Upside case
Bull case
$211+43.5%
WMS would need investors to value it at roughly 35x earnings — about 11x more generous than today's 24x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
22
analysts
9 bullish · 3 bearish · 22 covering WMS
Strong Buy
0
Buy
9
Hold
10
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$188
+27.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$101 – $211
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
22
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
24.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.3B
WMS price targets
Three scenarios for where WMS stock could go
Current
~$147
Confidence
50 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $147
Bear
$101
Base
$160
Bull
$211
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$160+8.9%
This is close to how the market is already pricing WMS — at roughly 26x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$101-31.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 8x multiple contraction could push WMS down roughly 31% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc.
WMS · NYSEIndustrialsConstructionMarch year-end
Advanced Drainage Systems is a leading manufacturer of thermoplastic corrugated pipes and water management products for underground construction and infrastructure projects. It generates revenue primarily from pipe sales (~70% of revenue) and related drainage products like septic systems and allied products (~30%), serving residential, non-residential, agricultural, and infrastructure markets. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive product portfolio, manufacturing scale, and established distribution network that creates switching costs for contractors and engineers.
Market Cap
$11.3B
Revenue TTM
$3.1B
Net Income TTM
$426M
Net Margin
14.0%
WMS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+10.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.95/$1.75
Revenue
$691M/$797M
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.97/$1.64
Revenue
$850M/$801M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.27/$1.11
Revenue
$693M/$687M
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.07/$0.94
Revenue
$677M/$652M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.95/$1.75 | +11.4% | $691M/$797M | -13.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.97/$1.64 | +20.1% | $850M/$801M | +6.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.27/$1.11 | +14.4% | $693M/$687M | +0.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.07/$0.94 | +14.3% | $677M/$652M | +3.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.2B
+4.5% YoY
FY2
$3.3B
+4.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$6.09
+12.1% YoY
FY2
$6.46
+6.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$569M
FCF Margin: 18.7%
Next Earnings
August 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.10
Expected Revenue
$983M
WMS beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
WMS Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2026
Total disclosed revenue $98M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Intersegment Eliminations
100.0%
+160.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
93.7%
+5.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Intersegment Eliminations is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2026 revenue, up 160.2% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 93.7%, up 5.5% YoY.
WMS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $125 — implies -14.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
14.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
WMS
27.0x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+11% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
WMS
27.0x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
+6% premium
vs WMS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
27.0x
vs
5Y Average
24.5x
+11% premium
Forward PE
24.2x
S&P 500
18.8x
+29%
Industrials
21.2x
+14%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
27.0x
S&P 500
24.4x
+11%
Industrials
25.6x
+6%
5Y Avg
24.5x
+11%
PEG Ratio
1.69x
S&P 500
1.66x
+2%
Industrials
1.65x
+3%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
-6%
Industrials
13.9x
+2%
5Y Avg
13.6x
+5%
Price/FCF
19.8x
S&P 500
20.7x
-4%
Industrials
20.0x
-1%
5Y Avg
29.9x
-34%
Price/Sales
3.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+19%
Industrials
1.6x
+136%
5Y Avg
3.3x
+11%
Dividend Yield
0.49%
S&P 500
1.91%
-75%
Industrials
1.21%
-60%
5Y Avg
0.48%
+0%
| Metric | WMS | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg WMS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 24.2x | 18.8x+29% | 21.2x+14% | — |
| Trailing PE | 27.0x | 24.4x+11% | 25.6x | 24.5x+11% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.69x | 1.66x | 1.65x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.2x | 15.2x | 13.9x | 13.6x |
| Price/FCF | 19.8x | 20.7x | 20.0x | 29.9x-34% |
| Price/Sales | 3.7x | 3.1x+19% | 1.6x+136% | 3.3x+11% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.49% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 0.48% |
WMS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolWMS Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
WMS generates $569M in free cash flow at a 18.7% margin — 16.8% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 1.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$3.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+5.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
37.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
22.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
14.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.43
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$569M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
18.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
16.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
10.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$223M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.7× FCF
~2.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
22.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.3%
Dividend
0.5%
Buyback
0.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$92M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.72
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
13.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
77M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageWMS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Price Target Risk
Bear case scenario suggests a negative price target of $-17, indicating significant downside risk.
Medium
Financial Health
Investors should review fundamental analysis and financial health due to potential risks in revenue trajectory and margin path.
High Risk
Risk Factor Disclosure
The company disclosed 26 risk factors in its recent earnings report, highlighting multiple challenges.
Medium
Market Sentiment
Smart money sentiment and tech exposure analysis may reveal bearish trends or investor concerns.
Lower
Operational Risks
Shared folders and remote access risks are mentioned, though not directly tied to core business operations.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why WMS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Investor Day catalysts
Upcoming Investor Day on June 18 expected to reveal new financial targets, segment realignment details, and capital allocation strategy.
Infrastructure spending tailwinds
Company positioned to benefit from long-term growth in infrastructure spending, particularly in stormwater and wastewater management.
Margin expansion potential
Operational efficiency initiatives and broad product offerings support consistent profit margin improvement.
Market leadership position
Dominant player in HDPE pipe manufacturing with scale advantages and specialized expertise in water management solutions.
Strategic segment realignment
Post-National Diversified Sales reorganization into Stormwater and Wastewater segments expected to drive operational focus.
M&A growth strategy
Management likely to outline acquisition priorities as part of capital allocation plans.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
WMS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$147.12
52W Range Position
54%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$109.63
+34.2% from the low
52-Week High
$179.31
-18.0% from the high
1 Month
+8.75%
3 Month
+8.66%
YTD
-1.7%
1 Year
+30.2%
3Y CAGR
+9.4%
5Y CAGR
+7.5%
10Y CAGR
+18.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
WMS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
24.2x
vs 18.0x median
+35% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.5%
vs +2.6% median
+75% above peer median
Net Margin
14.0%
vs 13.2% median
+6% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WMS WMS Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. | $11.3B | 24.2x | +4.5% | 14.0% | Hold | +27.7% |
NVR NVR NVR, Inc. | $18.0B | 18.0x | +2.5% | 13.2% | Buy | +15.0% |
AAO AAON AAON, Inc. | $11.2B | 60.4x | +11.2% | 7.3% | Buy | -13.0% |
FBI FBIN Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc. | $5.1B | 13.4x | +0.1% | 6.1% | Hold | +24.0% |
TRE TREX Trex Company, Inc. | $4.9B | 28.1x | +5.1% | 16.3% | Hold | +2.8% |
PNR PNR Pentair plc | $12.0B | 13.9x | +2.6% | 16.0% | Hold | +44.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
WMS Dividend and Capital Return
WMS returns capital mainly through $92M/year in buybacks (0.8% buyback yield), with a modest 0.49% dividend — combining for 1.3% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 12 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.8%
Dividend Yield
0.49%
Payout Ratio
13.2%
How WMS Splits Its Return
Div 0.49%
Buyback 0.8%
Dividend 0.49%Buybacks 0.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.72
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
12Y
3Y Div CAGR
14.2%
5Y Div CAGR
14.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$92M
Estimated Shares Retired
625.1K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
77M
At 0.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.38 | — | 0.9% | 1.4% |
| 2025 | $0.70 | +12.9% | 0.8% | 1.4% |
| 2024 | $0.62 | +14.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% |
| 2023 | $0.54 | +14.9% | 8.2% | 8.8% |
| 2022 | $0.47 | +11.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsWMS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 22 analysts covering the stock, 9 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $188, implying +27.7% from the current price of $147. The bear case scenario is $101 and the bull case is $211.
02What is the WMS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for WMS is $188 based on 22 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $205 (+39.3% from today), and the low-end target is $170 (+15.6%). The base case model target is $160.
03Is Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) stock overvalued in 2026?
WMS trades at 24.2x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for WMS in 2026 are: (1) Price Target Risk — Bear case scenario suggests a negative price target of $-17, indicating significant downside risk. (2) Risk Factor Disclosure — The company disclosed 26 risk factors in its recent earnings report, highlighting multiple challenges. (3) Financial Health — Investors should review fundamental analysis and financial health due to potential risks in revenue trajectory and margin path. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates WMS will report consensus revenue of $3.2B (+4.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $6.09 (+12.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.3B in revenue.
06When does Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) report its next earnings?
Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-06. Consensus expects EPS of $2.10 and revenue of $983M. Over recent quarters, WMS has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. generate?
Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) generated $569M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 18.7%. WMS returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.5% yield) and share repurchases ($92M TTM).