+15.6% YoY
FY2
$20.50
+7.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$5.4B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
PNC beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
PNC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2023
Total disclosed revenue $23.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Retail Banking 1
54.7%
+23.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Retail Banking 1 is the largest disclosed segment at 54.7% of FY 2023 revenue, up 23.0% YoY.
PNC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $201 — implies -9.0% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
9.0%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
PNC
16.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
36% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
PNC
16.1x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
+21% premium
vs PNC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
16.1x
vs
5Y Average
15.4x
+5% premium
Forward PE
12.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
-37%
Financial Services
10.4x
+15%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
16.1x
S&P 500
25.1x
-36%
Financial Services
13.3x
+21%
5Y Avg
15.4x
+5%
PEG Ratio
4.22x
S&P 500
1.72x
+146%
Financial Services
1.01x
+317%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
-8%
Financial Services
11.4x
+23%
5Y Avg
8.3x
+68%
Price/FCF
11.4x
S&P 500
21.1x
-46%
Financial Services
10.6x
+8%
5Y Avg
9.7x
+17%
Price/Sales
2.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
-15%
Financial Services
2.2x
+19%
5Y Avg
3.0x
-10%
Dividend Yield
2.86%
S&P 500
1.87%
+53%
Financial Services
2.70%
+6%
5Y Avg
3.29%
-13%
| Metric | PNC | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg PNC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.0x | 19.1x-37% | 10.4x+15% | — |
| Trailing PE | 16.1x | 25.1x-36% | 13.3x+21% | 15.4x |
| PEG Ratio | 4.22x | 1.72x+146% | 1.01x+317% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.0x | 15.2x | 11.4x+23% | 8.3x+68% |
| Price/FCF | 11.4x | 21.1x-46% | 10.6x | 9.7x+17% |
| Price/Sales | 2.7x | 3.1x-15% | 2.2x+19% | 3.0x-10% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.86% | 1.87% | 2.70% | 3.29% |
PNC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolPNC Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
PNC generates 11.1% ROE and 1.1% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$16.48
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
11.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$46.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$15.4B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
11.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.2%
Dividend
2.9%
Buyback
1.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.2B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$6.34
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
43.1%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
400M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pagePNC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Interest Rate Volatility
PNC is an asset‑sensitive bank; a decline in interest rates can compress its Net Interest Margin (NIM). The company’s earnings are heavily tied to the spread between loan and deposit rates, making it vulnerable to rate cuts.
High Risk
Economic Downturn & Capital Adequacy
A recession driven by inflation or policy uncertainty could strain PNC’s capital buffers. While the CET1 ratio is currently strong, adverse macro conditions may erode capital adequacy and trigger regulatory scrutiny.
High Risk
Credit Quality Deterioration
Macroeconomic pressures heighten the risk of loan defaults and credit losses. Rising delinquency rates could erode net interest income and increase provisions, impacting profitability.
Medium
Capital Markets Fee Volatility
PNC’s fee income from capital markets is subject to market swings. Volatility in trading and advisory fees can create earnings uncertainty, especially during periods of market stress.
Medium
Regulatory Capital Expectations
Regulators require large U.S. banks to hold capital well above minimums. Any tightening of capital rules or higher required CET1 ratios could constrain PNC’s growth or dividend policy.
Medium
Loan Profitability Decline
A drop in total loan yield signals weaker loan profitability. Lower yields can squeeze margins and reduce earnings growth, especially if loan volumes remain flat.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why PNC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust Revenue & Earnings Growth
In 2025, PNC’s revenue rose 7.48% year‑over‑year to $22.32 billion, while earnings climbed 19.65%. Capital markets fees increased 35% YoY, contributing an 8% lift in overall non‑interest income, and book value per share grew 14% from the prior year.
FirstBank Acquisition Accretion
The acquisition of FirstBank is expected to be earnings accretive, expanding PNC’s footprint in Colorado and Arizona and adding a low‑cost deposit base. The deal is also driving higher shareholder returns through increased stock buyback activity.
NIM Expansion via Repricing
A mechanical repricing of a substantial fixed‑rate asset book is projected to push Net Interest Margin above 3% in the coming quarters, boosting net interest income momentum.
AI‑Driven Operating Cost Savings
A significant AI automation program targeting operating expenses is anticipated to deliver further efficiency gains and cost savings, improving operating margin and free cash flow.
Strong Shareholder Return Program
PNC offers a dividend yield of approximately 3.4% and has increased its quarterly share repurchase program, signaling confidence in its financial health and a commitment to returning value to shareholders.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
PNC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$221.63
52W Range Position
72%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$163.31
+35.7% from the low
52-Week High
$243.94
-9.1% from the high
1 Month
+3.98%
3 Month
-7.08%
YTD
+4.8%
1 Year
+33.8%
3Y CAGR
+24.0%
5Y CAGR
+2.6%
10Y CAGR
+10.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
PNC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.0x
vs 11.0x median
+9% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-8.9%
vs -9.7% median
+8% above peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PNC PNC The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. | $89.6B | 12.0x | -8.9% | — | Hold | +14.0% |
USB USB U.S. Bancorp | $86.5B | 10.9x | -12.4% | — | Hold | +14.8% |
TFC TFC Truist Financial Corporation | $65.7B | 11.0x | -16.2% | — | Buy | +15.2% |
RF RF Regions Financial Corporation | $24.3B | 10.7x | -7.9% | — | Hold | +9.8% |
CFG CFG Citizens Financial Group, Inc. | $27.8B | 12.4x | -9.7% | — | Buy | +12.5% |
HBA HBAN Huntington Bancshares Incorporated | $26.0B | 11.2x | -1.5% | — | Buy | +24.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
PNC Dividend and Capital Return
PNC returns 4.2% total yield, led by a 2.86% dividend, raised 15 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 1.3%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
4.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.3%
Dividend Yield
2.86%
Payout Ratio
43.1%
How PNC Splits Its Return
Div 2.86%
Buyback 1.3%
Dividend 2.86%Buybacks 1.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$6.34
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
15Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.7%
5Y Div CAGR
7.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.2B
Estimated Shares Retired
5M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
400M
At 1.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $3.40 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $6.60 | +4.8% | — | — |
| 2024 | $6.30 | +3.3% | 1.5% | 4.8% |
| 2023 | $6.10 | +6.1% | 2.7% | 6.6% |
| 2022 | $5.75 | +19.8% | 8.0% | 11.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsPNC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. (PNC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. (PNC) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 46 analysts covering the stock, 22 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 23 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $253, implying +14.0% from the current price of $222. The bear case scenario is $273 and the bull case is $803.
02What is the PNC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for PNC is $253 based on 46 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $277 (+25.0% from today), and the low-end target is $206 (-7.1%). The base case model target is $331.
03Is The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. (PNC) stock overvalued in 2026?
PNC trades at 12.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. (PNC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for PNC in 2026 are: (1) Interest Rate Volatility — PNC is an asset‑sensitive bank; a decline in interest rates can compress its Net Interest Margin (NIM). (2) Economic Downturn & Capital Adequacy — A recession driven by inflation or policy uncertainty could strain PNC’s capital buffers. (3) Credit Quality Deterioration — Macroeconomic pressures heighten the risk of loan defaults and credit losses. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates PNC will report consensus revenue of $30.7B (-8.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $19.04 (+15.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $33.4B in revenue.
06When does The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. (PNC) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for PNC is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. generate?
The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. (PNC) generated $5.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. PNC returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.9% yield) and share repurchases ($1.2B TTM).