Upside case
Bull case
$127+61.5%
SYY would need investors to value it at roughly 28x earnings — about 11x more generous than today's 17x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Sysco Corporation (SYY) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
30
analysts
18 bullish · 3 bearish · 30 covering SYY
Strong Buy
0
Buy
18
Hold
9
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$90
+14.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$61 – $127
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
30
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
17.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $37.7B
SYY price targets
Three scenarios for where SYY stock could go
Current
~$79
Confidence
55 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $79
Bear
$61
Base
$96
Bull
$127
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$96+22.6%
At 21x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$61-22.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push SYY down roughly 23% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Sysco Corporation
SYY · NYSEConsumer DefensiveFood DistributionJune year-end
Sysco is the world's largest foodservice distributor, supplying restaurants, healthcare facilities, schools, and other food-away-from-home venues with food products, equipment, and supplies. It generates revenue primarily through food distribution—with fresh, frozen, and non-food categories—serving over 650,000 customer locations across its global network. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive scale, extensive distribution infrastructure, and deep customer relationships that create significant barriers to entry in the highly fragmented foodservice distribution industry.
Market Cap
$37.7B
Revenue TTM
$83.6B
Net Income TTM
$1.7B
Net Margin
2.1%
SYY Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+0.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.48/$1.39
Revenue
$21.1B/$21.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.15/$1.12
Revenue
$21.1B/$21.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.99/$0.98
Revenue
$20.8B/$20.8B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.94/$0.94
Revenue
$20.5B/$20.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.48/$1.39 | +6.5% | $21.1B/$21.0B | +0.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.15/$1.12 | +2.7% | $21.1B/$21.1B | +0.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.99/$0.98 | +1.4% | $20.8B/$20.8B | +0.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.94/$0.94 | -0.5% | $20.5B/$20.6B | -0.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$87.1B
+4.2% YoY
FY2
$89.6B
+2.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.19
+16.2% YoY
FY2
$4.54
+8.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.0B
FCF Margin: 2.4%
Next Earnings
August 4, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.51
Expected Revenue
$22.0B
SYY beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
SYY Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $81.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Fresh And Frozen Meats1
18.7%
+6.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
U.S. Foodservice Operations
71.0%
+2.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Fresh And Frozen Meats1 is the largest disclosed segment at 18.7% of FY 2025 revenue, up 6.2% YoY.
U.S. Foodservice Operations is the largest reported region at 71.0%, up 2.9% YoY.
SYY Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $106 — implies +35.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
35.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SYY
21.1x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
14% discount
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
SYY
21.1x
vs
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
+12% premium
vs SYY 5Y Avg P/E
Today
21.1x
vs
5Y Average
33.5x
37% discount
Forward PE
17.2x
S&P 500
18.8x
-9%
Consumer Defensive
14.2x
+21%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
21.1x
S&P 500
24.4x
-14%
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
+12%
5Y Avg
33.5x
-37%
PEG Ratio
0.39x
S&P 500
1.66x
-77%
Consumer Defensive
1.92x
-80%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
12.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
-19%
Consumer Defensive
11.1x
+10%
5Y Avg
14.7x
-17%
Price/FCF
21.2x
S&P 500
20.7x
+2%
Consumer Defensive
15.3x
+38%
5Y Avg
24.3x
-13%
Price/Sales
0.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
-85%
Consumer Defensive
0.9x
-47%
5Y Avg
0.6x
-18%
Dividend Yield
2.59%
S&P 500
1.91%
+36%
Consumer Defensive
3.06%
-15%
5Y Avg
2.53%
+2%
| Metric | SYY | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg SYY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 17.2x | 18.8x | 14.2x+21% | — |
| Trailing PE | 21.1x | 24.4x-14% | 18.9x+12% | 33.5x-37% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.39x | 1.66x-77% | 1.92x-80% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.2x | 15.2x-19% | 11.1x+10% | 14.7x-17% |
| Price/FCF | 21.2x | 20.7x | 15.3x+38% | 24.3x-13% |
| Price/Sales | 0.5x | 3.1x-85% | 0.9x-47% | 0.6x-18% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.59% | 1.91% | 3.06% | 2.53% |
SYY trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSYY Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
SYY 15.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 5.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$83.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+3.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
18.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
3.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
2.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.61
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.0B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
2.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
15.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.1B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$13.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
6.7× FCF
~6.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
80.7%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (15.7%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.9%
Dividend
2.6%
Buyback
3.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.3B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.04
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
54.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
479M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageSYY Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Production risks
Sysco disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report, with the most risks in the 'Production' category.
Medium
Stock price decline
AI models forecast a $75.76 target price for 2026, representing a -1.2% decline from the current $76.70.
Lower
Market competition
As a major food distributor, Sysco faces intense competition in serving restaurants, healthcare, and other venues.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SYY Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Market leadership in food distribution
Sysco is the global leader in foodservice distribution, serving restaurants, healthcare, educational facilities, and other venues with a wide range of products and services.
Strong revenue growth
Sysco reported rising sales to US$20,762 million in its fiscal 2026 second-quarter results, indicating robust demand and business expansion.
Defensive business model
Sysco operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, providing essential food distribution services that are resilient during economic downturns.
Scalable operations
The company benefits from scalable, high-margin operations, similar to Domino's, which supports profitability and growth.
Steady mid-single-digit growth
Sysco is positioned for consistent mid-single-digit growth, driven by its wide distribution moat and cash-generative model.
Raised earnings guidance
Sysco raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance, reflecting confidence in its financial performance and future prospects.
Diverse customer base
Sysco serves a broad range of customers, including restaurants, healthcare facilities, and educational institutions, reducing dependency on any single sector.
Comprehensive product offerings
Beyond food products, Sysco provides equipment and supplies for the foodservice and hospitality industries, enhancing its value proposition.
Commitment to customer success
Sysco is passionately committed to the success of its customers, suppliers, and associates, fostering long-term relationships and loyalty.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SYY Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$78.70
52W Range Position
45%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$68.19
+15.4% from the low
52-Week High
$91.69
-14.2% from the high
1 Month
+7.05%
3 Month
-4.62%
YTD
+8.4%
1 Year
+6.4%
3Y CAGR
+2.8%
5Y CAGR
+1.0%
10Y CAGR
+4.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SYY vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
17.2x
vs 19.5x median
-12% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.2%
vs +6.5% median
-35% below peer median
Net Margin
2.1%
vs 1.9% median
+11% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SYY SYY Sysco Corporation | $37.7B | 17.2x | +4.2% | 2.1% | Buy | +14.9% |
USF USFD US Foods Holding Corp. | $20.2B | 19.5x | +5.2% | 1.7% | Buy | +15.4% |
PFG PFG Principal Financial Group, Inc. | $23.7B | 11.7x | -0.2% | 7.6% | Hold | -9.8% |
CHE CHEF The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. | $3.9B | 42.7x | +7.5% | 1.9% | Buy | -12.7% |
UNF UNFI United Natural Foods, Inc. | $3.1B | 20.3x | +6.5% | -0.2% | Hold | -13.6% |
SFM SFM Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. | $7.6B | 14.4x | +7.7% | 5.7% | Buy | +13.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SYY Dividend and Capital Return
SYY returns 5.9% annually — 2.59% through dividends and 3.3% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.3%
Dividend Yield
2.59%
Payout Ratio
54.7%
How SYY Splits Its Return
Div 2.59%
Buyback 3.3%
Dividend 2.59%Buybacks 3.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.04
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
10Y
3Y Div CAGR
3.0%
5Y Div CAGR
3.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.3B
Estimated Shares Retired
16M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
479M
At 3.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.63 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.10 | +4.0% | 3.4% | 6.1% |
| 2024 | $2.02 | +2.0% | 3.4% | 6.2% |
| 2023 | $1.98 | +3.1% | 1.3% | 4.0% |
| 2022 | $1.92 | +4.3% | 1.1% | 3.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsSYY Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Sysco Corporation (SYY) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Sysco Corporation (SYY) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 30 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 9 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $90, implying +14.9% from the current price of $79. The bear case scenario is $61 and the bull case is $127.
02What is the SYY stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SYY is $90 based on 30 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $100 (+27.1% from today), and the low-end target is $83 (+5.5%). The base case model target is $96.
03Is Sysco Corporation (SYY) stock overvalued in 2026?
SYY trades at 17.2x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Sysco Corporation (SYY) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SYY in 2026 are: (1) Production risks — Sysco disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report, with the most risks in the 'Production' category. (2) Stock price decline — AI models forecast a $75. (3) Market competition — As a major food distributor, Sysco faces intense competition in serving restaurants, healthcare, and other venues. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Sysco Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SYY will report consensus revenue of $87.1B (+4.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.19 (+16.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $89.6B in revenue.
06When does Sysco Corporation (SYY) report its next earnings?
Sysco Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-04. Consensus expects EPS of $1.51 and revenue of $22.0B. Over recent quarters, SYY has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Sysco Corporation generate?
Sysco Corporation (SYY) generated $2.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 2.4%. SYY returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.6% yield) and share repurchases ($1.3B TTM).