Upside case
Bull case
$184+77.4%
PFGC would need investors to value it at roughly 40x earnings — about 17x more generous than today's 22x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
25
analysts
23 bullish · 0 bearish · 25 covering PFGC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
23
Hold
2
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$117
+13.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$88 – $184
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
25
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
22.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $16.3B
PFGC price targets
Three scenarios for where PFGC stock could go
Current
~$104
Confidence
46 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $104
Bear
$88
Base
$140
Bull
$184
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$140+34.7%
At 30x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$88-15.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push PFGC down roughly 15% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Performance Food Group Company
PFGC · NYSEConsumer DefensiveFood DistributionJune year-end
Performance Food Group is a major foodservice distributor that supplies restaurants, convenience stores, and institutional customers across the United States. It generates revenue primarily through its Foodservice segment — which distributes fresh and frozen foods to restaurants — and its Vistar segment that focuses on candy, snacks, and convenience products, with both segments contributing roughly equal portions of total sales. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive national distribution network and scale, which allows it to efficiently serve a diverse customer base across multiple channels.
Market Cap
$16.3B
Revenue TTM
$66.7B
Net Income TTM
$329M
Net Margin
0.5%
PFGC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-1.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.55/$1.46
Revenue
$16.9B/$16.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.18/$1.21
Revenue
$17.1B/$16.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.98/$1.07
Revenue
$16.4B/$16.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.80/$0.78
Revenue
$16.3B/$16.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.55/$1.46 | +6.2% | $16.9B/$16.8B | +1.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.18/$1.21 | -2.5% | $17.1B/$16.9B | +1.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.98/$1.07 | -8.4% | $16.4B/$16.5B | -0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.80/$0.78 | +3.2% | $16.3B/$16.2B | +0.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$71.0B
+6.4% YoY
FY2
$74.3B
+4.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.74
+30.7% YoY
FY2
$3.10
+13.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.0B
FCF Margin: 1.5%
Next Earnings
August 12, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.61
Expected Revenue
$18.1B
PFGC beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
PFGC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $63.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Foodservice
53.4%
+15.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Foodservice is the largest disclosed segment at 53.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 15.9% YoY.
PFGC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $73 — implies -29.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
29.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
PFGC
47.5x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+94% premium
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
PFGC
47.5x
vs
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
+151% premium
vs PFGC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
47.5x
vs
5Y Average
61.3x
22% discount
Forward PE
22.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
+19%
Consumer Defensive
14.2x
+58%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
47.5x
S&P 500
24.4x
+94%
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
+151%
5Y Avg
61.3x
-22%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Defensive
1.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
15.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
+4%
Consumer Defensive
11.1x
+42%
5Y Avg
13.8x
+14%
Price/FCF
23.1x
S&P 500
20.7x
+12%
Consumer Defensive
15.3x
+51%
5Y Avg
41.8x
-45%
Price/Sales
0.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-92%
Consumer Defensive
0.9x
-71%
5Y Avg
0.2x
+42%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Consumer Defensive
3.06%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | PFGC | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg PFGC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 22.4x | 18.8x+19% | 14.2x+58% | — |
| Trailing PE | 47.5x | 24.4x+94% | 18.9x+151% | 61.3x-22% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.8x | 15.2x | 11.1x+42% | 13.8x+14% |
| Price/FCF | 23.1x | 20.7x+12% | 15.3x+51% | 41.8x-45% |
| Price/Sales | 0.3x | 3.1x-92% | 0.9x-71% | 0.2x+42% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 3.06% | — |
PFGC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolPFGC Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
Key financial metrics for PFGC are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$66.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+8.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
11.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
1.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
0.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.10
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.0B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
1.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$79M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$7.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
7.8× FCF
~7.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
7.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.5%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$76M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
157M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pagePFGC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Medium
Integration risks
Value investors are weighing PFGC's revenue guidance against potential integration risks, which could impact future performance.
High Risk
Negative EPS surprise
PFGC's Q4 2024 earnings report included a negative EPS surprise, indicating potential underlying financial challenges.
Medium
Valuation concerns
With a forward P/E of 14.2x, investors may question whether PFGC's valuation is justified given its risks.
High Risk
Multiple risk factors
PFGC disclosed 34 risk factors in its recent earnings report, highlighting significant operational and financial challenges.
Lower
Sector resilience risks
As a bellwether for retail distribution, PFGC faces sector-wide risks that could affect its long-term resilience.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why PFGC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Sales growth momentum
Performance Food Group reported rising sales to US$16,290.0 million in Q3 2026, up from US$15.31 billion a year earlier, indicating strong top-line growth.
Strategic segment momentum
Management highlighted strong momentum across all three business segments, including new wins in the Convenience business, signaling broad operational strength.
Margin resilience and expansion
The company's operational execution and margin resilience are key drivers, with disciplined capital allocation creating a flywheel effect for sustained growth.
Confidence in guidance
Management narrowed full-year 2026 net sales guidance to a slightly higher range, reflecting confidence in the company's performance trajectory.
Shareholder-friendly actions
The completion of a modest share buyback signals management's confidence and commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
Analyst bullish sentiment
Analysts have a Buy rating on PFGC with a $116 consensus target, implying a +19.1% upside, supported by the company's strategic momentum.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
PFGC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$103.62
52W Range Position
81%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$80.82
+28.2% from the low
52-Week High
$109.05
-5.0% from the high
1 Month
+7.78%
3 Month
+22.47%
YTD
+17.7%
1 Year
+21.9%
3Y CAGR
+23.6%
5Y CAGR
+17.1%
10Y CAGR
+15.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
PFGC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
22.4x
vs 20.3x median
+11% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.4%
vs +6.5% median
-1% below peer median
Net Margin
0.5%
vs 1.9% median
-74% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PFG PFGC Performance Food Group Company | $16.3B | 22.4x | +6.4% | 0.5% | Buy | +13.2% |
SYY SYY Sysco Corporation | $37.7B | 17.2x | +4.2% | 2.1% | Buy | +14.9% |
USF USFD US Foods Holding Corp. | $20.2B | 19.5x | +5.2% | 1.7% | Buy | +15.4% |
CHE CHEF The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. | $3.9B | 42.7x | +7.5% | 1.9% | Buy | -12.7% |
UNF UNFI United Natural Foods, Inc. | $3.1B | 20.3x | +6.5% | -0.2% | Hold | -13.6% |
CAS CASY Casey's General Stores, Inc. | $31.2B | 39.5x | +11.3% | 4.1% | Buy | +8.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
PFGC Dividend and Capital Return
PFGC returns 0.5% annually — null% through dividends and 0.5% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.5%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$76M
Estimated Shares Retired
737.3K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
157M
FAQ
7 questionsPFGC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 25 analysts covering the stock, 23 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 2 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $117, implying +13.2% from the current price of $104. The bear case scenario is $88 and the bull case is $184.
02What is the PFGC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for PFGC is $117 based on 25 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $123 (+18.7% from today), and the low-end target is $108 (+4.2%). The base case model target is $140.
03Is Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) stock overvalued in 2026?
PFGC trades at 22.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for PFGC in 2026 are: (1) Negative EPS surprise — PFGC's Q4 2024 earnings report included a negative EPS surprise, indicating potential underlying financial challenges. (2) Multiple risk factors — PFGC disclosed 34 risk factors in its recent earnings report, highlighting significant operational and financial challenges. (3) Integration risks — Value investors are weighing PFGC's revenue guidance against potential integration risks, which could impact future performance. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Performance Food Group Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates PFGC will report consensus revenue of $71.0B (+6.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.74 (+30.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $74.3B in revenue.
06When does Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) report its next earnings?
Performance Food Group Company is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-12. Consensus expects EPS of $1.61 and revenue of $18.1B. Over recent quarters, PFGC has beaten EPS estimates 33% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Performance Food Group Company generate?
Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) generated $1.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 1.5%. PFGC returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($76M TTM).