Upside case
Bull case
$105+43.6%
SYY would need investors to value it at roughly 23x earnings — about 7x more generous than today's 16x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Sysco Corporation (SYY) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
30
analysts
18 bullish · 3 bearish · 30 covering SYY
Strong Buy
0
Buy
18
Hold
9
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$90
+23.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$29 – $105
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
30
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
16.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $35.1B
SYY price targets
Three scenarios for where SYY stock could go
Current
~$73
Confidence
60 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $73
Bear
$29
Base
$91
Bull
$105
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$91+23.6%
At 20x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$29-60.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 10x multiple contraction could push SYY down roughly 61% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Sysco Corporation
SYY · NYSEConsumer DefensiveFood DistributionJune year-end
Sysco is the world's largest foodservice distributor, supplying restaurants, healthcare facilities, schools, and other food-away-from-home venues with food products, equipment, and supplies. It generates revenue primarily through food distribution—with fresh, frozen, and non-food categories—serving over 650,000 customer locations across its global network. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive scale, extensive distribution infrastructure, and deep customer relationships that create significant barriers to entry in the highly fragmented foodservice distribution industry.
Market Cap
$35.1B
Revenue TTM
$83.6B
Net Income TTM
$1.7B
Net Margin
2.1%
SYY Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+0.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.48/$1.39
Revenue
$21.1B/$21.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.15/$1.12
Revenue
$21.1B/$21.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.99/$0.98
Revenue
$20.8B/$20.8B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.94/$0.94
Revenue
$20.5B/$20.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.48/$1.39 | +6.5% | $21.1B/$21.0B | +0.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.15/$1.12 | +2.7% | $21.1B/$21.1B | +0.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.99/$0.98 | +1.4% | $20.8B/$20.8B | +0.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.94/$0.94 | -0.5% | $20.5B/$20.6B | -0.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$86.7B
+3.8% YoY
FY2
$91.4B
+5.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.23
+17.3% YoY
FY2
$4.61
+8.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.0B
FCF Margin: 2.4%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
SYY beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
SYY Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $81.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Fresh And Frozen Meats1
18.7%
+6.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
U.S. Foodservice Operations
71.0%
+2.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Fresh And Frozen Meats1 is the largest disclosed segment at 18.7% of FY 2025 revenue, up 6.2% YoY.
U.S. Foodservice Operations is the largest reported region at 71.0%, up 2.9% YoY.
SYY Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $127 — implies +71.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
71.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SYY
19.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
22% discount
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
SYY
19.7x
vs
Consumer Defensive
19.6x
In line with benchmark
vs SYY 5Y Avg P/E
Today
19.7x
vs
5Y Average
33.5x
41% discount
Forward PE
16.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
-16%
Consumer Defensive
14.6x
+9%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
19.7x
S&P 500
25.2x
-22%
Consumer Defensive
19.6x
+0%
5Y Avg
33.5x
-41%
PEG Ratio
0.36x
S&P 500
1.74x
-79%
Consumer Defensive
1.85x
-81%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
-24%
Consumer Defensive
11.5x
+1%
5Y Avg
14.7x
-21%
Price/FCF
19.7x
S&P 500
21.3x
-7%
Consumer Defensive
14.8x
+33%
5Y Avg
24.3x
-19%
Price/Sales
0.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
-86%
Consumer Defensive
0.8x
-48%
5Y Avg
0.6x
-23%
Dividend Yield
2.78%
S&P 500
1.87%
+49%
Consumer Defensive
2.73%
+2%
5Y Avg
2.53%
+10%
| Metric | SYY | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg SYY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 16.0x | 19.1x-16% | 14.6x | — |
| Trailing PE | 19.7x | 25.2x-22% | 19.6x | 33.5x-41% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.36x | 1.74x-79% | 1.85x-81% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.6x | 15.2x-24% | 11.5x | 14.7x-21% |
| Price/FCF | 19.7x | 21.3x | 14.8x+33% | 24.3x-19% |
| Price/Sales | 0.4x | 3.1x-86% | 0.8x-48% | 0.6x-23% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.78% | 1.87% | 2.73% | 2.53% |
SYY trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSYY Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
SYY 15.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 6.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$83.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+3.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
18.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
3.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
2.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.61
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.0B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
2.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
15.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.1B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$13.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
6.7× FCF
~6.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
80.7%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (15.7%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.3%
Dividend
2.8%
Buyback
3.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.3B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.04
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
54.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
479M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageSYY Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Debt Management & Credit Risk
Sysco’s leverage has risen sharply after acquiring Restaurant Depot, prompting a negative outlook from S&P Global Ratings. A sustained high debt level could trigger a credit rating downgrade, increasing borrowing costs and limiting capital flexibility.
High Risk
Product Liability & Recalls
The company faces significant exposure to product liability claims if its food products cause injury, illness, or death. Recalls can lead to large outlays, inventory write‑downs, reputational harm, and lost sales.
High Risk
Economic & Political Instability
Changes in laws and regulations, along with political and economic instability, can adversely affect Sysco’s operations, especially in its international markets. Such volatility may disrupt supply chains and reduce demand.
High Risk
Supply Chain & Labor Disruptions
Labor shortages and supply chain disruptions threaten Sysco’s extensive delivery network, squeezing margins. Delays or increased costs can erode profitability and customer satisfaction.
Medium
Pricing & Inflation Pressures
Rising energy costs and potential declines in consumer spending in the dining sector challenge Sysco’s pricing power. The firm must balance cost pass‑throughs to customers without losing business.
Medium
ERP Cost Uncertainty
Unplanned Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) costs could arise, hindering profit growth. Unexpected implementation or upgrade expenses may erode operating margins.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SYY Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Dominant U.S. Foodservice Distributor
Sysco holds 18% share of the $377B U.S. foodservice distribution market, making it the largest player. 70% of its revenue comes from U.S. foodservice operations, providing a stable and diversified revenue base.
Strategic Growth & Margin Expansion
The Sysco Reliance private‑label program and ongoing self‑help initiatives are expected to boost margins and accelerate case growth. Management projects mid‑to‑high single‑digit EPS accretion in year one post‑Restaurant Depot acquisition, with low‑to‑mid‑teens accretion in year two, plus significant cost synergies.
Strong Return Metrics & Capital Efficiency
Sysco consistently ranks in the top tiers for ROA, ROE, and ROIC among peers, reflecting efficient use of assets and equity. These high return metrics underpin the company’s financial strength and support sustainable growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SYY Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$73.33
52W Range Position
22%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$68.19
+7.5% from the low
52-Week High
$91.69
-20.0% from the high
1 Month
+0.12%
3 Month
-15.25%
YTD
+1.0%
1 Year
+4.7%
3Y CAGR
-1.2%
5Y CAGR
-3.0%
10Y CAGR
+4.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SYY vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
16.0x
vs 19.3x median
-17% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.8%
vs +6.0% median
-37% below peer median
Net Margin
2.1%
vs 1.9% median
+11% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SYY SYY Sysco Corporation | $35.1B | 16.0x | +3.8% | 2.1% | Buy | +23.3% |
USF USFD US Foods Holding Corp. | $23.6B | 19.3x | +6.0% | 1.4% | Buy | +17.7% |
PFG PFG Principal Financial Group, Inc. | $22.0B | 10.9x | -0.3% | 7.6% | Hold | -6.9% |
CHE CHEF The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. | $3.3B | 36.7x | +14.0% | 1.9% | Buy | +4.0% |
UNF UNFI United Natural Foods, Inc. | $3.3B | 20.2x | +2.4% | -0.2% | Hold | -23.4% |
SFM SFM Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. | $7.4B | 14.0x | +10.2% | 5.7% | Buy | +16.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SYY Dividend and Capital Return
SYY returns 6.3% annually — 2.78% through dividends and 3.6% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
6.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.6%
Dividend Yield
2.78%
Payout Ratio
54.7%
How SYY Splits Its Return
Div 2.78%
Buyback 3.6%
Dividend 2.78%Buybacks 3.6%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.04
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
37Y
3Y Div CAGR
3.0%
5Y Div CAGR
3.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.3B
Estimated Shares Retired
17M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
479M
At 3.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.63 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.10 | +4.0% | 3.4% | 6.1% |
| 2024 | $2.02 | +2.0% | 3.4% | 6.2% |
| 2023 | $1.98 | +3.1% | 1.3% | 4.0% |
| 2022 | $1.92 | +4.3% | 1.1% | 3.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsSYY Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Sysco Corporation (SYY) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Sysco Corporation (SYY) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 30 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 9 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $90, implying +23.3% from the current price of $73. The bear case scenario is $29 and the bull case is $105.
02What is the SYY stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SYY is $90 based on 30 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $100 (+36.4% from today), and the low-end target is $83 (+13.2%). The base case model target is $91.
03Is Sysco Corporation (SYY) stock overvalued in 2026?
SYY trades at 16.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Sysco Corporation (SYY) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SYY in 2026 are: (1) Debt Management & Credit Risk — Sysco’s leverage has risen sharply after acquiring Restaurant Depot, prompting a negative outlook from S&P Global Ratings. (2) Product Liability & Recalls — The company faces significant exposure to product liability claims if its food products cause injury, illness, or death. (3) Economic & Political Instability — Changes in laws and regulations, along with political and economic instability, can adversely affect Sysco’s operations, especially in its international markets. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Sysco Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SYY will report consensus revenue of $86.7B (+3.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.23 (+17.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $91.4B in revenue.
06When does Sysco Corporation (SYY) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for SYY is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Sysco Corporation generate?
Sysco Corporation (SYY) generated $2.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 2.4%. SYY returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.8% yield) and share repurchases ($1.3B TTM).