Upside case
Bull case
$155+68.6%
USFD would need investors to value it at roughly 33x earnings — about 13x more generous than today's 19x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
25
analysts
19 bullish · 0 bearish · 25 covering USFD
Strong Buy
0
Buy
19
Hold
6
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$106
+15.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$74 – $155
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
25
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
19.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $20.2B
USFD price targets
Three scenarios for where USFD stock could go
Current
~$92
Confidence
50 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $92
Bear
$74
Base
$118
Bull
$155
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$118+28.0%
At 25x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$74-19.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push USFD down roughly 19% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
US Foods Holding Corp.
USFD · NYSEConsumer DefensiveFood DistributionDecember year-end
US Foods is a major foodservice distributor that supplies fresh, frozen, and dry food products to restaurants, healthcare facilities, hotels, and other institutional customers across the United States. It generates revenue primarily through broadline distribution—selling a full range of food and non-food items to foodservice operators—which accounts for the vast majority of its sales, supplemented by its cash-and-carry business for smaller operators. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive national distribution network of 70+ broadline facilities, which provides scale efficiencies and reliable service to a diverse customer base.
Market Cap
$20.2B
Revenue TTM
$39.7B
Net Income TTM
$677M
Net Margin
1.7%
USFD Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+1.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.19/$1.14
Revenue
$10.1B/$10.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.07/$1.04
Revenue
$10.2B/$10.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.04/$1.00
Revenue
$9.8B/$9.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.78/$0.81
Revenue
$9.6B/$9.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.19/$1.14 | +4.4% | $10.1B/$10.2B | -0.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.07/$1.04 | +2.9% | $10.2B/$10.2B | +0.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.04/$1.00 | +4.0% | $9.8B/$9.9B | -0.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.78/$0.81 | -3.7% | $9.6B/$9.7B | -0.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$41.7B
+5.2% YoY
FY2
$43.5B
+4.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.45
+13.8% YoY
FY2
$3.71
+7.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$848M
FCF Margin: 2.1%
Next Earnings
August 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.36
Expected Revenue
$10.4B
USFD beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
USFD Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $39.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product One
35.4%
+8.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Product One is the largest disclosed segment at 35.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 8.1% YoY.
USFD Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $119 — implies +29.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
29.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
USFD
31.3x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+28% premium
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
USFD
31.3x
vs
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
+65% premium
vs USFD 5Y Avg P/E
Today
31.3x
vs
5Y Average
36.1x
13% discount
Forward PE
19.5x
S&P 500
18.8x
+4%
Consumer Defensive
14.2x
+37%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
31.3x
S&P 500
24.4x
+28%
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
+65%
5Y Avg
36.1x
-13%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Defensive
1.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
15.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
+1%
Consumer Defensive
11.1x
+38%
5Y Avg
13.7x
+11%
Price/FCF
21.1x
S&P 500
20.7x
+2%
Consumer Defensive
15.3x
+38%
5Y Avg
24.3x
-13%
Price/Sales
0.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
-83%
Consumer Defensive
0.9x
-42%
5Y Avg
0.3x
+51%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Consumer Defensive
3.06%
—
5Y Avg
0.30%
—
| Metric | USFD | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg USFD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 19.5x | 18.8x | 14.2x+37% | — |
| Trailing PE | 31.3x | 24.4x+28% | 18.9x+65% | 36.1x-13% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.3x | 15.2x | 11.1x+38% | 13.7x+11% |
| Price/FCF | 21.1x | 20.7x | 15.3x+38% | 24.3x-13% |
| Price/Sales | 0.5x | 3.1x-83% | 0.9x-42% | 0.3x+51% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 3.06% | 0.30% |
USFD trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolUSFD Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
USFD returns 4.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$39.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+3.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
17.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
3.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
1.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.03
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$848M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
2.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$41M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
6.7× FCF
~6.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
15.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.8%
Dividend
—
Buyback
4.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$976M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
220M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageUSFD Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Earnings and Revenue Risk
US Foods Holding Corp. faces potential downgrades in earnings and revenue estimates, as indicated by analyst ratings and stock price targets.
Medium
Operational Challenges
The company operates in the competitive Food Distribution sector, which may pose operational and margin pressures.
Lower
Regulatory and Compliance
As a foodservice distributor, US Foods is subject to regulatory risks, including food safety and supply chain compliance.
High Risk
Market Competition
US Foods competes with other leading foodservice distributors, which could impact its market share and profitability.
Medium
Customer Concentration
With approximately 250,000 customer locations, reliance on a broad customer base exposes the company to demand volatility.
Lower
Macroeconomic Sensitivity
Economic downturns or inflationary pressures could affect customer spending and US Foods' financial performance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why USFD Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong Buy Rating
US Foods Holding Corp. has a composite score of 78.4/100 in a quantitative model, placing it firmly in 'Strong Buy' territory, the highest conviction rating.
Steady Revenue Growth
The company recorded steady revenue growth, rising 33.7% from 2021 to 2025, indicating strong top-line performance.
Gross Profit Expansion
Gross profit expanded 5.05% year-over-year in 2025, supporting a stable gross margin near 17.4%, reflecting operational efficiency.
Net Income Surge
Net income surged 31.5% in 2025 with improved net margins, highlighting profitability despite mixed margin trends.
Food Distribution Focus
US Foods operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, specifically Food Distribution, a stable industry with consistent demand.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
USFD Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$91.91
52W Range Position
68%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$69.88
+31.5% from the low
52-Week High
$102.13
-10.0% from the high
1 Month
+12.02%
3 Month
+3.32%
YTD
+23.1%
1 Year
+22.1%
3Y CAGR
+29.6%
5Y CAGR
+20.3%
10Y CAGR
+14.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
USFD vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
19.5x
vs 22.4x median
-13% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.2%
vs +6.4% median
-18% below peer median
Net Margin
1.7%
vs 1.9% median
-9% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
USF USFD US Foods Holding Corp. | $20.2B | 19.5x | +5.2% | 1.7% | Buy | +15.4% |
SYY SYY Sysco Corporation | $37.7B | 17.2x | +4.2% | 2.1% | Buy | +14.9% |
PFG PFGC Performance Food Group Company | $16.3B | 22.4x | +6.4% | 0.5% | Buy | +13.2% |
CHE CHEF The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. | $3.9B | 42.7x | +7.5% | 1.9% | Buy | -12.7% |
UNF UNFI United Natural Foods, Inc. | $3.1B | 20.3x | +6.5% | -0.2% | Hold | -13.6% |
WDF WDFC WD-40 Company | $4.5B | 37.9x | +6.0% | 14.4% | Hold | +109.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
USFD Dividend and Capital Return
USFD returns 4.8% annually — null% through dividends and 4.8% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
4.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
4.8%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$976M
Estimated Shares Retired
11M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
220M
At 4.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsUSFD Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 25 analysts covering the stock, 19 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 6 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $106, implying +15.4% from the current price of $92. The bear case scenario is $74 and the bull case is $155.
02What is the USFD stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for USFD is $106 based on 25 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $117 (+27.3% from today), and the low-end target is $88 (-4.3%). The base case model target is $118.
03Is US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) stock overvalued in 2026?
USFD trades at 19.5x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for USFD in 2026 are: (1) Earnings and Revenue Risk — US Foods Holding Corp. (2) Market Competition — US Foods competes with other leading foodservice distributors, which could impact its market share and profitability. (3) Operational Challenges — The company operates in the competitive Food Distribution sector, which may pose operational and margin pressures. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is US Foods Holding Corp.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates USFD will report consensus revenue of $41.7B (+5.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.45 (+13.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $43.5B in revenue.
06When does US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) report its next earnings?
US Foods Holding Corp. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-06. Consensus expects EPS of $1.36 and revenue of $10.4B. Over recent quarters, USFD has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does US Foods Holding Corp. generate?
US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) generated $848M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 2.1%. USFD returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($976M TTM).