Upside case
Bull case
$44+120.6%
ET would need investors to value it at roughly 27x earnings — about 15x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Energy Transfer LP (ET) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
32
analysts
28 bullish · 0 bearish · 32 covering ET
Strong Buy
1
Buy
27
Hold
4
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$19
-4.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$8 – $44
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
32
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $68.4B
ET price targets
Three scenarios for where ET stock could go
Current
~$20
Confidence
51 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $20
Bear
$8
Base
$21
Bull
$44
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$21+4.0%
This is close to how the market is already pricing ET — at roughly 13x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$8-59.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 7x multiple contraction could push ET down roughly 59% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Energy Transfer LP
ET · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamDecember year-end
Energy Transfer LP is one of the largest midstream energy infrastructure companies in North America, operating an extensive network of pipelines, storage facilities, and processing plants. It generates revenue primarily through fee-based contracts for transporting, storing, and processing natural gas, natural gas liquids, and crude oil — with minimal commodity price exposure due to its toll-road-like business model. The company's key competitive advantage is its massive, strategically located network of interconnected assets that create significant economies of scale and high barriers to entry.
Market Cap
$68.4B
Revenue TTM
$82.6B
Net Income TTM
$4.9B
Net Margin
5.9%
ET Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-9.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 0 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.32/$0.33
Revenue
$19.2B/$22.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.28/$0.33
Revenue
$20.0B/$21.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.25/$0.37
Revenue
$25.3B/$24.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.35/$0.40
Revenue
$27.8B/$25.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.32/$0.33 | -2.7% | $19.2B/$22.5B | -14.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.28/$0.33 | -16.0% | $20.0B/$21.9B | -9.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.25/$0.37 | -32.9% | $25.3B/$24.0B | +5.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.35/$0.40 | -12.5% | $27.8B/$25.6B | +8.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$90.5B
+9.5% YoY
FY2
$91.5B
+1.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.44
+7.3% YoY
FY2
$1.40
-2.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.8B
FCF Margin: 4.7%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
ET beat EPS estimates in 0 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
ET Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $82.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Oil and Gas
30.7%
+8.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Oil and Gas is the largest disclosed segment at 30.7% of FY 2024 revenue, up 8.0% YoY.
ET Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $30 — implies +49.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
49.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ET
14.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
42% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
ET
14.7x
vs
Energy
16.9x
13% discount
vs ET 5Y Avg P/E
Today
14.7x
vs
5Y Average
10.6x
+39% premium
Forward PE
12.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
-35%
Energy
13.2x
-7%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
14.7x
S&P 500
25.2x
-42%
Energy
16.9x
-13%
5Y Avg
10.6x
+39%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
9.4x
S&P 500
15.3x
-38%
Energy
8.1x
+15%
5Y Avg
7.7x
+23%
Price/FCF
17.8x
S&P 500
21.3x
-17%
Energy
14.1x
+26%
5Y Avg
8.2x
+118%
Price/Sales
0.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-74%
Energy
1.6x
-47%
5Y Avg
0.6x
+46%
Dividend Yield
6.51%
S&P 500
1.88%
+247%
Energy
2.97%
+119%
5Y Avg
8.23%
-21%
| Metric | ET | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg ET |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.3x | 19.1x-35% | 13.2x | — |
| Trailing PE | 14.7x | 25.2x-42% | 16.9x-13% | 10.6x+39% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.4x | 15.3x-38% | 8.1x+15% | 7.7x+23% |
| Price/FCF | 17.8x | 21.3x-17% | 14.1x+26% | 8.2x+118% |
| Price/Sales | 0.8x | 3.1x-74% | 1.6x-47% | 0.6x+46% |
| Dividend Yield | 6.51% | 1.88% | 2.97% | 8.23% |
ET trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolET Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
ET returns 6.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$82.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-0.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
21.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
11.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
5.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.34
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.8B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
4.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$70.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
18.3× FCF
~18.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
10.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.5%
Dividend
6.5%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.29
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
96.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
3.4B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageET Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Debt & Interest Rate Risk
Energy Transfer LP carries approximately $59.8 billion of long‑term debt, making it sensitive to rising rates. Higher borrowing costs could increase refinancing expenses and squeeze free cash flow available for distributions, potentially affecting dividend sustainability.
High Risk
Regulatory & Environmental Risk
Operations face heightened oversight and activism, exemplified by legal challenges to the Dakota Access Pipeline and potential shutdowns. Climate policies such as carbon taxes or stricter methane regulations could further impact the company’s natural‑gas‑focused portfolio.
Medium
Commodity Price Exposure
While roughly 90% of revenue is fee‑based, segments tied to NGLs and crude oil are exposed to price swings. The 2020 oil price collapse demonstrated the vulnerability of these segments to downturns.
Medium
Project Execution & Capex Risk
The 2026 growth plan includes $5‑5.5 billion in capex. Delays or cost overruns in project implementation, along with rising logistics and inflation, could erode projected revenues and profitability.
Medium
Valuation & Investor Sentiment
ET trades at a discount to peers, partly due to investor distrust after a 2020 distribution cut and past management practices. The complex MLP structure may also deter some investors, affecting liquidity and valuation.
Lower
K‑1 Tax Filing Complexity
As an MLP, ET issues Schedule K‑1 forms instead of standard 1099s, complicating tax preparation for investors and potentially increasing compliance costs.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ET Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Stable Fee-Based Revenue
Energy Transfer’s midstream model generates the majority of its income from transportation and storage fees, insulating it from volatile commodity prices. Approximately 90% of its 2026 revenue is projected to come from fixed-rate contracts, providing predictable cash flow.
Natural Gas Demand Growth
Natural gas is expected to remain a core energy source for the next 2‑5 years, and Energy Transfer is positioned to capture this trend through its expanding natural gas infrastructure. The company’s strategic investments are aimed at meeting rising demand in key markets.
Data Center & AI Infrastructure Expansion
The firm is investing in infrastructure to support the growing energy needs of data centers and AI operations. Partnerships with data center providers and expansion of Texas natural gas capacity are designed to meet this demand.
Attractive Dividend Yield & Growth
Energy Transfer offers a high current dividend yield of roughly 7‑8%, appealing to income-focused investors. Management targets a long‑term annual distribution growth rate of 3‑5%.
Strategic Project Completions
Capital expenditures are focused on growth projects such as the Hugh Brinson Pipeline and Mustang Draw plants. Completion of these projects in late 2026 is expected to drive earnings growth and mark a turning point for the company.
Financial Strength & Debt Management
Despite substantial debt, Energy Transfer actively manages leverage within target ranges. Strong distributable cash flow provides a cushion for dividend payments and debt servicing.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ET Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$19.87
52W Range Position
84%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$15.80
+25.8% from the low
52-Week High
$20.66
-3.8% from the high
1 Month
+4.80%
3 Month
+10.76%
YTD
+19.8%
1 Year
+25.7%
3Y CAGR
+17.2%
5Y CAGR
+16.6%
10Y CAGR
+4.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ET vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.3x
vs 13.1x median
-6% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+9.5%
vs +6.1% median
+55% above peer median
Net Margin
5.9%
vs 18.9% median
-69% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ET ET Energy Transfer LP | $68.4B | 12.3x | +9.5% | 5.9% | Buy | -4.4% |
EPD EPD Enterprise Products Partners L.P. | $81.2B | 13.1x | -0.8% | 11.0% | Buy | -1.5% |
PAA PAA Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. | $15.6B | 13.8x | +6.1% | 3.2% | Buy | +1.9% |
WES WES Western Midstream Partners, LP | $16.8B | 12.9x | +6.5% | 29.9% | Hold | -0.6% |
MPL MPLX MPLX Lp | $56.5B | 12.6x | +6.2% | 37.5% | Buy | +8.2% |
KMI KMI Kinder Morgan, Inc. | $70.3B | 22.3x | +4.7% | 18.9% | Hold | +10.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ET Dividend and Capital Return
ET returns 6.5% total yield, led by a 6.51% dividend.
Dividend At RiskFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
6.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
6.51%
Payout Ratio
96.4%
How ET Splits Its Return
Div 6.51%
Dividend 6.51%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.29
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
14.8%
5Y Div CAGR
4.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
3.4B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.34 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.32 | +3.1% | 0.0% | 7.9% |
| 2024 | $1.28 | +3.2% | 5.2% | 12.1% |
| 2023 | $1.24 | +42.0% | 0.0% | 9.7% |
| 2022 | $0.87 | +42.6% | 0.0% | 8.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsET Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Energy Transfer LP (ET) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Energy Transfer LP (ET) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 32 analysts covering the stock, 28 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 4 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $19, implying -4.4% from the current price of $20. The bear case scenario is $8 and the bull case is $44.
02What is the ET stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ET is $19 based on 32 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $19 (-4.4% from today), and the low-end target is $19 (-4.4%). The base case model target is $21.
03Is Energy Transfer LP (ET) stock overvalued in 2026?
ET trades at 12.3x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Energy Transfer LP (ET) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ET in 2026 are: (1) Debt & Interest Rate Risk — Energy Transfer LP carries approximately $59. (2) Regulatory & Environmental Risk — Operations face heightened oversight and activism, exemplified by legal challenges to the Dakota Access Pipeline and potential shutdowns. (3) Commodity Price Exposure — While roughly 90% of revenue is fee‑based, segments tied to NGLs and crude oil are exposed to price swings. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Energy Transfer LP's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ET will report consensus revenue of $90.5B (+9.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.44 (+7.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $91.5B in revenue.
06When does Energy Transfer LP (ET) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for ET is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Energy Transfer LP generate?
Energy Transfer LP (ET) generated $3.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 4.7%. ET returns capital to shareholders through dividends (6.5% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).