Upside case
Bull case
$387+490.4%
CFG would need investors to value it at roughly 75x earnings — about 62x more generous than today's 13x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Citizens Financial Group, Inc. (CFG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
38
analysts
31 bullish · 1 bearish · 38 covering CFG
Strong Buy
0
Buy
31
Hold
6
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$72
+10.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$72 – $387
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
38
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $28.3B
CFG price targets
Three scenarios for where CFG stock could go
Current
~$66
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $66
Bear
$72
Base
$117
Bull
$387
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$117+78.0%
At 23x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$72+9.0%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push CFG down roughly 9% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Citizens Financial Group, Inc.
CFG · NYSEFinancial ServicesBanks - RegionalDecember year-end
Citizens Financial Group is a regional bank holding company that provides retail and commercial banking services primarily in the Northeastern United States. It generates revenue through net interest income from loans and leases (about 70% of total revenue) and non-interest income from fees, service charges, and wealth management services. The company's competitive advantage lies in its established regional footprint—with deep customer relationships in its core markets—and its diversified banking platform serving both consumer and commercial clients.
Market Cap
$28.3B
Net Income TTM
$1.7B
CFG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-5.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.92/$0.88
Revenue
$2.0B/$2.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.05/$1.03
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.13/$1.10
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.13/$1.10
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.92/$0.88 | +4.2% | $2.0B/$2.0B | +1.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.05/$1.03 | +1.9% | $2.1B/$2.1B | +0.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.13/$1.10 | +2.7% | $2.2B/$2.2B | +0.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.13/$1.10 | +2.7% | $2.2B/$2.2B | +0.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$11.2B
-9.7% YoY
FY2
$11.8B
+5.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.90
+25.3% YoY
FY2
$5.39
+10.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.7B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
CFG beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CFG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $779M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Service Charges and Fees
53.5%
+2.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Service Charges and Fees is the largest disclosed segment at 53.5% of FY 2024 revenue, up 2.0% YoY.
CFG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $49 — implies -24.0% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
24.0%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CFG
21.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
14% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
CFG
21.7x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
+62% premium
vs CFG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
21.7x
vs
5Y Average
12.0x
+81% premium
Forward PE
12.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
-34%
Financial Services
10.5x
+21%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
21.7x
S&P 500
25.2x
-14%
Financial Services
13.4x
+62%
5Y Avg
12.0x
+81%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Financial Services
1.03x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
12.4x
S&P 500
15.3x
-19%
Financial Services
11.4x
+8%
5Y Avg
6.8x
+82%
Price/FCF
15.1x
S&P 500
21.3x
-29%
Financial Services
10.6x
+42%
5Y Avg
7.6x
+99%
Price/Sales
2.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-27%
Financial Services
2.3x
+2%
5Y Avg
2.0x
+16%
Dividend Yield
2.58%
S&P 500
1.88%
+38%
Financial Services
2.68%
-4%
5Y Avg
4.17%
-38%
| Metric | CFG | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg CFG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.7x | 19.1x-34% | 10.5x+21% | — |
| Trailing PE | 21.7x | 25.2x-14% | 13.4x+62% | 12.0x+81% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.03x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.4x | 15.3x-19% | 11.4x | 6.8x+82% |
| Price/FCF | 15.1x | 21.3x-29% | 10.6x+42% | 7.6x+99% |
| Price/Sales | 2.3x | 3.1x-27% | 2.3x | 2.0x+16% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.58% | 1.88% | 2.68% | 4.17% |
CFG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCFG Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
CFG generates 6.6% ROE and 0.8% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.91
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
6.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
3.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$11.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.2B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
6.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
7.4%
Dividend
2.6%
Buyback
4.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.4B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.70
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
51.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
454M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageCFG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Capital Adequacy
CFG’s Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio has slipped to just above the regulatory minimum, raising concerns about its buffer against losses. A further decline could trigger capital raising or asset sales, potentially impacting shareholder returns and credit ratings.
High Risk
Macro‑Economic Risk
A U.S. or global slowdown, higher inflation, and volatile credit markets could force CFG to increase credit provisions. Higher provisions would compress net interest margin and reduce earnings, especially if the 0.68% bad loan ratio rises.
High Risk
Credit Default Risk
CFG’s loan portfolio already contains 0.68% of total assets as bad loans (April 2019). A slowdown could push defaults higher, leading to larger write‑offs and eroding capital.
Medium
Regulatory Risk
Post‑2008 stricter banking rules and potential political shifts may compel CFG to adopt more conservative lending practices. This could limit loan growth and reduce fee income, affecting profitability.
Medium
Cyber & Tech Risk
System disruptions or data breaches could result in customer loss, regulatory fines, and reputational damage. A significant incident would likely increase operating costs and erode trust in CFG’s digital platforms.
Medium
Physical Risk
Earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, and pandemics can disrupt operations and damage assets. Such events could impair service delivery and increase insurance costs, negatively impacting earnings.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CFG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Strong Analyst Consensus
A majority of Wall Street analysts hold 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy' ratings on CFG, indicating widespread confidence in the bank’s prospects. This consensus supports a bullish outlook and aligns with recent positive earnings trends.
Revenue & Net Income CAGR
CFG has delivered a 4% compound annual growth rate in revenue over the past 13 years and is projected to achieve a 22% CAGR in net income over the next three years. These growth rates underscore the bank’s expanding profitability base.
EPS Momentum & Earnings Outlook
Trailing EPS rose from $3.04 to $3.90 in FY 2025, reflecting a 16.1% annual earnings growth projection and an 11.8% revenue growth forecast. This upward trajectory positions CFG for continued earnings expansion.
Strategic Cost Efficiency & Private Banking Expansion
CFG’s initiatives in cost efficiencies and expansion of private banking are expected to drive double‑digit core earnings growth. The focus on private banking deposits has already contributed to stronger net interest income growth.
Capital Markets Growth & Profit Reinvestment
The bank plans to reinvest profits into capital markets expansion, a strategy characteristic of growth stocks. This reinvestment is anticipated to fuel further earnings growth and enhance shareholder value.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CFG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$65.62
52W Range Position
90%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$37.93
+73.0% from the low
52-Week High
$68.79
-4.6% from the high
1 Month
+6.86%
3 Month
-3.67%
YTD
+10.5%
1 Year
+71.8%
3Y CAGR
+36.6%
5Y CAGR
+6.0%
10Y CAGR
+11.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CFG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.7x
vs 11.7x median
+9% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-9.7%
vs -1.5% median
-556% below peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CFG CFG Citizens Financial Group, Inc. | $28.3B | 12.7x | -9.7% | — | Buy | +10.4% |
RF RF Regions Financial Corporation | $24.5B | 10.8x | -7.9% | — | Hold | +9.1% |
HBA HBAN Huntington Bancshares Incorporated | $26.3B | 11.4x | -1.5% | — | Buy | +22.5% |
KEY KEY KeyCorp | $24.5B | 12.2x | +1.2% | — | Buy | +4.0% |
MTB MTB M&T Bank Corporation | $33.4B | 11.7x | -8.1% | — | Hold | +9.3% |
FIT FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | $34.1B | 16.5x | +2.0% | — | Buy | +11.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CFG Dividend and Capital Return
CFG returns capital mainly through $1.4B/year in buybacks (4.8% buyback yield), with a modest 2.58% dividend — combining for 7.4% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
7.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
4.8%
Dividend Yield
2.58%
Payout Ratio
51.0%
How CFG Splits Its Return
Div 2.58%
Buyback 4.8%
Dividend 2.58%Buybacks 4.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.70
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
2.0%
5Y Div CAGR
2.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.4B
Estimated Shares Retired
21M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
454M
At 4.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.92 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.72 | +2.4% | — | — |
| 2024 | $1.68 | 0.0% | 6.8% | 10.7% |
| 2023 | $1.68 | +3.7% | 5.7% | 10.8% |
| 2022 | $1.62 | +3.8% | 0.8% | 5.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsCFG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Citizens Financial Group, Inc. (CFG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Citizens Financial Group, Inc. (CFG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 38 analysts covering the stock, 31 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 6 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $72, implying +10.4% from the current price of $66. The bear case scenario is $72 and the bull case is $387.
02What is the CFG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CFG is $72 based on 38 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $80 (+21.9% from today), and the low-end target is $65 (-0.9%). The base case model target is $117.
03Is Citizens Financial Group, Inc. (CFG) stock overvalued in 2026?
CFG trades at 12.7x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Citizens Financial Group, Inc. (CFG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CFG in 2026 are: (1) Capital Adequacy — CFG’s Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio has slipped to just above the regulatory minimum, raising concerns about its buffer against losses. (2) Macro‑Economic Risk — A U. (3) Credit Default Risk — CFG’s loan portfolio already contains 0. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Citizens Financial Group, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CFG will report consensus revenue of $11.2B (-9.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.90 (+25.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $11.8B in revenue.
06When does Citizens Financial Group, Inc. (CFG) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for CFG is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Citizens Financial Group, Inc. generate?
Citizens Financial Group, Inc. (CFG) generated $2.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. CFG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.6% yield) and share repurchases ($1.4B TTM).