Upside case
Bull case
$106+15.6%
USFD would need investors to value it at roughly 22x earnings — about 3x more generous than today's 19x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
25
analysts
19 bullish · 0 bearish · 25 covering USFD
Strong Buy
0
Buy
19
Hold
6
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$108
+17.7% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $106
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
25
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
19.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $23.6B
USFD price targets
Three scenarios for where USFD stock could go
Current
~$92
Confidence
59 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $92
Base
$119
Bull
$106
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$119+29.4%
At 25x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
US Foods Holding Corp.
USFD · NYSEConsumer DefensiveFood DistributionDecember year-end
US Foods is a major foodservice distributor that supplies fresh, frozen, and dry food products to restaurants, healthcare facilities, hotels, and other institutional customers across the United States. It generates revenue primarily through broadline distribution—selling a full range of food and non-food items to foodservice operators—which accounts for the vast majority of its sales, supplemented by its cash-and-carry business for smaller operators. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive national distribution network of 70+ broadline facilities, which provides scale efficiencies and reliable service to a diverse customer base.
Market Cap
$23.6B
Revenue TTM
$39.1B
Net Income TTM
$558M
Net Margin
1.4%
USFD Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.68/$0.69
Revenue
$9.4B/$9.4B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.19/$1.14
Revenue
$10.1B/$10.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.07/$1.04
Revenue
$10.2B/$10.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.04/$1.00
Revenue
$9.8B/$9.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.68/$0.69 | -1.9% | $9.4B/$9.4B | -0.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.19/$1.14 | +4.4% | $10.1B/$10.2B | -0.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.07/$1.04 | +2.9% | $10.2B/$10.2B | +0.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.04/$1.00 | +4.0% | $9.8B/$9.9B | -0.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$41.4B
+6.0% YoY
FY2
$43.7B
+5.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.36
+37.5% YoY
FY2
$3.81
+13.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$978M
FCF Margin: 2.5%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.82
Expected Revenue
$9.6B
USFD beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
USFD Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $39.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product One
35.4%
+8.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Product One is the largest disclosed segment at 35.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 8.1% YoY.
USFD Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $100 — implies +7.3% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
7.3%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
USFD
31.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+24% premium
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
USFD
31.3x
vs
Consumer Defensive
19.6x
+59% premium
vs USFD 5Y Avg P/E
Today
31.3x
vs
5Y Average
36.1x
13% discount
Forward PE
19.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
+1%
Consumer Defensive
14.6x
+32%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
31.3x
S&P 500
25.2x
+24%
Consumer Defensive
19.6x
+59%
5Y Avg
36.1x
-13%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Consumer Defensive
1.85x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
24.0x
S&P 500
15.3x
+57%
Consumer Defensive
11.4x
+110%
5Y Avg
14.9x
+61%
Price/FCF
24.6x
S&P 500
21.3x
+15%
Consumer Defensive
15.7x
+56%
5Y Avg
24.3x
+1%
Price/Sales
0.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-81%
Consumer Defensive
0.8x
-29%
5Y Avg
0.3x
+77%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Consumer Defensive
2.73%
—
5Y Avg
0.30%
—
| Metric | USFD | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg USFD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 19.3x | 19.1x | 14.6x+32% | — |
| Trailing PE | 31.3x | 25.2x+24% | 19.6x+59% | 36.1x-13% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.85x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.0x | 15.3x+57% | 11.4x+110% | 14.9x+61% |
| Price/FCF | 24.6x | 21.3x+15% | 15.7x+56% | 24.3x |
| Price/Sales | 0.6x | 3.1x-81% | 0.8x-29% | 0.3x+77% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 2.73% | 0.30% |
USFD trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolUSFD Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
USFD returns 3.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$39.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
17.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
3.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
1.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.44
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$978M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
2.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$41M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
5.3× FCF
~5.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
12.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.9%
Dividend
—
Buyback
3.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$926M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
230M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageUSFD Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
High Debt Load
US Foods carries a substantial debt of $5.01 billion, with a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.89x. This level of debt poses a significant financial risk, particularly during economic downturns, as it may limit the company's financial flexibility.
High Risk
Negative Tangible Book Value
The company has a negative tangible book value of -$1.96 billion, indicating that its liabilities exceed its physical assets when intangible assets are excluded. This situation raises concerns about the company's financial stability and asset management.
Medium
Competition
US Foods faces increased competition in the food distribution sector, which could pressure margins and market share. This competitive landscape may lead to pricing pressures and impact overall profitability.
Medium
Food Cost Volatility
Fluctuations in food costs can significantly impact US Foods' profitability. Given the company's reliance on stable food prices, any sharp increases could adversely affect margins and earnings.
Medium
Economic Downturns
The company's performance is susceptible to broader economic conditions, including inflation and the potential for a recession. Economic downturns can lead to reduced consumer spending and demand for food services.
Lower
Labor Disruptions
Potential labor disruptions pose a risk to US Foods' operations. Any significant labor strikes or shortages could impact the company's ability to maintain service levels and operational efficiency.
Lower
Insider Selling
Recent significant open-market selling by key executives has created a negative sentiment among insiders. This could signal a lack of confidence in the company's future performance.
Lower
Analyst Downgrades
The stock has experienced analyst downgrades, which may affect investor sentiment and lead to decreased demand for the shares. Such downgrades can create volatility in the stock price.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why USFD Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Analyst Ratings
A significant majority of analysts have a 'Buy' or 'Moderate Buy' rating on USFD stock, indicating strong market confidence. The consensus price target suggests considerable upside potential from current levels.
Robust Earnings Growth Projections
US Foods is expected to experience substantial earnings growth in the coming year, with projections indicating a significant increase in earnings per share. The company has also surpassed its long-range plan targets in adjusted EBITDA and adjusted earnings per share.
Market Share Gains and M&A Strategy
US Foods has consistently gained market share, particularly in the independent restaurant segment, and is expanding its private label brands. The company is pursuing a robust M&A pipeline and investing in technology, including AI and digital platforms, to enhance customer engagement.
Strong Financial Performance
The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth and improved profitability, with expanding EBITDA margins. US Foods also shows strong cash conversion, with operating cash flow significantly exceeding net income, which supports share buybacks and capital expenditures.
Defensive Stock Positioning
US Foods is considered a defensive stock, likely to perform well in challenging economic environments. Its business model and strategic initiatives position it to capitalize on market weaknesses.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
USFD Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$92.05
52W Range Position
72%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$66.62
+38.2% from the low
52-Week High
$102.13
-9.9% from the high
1 Month
+1.25%
3 Month
+1.90%
YTD
+23.3%
1 Year
+37.3%
3Y CAGR
+33.7%
5Y CAGR
+18.1%
10Y CAGR
+14.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
USFD vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
19.3x
vs 20.2x median
-5% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.0%
vs +6.1% median
-2% below peer median
Net Margin
1.4%
vs 1.9% median
-24% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
USF USFD US Foods Holding Corp. | $23.6B | 19.3x | +6.0% | 1.4% | Buy | +17.7% |
SYY SYY Sysco Corporation | $35.1B | 16.0x | +3.8% | 2.1% | Buy | +23.3% |
PFG PFGC Performance Food Group Company | $14.6B | 19.9x | +9.1% | 0.5% | Buy | +20.3% |
CHE CHEF The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. | $3.3B | 36.7x | +14.0% | 1.9% | Buy | +4.0% |
UNF UNFI United Natural Foods, Inc. | $3.3B | 20.2x | +2.4% | -0.2% | Hold | -23.4% |
WDF WDFC WD-40 Company | $4.2B | 35.2x | +6.1% | 14.4% | Hold | +42.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
USFD Dividend and Capital Return
USFD returns 3.9% annually — null% through dividends and 3.9% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
3.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.9%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$926M
Estimated Shares Retired
10M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
230M
At 4.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsUSFD Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 25 analysts covering the stock, 19 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 6 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $108, implying +17.7% from the current price of $92.
02What is the USFD stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for USFD is $108 based on 25 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $117 (+27.1% from today), and the low-end target is $94 (+2.1%). The base case model target is $119.
03Is US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) stock overvalued in 2026?
USFD trades at 19.3x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for USFD in 2026 are: (1) High Debt Load — US Foods carries a substantial debt of $5. (2) Negative Tangible Book Value — The company has a negative tangible book value of -$1. (3) Competition — US Foods faces increased competition in the food distribution sector, which could pressure margins and market share. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is US Foods Holding Corp.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates USFD will report consensus revenue of $41.4B (+6.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.36 (+37.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $43.7B in revenue.
06When does US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) report its next earnings?
US Foods Holding Corp. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $0.82 and revenue of $9.6B. Over recent quarters, USFD has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does US Foods Holding Corp. generate?
US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) generated $978M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 2.5%. USFD returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($926M TTM).