Upside case
Bull case
$47+290.5%
VG would need investors to value it at roughly 37x earnings — about 28x more generous than today's 10x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Venture Global, Inc. (VG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
31
analysts
16 bullish · 1 bearish · 31 covering VG
Strong Buy
0
Buy
16
Hold
14
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$13
+5.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$7 – $47
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
31
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
9.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $23.6B
VG price targets
Three scenarios for where VG stock could go
Current
~$12
Confidence
30 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $12
Bear
$7
Base
$20
Bull
$47
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$20+64.1%
At 16x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$7-40.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push VG down roughly 40% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Venture Global, Inc.
VG · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamDecember year-end
Venture Global is a liquefied natural gas (LNG) company that develops, constructs, and operates natural gas liquefaction and export facilities. It makes money primarily through long-term LNG sales contracts—typically 20-year agreements—that provide stable revenue from its operational terminals, with additional income from spot market sales. The company's competitive advantage lies in its low-cost liquefaction model—using modular construction and standardized designs—which allows it to undercut traditional LNG project costs.
Market Cap
$23.6B
Revenue TTM
$13.8B
Net Income TTM
$2.6B
Net Margin
18.7%
VG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
14%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-50.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.16/$0.26
Revenue
$2.9B/$2.6B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.14/$0.18
Revenue
$3.1B/$2.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.16/$0.23
Revenue
$3.3B/$3.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.41/$0.35
Revenue
$4.4B/$4.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.16/$0.26 | -37.5% | $2.9B/$2.6B | +10.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.14/$0.18 | -23.9% | $3.1B/$2.9B | +5.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.16/$0.23 | -29.6% | $3.3B/$3.3B | +1.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.41/$0.35 | +18.5% | $4.4B/$4.4B | +0.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$18.2B
+32.3% YoY
FY2
$23.2B
+27.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.27
+29.9% YoY
FY2
$1.41
+11.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$6.8B
FCF Margin: -49.4%
Next Earnings
May 12, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.13
Expected Revenue
$4.0B
VG beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
VG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $13.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Liquefied Natural Gas
99.4%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
83.6%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Liquefied Natural Gas is the largest disclosed segment at 99.4% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 83.6%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
VG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $31 — implies +143.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
143.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
VG
14.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
45% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
VG
14.0x
vs
Energy
16.9x
17% discount
vs VG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
14.0x
vs
5Y Average
7.9x
+76% premium
Forward PE
9.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
-50%
Energy
13.2x
-28%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
14.0x
S&P 500
25.2x
-45%
Energy
16.9x
-17%
5Y Avg
7.9x
+76%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
3.8x
S&P 500
15.3x
-75%
Energy
8.1x
-53%
5Y Avg
2.9x
+33%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Energy
14.1x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
1.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
-45%
Energy
1.6x
+10%
5Y Avg
1.3x
+31%
Dividend Yield
1.47%
S&P 500
1.88%
-22%
Energy
2.97%
-50%
5Y Avg
2.59%
-43%
| Metric | VG | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg VG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 9.5x | 19.1x-50% | 13.2x-28% | — |
| Trailing PE | 14.0x | 25.2x-45% | 16.9x-17% | 7.9x+76% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.8x | 15.3x-75% | 8.1x-53% | 2.9x+33% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 14.1x | — |
| Price/Sales | 1.7x | 3.1x-45% | 1.6x | 1.3x+31% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.47% | 1.88% | 2.97% | 2.59% |
VG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 4 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolVG Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
VG 17.3% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 1.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$13.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+150.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
68.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
36.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
18.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.98
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$6.8B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-49.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
17.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.4B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$847M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
25.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.5%
Dividend
1.5%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.18
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
20.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
2.6B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageVG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Legal and Regulatory Issues
Venture Global faces ongoing legal and contractual challenges that cloud its immediate outlook. Resolving these issues is crucial for reestablishing customer confidence.
High Risk
Financial Leverage and Cash Flow
The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio and negative levered free cash flow, indicating financial pressure. Its cash flow profile is described as precarious due to heavy investment, with a deeply negative trailing twelve-month free cash flow.
High Risk
LNG Price Volatility
The financial outlook for Venture Global is negatively impacted by the significant decline in global LNG prices, jeopardizing performance. Forecasts predict a notable reduction in Adjusted EBITDA relative to prior guidance due to this exposure to price fluctuations.
Medium
Market Pricing Exposure
A significant portion of Venture Global's sales are exposed to market pricing, creating a downside risk to its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and cash flow estimates if margins decline.
Medium
Project Delays and Cost Overruns
Potential project delays and increased construction costs could further strain Venture Global's development plans and operational efficiency.
Medium
Valuation Concerns
While the stock may appear cheap on a trailing basis, its forward valuation implies significant growth deceleration. Some analysts consider the stock overvalued given its current trading price and market capitalization.
Lower
Operational Risks
Maintaining consistent operational efficiency is a key challenge for VG, which could impact overall performance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why VG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Leading LNG Exporter
With projects like CP2 Phase II, Venture Global is positioned to become a major U.S. LNG exporter. Global natural gas demand is projected to increase significantly, with LNG's share of this demand also expected to rise.
Energy Security
Venture Global's long-term contracts are seen as a vital bridge for Western energy security, especially as Europe diversifies away from Russian gas.
Expansion Plans
The company has ambitious capacity expansion plans, aiming for significant output by 2030 and beyond.
Financial Performance
Venture Global has reported strong revenue growth, with robust Q4 2025 earnings exceeding expectations.
Analyst Optimism
Analysts have a 'Buy' consensus rating for VG, with several recommending 'Strong Buy' and setting price targets that imply considerable upside potential.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
VG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$12.00
52W Range Position
45%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$5.83
+105.8% from the low
52-Week High
$19.50
-38.5% from the high
1 Month
-24.72%
3 Month
+21.21%
YTD
+70.5%
1 Year
+37.9%
3Y CAGR
-20.6%
5Y CAGR
-12.9%
10Y CAGR
-6.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
VG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
9.5x
vs 17.5x median
-46% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+32.3%
vs +10.2% median
+217% above peer median
Net Margin
18.7%
vs 11.3% median
+65% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VG VG Venture Global, Inc. | $23.6B | 9.5x | +32.3% | 18.7% | Buy | +5.1% |
LNG LNG Cheniere Energy, Inc. | $54.9B | 17.5x | +10.9% | 27.0% | Buy | +1.5% |
NFE NFE New Fortress Energy Inc. | $211M | — | +1.6% | -122.6% | Buy | +1962.8% |
NEX NEXT NextDecade Corporation | $2.0B | — | — | — | Hold | -6.3% |
GLN GLNG Golar LNG Limited | $5.7B | 68.8x | +25.1% | 16.7% | Buy | -3.0% |
ET ET Energy Transfer LP | $68.4B | 12.3x | +9.5% | 5.9% | Buy | -4.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
VG Dividend and Capital Return
VG returns 1.5% total yield, led by a 1.47% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
1.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
1.47%
Payout Ratio
20.6%
How VG Splits Its Return
Div 1.47%
Dividend 1.47%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.18
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
3.2%
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.6B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.02 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.07 | — | 0.0% | 2.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsVG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Venture Global, Inc. (VG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Venture Global, Inc. (VG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 31 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $13, implying +5.1% from the current price of $12. The bear case scenario is $7 and the bull case is $47.
02What is the VG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for VG is $13 based on 31 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $18 (+45.8% from today), and the low-end target is $8 (-33.3%). The base case model target is $20.
03Is Venture Global, Inc. (VG) stock overvalued in 2026?
VG trades at 9.5x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Venture Global, Inc. (VG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for VG in 2026 are: (1) Legal and Regulatory Issues — Venture Global faces ongoing legal and contractual challenges that cloud its immediate outlook. (2) Financial Leverage and Cash Flow — The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio and negative levered free cash flow, indicating financial pressure. (3) LNG Price Volatility — The financial outlook for Venture Global is negatively impacted by the significant decline in global LNG prices, jeopardizing performance. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Venture Global, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates VG will report consensus revenue of $18.2B (+32.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.27 (+29.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $23.2B in revenue.
06When does Venture Global, Inc. (VG) report its next earnings?
Venture Global, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-12. Consensus expects EPS of $0.13 and revenue of $4.0B. Over recent quarters, VG has beaten EPS estimates 14% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Venture Global, Inc. generate?
Venture Global, Inc. (VG) had a free cash outflow of $6.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 49.4%. VG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.5% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).