Upside case
Bull case
$30+60.8%
ET would need investors to value it at roughly 21x earnings — about 8x more generous than today's 13x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Energy Transfer LP (ET) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
33
analysts
29 bullish · 0 bearish · 33 covering ET
Strong Buy
1
Buy
28
Hold
4
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$23
+22.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$14 – $30
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
33
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $64.5B
ET price targets
Three scenarios for where ET stock could go
Current
~$19
Confidence
45 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $19
Bear
$14
Base
$23
Bull
$30
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$23+22.0%
At 16x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$14-23.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push ET down roughly 23% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Energy Transfer LP
ET · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamDecember year-end
Energy Transfer LP is one of the largest midstream energy infrastructure companies in North America, operating an extensive network of pipelines, storage facilities, and processing plants. It generates revenue primarily through fee-based contracts for transporting, storing, and processing natural gas, natural gas liquids, and crude oil — with minimal commodity price exposure due to its toll-road-like business model. The company's key competitive advantage is its massive, strategically located network of interconnected assets that create significant economies of scale and high barriers to entry.
Market Cap
$64.5B
Revenue TTM
$89.4B
Net Income TTM
$5.6B
Net Margin
6.2%
ET Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-9.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 0 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.32/$0.33
Revenue
$19.2B/$22.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.28/$0.33
Revenue
$20.0B/$21.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.25/$0.37
Revenue
$25.3B/$24.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.35/$0.40
Revenue
$27.8B/$25.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.32/$0.33 | -2.7% | $19.2B/$22.5B | -14.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.28/$0.33 | -16.0% | $20.0B/$21.9B | -9.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.25/$0.37 | -32.9% | $25.3B/$24.0B | +5.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.35/$0.40 | -12.5% | $27.8B/$25.8B | +7.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$99.3B
+11.1% YoY
FY2
$109.0B
+9.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.58
-1.4% YoY
FY2
$1.62
+2.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$5.5B
FCF Margin: 6.2%
Next Earnings
August 5, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.38
Expected Revenue
$28.3B
ET beat EPS estimates in 0 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
ET Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $82.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Oil and Gas
30.7%
+8.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Oil and Gas is the largest disclosed segment at 30.7% of FY 2024 revenue, up 8.0% YoY.
ET Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $20 — implies +7.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
7.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ET
13.9x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
43% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
ET
13.9x
vs
Energy
15.5x
10% discount
vs ET 5Y Avg P/E
Today
13.9x
vs
5Y Average
10.6x
+31% premium
Forward PE
12.8x
S&P 500
18.8x
-32%
Energy
12.5x
+2%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
13.9x
S&P 500
24.4x
-43%
Energy
15.5x
-10%
5Y Avg
10.6x
+31%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
9.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
-40%
Energy
7.8x
+17%
5Y Avg
7.7x
+19%
Price/FCF
16.8x
S&P 500
20.7x
-19%
Energy
13.8x
+22%
5Y Avg
8.2x
+106%
Price/Sales
0.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-75%
Energy
1.4x
-45%
5Y Avg
0.6x
+37%
Dividend Yield
6.90%
S&P 500
1.91%
+261%
Energy
3.47%
+99%
5Y Avg
8.23%
-16%
| Metric | ET | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg ET |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.8x | 18.8x-32% | 12.5x | — |
| Trailing PE | 13.9x | 24.4x-43% | 15.5x-10% | 10.6x+31% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.1x | 15.2x-40% | 7.8x+17% | 7.7x+19% |
| Price/FCF | 16.8x | 20.7x-19% | 13.8x+22% | 8.2x+106% |
| Price/Sales | 0.8x | 3.1x-75% | 1.4x-45% | 0.6x+37% |
| Dividend Yield | 6.90% | 1.91% | 3.47% | 8.23% |
ET trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolET Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
ET returns 6.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$89.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+8.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
22.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
11.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
6.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.61
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$5.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
6.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$70.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
12.7× FCF
~12.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
11.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.9%
Dividend
6.9%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.29
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
96.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
3.4B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageET Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory Risks
Potential changes in energy policies and international regulations could impact operations and profitability.
Medium
Competitive Pressure
Benchmarking against peers like Enterprise Products Partners and Williams Companies indicates intense competition in the sector.
High Risk
Earnings Volatility
Analyst reports highlight concerns over revenue and earnings estimates, suggesting potential instability.
Medium
Market Sentiment
Stock price predictions and AI forecasts indicate uncertainty in future performance.
Lower
Operational Risks
Being a large player in energy engineering, operational disruptions could pose minor risks.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ET Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Strong financial performance
Energy Transfer LP reported robust first-quarter 2026 results with sales of US$27.77 billion and net income of US$1.25 billion, alongside an increase in common unit distributions.
Natural gas network expansion
The company's 2026 growth capital is focused on expanding its natural gas network, including projects linked to rising data center and power demand.
Deleveraging progress
Management is targeting a leverage range of 4.0-4.5x by early 2026 and has shown tangible efforts to reduce leverage in recent years, despite current elevated levels.
Bullish investor sentiment
A bullish thesis on Energy Transfer LP has been highlighted on platforms like WallStreetBets, reflecting positive investor sentiment.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ET Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$18.75
52W Range Position
57%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$16.18
+15.9% from the low
52-Week High
$20.70
-9.4% from the high
1 Month
-7.13%
3 Month
+0.48%
YTD
+13.0%
1 Year
+4.9%
3Y CAGR
+13.7%
5Y CAGR
+12.2%
10Y CAGR
+4.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ET vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.8x
vs 13.2x median
-3% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+11.1%
vs +5.0% median
+124% above peer median
Net Margin
6.2%
vs 18.9% median
-67% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ET ET Energy Transfer LP | $64.5B | 12.8x | +11.1% | 6.2% | Buy | +22.7% |
EPD EPD Enterprise Products Partners L.P. | $79.1B | 12.6x | +5.0% | 11.0% | Buy | +7.2% |
PAA PAA Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. | $15.1B | 13.5x | +4.4% | 2.5% | Buy | +13.8% |
WES WES Western Midstream Partners, LP | $16.9B | 12.4x | +7.9% | 29.9% | Hold | +7.7% |
MPL MPLX MPLX Lp | $57.7B | 13.2x | +8.8% | 37.5% | Buy | +6.0% |
KMI KMI Kinder Morgan, Inc. | $70.3B | 21.6x | +4.9% | 18.9% | Hold | +16.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ET Dividend and Capital Return
ET returns 6.9% total yield, led by a 6.90% dividend.
Dividend At RiskFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
6.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
6.90%
Payout Ratio
96.4%
How ET Splits Its Return
Div 6.90%
Dividend 6.90%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.29
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
14.8%
5Y Div CAGR
4.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
3.4B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.67 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.32 | +3.1% | 0.0% | 7.9% |
| 2024 | $1.28 | +3.2% | 5.2% | 12.1% |
| 2023 | $1.24 | +42.0% | 0.0% | 9.7% |
| 2022 | $0.87 | +42.6% | 0.0% | 8.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsET Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Energy Transfer LP (ET) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Energy Transfer LP (ET) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 33 analysts covering the stock, 29 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 4 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $23, implying +22.7% from the current price of $19. The bear case scenario is $14 and the bull case is $30.
02What is the ET stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ET is $23 based on 33 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $23 (+22.7% from today), and the low-end target is $23 (+22.7%). The base case model target is $23.
03Is Energy Transfer LP (ET) stock overvalued in 2026?
ET trades at 12.8x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Energy Transfer LP (ET) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ET in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory Risks — Potential changes in energy policies and international regulations could impact operations and profitability. (2) Earnings Volatility — Analyst reports highlight concerns over revenue and earnings estimates, suggesting potential instability. (3) Competitive Pressure — Benchmarking against peers like Enterprise Products Partners and Williams Companies indicates intense competition in the sector. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Energy Transfer LP's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ET will report consensus revenue of $99.3B (+11.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.58 (-1.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $109.0B in revenue.
06When does Energy Transfer LP (ET) report its next earnings?
Energy Transfer LP is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-05. Consensus expects EPS of $0.38 and revenue of $28.3B. Over recent quarters, ET has beaten EPS estimates 33% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Energy Transfer LP generate?
Energy Transfer LP (ET) generated $5.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 6.2%. ET returns capital to shareholders through dividends (6.9% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).