Upside case
Bull case
$165+77.5%
PFGC would need investors to value it at roughly 35x earnings — about 15x more generous than today's 20x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
25
analysts
23 bullish · 0 bearish · 25 covering PFGC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
23
Hold
2
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$112
+20.3% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $165
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
25
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
19.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $14.6B
PFGC price targets
Three scenarios for where PFGC stock could go
Current
~$93
Confidence
52 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $93
Base
$150
Bull
$165
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$150+61.5%
At 32x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Performance Food Group Company
PFGC · NYSEConsumer DefensiveFood DistributionJune year-end
Performance Food Group is a major foodservice distributor that supplies restaurants, convenience stores, and institutional customers across the United States. It generates revenue primarily through its Foodservice segment — which distributes fresh and frozen foods to restaurants — and its Vistar segment that focuses on candy, snacks, and convenience products, with both segments contributing roughly equal portions of total sales. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive national distribution network and scale, which allows it to efficiently serve a diverse customer base across multiple channels.
Market Cap
$14.6B
Revenue TTM
$66.7B
Net Income TTM
$329M
Net Margin
0.5%
PFGC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-1.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.55/$1.46
Revenue
$16.9B/$16.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.18/$1.21
Revenue
$17.1B/$16.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.98/$1.07
Revenue
$16.4B/$16.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.80/$0.77
Revenue
$16.3B/$16.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.55/$1.46 | +6.2% | $16.9B/$16.8B | +1.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.18/$1.21 | -2.5% | $17.1B/$16.9B | +1.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.98/$1.07 | -8.4% | $16.4B/$16.5B | -0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.80/$0.77 | +3.9% | $16.3B/$16.2B | +0.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$71.7B
+9.1% YoY
FY2
$79.1B
+10.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.03
+37.6% YoY
FY2
$3.52
+16.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.0B
FCF Margin: 1.5%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.77
Expected Revenue
$16.2B
PFGC beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
PFGC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $63.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Foodservice
53.4%
+15.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Foodservice is the largest disclosed segment at 53.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 15.9% YoY.
PFGC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $127 — implies +43.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
43.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
PFGC
42.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+69% premium
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
PFGC
42.6x
vs
Consumer Defensive
19.6x
+117% premium
vs PFGC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
42.6x
vs
5Y Average
61.3x
30% discount
Forward PE
19.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
+4%
Consumer Defensive
14.6x
+36%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
42.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
+69%
Consumer Defensive
19.6x
+117%
5Y Avg
61.3x
-30%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Consumer Defensive
1.85x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.7x
S&P 500
15.3x
-4%
Consumer Defensive
11.4x
+28%
5Y Avg
13.8x
+6%
Price/FCF
20.7x
S&P 500
21.3x
-3%
Consumer Defensive
15.7x
+32%
5Y Avg
41.8x
-50%
Price/Sales
0.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
-93%
Consumer Defensive
0.8x
-73%
5Y Avg
0.2x
+27%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Consumer Defensive
2.73%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | PFGC | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg PFGC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 19.9x | 19.1x | 14.6x+36% | — |
| Trailing PE | 42.6x | 25.2x+69% | 19.6x+117% | 61.3x-30% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.85x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.7x | 15.3x | 11.4x+28% | 13.8x |
| Price/FCF | 20.7x | 21.3x | 15.7x+32% | 41.8x-50% |
| Price/Sales | 0.2x | 3.1x-93% | 0.8x-73% | 0.2x+27% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 2.73% | — |
PFGC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolPFGC Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
Key financial metrics for PFGC are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$66.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+8.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
11.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
1.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
0.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.10
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.0B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
1.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$79M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$7.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
7.8× FCF
~7.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
7.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.5%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$76M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
157M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pagePFGC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Economic and Consumer Pressure
Economic downturns, inflation, and reduced consumer spending can negatively affect demand for PFGC's products. Lower-income consumers, a significant customer base, are particularly vulnerable to financial pressures, impacting sales in segments like Quick Service Restaurants (QSR).
High Risk
Debt Exposure
PFGC has a notable reliance on debt financing, with a Debt-to-Equity ratio of 1.45, which is considered high compared to industry peers. The company's interest expenses have surged, potentially affecting its ability to invest in growth initiatives.
Medium
Intense Competition
The food distribution industry is highly competitive, with aggressive pricing strategies from rivals, especially for large chain accounts. This competition can lead to margin erosion if PFGC is forced to lower prices to retain or win business.
Medium
Profitability and Margins
PFGC operates with relatively low gross profit margins (around 11.87%) and profit margins (around 0.52%), which are lower than many industry peers. The low margins necessitate higher volumes to compensate for costs.
Lower
Operational and Cybersecurity Risks
The company's extensive network of distribution centers and customer base exposes it to operational risks. Additionally, the risk of cybersecurity incidents is a noted concern, as highlighted in their SEC filings.
Lower
Lack of Exclusive Agreements
PFGC's performance is also subject to the risk of losing business to competitors due to the absence of exclusive service agreements with its customers.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why PFGC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Robust Financial Performance
PFGC has demonstrated significant revenue growth, with a 9.54% increase in fiscal year 2025, reaching $59.90 billion. Recent quarterly results show continued growth in net sales and case volume, particularly in the Independent Foodservice segment.
Strategic Focus on Independent Restaurants
Analysts at UBS have reiterated a 'Buy' rating, highlighting PFGC's exposure to independent restaurants as a key strength in the evolving foodservice landscape. This focus is seen as a competitive advantage, especially in light of industry shifts.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
The consensus among analysts is largely positive, with a 'Strong Buy' or 'Buy' rating from multiple sources. The average price target suggests a significant upside potential from current levels.
Operational Efficiency and Value-Added Services
PFGC's diverse product offerings and value-added services, such as menu development and operational strategy, position it well within the competitive food distribution industry. The company emphasizes operational efficiency and supply chain optimization.
Growth Outlook and Projections
Projections indicate continued revenue and earnings growth, with some analysts forecasting substantial revenue and earnings by 2029. The company's strategic execution and multi-year financial goals contribute to a compelling risk-reward proposition.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
PFGC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$92.88
52W Range Position
49%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$77.44
+19.9% from the low
52-Week High
$109.05
-14.8% from the high
1 Month
+8.04%
3 Month
-1.61%
YTD
+5.5%
1 Year
+14.6%
3Y CAGR
+14.9%
5Y CAGR
+11.5%
10Y CAGR
+13.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
PFGC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
19.9x
vs 20.2x median
-2% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+9.1%
vs +5.1% median
+77% above peer median
Net Margin
0.5%
vs 1.9% median
-74% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PFG PFGC Performance Food Group Company | $14.6B | 19.9x | +9.1% | 0.5% | Buy | +20.3% |
SYY SYY Sysco Corporation | $35.1B | 16.0x | +3.8% | 2.1% | Buy | +23.3% |
USF USFD US Foods Holding Corp. | $23.6B | 19.3x | +6.0% | 1.4% | Buy | +17.7% |
CHE CHEF The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. | $3.3B | 36.7x | +14.0% | 1.9% | Buy | +4.0% |
UNF UNFI United Natural Foods, Inc. | $3.3B | 20.2x | +2.4% | -0.2% | Hold | -23.4% |
CAS CASY Casey's General Stores, Inc. | $31.9B | 47.4x | +5.1% | 3.8% | Buy | -19.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
PFGC Dividend and Capital Return
PFGC returns 0.5% annually — null% through dividends and 0.5% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.5%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$76M
Estimated Shares Retired
822.6K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
157M
At 0.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsPFGC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 25 analysts covering the stock, 23 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 2 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $112, implying +20.3% from the current price of $93.
02What is the PFGC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for PFGC is $112 based on 25 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $123 (+32.4% from today), and the low-end target is $105 (+13.0%). The base case model target is $150.
03Is Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) stock overvalued in 2026?
PFGC trades at 19.9x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for PFGC in 2026 are: (1) Economic and Consumer Pressure — Economic downturns, inflation, and reduced consumer spending can negatively affect demand for PFGC's products. (2) Debt Exposure — PFGC has a notable reliance on debt financing, with a Debt-to-Equity ratio of 1. (3) Intense Competition — The food distribution industry is highly competitive, with aggressive pricing strategies from rivals, especially for large chain accounts. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Performance Food Group Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates PFGC will report consensus revenue of $71.7B (+9.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.03 (+37.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $79.1B in revenue.
06When does Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) report its next earnings?
Performance Food Group Company is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $0.77 and revenue of $16.2B. Over recent quarters, PFGC has beaten EPS estimates 33% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Performance Food Group Company generate?
Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) generated $1.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 1.5%. PFGC returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($76M TTM).