Upside case
Bull case
$266+79.1%
WMS would need investors to value it at roughly 44x earnings — about 19x more generous than today's 24x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
22
analysts
8 bullish · 3 bearish · 22 covering WMS
Strong Buy
0
Buy
8
Hold
11
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$203
+36.3% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $266
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
22
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
24.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.6B
WMS price targets
Three scenarios for where WMS stock could go
Current
~$149
Confidence
50 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $149
Base
$177
Bull
$266
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$177+19.1%
At 29x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc.
WMS · NYSEIndustrialsConstructionMarch year-end
Advanced Drainage Systems is a leading manufacturer of thermoplastic corrugated pipes and water management products for underground construction and infrastructure projects. It generates revenue primarily from pipe sales (~70% of revenue) and related drainage products like septic systems and allied products (~30%), serving residential, non-residential, agricultural, and infrastructure markets. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive product portfolio, manufacturing scale, and established distribution network that creates switching costs for contractors and engineers.
Market Cap
$12.6B
Revenue TTM
$3.0B
Net Income TTM
$471M
Net Margin
15.7%
WMS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+12.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.03/$1.06
Revenue
$616M/$659M
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.95/$1.75
Revenue
$691M/$797M
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.97/$1.64
Revenue
$850M/$801M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.27/$1.11
Revenue
$693M/$687M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.03/$1.06 | -2.8% | $616M/$659M | -6.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.95/$1.75 | +11.4% | $691M/$797M | -13.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.97/$1.64 | +20.1% | $850M/$801M | +6.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.27/$1.11 | +14.4% | $693M/$687M | +0.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.1B
+3.0% YoY
FY2
$3.2B
+4.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$6.39
+6.3% YoY
FY2
$6.86
+7.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$577M
FCF Margin: 19.3%
Next Earnings
May 21, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.95
Expected Revenue
$652M
WMS beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
WMS Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Pipe Segment
57.7%
-1.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
93.3%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Pipe Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 57.7% of FY 2025 revenue, down 1.9% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 93.3%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
WMS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $191 — implies +29.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
29.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
WMS
25.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
In line with benchmark
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
WMS
25.8x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
In line with benchmark
vs WMS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
25.8x
vs
5Y Average
27.4x
6% discount
Forward PE
24.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
+28%
Industrials
20.8x
+18%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
25.8x
S&P 500
25.2x
+2%
Industrials
25.9x
-0%
5Y Avg
27.4x
-6%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Industrials
1.59x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
16.2x
S&P 500
15.3x
+6%
Industrials
13.9x
+17%
5Y Avg
14.2x
+14%
Price/FCF
34.3x
S&P 500
21.3x
+61%
Industrials
20.6x
+66%
5Y Avg
30.0x
+14%
Price/Sales
4.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+39%
Industrials
1.6x
+174%
5Y Avg
3.4x
+30%
Dividend Yield
0.43%
S&P 500
1.88%
-77%
Industrials
1.24%
-65%
5Y Avg
0.46%
-8%
| Metric | WMS | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg WMS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 24.5x | 19.1x+28% | 20.8x+18% | — |
| Trailing PE | 25.8x | 25.2x | 25.9x | 27.4x |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.59x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.2x | 15.3x | 13.9x+17% | 14.2x+14% |
| Price/FCF | 34.3x | 21.3x+61% | 20.6x+66% | 30.0x+14% |
| Price/Sales | 4.4x | 3.1x+39% | 1.6x+174% | 3.4x+30% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.43% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 0.46% |
WMS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolWMS Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
WMS generates $577M in free cash flow at a 19.3% margin — 20.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$3.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+1.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
38.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
22.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
15.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.01
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$577M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
19.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
20.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$463M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$982M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.7× FCF
~1.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
23.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.0%
Dividend
0.4%
Buyback
0.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$70M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.64
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
11.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
78M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageWMS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
End-market demand risk
Advanced Drainage Systems (WMS) may experience a softening in end-market demand, particularly in construction and infrastructure projects. This could lead to a significant reduction in demand for their products, impacting overall revenue.
High Risk
Debt and leverage concerns
WMS carries sizable absolute debt and volatile leverage metrics, which could constrain financial flexibility if cash generation weakens. The company's debt-to-equity ratio, while not explicitly stated as risky, suggests potential vulnerability, especially if it approaches or exceeds a ratio of 2.0.
Medium
Raw material cost volatility
The company faces risks related to higher resin and raw material costs, which could negatively impact profit margins. Fluctuations in these costs can significantly affect the company's bottom line, particularly in a competitive pricing environment.
Medium
Cyclical market exposure
WMS operates in cyclical end-markets, making it vulnerable to economic downturns. Although the company has shown resilience through pricing power and market share gains, a severe market contraction could still adversely affect revenue and profitability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why WMS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Consistent Revenue and Earnings Growth
Advanced Drainage Systems has shown consistent revenue growth, with fiscal year 2025 revenue at $2.90 billion, a 1.04% increase from the previous year. Analysts project revenue to reach $3.9 billion by 2029, indicating strong future growth prospects.
Strong Profitability Metrics
The company has reported significant expansion in its gross margin and adjusted EBITDA, driven by volume growth and an improved product mix. This profitability enhancement is supported by capital investments that have increased productivity.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
Analyst ratings for WMS stock are largely positive, with consensus ratings including 'Moderate Buy' and 'Strong Buy'. The average price targets suggest a significant upside potential from the current stock price.
Strategic Acquisitions for Growth
The $875 million acquisition of National Diversified Sales is expected to add substantial revenue and synergies, enhancing the company's market position. Such strategic acquisitions are pivotal for driving future growth.
Infrastructure Demand Mitigates Risks
Despite uncertainties in non-residential construction, infrastructure activity is on the rise, which helps mitigate potential demand slack. The company's solutions are essential for infrastructure projects, positioning it well in the market.
Investment in Innovation and Capacity
Management is committed to investing in innovation and capacity to support future growth. This focus on enhancing product offerings and operational capabilities is crucial for maintaining competitive advantage.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
WMS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$148.72
52W Range Position
59%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$104.69
+42.1% from the low
52-Week High
$179.31
-17.1% from the high
1 Month
+5.68%
3 Month
-15.20%
YTD
-0.6%
1 Year
+31.8%
3Y CAGR
+19.5%
5Y CAGR
+6.4%
10Y CAGR
+20.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
WMS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
24.5x
vs 16.9x median
+45% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.0%
vs +2.4% median
+26% above peer median
Net Margin
15.7%
vs 13.2% median
+20% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WMS WMS Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. | $12.6B | 24.5x | +3.0% | 15.7% | Hold | +36.3% |
NVR NVR NVR, Inc. | $16.9B | 16.9x | -1.0% | 13.2% | Buy | +22.5% |
AAO AAON AAON, Inc. | $8.0B | 49.6x | +19.7% | 7.5% | Buy | +21.1% |
FBI FBIN Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc. | $4.8B | 11.8x | -1.2% | 7.3% | Hold | +49.8% |
TRE TREX Trex Company, Inc. | $4.2B | 24.4x | +2.9% | 16.2% | Hold | +11.5% |
PNR PNR Pentair plc | $12.9B | 14.9x | +2.4% | 16.0% | Hold | +42.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
WMS Dividend and Capital Return
WMS returns 1.0% annually — 0.45% through dividends and 0.6% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.6%
Dividend Yield
0.45%
Payout Ratio
11.0%
How WMS Splits Its Return
Div 0.45%
Buyback 0.6%
Dividend 0.45%Buybacks 0.6%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.64
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
14.2%
5Y Div CAGR
14.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$70M
Estimated Shares Retired
470.2K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
78M
At 0.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.70 | +12.9% | 0.8% | 1.4% |
| 2024 | $0.62 | +14.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% |
| 2023 | $0.54 | +14.9% | 8.2% | 8.8% |
| 2022 | $0.47 | +11.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsWMS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 22 analysts covering the stock, 8 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 11 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $203, implying +36.3% from the current price of $149.
02What is the WMS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for WMS is $203 based on 22 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $215 (+44.6% from today), and the low-end target is $195 (+31.1%). The base case model target is $177.
03Is Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) stock overvalued in 2026?
WMS trades at 24.5x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for WMS in 2026 are: (1) End-market demand risk — Advanced Drainage Systems (WMS) may experience a softening in end-market demand, particularly in construction and infrastructure projects. (2) Debt and leverage concerns — WMS carries sizable absolute debt and volatile leverage metrics, which could constrain financial flexibility if cash generation weakens. (3) Raw material cost volatility — The company faces risks related to higher resin and raw material costs, which could negatively impact profit margins. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates WMS will report consensus revenue of $3.1B (+3.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $6.39 (+6.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.2B in revenue.
06When does Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) report its next earnings?
Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-21. Consensus expects EPS of $0.95 and revenue of $652M. Over recent quarters, WMS has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. generate?
Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) generated $577M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 19.3%. WMS returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.4% yield) and share repurchases ($70M TTM).